Private Passenger Auto Insurance in North Carolina:

Private Passenger Auto Insurance in North Carolina: Trends, Challenges & Comparisons with National & Regional Markets 2012 North Carolina Insurance Symposium UNC-Charlotte and Appalachian State University Charlotte, NC March 23, 2012 Download at www.iii.org/presentations Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & Economist Insurance Information Institute 110 William Street New York, NY 10038 Tel: 212.346.5520 Cell: 917.453.1885 bobh@iii.org www.iii.org

Presentation Outline Structure of the North Carolina Auto Insurance Market Comparisons with overall US market Auto Insurance Growth Analysis US, NC Average Premium/Expenditures Auto Insurance Growth Drivers Exposure, Pricing Factors Profitability Analysis NC vs. US and Nearby States NC Auto Claim Trends Catastrophe Impacts on Auto Line Regulatory Environment Report Card Q&A 2

Structure of North Carolina Private Passenger Auto Insurance Market Similarities Yet Some Big Differences with the US and Other States 3

Distribution of Direct Premiums Written by Segment/Line, 2010: US vs. NC Distribution Facts The Personal/Commercial and Home/Auto premium distribution in NC is similar to that of the US Personal/Commercial lines split has been about 50/50 for many years; Personal Lines overtook Commercial Lines in 2010 (US) Pvt. Passenger Auto is by far the largest line of insurance, is highly competitive and is currently the most important source of industry profits at the national level Billions of additional dollars in homeowners insurance premiums are written by state-run residual market plans Commercial Lines $226.8B/49% Homeowners $68.2B/15% US Pvt. Pass Auto $165.0B/36% Homeowners $1.9B/16% NC Commercial Lines $5.5B/47% Pvt. Pass Auto $4.4B/37% Sources: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute research. 4

Share of Insured Vehicles in the Involuntary Market, Top 10 States vs. US Overall, 2009 20% 19.80% 15% 10% 5% At 19.8%, North Carolina has by far the largest share of auto written through a residual market 7.6 times the share in 2 nd place MA and 21 times the US overall Fewer than 1% of vehicles nationally were insured through residual market plans in 2009, compared with nearly 20% in NC 0% 2.60% 1.84% 1.20% 0.97% 0.60% 0.93% 0.56% 0.14% 0.06% 0.06% NC MA MD RI NY HI NJ DC KS NH US North Carolina s Auto Insurance Market Is Anomalous Sources: AIPSO; Insurance Information Institute. 5

Number of Cars Insured In The Shared Market in NC, 2000-2009 and 2011* (000) 2,000 30% 1,800 1,600 1,400 21.3% 21.4% 21.9% 23.2% 24.2% 23.3% 23.2% 21.6% 20.5% 19.8% 1,200 1,000 800 600 1,220.9 1,271.9 1,333.1 1,449.9 1,553.5 1,546.4 1,583.5 1,506.5 1,442.5 1,392.8 1,136.3 400 200 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011* Shared Market Percent of Total Column 3 0% *As of Oct. 1, 2011 per North Carolina Reinsurance Facility memorandum dated Dec. 21, 2011 at www.ncrb.org. Source: Automobile Insurance Plans Service Office; North Carolina Reinsurance Facility. 6

Estimated Percentage of Uninsured Motorists by State, 2009 (1): Highest 25 States (2) 40% 28.0% 25.7% 23.9% 23.9% 23.5% 21.8% An estimated 13.5% of NC drivers are uninsured, similar to the US average of 13.8% but well above VA (10.8%) and SC (10.7%) 19.5% 17.8% 17.6% 16.3% 16.1% 16.0% 15.7% 15.7% 15.3% 15.2% 15.0% 14.9% 14.9% 14.9% 14.6% 13.8% 13.7% 13.5% 13.2% 13.0% 0% MS NM OK TN FL (3) AL MI KY RI IN WA AR GA OH DC CO CA IL MD TX WI US MO NC NV AK (1) Percentage of uninsured drivers, as measured by the ratio of uninsured motorists (UM) claims to bodily injury (BI) claims frequencies. (2) Rank calculated from unrounded data. (3) In Florida, compulsory auto laws apply to PIP and physical damage but no to third party bodily injury coverage. Source: Insurance Research Council. 7

Estimated Percentage of Uninsured Motorists by State, 2009 (1): Lowest 25 States (2) 20% 13.0% 12.9% 11.9% 11.5% 11.4% 11.2% 11.2% 10.9% 10.8% 10.8% 10.8% 10.7% 10.4% 10.3% 9.8% 9.5% 9.1% 8.6% 8.2% 7.9% 7.8% 7.1% 6.6% 5.4% 4.5% 4.5% 0% MN LA AZ IA MT HI NJ NH DE VA WV SC OR WY KS CT ND SD UT ID NE VT PA NY ME MA (1) Percentage of uninsured drivers, as measured by the ratio of uninsured motorists (UM) claims to bodily injury (BI) claims frequencies. (2) Rank calculated from unrounded data. Source: Insurance Research Council. 8

Private Passenger Auto: Growth Analysis Growth Trajectories Differ Substantially by Line, by State and Over Time 9

Private Passenger Auto Insurance Net Written Premium, 2000 2010 $ Billion $180 $160 $157.3 $159.6 $160.2 $159.1 $158.0 $156.6 $158.9 $151.2 $140 $120 $119.7 $128.0 $139.7 PP Auto premiums written have been basically flat in recent years to the weak economy impacting new vehicle sales, car choice, and increased price sensitivity among consumers, though growth is returning to the market $100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute. 10

Commercial Auto Insurance Net Written Premium, 2000 2010 $ Billion $27 $26.6 $26.7 $26.7 $25.4 $25.5 $24.6 $24 $23.7 $21.8 $21.8 $21 $18 $19.5 In contrast to flat PP Auto NPW, Commercial auto premiums are down 22.0% since 2005 due to soft market conditions in commercial lines and negative exposure trends $20.9 $15 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute. 11

Percent Change in DPW: Pvt. Pass. Auto by State, 2005-2010 Top 25 States 18.0 16.0 15.8 14.6 Texas was the fastest growing state between 2005 and 2010 Pecent change (%) 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 12.1 10.9 9.9 8.6 8.6 8.1 7.6 7.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 North Carolina s auto insurance market grew by 5.8% from 2005-2010 4.0 4.5 4.1 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.0 0 Sources: SNL Financial LC.; Insurance Information Institute. TX UT OK LA WY NM WA AK SC MT ND KS WI NC ID OR DE MS MO TN IA AL GA SD AR 12

Percent Change in DPW: Pvt. Pass. Auto by State, 2005-2010 Bottom 25 States Pecent change (%) 5.0 0-5.0-10.0-15.0 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.6-0.4-0.6-0.8-0.8-1.0-1.1-1.6-1.8-2.1 Massachusetts saw the biggest drop in premiums written, due in large part to recent reforms that increased competition and lowered overall rate levels -5.2-5.9-5.9-6.8-7.3-8.6-9.9-20.0-18.7-25.0 Sources: SNL Financial LC.; Insurance Information Institute. NV DC KY MD VA IL NJ WV NE FL US CT IN PA CO NY AZ CA HI OH MI MN VT RI NH ME MA 13

Private Passenger Auto Growth Drivers Rate is Presently a Bigger Driver than Exposure 14

Monthly Change* in Auto Insurance Prices, 1991 2012* 10% Cyclical peaks in PP Auto tend to occur approximately every 10 years (early 1990s, early 2000s and likely the early 2010s) Pricing peak occurred in 2010 at 5.1%, falling to 2.7% by Feb. 2012 Hard markets tend to occur during recessionary periods The Feb. 2012 reading of 2.7% was the lowest since July 2008-2% 1/31/90 1/31/91 1/31/92 1/31/93 1/31/94 1/31/95 1/31/96 1/31/97 1/31/98 1/31/99 1/31/00 1/31/01 1/31/02 1/31/03 1/31/04 1/31/05 1/31/06 1/31/07 1/31/08 1/31/09 1/31/10 1/31/11 1/30/12 *Percentage change from same month in prior year; through February 2012; seasonally adjusted Note: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institutes. 15

Monthly Change* in Auto Insurance Prices, January 2005 - February 2012 (Percent Change from same month, prior year) 6% 4% 3% 1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.0% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% 1.3% Auto Insurance Price Increases Averaged 5.1% in 2010 over 2009, After Averaging 4.5% in 2009 over 2008. PPA Auto, like most p/c lines, exhibits strong cyclicality in pricing. Prices rose from 2000 to late 2005, were flat/falling in 2006 and 2007 before beginning to rise gain in 2008. 1.6% 5.4% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 4.9% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 4.0% 3.8% 3.4% 3.1% 3.0% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 1.7% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Pricing weakened materially in 2011/12 and growth now lags homeowners 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 4.5% 4.2% Underwriting performance remained strong even when prices were flat or falling due to improvements in underlying frequency and severity trends 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.7% -0% -0.2% Jan 05 Feb 05 Mar 05 Apr 05 May 05 Jun 05 Jul 05 Aug 05 Sep 05 Oct 05 Nov 05 Dec 05 Jan 06 Feb 06 Mar 06 Apr 06 May 06 Jun 06 Jul 06 Aug 06 Sep 06 Oct 06 Nov 06 Dec 06 Jan 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07 Jul 07 Aug 07 Sep 07 Oct 07 Nov 07 Dec 07 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Jan 12 * Percentage change from same month in prior year, seasonally adjusted. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute 16

Average Expenditures on Auto Insurance $950 The average expenditure on auto insurance is lower today than it was in 2003 $863 $775 $688 $705 $703 $691 $685 $690 $668 $651 $726 $842 $830 $831 $816 $808 $795 $786 $789 $785 $600 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10* Countrywide Auto Insurance Expenditures Decreased by 0.8% in 2008 and 0.5% in 2009 and Increased 3.0% in 2010 (est.) * Insurance Information Institute Estimates/Forecasts Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute estimate for 2010 based on CPI and other data. 17

Average Expenditures on Auto Insurance: US vs. NC, 2000-2009 The average expenditure on auto insurance is lower in NC than the US overall, but the underlying reasons are complex and the full costs of coverage may not be built in to these figures $900 $800 $786 $830 $842 $831 $816 $795 $789 $785 $726 $700 $690 $600 $564 $565 $588 $605 $597 $602 $596 $591 $595 $610 $500 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 * Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute. 18

Average Expenditures For Auto Insurance By State, 2009 Top 25 States $1,200 $1,000 $800 $1,128 $1,101 $1,099 $1,057 $1,021 $1,006 $969 $952 $944 $929 $913 $897 $860 $860 $837 $826 $815 $811 $786 $785 $754 $754 $741 $738 $738 $728 $600 $400 $200 $0 DC NJ LA NY DE FL RI CT NV MD MI Note: Average expenditure=total written premium/liability car years. A car year is equal to 365 days of insured coverage for a single vehicle. Source: 2010 National Association of Insurance Commissioners. AK MA TX AZ WA WV PA HI US CA GA CO MS SC IL 19

Average Expenditures For Auto Insurance By State, 2009 Bottom 25 States $800 $600 $400 $723 $718 $716 $713 $699 $694 $680 $668 $667 $656 $655 $652 $646 $634 $623 $620 $616 $610 $598 $591 $578 $559 $555 $532 $521 $510 NC drivers spend less, on average, for auto insurance than drivers in the US overall $200 $0 OR NH UT NM KY MN OK MO VA AR MT AL Note: Average expenditure=total written premium/liability car years. A car year is equal to 365 days of insured coverage for a single vehicle. Source: 2010 National Association of Insurance Commissioners. VT TN WY IN OH NC ME WI KS NE ID IA SD ND 20

Ratio of Avg. Expenditure for Pvt. Passenger Auto Insurance to Median Family Income, 2009 (Percent) Top 25 States 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 1.66% 1.59% 1.57% 1.37% 1.36% 1.35% 1.35% 1.34% 1.29% 1.28% 1.27% 1.23% 1.22% 1.19% 1.11% 1.11% 1.11% 1.11% 1.08% 1.06% 1.05% 1.04% 1.04% 1.03% 1.02% 0.50% 0% LA DC FL WV NV NM MS TX MI NY AZ AR DE SC KY RI GA NJ OK AK US UT AL PA TN *Average auto insurance expenditure as a percentage of the 2009 median income for a family of four Sources: Prepared by the Insurance Information Institute, based on data from the U.S. Census and the National Association of Insurance Commissioners. 21

Ratio of Avg. Expenditure for Pvt. Passenger Auto Insurance to Median Family Income, 2009 (Percent) 2.00% Bottom 25 States Auto insurance costs as a share of median family income are less in NC (0.92%) than for the US overall (1.05%) 1.02% 1.01% 0.98% 0.97% 0.97% 0.94% 0.92% 0.92% 0.92% 0.91% 0.91% 0.91% 0.90% 0.89% 0.86% 0.86% 0.85% 0.84% 0.83% 0.83% 0.81% 0.80% 0.78% 0.78% 0.78% 0.72% 0.65% 0% *Average auto insurance expenditure as a percentage of the 2009 median income for a family of four Sources: Prepared by the Insurance Information Institute, based on data from the U.S. Census and the National Association of Insurance Commissioners. WA OR MT MO CA CT HI ID NC MD IL IN CO ME OH MA KS VT WY MN NH NE VA SD WI IA ND 22

Auto/Light Truck Sales, 1999-2022F (Millions of Units) 18 16 17.8 17.4 17.5 17.1 16.9 16.9 16.6 16.5 16.1 New auto/light truck sales fell to the lowest level since the late 1960s. Forecast for 2012-13 is still far below 1999-2007 average of 17 million units, but a recovery is underway. 15.4 15.5 15.4 15.1 14.8 14.7 14.3 14 13.2 12.7 11 9 10.4 11.6 Job growth and improved credit market conditions will boost auto sales in 2012 and beyond 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12F 13F 14F 15F 16F 17F 18-22F Car/Light Truck Sales Will Continue to Recover from the 2009 Low Point, Bolstering the Auto Insurer Growth and the Manufacturing Sector. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (10/11 and 3/12); Insurance Information Institute. 23

Consumer Sentiment Survey (1966 = 100) January 2010 through March 2012 80 70 76 74.4000 73.6000 73.6000 73.6000 72.2 68.9000 67.8 68.2 67.7 71.6000 74.5 74.2 77.5 67.5 69.8 74.3 71.5 69.9000 75.0 75.3 74.3 60 50 63.7 Optimism among consumers is recovering, in part due to an improving jobs outlook, after plunging amid the debt debate debacle and S&P downgrade 55.7 60.9 59.4 64.1000 40 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sept-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sept-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Consumer confidence has been low for years amid high unemployment, falling home prices and other factors adversely impact consumers, but improved substantially in late 2011 and early 2012 Source: University of Michigan; Insurance Information Institute 24

Unemployment and Underemployment Rates: Stubbornly High in 2012, But Falling January 2000 through February 2012, Seasonally Adjusted (%) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 Recession ended in November 2001 Traditional Unemployment Rate U-3 Unemployment + Underemployment Rate U-6 Unemployment kept rising for 19 more months Recession began in December 2007 2 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 U-6 went from 8.0% in March 2007 to 17.5% in October 2009; Stood at 14.9% in Feb. 2012 Unemployment stood at 8.3% in February 2012 Unemployment peaked at 10.1% in October 2009, highest monthly rate since 1983. Peak rate in the last 30 years: 10.8% in November - December 1982 Stubbornly high unemployment and underemployment constrain overall Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute. 25 32

Private Passenger Auto: US Profitability Analysis Significant Variability Over Time and Across States 26

Return on Net Worth: All P-C Lines vs. Homeowners & Pvt. Pass. Auto, 1990-2010* (Percent) 30% US All Lines US Home US PP Auto OR AK HI 15% 0% -15% -30% -45% Hurricane Andrew Average RNW: 1990-2010* All P-C Lines: 7.9% PP Auto: 8.9% Homeowners: 0.7%** -60% 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Pvt.Pass. Auto Has Consistently Outperformed the P-C Industry as a Whole. Homeowners Volatility is Associated Primarily With Coastal Exposure Issues *Latest available. **Excluding 1992, the Hurricane Andrew, produces a homeowners RNW of 3.5%. Sources: NAIC. 27

Return on Net Worth: All P-C Lines vs. Pvt. Pass. Auto, 1990-2010* (Percent) 15% US All Lines US Home US PP Auto OR AK HI 11% 8% 4% 0% -4% Average RNW: 1990-2010* All P-C Lines: 7.9% PP Auto: 8.9% 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Pvt.Pass. Auto Profitability Has Exceeded the P-C Industry as a Whole in 13 of the 21 Years from 1990-2010 (Inclusive) *Latest available. Sources: NAIC. 28

Return on Net Worth: Pvt. Passenger Auto, 10-Year Average (2001-2010*) (Percent) Top 25 States 22.0 18.5 Hawaii was the most profitable state for auto insurers from 2001-2010 RNW PPA 16.5 11.0 14.5 14.3 14.1 13.5 12.4 12.1 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.5 10.4 10.2 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.2 9.1 5.5 0 *Latest available. Sources: NAIC. HI VT ME ID DC NH ND MN SD OH KS NM CT IA RI OR WY VA AZ WI CA UT IN AL AK 29

Return on Net Worth: Pvt. Passenger Auto, 10-Year Average (2001-2010*) (Percent) 10.0 8.0 Bottom 25 States 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.8 8.5 8.4 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.8 North Carolina was one of the least profitable state for auto insurers from 2001-2010 RNW Auto 6.0 4.0 2.0 5.4 5.3 5.1 4.2 3.4 2.7 0-2.0 *Latest avaiiable. Sources: NAIC CO NY SC WA NE IL MD TN MO US MT AR GA TX WV NJ OK PA NC MA KY MS DE NV FL LA -1.2 MI 30

Private Passenger Auto Combined Ratio: 1993 2012P 110 109.5 107.9 103 103.5 101.7 101.3 101.3 101.0 101.1 99.5 104.2 98.4 98.3 101.3 101.0 100.2 100.8 100.3 95 95.5 95.1 94.3 88 80 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11E 12F Private Passenger Auto Accounts for 34% of Industry Premiums and Remains the Profit Juggernaut of the P/C Insurance Industry Sources: A.M. Best (1990-2012F); Insurance Information Institute. 31

NC Private Passenger Auto Direct Incurred Loss Ratio: 2000-2010 75 The NC private passenger loss ratios have remained relatively stable in recent years 69 63 68.8 67.0 63.9 65.4 66.6 60.4 62.9 65.6 63.8 61.5 63.1 56 50 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Private Passenger Auto Accounts for 34% of Industry Premiums and Remains the Profit Juggernaut of the P/C Insurance Industry Source: SNL Financial; Insurance Information Institute. 32

Profitability and Growth in North Carolina P/C Insurance Markets Analysis by Line and Nearby State Comparisons 33

RNW All Lines: NC vs. U.S., 2001-2010 (Percent) 20% P/C Insurer profitability in NC is above that of the US overall over the past decade US: 7.1% NC: 12.1% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 US All Lines NC All Lines WA OR AK HI Sources: NAIC. 34

RNW PP Auto: NC vs. U.S., 2001-2010 15% 11% Average 2001-2010 US: 7.6% NC: 7.0% 8% 4% 0% 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 US PP Auto NC PP Auto WA OR AK HI Sources: NAIC. 35

All Lines: 10-Year Average RNW NC & Nearby States 2001-2010 12.1% 11.8% 11.5% 7.5% North Carolina Virginia South Carolina West Virginia U.S. Tennesse Georgia 5.4% 6.4% 7.1% North Carolina All Lines profitability is above the US and regional average 0% 3% 7% 10% 13% Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute

PP Auto: 10-Year Average RNW NC & Nearby States 2001-2010 North Carolina PP Auto profitability is below the US and regional average 7.8% 7.6% 8.8% 10.5% Virginia South Carolina Tennesse U.S. West Virginia Georgia North Carolina 7.4% 7.4% 7.0% 0% 3% 6% 8% 11% Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute

All Lines DWP Growth: NC vs. U.S., 2001-2010 (Percent) 15% 12.1% 11.3% 8% 14.5% 10.9% 9.9% 8.4% 7.5% 6.3% Average 2001-2010 US: 4.5% NC: 4.3% 0% 1.9% 2.2% 4.5% 3.3% 3.9% 0.4% -0.2% -2.4% -3.0% -3.1% 0.3% -1.1% -8% -15% 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 US DWP: All Lines NC DWP: All Lines WA OR AK HI Source: SNL Financial. 38

Private Passenger Auto DWP Growth: NC vs. U.S., 2001-2010 (Percent) 20% Average 2001-2010 US: 3.2% NC: 3.1% 8.3% 6.8% 9.8% 7.5% 8.1% 7.6% 5.0% 3.5% 0.6% 1.4% 0.5% 2.0% 0% 1.8% 2.3% 0% 1.5% -1.6% -0.3% -1.8% -10% 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 US DWP: PP Auto NC DWP: PP Auto WA OR AK HI Source: SNL Financial. 39

Mother Nature Hates North Carolina s Cars Too NC Is No Stranger to Catastrophe It s Not Just Homes that Are Damaged 40

Severe Weather Reports in North Carolina, January 1 December 31, 2011 There were 1,687 severe weather reports in NC in 2011 NC Total Reports = 1,687 Tornadoes = 113 (Red) Hail Reports = 347 (Green) Wind Reports = 1,226 (Blue) Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center; http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2011_annual_summary.html# 41

NC Comprehensive Coverage: Frequency and Severity Trend in 2011 is Unfavorable Annual Change, 2007 through 2011* 50% Severity Frequency North Severe weather is a principal cause of the spike in both frequency and severity in 2011 44.6% 38% 25% 13% 11.6% 14.5% 14.6% 0% -13% 1.3% 2.2% -0.2% -5.5% -8.0% -7.5% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* Weather Creates Volatility for Comprehensive Coverage; Hail, Wind and Tornadoes Caused Significant Vehicle Damage in NC *For 2011, data are for the 4 quarters ending with 2011:Q3. Source: ISO/PCI Fast Track data; Insurance Information Institute 42

Claim Trends in Auto Insurance Rising Costs Held in Check by Falling Frequency: Can That Pattern Be Sustained? 43

NC Bodily Injury: Severity Trend Rising, Frequency Decline Has Ended Annual Change, 2007 through 2011* Severity Frequency North 8% 8.0% 7.4% 6% 4% 4.0% 2% 0% 1.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0% -2% -4% -6% -2.8% -4.2% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* Cost Pressures Will Increase if BI Severity Frequency Increases Continue *For 2011, data are for the 4 quarters ending with 2011:Q3. Source: ISO/PCI Fast Track data; Insurance Information Institute 44

NC Property Damage Liability: Severity, Frequency Nearly Flat on Net Since 2009 Annual Change, 2007 through 2011* Severity Frequency North 4% 3% 1% 0% 2.5% 1.8% 0.6% 0% 1.9% 1.4% -1% -0.3% -0.6% -3% -1.9% -4% -5% -4.6% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* Severity/Frequency Trends Were Relatively Stable Through 2011, Though Concerns About Rising Severities Exist *For 2011, data are for the 4 quarters ending with 2011:Q3. Source: ISO/PCI Fast Track data; Insurance Information Institute 45

NC Collision Coverage: Frequency and Severity Trends Were Flat in 2011* Annual Change, 2007 through 2011* Severity Frequency North 5% 4.3% 4% 3% 2.4% 2.1% 1% 0% 1.1% 0.2% -1% -3% -4% -0.8% -1.5% -1.8% -1.9% -2.8% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* The Recession, High Fuel Prices Have Helped Temper Frequency and Severity, But this Trend Will Likely Be Reversed Based on Evidence from Past Recoveries *For 2011, data are for the 4 quarters ending with 2011:Q3. Source: ISO/PCI Fast Track data; Insurance Information Institute 46

Regulatory Environment & Financial Services Reform State Regulatory Environments Vary Tremendously and Can Impact Insurer Profitability and Ability to Compete 47

2010 Property and Casualty Insurance Regulatory Report Card AK AL = A = B = C = D = F = NG F D HI OR CA WA C- C- Not Graded: District of Columbia F NV B MT North Carolina s regulatory environment got a grade of C+ in 2010 ND MN B B+ D- ID NY SD C+ F WI MI B+ B B+ WY PA B IA B- A+ C B NE OH MD B- IL IN WV UT VA CO C- A C+ B+ KS MO KY B+ D+ B- B- C+ NC TN D OK SC AZ NM AR C- C- Source: James Madison Institute, C- February 2008. B+ MS AL B+ GA C- B C+ TX F LA C+ Source: Heartland Institute, May 2011 FL F A+ VT NJ CT NH MA DE C- ME A RI C+ B B+ B D- D+

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