Small Business Credit Outlook

Transcription

1 2015 Q1 Small Business Credit Outlook Small Business to the Rescue Small business came to the rescue for the U.S. economy in Q GDP surprised on the low side at 0.2% in the 1st quarter and demand GDP is actually negative because much of the growth was inventories. With the March trade deficit coming in larger than anticipated, 1st quarter GDP will likely face a negative restatement shortly. The Fed calls this transitory, but the reality is the U.S. economy is stuck in low gear. Large companies are sitting on cash, buying back stock, and paying dividends, which will bring more slow growth. Small businesses remain a source of investment to create organic expansion, and it looks like they were the big driver of GDP growth in the 1st quarter.

2 Business Cycle PayNet research shows low loan delinquencies and positive investment by small businesses kept the expansion phase intact. Small business investment ended the quarter at based on the Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Lending Index (SBLI). Although not evident in this chart, year-over-year investment by small businesses continued to expand. At the same time, credit risk moderated as severe loan delinquencies fell slightly by 1 basis point. The expansion phase at low risk endured, even if barely so. PayNet Small Business Cycle 130 1Q07 1Q06 1Q CONTRACTION EXPANSION 1Q14 SBLI Originations Index Q10 1Q09 RECESSION 1Q08 1Q05 1Q11 RECOVERY 1Q12 1Q % 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0% SBDI Day Delinquency Index

3 Financial Health Small businesses underwent a massive de-levering after the Great Recession. Clearly, sales were too low to cover high debt loads at many small businesses in As a result, 10.4% of businesses failed during this time. Since then, default rates have fallen to all-time low levels as businesses reduced debt loads to align more with sales. However, too little risk- taking is proving to be detrimental for economic growth. PayNet s data shows failure rates of small businesses at all-time lows of 1.4% last year. The default rate during normal times ran 2.5% - 3.0%. Everyone went into damage control after the Great Recession, and small business is now emerging from that mindset. Businesses spent the five years after the recession repairing balance sheets and shoring up P&L s. Now, financial health of small businesses is at an all-time high as measured by default rates. HISTORICAL DEFAULT RATES INDUSTRY SEGMENT HISTORICAL DEFAULT RATES Retail 3.0% 3.4% 4.6% 6.5% 4.9% 3.7% 2.0% 1.8% 1.5% Health Care 2.2% 4.1% 3.6% 3.7% 2.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.4% 1.5% Construction 2.3% 3.6% 5.5% 8.8% 6.7% 3.2% 2.0% 1.4% 1.3% Transportation 2.9% 5.4% 7.8% 9.3% 5.8% 3.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.7% General 2.3% 3.5% 3.7% 5.0% 3.1% 2.0% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% Agriculture 2.3% 1.6% 1.8% 2.6% 2.6% 1.4% 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% ALL INDUSTRIES 2.5% 3.8% 4.7% 6.2% 4.2% 2.4% 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% For Borrowers with an Exposure Less than $2.5mm Recent Investment Activity Private GDP increased by $26.3 billion in the first quarter of 2015 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The SBLI jumped 12% in March over the prior year, and the 3 month average growth trend was 10% in the 1st quarter. Small business lending added around $14 billion to GDP during the first quarter according to PayNet analytics. This explains over 50% of private GDP growth in the first quarter, and well over 100% of total GDP growth which was hampered by a shrinking public sector. This growth is driven by realized investment, stronger profits, and stronger consumption following the dispersal of funds. Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Lending Index (SBLI) (January March 2015) Index Value

4 Industry Sector Investment Activity Several industry sectors currently driving the U.S. economy reached all-time high levels of originations in March with significant year-overyear growth. Accommodation & Food Service grew 16%, Transportation & Warehousing grew 26%, Arts, Entertainment & Recreation grew 10%, and U.S. Education grew 5%. Growing Sectors 160 March 2014 March Accommodation & Food Services Transportation/ Warehousing Arts/Entertainment/ Recreation US Education Additionally, sectors with room to grow could contribute to economic growth. Construction grew 12% last year but still could grow another 49% before matching the pre-recession high. Retail grew 5% yearover-year as of March 2015, but had been up 9% as of December Retail could grow 31% before matching the pre-recession high. Yet the U.S. economy is still stuck in low gear. Some sectors are lagging with negative or limited year-overyear growth. Agriculture declined 13% and Mining declined 4% while Manufacturing and Healthcare exhibited limited growth of 2% and 3%, respectively. Lagging Sectors 170 March 2014 March Agriculture Manufacturing Mining Healthcare

5 Credit Risk We see in the data that when loan delinquency rates are low, small businesses find easier access to credit. This is certainly true today. Loans 30 days or more past due stand at 1.25% at the end of March. While higher than the all-time low in October 2013, loan delinquencies remain well below the long-term average. Since that low-point, loan delinquencies have risen 10 basis points. Credit access is still an issue for some small businesses, but the level of this credit gap is more moderate than during and immediately after the Great Recession. Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Delinquency Index (SBDI) (31-90 Days Past Due) (January March 2015) 4% 3.5% 3% 2.5% Index Value 2% 1.5% 1% 0.5% 0% Regional Credit Risk States with the highest percentage of loans past due are still found mostly in the southeast. Construction businesses in Florida, North Carolina, Texas, and Georgia account for 4 of the 5 state industries with the highest loan delinquencies. STATE INDUSTRY SECTORS WITH HIGHEST DELINQUENCY STATE MARCH 2015 Georgia Health Care 2.15% Florida Construction 2.14% North Carolina Construction 1.99% Texas Construction 1.97% Georgia Construction 1.88% Florida General 1.87% New York General 1.73% Georgia General 1.72% Ohio Retail 1.62% Pennsylvania General 1.55%

6 PayNet Small Business Delinquency Index by State (31-90 Day) WA ME CA OR NV ID AZ UT MT WY CO NM ND MN SD WI IA NE IL KS MO OK AR MS IN MI TN AL KY OH GA WV PA SC VA NC NY VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE DC MD AK TX LA FL HI < 0.50% % % > 1.50% Credit Risk Forecast Today, the issue is the opposite of Sales are higher and debt loads are lower. Small businesses possess enough capacity to adequately service higher debt loads. Too little risk-taking after the recession was necessary to realign leverage, but now it is restraining GDP growth. With this backdrop, we are forecasting a moderate rise in defaults to 1.5% in 2015 from 1.4% in This means that thousands more employer-based businesses will fail in 2015 than in That sounds scary, but let s put it into perspective. This increase in defaults is a blip up and a healthy sign of a return to normal risk taking. To use an analogy from skiing, if you don t fall, you re not trying hard enough. ABSOLUTEPD FORECAST DEFAULT RATES ABSOLUTEPD FORECAST INDUSTRY SEGMENT DEFAULT RATES 2015* 2015 Retail 1.8% 2.5% Health Care 1.7% 2.1% Construction 1.5% 1.7% Transportation 1.5% 1.6% General 1.4% 1.5% Agriculture 1.3% 1.3% ALL INDUSTRIES 1.5% 1.7% * 2015 Forecasts Include 1 Quarter of Actual Defaults

7 Summary Small business lending in the 2nd quarter appears to be on track for more expansion. 1st quarter SBLI results indicate lending will boost GDP by around $20 billion in the 2nd quarter. Business investment is up 12% in March over last year, and trend-line growth has increased to 10%. This is adding tens of billions of dollars to GDP. While investment is not up in all major industries, it is strong enough to keep the business cycle in expansion mode and add more to GDP as we saw in the 1st quarter of The economy as a whole is sluggish, but thankfully, small business provides another leg to the stool to help stabilize this economy. Credit quality remains high which potentially leads to more investment, resulting in higher sales, more hiring, and rising wages.

8 About PayNet, Inc. PayNet is the leading provider of credit ratings on small businesses enabling lenders to achieve optimal risk management, growth, and operational efficiencies. PayNet maintains the largest proprietary database of small business loans, leases, and lines of credit encompassing over 23 Million contracts worth more than $1.3 Trillion. Using state-of-the-art analytics, PayNet converts raw data into real-time marketing intelligence and predictive information that subscribing lenders use to make informed small business financial decisions and improve their business strategy. PayNet s small business capabilities range from historic credit-reporting and automated credit-scoring to detailed strategic business reviews that include portfolio risk measurement, default forecasting, peer benchmarking, and critical industry trend analysis. PayNet Contact Information PayNet, Inc Old Orchard Rd., Suite 250 Skokie, IL William Phelan President bphelan@paynetonline.com PayNet Risk Insight Suite PayNet, PayNet AbsolutePD, and PayNet Risk Insight Suite are registered trademarks of PayNet, Inc PayNet, Inc. Taking the Risk Out of Small Business Lending For more information please call (866) or visit sbinsights.net