State of the Workers Compensation Market

Transcription

1 State of the Workers Compensation Market and Recent Experience Rating Changes Presented by: Tony DiDonato, FCAS, MAAA Director & Senior Actuary, NCCI CASE Spring Meeting March 27, 2013 Nashville, TN

2 Workers Compensation Countrywide Premium 2

3 $ Billions 50 State Funds ($ B) Countrywide Workers Compensation Premium First Increase in Years Private Carriers ($ B) Net Written Premium Calendar Year Source: Private Carriers, Annual Statement Data; 2011, NCCI State Funds: AZ, CA, CO, HI, ID, KY, LA, MD, MO, MT, NM, OK, OR, RI, TX, UT Annual Statements State Funds available for 1996 and subsequent 3

4 Countrywide Average Approved Bureau Rates/Loss Costs History of Average Workers Compensation Bureau Rate/Loss Cost Level Changes Percent Cumulative % 2.9 Cumulative % Cumulative % * Preliminary Countrywide approved changes in advisory rates, loss costs, and assigned risk rates as filed by the applicable rating organization relative to the previously filed rates * Calendar Year Cumulative %

5 Countrywide Average Approved Bureau Rates/Loss Costs Percent All States vs. NCCI States All States NCCI States Cumulative : 14.7% All States 13.1% NCCI States * Calendar Year * Preliminary Countrywide approved changes in advisory rates, loss costs, and assigned risk rates as filed by the applicable rating organization relative to the previously filed rates 5

6 Status of NCCI Filing Activity Voluntary Market Filings Number of States /2010 Season 2010/2011 Season 2011/2012 Season 2012/2013 Season Less than 0% No Filing 0% and greater 6

7 Percent 15 Current NCCI Voluntary Market Rate/Loss Cost Level Changes Excludes Law-Only Filings WVKY VA AR IL TX AK GAME UT NC SD MT NE DC OK NH SC ORMOKS TN LA NVMD ID AZ MS IN AL NMCO HI VT FL CT IA RI Approved Pending Reflects the most recent experience filing in each jurisdiction 7

8 Percent Countrywide Impact of Discounting on Workers Compensation Premium NCCI States Private Carriers Rate/Loss Cost Departure Schedule Rating Dividends p Policy Year p Preliminary Dividend ratios are based on calendar year statistics NCCI benchmark level does not include an underwriting contingency provision Based on data through 12/31/2011 for the states where NCCI provides ratemaking services 8

9 Workers Compensation Premium Rate Ranking Premium Rate Index per $100 of Payroll ND IN AR VA DC NV UT MA CO MS KS WV OR TX AZ MO HI MD NE MI WY DE FL OH GA NM NC IA SD KY AL RI TN ID MN SC LA VT WA PA WI ME NH MT NJ OK NY IL CA CT AK Source: 2012 Oregon Workers Compensation Premium Rate Ranking Summary Indexes based on rates in effect on January 1,

10 Countrywide Average Rates by Industry Group Pure Loss Cost All Classes All Classes Manufacturing Contracting Office & Clerical Goods & Services Miscellaneous Calculated from WCSP payroll and company-level premium data in NCCI states 10

11 Countrywide Distribution of Payroll and Premium by Industry Group Goods & Services 19.0% Misc 5.3% Manufact 8.3% Contracting 6.4% Misc 16.1% Premium Manufact 16.0% Payroll Office & Clerical 61.0% Goods & Services 29.9% Contracting 24.6% Calculated from WCSP payroll and company-level premium data in NCCI states Office & Clerical 13.4% 11

12 Countrywide Policy Size Comparison by Policy Count and Premium 8.4% 5.7% 2.2% 10.1% $0 $1,999 $2,000 $4,999 Premium 2.5% 4.0% 5.0% 17.8% Policy Count 55.8% $5,000 $9,999 $10,000 $24,999 $25,000 $99,999 $100,000 and greater 9.2% 19.4% 59.9% Calculated from WCSP payroll and company-level premium data in NCCI states 12

13 Estimated Ultimate Premium All Pools Combined Billions Traumatic Only Policy Year PY Est. Ult. Premium 2010 = $454M 2011 = $509M 2012 = $805M NCCI residual market pool data valued as of 9/30/12, which excludes direct assignment policy premium. 13

14 Workers Compensation Combined Ratios 14

15 Percent Countrywide Workers Compensation Calendar Year Combined Ratio Remains High Private Carriers 140 Dividends Underwriting Expense LAE Loss Calendar Year Source: , Annual Statement Data 15

16 Percent Countrywide Workers Compensation Calendar Year Net Combined Ratios Private Carriers and State Funds Private Carriers NCCI-Affiliated State Funds State Funds Calendar Year Source: Private Carriers, Annual Statement Data NCCI-Affiliated State Funds: AZ, CO, HI, ID, KY, LA, MO, MT, NM, OK, OR, RI, UT Annual Statements State Funds: AZ, CA, CO, HI, ID, KY, LA, MD, MO, MT, NM, OK, OR, RI, TX, UT Annual Statements 16

17 Percent 130 Countrywide Accident Year Net Combined Ratio Workers Compensation Calendar Year vs. Ultimate Accident Year Private Carriers Calendar Year Accident Year Accident Year data is evaluated as of 12/31/2011 and developed to ultimate Source: Calendar Years , Annual Statement Data; Ultimate Accident Years , NCCI analysis based on Annual Statement Data Includes dividends to policyholders 17

18 Results Vary From State to State Accident Year 2011 Combined Ratios AR WV TX AK IN, VA DC, HI, NV KY, NE, TN MO IL, ME KS OK, SD IA, MS GA, ID AL, FL NC NM LA VT UT MD, NH CT RI AZ CO OR Data is evaluated as of 12/31/

19 Claim Frequency 19

20 Percent 12 9 Countrywide Workers Compensation Lost-Time Claim Frequency Declined in 2011 Cumulative Change of 55.5% ( adjusted) Lost-Time Claims Indicated Adjusted p Accident Year 2011p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/ : Based on data through 12/31/2010, developed to ultimate Based on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking services, including state funds; excludes high deductible policies Frequency is the number of lost-time claims per $1M pure premium at current wage and voluntary loss cost level 20

21 The Recession Impacted Premium Audits Final Premium vs. Estimated Premium by Policy Effective Quarter Percent Recession Q1 '06 Q2 '06 Q3 '06 Q4 '06 Q1 '07 Q2 '07 Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 ' Q2 ' Q3 ' Q4 ' Q1 '09 Q2 ' Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Policy Quarter NCCI s Statistical Plan audited premium compared to policy-estimated premium Based on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking services, including state funds; excludes high deductible policies and mid-term cancellations 21

22 Adjustments to Indicated Change in Lost-Time Claim Frequency Accident Year 2010 & 2011 Estimated Adjustments to Frequency Change Unadjusted Frequency Change +10% 4% CY Premium Adjustment 6% +4% Workweek and Industry Group Mix 1% 1% Adjusted Frequency Change +3% 1% 22

23 Countrywide Distribution of Claims by Injury Type 8.5% 0.3% 14.4% 76.8% Countrywide Medical Only Temporary Total Permanent Partial Permanent Total/Fatal Based on NCCI s Statistical Plan data 23

24 Indemnity Severity 24

25 Percent Change Countrywide Workers Compensation Indemnity Severity Modest Increase in Average Indemnity Cost per Lost-Time Claim Change in Indemnity Cost per Lost-Time Claim Change in Average Weekly Wage p Year p Preliminary Based on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking services, including state funds; excludes high deductible policies Sources:Average Weekly Wage : Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Economy.com; p, NCCI Accident year indemnity severity NCCI states, NCCI

26 Countrywide Indemnity Loss Distribution by Injury Type 16.0% 14.1% 69.9% Countrywide Temporary Total Permanent Partial Permanent Total/Fatal Based on NCCI s Statistical Plan data 26

27 Medical Severity 27

28 Countrywide Workers Compensation Medical Severity Moderate Increase in 2011 Percent Change Average Medical Cost per Lost-Time Claim Change in Medical Cost per Lost-Time Claim Change in Medical CPI p Year p Preliminary Based on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking services, including state funds; excludes high deductible policies Sources:Medical CPI All states, Moody s Economy.com; Accident year medical severity NCCI states, NCCI 28

29 Countrywide Medical Loss Distribution by Injury Type 16.9% 11.7% 16.6% 54.8% Countrywide Medical Only Temporary Total Permanent Partial Permanent Total/Fatal Based on NCCI s Statistical Plan data 29

30 NCCI Experience Rating Plan: Recent Changes to the Primary/Excess Split Point 30

31 Experience Rating Plan Experience Rating Formula Weight, assigned by expected loss Actual excess losses based on insured s experience Expected excess losses A p + (W x A e ) + (1 W) x E e + B Ballast, assigned by expected loss Actual primary losses based on insured s experience E p + E e + B Expected primary losses Actual primary losses: actual losses that have been capped at the split point Actual excess losses: actual losses that are above the split point, subject to accident limit Expected losses: calculated by multiplying insured s payroll in 100 s by class ELR Expected primary losses: calculated by multiplying expected losses by class D-ratio Expected excess losses: Expected losses expected primary losses 31

32 Experience Rating Plan Item E-1402 Effective 1/1/2013 and subsequent in NCCI states Increases the primary/excess split point Indexes the split point, so future increases are automatic Revises the maximum modification formula/cap, so the maximum mod is not less than 1.10 Experience rating changes will be premiumneutral statewide 32

33 Experience Rating Plan Split Point Review The split point separates losses into primary and excess components. It had been $5,000. If the split point is not indexed for claim cost inflation, a greater proportion of losses fall into the excess category as time goes on. Since excess losses receive less weight than primary losses in the experience rating formula, the plan becomes less responsive. Performance testing indicates that the split point needs to be increased to $15,000. This is not surprising since the average cost of a claim has tripled since the last split point update (20 years ago). 33

34 Quintile Analysis: Prior $5,000 Split Point PY 2006 Experience Under the ER Plan, Indexed for Severity Inflation Relative Pure Loss Ratio 150% 100% 50% Before Experience Rating 0.36 to th Percentile 75th Percentile 25th Percentile 5th Percentile 0.89 to to to to 3.67 After Experience Rating 0.36 to to to to to 3.67 Groups Based on Experience Rating Modification Relative Pure Loss Ratio = Loss Ratio for Quintile / Loss Ratio for All Quintiles Combined 34

35 Quintile Analysis: Indicated $15,000 Split Point PY 2006 Experience Under the ER Plan, Indexed for Severity Inflation Relative Pure Loss Ratio 150% 100% 50% Before Experience Rating 0.32 to th Percentile 75th Percentile 25th Percentile 5th Percentile 0.81 to to to to 4.26 After Experience Rating 0.32 to to to to to 4.26 Groups Based on Experience Rating Modification Relative Pure Loss Ratio = Loss Ratio for Quintile / Loss Ratio for All Quintiles Combined 35

36 Experience Rating Plan Item E-1402 The effective date coincides with the effective date of the loss cost or rate filing A transition program* is phasing in the split point change: Year 1, the split point is being increased to $10K Year 2, the split point will be further increased to $13.5K Year 3, the split point will be increased all the way to the indicated split point of approximately $17K ($15K plus two years of inflation adjustment rounded to the nearest $500) Subsequent annual filings will increase the split point as indicated * A 4-year transition was approved in MO 36

37 Typical Annual Mod Changes Under No Change in Split Point The 2013 split point change is not occurring in isolation The regular annual update of the NCCI ER values is also occurring This can change mods by several percent Employer experience is also updated annually This is typically the biggest driver of changes in mods, especially for large mod changes Changes in the split point will become part of the regular annual update of the experience rating values 37

38 Typical Annual Mod Changes Under No Change in Split Point Distribution of Differences Between 2010 and 2011 Mod Values for Selected States* % Change in Mod % of Risks Average Mod 2010* 2011* Change <-15% 4.5% %<Change<-10% 3.4% %<Change<-5% 5.1% %<Change<0% 20.6% No Change 22.5% %<Change<5% 31.6% %<Change<10% 4.3% %<Change<15% 2.9% %<Change<20% 2.0% %<Change 3.1% * For some states the difference between 2011 and 2012 is used 38

39 Preliminary Mods and Final Mods Experience rating (ER) values using a $10,000 split point were filed on a state-by-state basis for loss cost and rate filings effective and subsequent When a loss cost filing was pending, preliminary mods were issued by NCCI Preliminary mods use approved ER values and were issued under a $5K split point until the rate (loss cost) filing was approved Final mods that use the revised split point were issued once the rate (loss cost) filing was approved 39

40 Preliminary Mods and Final Mods In 2012, Preliminary mods were computed using: - 3-years of updated actual losses for employers - Prior approved split point ($5,000) - Prior approved Expected Loss Rates (ELR) - Prior approved D-ratio, Weights, & Ballasts Upon approval, Final mods were computed using: - 3-years of updated actual losses for employers - New split point ($10,000) -New ELR - New D-ratio, New Weights, & New Ballasts NCCI is analyzing the comparison of preliminary and final mod results as states are approved 40

41 Comparisons of Preliminary Mods to Final Mods Initial Snapshot of Mod Results from Recently Approved States* % Change in Prelim_Mod to Final_Mod % of Risks Preliminary SP = $5K Average Mod Final SP = $10K Change < 15% 0.07% %<Change < 10% 0.43% %<Change < 5% 11.45% %< Change < 0% 61.64% No Change 4.48% %< Change <5% 9.97% %< Change <10% 8.04% %< Change <15% 3.23% %<Change 0.68% Total % * Based upon a sample of 75,007 intrastate risks from the following 26 states: MO, AZ, IN, OR, IL, NM, MD, OK, ID, HI, KS, FL, NH, TN, IA, ME, CO, AL, NE, CT, GA, MS, LA, AK, VA, NV 41

42 Conclusions NCCI is currently tracking the change in split point by doing comparisons of preliminary to final mod values for a large sample of risks The results are very similar to NCCI s previous countrywide split point research. That is: - The majority of risks receive credits - Credits and debits are larger under $10K split point This comparison differs slightly from NCCI s countrywide research, which isolated the split point change across a full year s risks in all NCCI states The initial snapshot of results from the split point change is consistent with NCCI s previous countrywide research 42

43 Thank You!