BALANCED fund Third Quarter Results September 30, 2015 FOCUSED INVESTING FOR THE LONG-TERM
BALANCED fund (MAPOX) Third Quarter Market Overview - September 30, 2015 As the year began, many companies were battling a decline in energy prices, commodity prices and a strong dollar. Then, during the third quarter China started to show more incremental weakness in its economy as well, intensifying the weakness in agriculture and commodity prices. The market reacted and the dizzying one-day swing of more than 1,000 points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on August 24th delivered the event that had been worrying investors, a market correction -- technically a 10% move off of recent highs. The correction was widespread, resulting in negative third quarter returns across every sector except consumer staples and utilities. Only consumer discretionary and healthcare remains in positive territory year-to-date. While the long anticipated correction allowed the market to stop holding its collective breath, the rapidity and volatility reminded us, if we needed reminding, that short-term market swings can be wildly unpredictable. We re glad we are playing the long game. It has been a difficult quarter and year for many investors. The third quarter ended with the S&P 500 Total Return (TR) down -6.44% for the quarter, and -5.29% for the first nine months of the year. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average TR and the S&P Small Cap 600 TR mirrored the broader market, with the Dow down -6.98% for the quarter and -6.95% for the year and the Small Cap index down -9.27% for the quarter, and -5.49% year-to-date. Our other key benchmark, the Barclay s Government/Credit Bond Index Return was up slightly in both periods, +1.20% for the quarter and +0.90% year-to-date. As industrial investment has slowed with lower energy and agriculture commodity prices, the industrial and materials sectors have significantly underperformed the broader market indices this year. Exportoriented companies as well as U.S. focused companies in those sectors have also faced currency translation pressure as the dollar has appreciated significantly versus nearly all foreign currencies. This currency dynamic puts domestic companies in the difficult position of either cutting prices to match international competition or losing market share. We believe these currency and commodity headwinds will dissipate over time and companies in those sectors should outperform, but are uncertain on the timing.
Future Outlook Four years have elapsed since the last correction in 2011 and the market s run coming out of the recession is now more than six years old. Many investors naturally have been asking if the third quarter signaled the end of the bull market. We don t think so. Despite near term headwinds, we continue to believe that stock performance longterm is built on business results. We see the U. S. economy continuing to outpace other major economies around the globe which should be good for stocks of U.S. companies. In addition, while earnings for the S&P 500 are down this year, the expectation is for moderate earnings growth to resume next year. Recent economic data supports our view. Consumer confidence is near peak levels and in better shape than the headlines suggest. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was revised upward in the second quarter, reflecting stronger than expected consumer spending. The dollar/euro relationship has been stable since March, and if that stability continues, we see that particular headwind faced by exporters ending early next year. A recent research report out of Wells Capital Management pointed out that commodity modity price collapses have occurred midway through three of the last four economic recoveries since 1970. The report s author, Chief Investment Strategist Jim Paulsen, notes that the recent fall in the S&P GSCI Spot Commodity Price Index is similar to past recoveries. ries. He argues that weak commodity prices fuel continued economic expansion by shifting pricing power to manufacturers, ending the dramatic shift away from capital goods stocks. Paulsen s note also illustrates a key tenet of the Mairs & Power investment t approach patient, long-term investing through market cycles. The S&P 500 Total Return (TR) Index is an unmanaged index of 500 common stocks that is generally considered the group of stocks
Balanced Fund Performance Review For the third quarter and first nine months of the year ending September 30, 2015, the Mairs & Power Balanced Fund was down -4.86 % and -5.61% respectively. The Fund underperformed its benchmark composite index (60% S&P 500 Total Return (TR) Index and 40% Barclays Government/Credit Bond Index), which was down -3.40% and -2.70% for the three month and nine month periods respectively. Performance data quoted represents past performance and does not guarantee future results. shares, when redeemed, may be lower or higher than the perforance quoted. For the most As has been true throughout the year, the Fund s equity performance in both the third quarter and the first nine months can be explained by the continued strength in the dollar and low energy prices. The Fund s overweight position in the industrial and energy sectors were significant contributors to underperformance in both the second quarter and the first nine months. On an individual stock basis, Emerson Electric (EMR) and Conoco Phillips (COP) were bottom contributors in both periods. Consumer discretionary and staple sectors were positive contributors to Fund performance in both periods. Hormel Foods (HRL) and Home Depot (HD) were top contributors in both periods (not counting Baxalta (BXLT), a pharmaceutical spin-off created at the end of the second quarter). On the fixed income side of the portfolio, uncertainty on the timing of the Federal Reserve (Fed) action on raising interest rates continues to dominate the news, adding volatility to fixed income securities and dividend paying stocks. We are more focused on the pace of interest rate moves than the timing and still expect the Fed to move deliberately and at a moderate pace. Our posture remains the same as we continue to migrate the fixed income portfolio at the margins to shorter duration (the average length to maturity) and closer to the benchmark duration. Mairs & Power Balanced Fund Performers TOP PERFORMERS THIRD QUARTER (6/30/15-9/30/15) Hormel Foods Corp 18.75% Xcel Energy Inc. 16.48% CH Robinson 15.08% The Travelers Cos., Inc. 9.41% United Parcel Services, Inc., Class B 8.28% YEAR TO DATE (12/31/14-9/30/15) Hormel Foods Corp 26.81% Eli Lilly & Co. 26.60% Home Depot, Inc. 15.31% Ecolab, Inc. 10.27% Target Corp. 8.91% WEAK PERFORMERS THIRD QUARTER (6/30/15-9/30/15) Baxter International Inc. -46.58% Pentair Ltd. -19.32% ConocoPhillips -15.46% Emerson Electric Co -13.87% Schlumberger, Ltd. -13.54% YEAR TO DATE (12/31/14-9/30/15) Baxter International Inc. -49.89% ConocoPhillips -25.26% Emerson Electric Co. -23.16% Corning Inc. -20.05% Exxon Mobil Corp. -14.29%
C.H. Robinson (CHRW) was a top performer in the quarter and a stock that illustrates our investment approach, where we seek out good companies with sustainable competitive advantages over the long term. The company is well positioned in both consumer and industrial markets and should benefit as the industrial sector picks up. As the just-in-time movement of materials and finished goods grows more complicated, manufacturers and retailers are increasingly outsourcing their purchasing and distribution logistics to external companies. C.H. Robinson is an asset-light third party logistics provider focused on technology. The recent west coast longshoreman s strike gave the company an opportunity to demonstrate the value of its technology investment to its customers. C.H. Robinson is able to keep customers informed on the movement of goods and, if it anticipates a delay, can suggest alternative routing and transportation options to keep its customers materials flowing. We look for the company s valuation to move back toward its historic range as the industrial sector recovers, and we see evidence that the re-acceleration is on the horizon. Mairs & Power has always managed investments with tax implications in mind. The Medtronic acquisition of Covidien earlier this year, created a taxable event for owners of the Balanced Fund that will be somewhat larger than what has been true historically although still within the range of capital gains reported by many of our peer funds.* Shareholders will be receiving the tax information when the Fund mails out Form 1099 reports mid-february of next year. Also, shareholders can check our website, www.mairsandpower.com, in mid-november for our estimated capital gain distributions. Ronald L. Kaliebe Lead Manager Kevin V. Earley Co-Manager The Fund s investment objective, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. The summary prospectus or full prospectus contains this and other important information about the Fund, and they may be obtained by calling Shareholder Services at (800) 304-7404 or visiting www.mairsandpower.com. Read the summary prospectus or full prospectus carefully before investing. * Mairs & Power does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice to its clients. All investors are encouraged to consult with their legal, tax or accounting consultants. The stocks mentioned herein represent the following percentages of the total net assets of the Mairs & Power Balanced Fund as of September 30, 2015: Baxter International Inc. 0.65%, CH Robinson 1.22%, ConocoPhillips 1.25%, Corning Inc. 1.09%, Covidien 0.00%, Ecolab, Inc. 2.07%, Eli Lilly & Co. 0.56%, Emerson Electric Company 1.72%, Exxon Mobil Corp. 2.22%, Home Depot, Inc. 1.30%, Hormel Foods Corp 1.06%, Medtronic, Inc. 2.57%, Pentair Ltd., 1.05%, Schlumberger Ltd. 1.68%, Target Corporation 1.55%, The Travelers Cos., Inc. 0.53%, United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B 3.06%, Xcel Energy Inc. 0.93%. All holdings in the portfolio are subject to change without notice and may or may not represent current or future portfolio composition. The mention of specific securities is not intended as a recommendation or an offer of a particular security, nor is it intended to be a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.
Average Annual Total Returns (%) As of 9/30/2015 Quarter (1) 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year Mairs & Power Balanced Fund (2) -4.86-2.03 7.50 9.34 6.81 Composite Index (3) -3.40 0.88 8.09 9.34 6.22 S&P 500 TR Index (4) -6.44-0.61 12.40 13.34 6.80 Barclays Gov/Credit Bond Index (5) 1.20 2.73 1.59 3.09 4.61 Expense ratio 0.73% Inception: 11/10/1961 Performance data quoted represents past performance and does not guarantee future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance of the Fund may be lower or higher than the performance quoted. For most recent month-end performance figures, visit www.mairsandpower.com or call Shareholder Services at (800) 304-7404. (1) Periods less than one year are not annualized. (2) Performance information shown includes the reinvestment of dividend and capital gain distributions, but does not reflect the deduction of taxes that a shareholder would pay on Fund distributions or the redemption of Fund shares. (3) The Composite Index reflects an unmanaged portfolio of 60% of the S&P 500 TR Index and 40% of the Barclays Government/Credit Bond Index. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. (4) The S&P 500 TR (Total Return) Index is an unmanaged index of 500 common stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. It tracks both the capital gains of a group of stocks over time, and assumes that any cash distributions, such as dividends, are reinvested back into the index. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. (5) Barclays Government/Credit Bond Index. Barclays is composed of high-quality, investment-grade U.S. government and corporate fixed income securities with maturities greater than one year. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. All investments have risks. Mairs & Power Balanced Fund is designed for long-term investors. The Fund s share price can fall because of weakness in the broad market, a particular industry, or specific holdings. Investments in small and midcap companies generally are more volatile. International investing risks include among others political, social or economic instability, difficulty in predicting international trade patterns, taxation and foreign trading practices, and greater fluctuations in price than United States corporations. The Balanced Fund is subject to yield and share price variances with changes in interst rates and market condidtions. Investors should note that if interest rates rise significantly from current levels, bond total returns will decline and may even turn negative in the short-term. There is also a chance that some of the Balanced Fund s holdings may have their credit rating downgraded or may default. Investments in debt securities typically decrease in value when interest rates rise. This risk is usually greater for longer-term debt securities. Investments in lower rated and non-rated securities present a greater risk of loss to principal and interest than higher rated securities. This commentary includes forward-looking statements such as economic predictions and portfolio manager opinions. The statements are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. No predictions, forecasts, outlooks, expectations or beliefs are guaranteed. ALPS Distributors, Inc. is the Distributor for Mairs & Power Funds. MAIRS & POWER MNP000615 1/31/2016 W-1520 FIRST NATIONAL BANK BUILDING 332 MINNESOTA STREET ST. PAUL, MN 55101 TEL. 800-304-7404 FAX. 651-287-0119 mairsandpower.com