Country Operations Business Plan Project Number: 26194 August 2013 Samoa 2014 2016
CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as of 11 August 2013) Currency Unit tala (ST) ST$1.00 = $0.4256 $1.00 = ST2.3496 ADB ADF GDP IMF TA ABBREVIATIONS Asian Development Bank Asian Development Fund gross domestic product International Monetary Fund Technical Assistance NOTES (i) (ii) The fiscal year (FY) of the government and its agencies ends on 30 June. FY before a calendar year denotes the year in which the fiscal year ends, e.g., FY2013 ends on 30 June 2013. In this report, $ refers to US dollars unless otherwise stated. Vice President S. Groff, Operations 2 Director General X. Yao, Pacific Department (PARD) Regional Director A. Ruthenberg, Pacific Subregional Office (SPSO), PARD Team leader Team members C. Currie, Senior Country Economist, PARD S. Blaik, Senior Urban Development Specialist, PARD M. Betham-Vaai, ADB/World Bank Liaison Officer, PARD T. Faletau, Safeguards Officer, PARD P. Hattle, Energy Specialist, PARD M. Lotolele, Senior Economics Officer, PARD M. Melei, Country Specialist, PARD S. B. Olsson, Country Coordination Officer, PARD M. Paniagua, Unit Head, Project Administration, PARD L. Tora, Senior Public Management Officer, PARD In preparing any country program or strategy, financing any project, or by making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.
CONTENTS Page I. CONSISTENCY OF THE BUSINESS PLAN WITH THE PACIFIC APPROACH 2010 2014 1 II. INDICATIVE RESOURCE PARAMETERS 2 III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES TO LENDING AND NONLENDING PROGRAMS 2 APPENDIXES 1. Updated Country Strategy Results Framework 3 2. List of Linked Documents 6 3. Indicative Assistance Pipeline 7 4. Assistance Program for the Current Year 9
I. CONSISTENCY OF THE BUSINESS PLAN WITH THE PACIFIC APPROACH 2010 2014 1. The Country Operations Business Plan 2014 2016 is aligned with the Asian Development Bank s (ADB s) Pacific Approach 2010 2014, 1 which aims to deliver sustained, resilient, and improved standards of living for the people of the Pacific and serves as the country partnership strategy for Samoa. 2 The Pacific Approach closely aligns with the aims of the Government of Samoa s Strategy for the Development of Samoa, 2012 2016. 3 Both identify operational priorities in energy, information and communication technology, and water and sanitation. Public sector management and an improved private sector environment are recognized as key drivers for change. An updated country partnership strategy results framework is in Appendix 1. 2. While Samoa has demonstrated remarkable resilience in recovering from the global financial crisis and a devastating tsunami in 2009, it has yet to return to economic growth levels achieved early in the decade. Weak global demand, falling competitiveness in the productive sectors (particularly tourism and agriculture), and Samoa s vulnerability to natural disasters have adversely affected Samoa s growth. In December 2012, tropical cyclone Evan caused damage and losses estimated at more than $210 million, equivalent to around 30% of gross domestic product (GDP). Transport, power and water, and sanitation infrastructure suffered significant damage, as did schools and housing. Recovery and reconstruction of essential infrastructure is expected to take 2 to 3 years. The estimated GDP growth rate for FY2013 has been lowered from 2.5% to 0.9% in view of the loss of output across the productive sectors. 3. The government s budget deficit was 4.5% of GDP in FY2012, down from 6.4% in FY2011. Through FY2013 s first half, the government continued its fiscal consolidation program. However, cyclone impacts (including a sharp decline in tax revenues and a supplementary budget for additional government spending to restore essential infrastructure) is estimated to have raised the overall fiscal deficit to 6.9% of GDP for FY2013 with a projection of 7 8% of GDP in FY2014. 4. Samoa s capacity to mobilize domestic resources is limited, leaving it reliant on bilateral and multilateral partners to finance the higher deficit. A joint International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank debt sustainability analysis estimates that a rise in concessional loans from development partners could raise the ratio of debt to GDP to a peak of 58% in FY2016. That figure is well above the 40% of GDP limit set by the authorities. Thus, the IMF has changed its assessment of Samoa from a moderate to a high risk of debt distress. 4 To reduce the fiscal deficit and bring down public debt, as well as raise living standards and reduce poverty, Samoa has committed to a medium-term fiscal framework and strong public sector reform agenda. 5. With ADB support, the government has made much progress in implementing reforms. That support has included providing technical assistance (TA) to improve the mobilization of land as an economic factor of production, and, through the Private Sector Development Initiative, assisting the government to improve the performance of poorly performing public 1 ADB. 2009. ADB s Pacific Approach, 2010 2014. Manila (accessible from list of linked documents in Appendix 2). 2 Memo approved by the Vice President in Charge, Operations 2 on 1 July 2011, paragraph 2b. 3 Government of Samoa. 2012. Strategy for the Development of Samoa, 2012 2016. Apia (accessible from list of linked documents in Appendix 2). 4 International Monetary Fund. 2013. Samoa: Joint IMF/World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis. Washington D.C.
2 enterprises and the environment for private sector development. 5 Working with the government, the development partners have developed a joint policy action matrix that will guide and prioritize critical public financial management reforms over the coming year. Connectivity is seen as a major factor in stimulating growth and development and reducing poverty and hardship. To this end, ADB, with the World Bank, is mapping out opportunities for infrastructure investments, support for regulatory frameworks, investments in information and communication technology, and support for communication strategies for developing potential for improved connectivity. II. INDICATIVE RESOURCE PARAMETERS 6. As a group A country, Samoa is eligible to access the Asian Development Fund (ADF). In June 2013, ADB revised Samoa s grant share for ADF resources from 50% to 100% in view of the joint IMF and World Bank debt sustainability assessment which shifted Samoa from moderate to high risk of debt distress. Samoa has an unutilized ADF allocation from 2012 of $14.0 million ($17.57 minus the 20% volume discount for grants). The government has confirmed that it will utilize this for a two-tranche, policy-based operation for which Board approval will be sought in September 2013. Following the results of the 2012 country performance assessment exercise conducted under the performance-based allocation policy, the 2013 2014 ADF allocation for Samoa is confirmed at $14.6 million (inclusive of a 20% volume discount). The indicative 2015 2016 allocation is $14.96 million. The actual allocation for 2015 2016 is subject to a revised estimate of ADF commitment authority, country performance assessment outcomes, and the country s risk of debt distress. 6 An indicative assistance pipeline for ADF lending products is in Appendix 3, Table A3.1. 7. As agreed with the government, ADB TA will focus on (i) the third phase of customary land reforms, (ii) preparation of the Samoa submarine cable project, (iii) assistance with public sector financial management, and (iv) identifying port infrastructure development needs. The country operations business plan will be supported by regional TA for energy efficiency, stateowned enterprise reform (the Private Sector Development Initiative), and public sector management. Information on the indicative nonlending assistance pipeline is in Appendix 3, Table A3.2. III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES TO LENDING AND NONLENDING PROGRAMS 8. Lending and nonlending programs have been adjusted to conform with the indicative resource parameters for 2014 2016. In 2013, the renewable energy project has been extended to include power sector rehabilitation in light of the impact of Cyclone Evan. To accommodate the larger project, ADF funding in 2013 has been increased from $5 million to $10 million (with $5 million being front-loaded from the 2015 2016 allocation). A grant of $8.21 million from the pilot Disaster Response Facility will also be used to fund this project, bringing the total to $18.21m. The Public Sector Financial Management Program in 2013 is to receive $14 million in grants, with the government indicating it intends to use the entirety of unutilized ADF sources from 2012. For 2015, the program has been reduced from $15 million to $6.5 million in light of expected improvements in the macroeconomic climate and in the government s fiscal position. A Ports Infrastructure Development Project of $15 million has been included as standby in 2016, subject to the outcome of project preparatory TA and the availability of ADF resources. 5 ADB. 2006. Private Sector Development Initiative. Manila. (TA 6353-REG). 6 ADB. 2004. Review of the Asian Development Bank s Policy on the Performance-Based Allocation of Asian Development Fund Resources. Manila. (accessible from list of linked documents in Appendix 2).
UPDATED COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY RESULTS FRAMEWORK (Board endorsement of the Pacific Approach 2010 2014: 2009: Country Operations Business Plan: August 2013) Country Development Goals Changes from Last COBP In support of the vision for improved quality of life for all, the theme for the Samoa Development Strategy 2012 2016 is Boosting Productivity for Sustainable Development Sectors Selected by ADB Sector Outcomes that ADB Government Sector Contributes to and Objectives Indicators 1. Energy: (Strategy 2020 Core Area 1: Infrastructure) First Samoa National Energy Policy, 2007. To enhance the quality of life for all through access to reliable, affordable, and environmentally sound energy services and supply The Post Disaster Needs Assessment 2013 highlights the need for rehabilitation and reconstruction in the power sector. Promote efficient and effective coordination and management of the renewable energy sector Provide efficient, affordable, and sustainable electricity services Provide access to sustainable and reliable electricity services at affordable prices ADB Areas of Intervention Renewable Energy and Power Sector Rehabilitation Project (2013) ADB Indicative Resource and Thematic Priorities $18.21 million (28.4% of COBP envelope) plus $1.0 million cofinancing, of which: ENV = 70% EGM = 20% PSD = 10% RCI = 0% 2. Transport and information and communication technology (Strategy 2020, core area 1: Infrastructure) SDS 2012-2015, Priority Area: Economic Policies, Goal 1: Sustained macroeconomics stability Widely available and affordable information and communication services to improve Samoa s economic performance and performance of public service Population of Samoa has access to good quality internet services at affordable prices $22.5 million (35% of COBP envelope) of which $7.5 million approved by end of 2014, comprising: ENV = 40% EGM = 40% PSD = 10% RCI = 10% Changes from Last COBP This project was formerly titled Power Sector Expansion Project Phase II An allocation of $10 million in grants has been included in the lending pipeline for 2013. This includes $5 million brought forward from the lending pipeline in 2015. Regional funds of $11 million will also be provided. Appendix 1 3
3. Water Supply, Sanitation, and Waste Management: (Strategy 2020, Core Area 1: Infrastructure) Water for Life: Water Sector Improve the sanitation system Community Sanitation $0.0 million, 0% of COBP Plan and Framework for of 470 households and Project (2012) envelope, of which: Action, 2008 2014, which is increase awareness of correct ENV = 80% formulated within the design of septic systems EGM = 20% context of the 2007 National among 15,000 households PSD = 0% Water Resources Policy, RCI = 0% aiming to half by 2015 the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation 4. Education: (Strategy 2020, Core Area 5: Education) Based on Goal 3: Improved Education Outcomes in the Strategy for the Development of Samoa, 2008 2012. Consistent with the Strategy for the Development of Samoa, 2012 2016 Percentage of students at risk in year 4 and 6 Samoa Primary Education Literacy Levels tests in English, Samoan, and mathematics reduced to under 15% by 2012 100% net primary enrollment achieved by 2012 85% total secondary net enrollment by 2012 Increased enrollment at tertiary education level (from 2006 levels) by 2012 Primary completion rate (year 8) increased from 93% (2006) to 98% by 2012 National transition rate to secondary schools increases from 89% (2006) to 98% by 2012 Improved curriculum and assessment practices, including e-curriculum Improved education outcomes: Improving the quality of teaching and learning in secondary schools Improving access to education through information and communication technology Strengthening education management and coordination $0.0 million, 0.0% of COBP envelope, of which: ENV = 10% EGM = 40% GEN = 50% PSD = 0% RCI = 0% 4 Appendix 1
Improved school facilities and equipment, including establishing school 5. Private Sector Development: (Strategy 2020, Drivers of change 1: Private Sector Development) SDS 2012-2014 Priority Area, Social Policies: Goal 2: Work with the private sector in order to achieve economies of scale through commercial farming/ upscaling of agro-industrial ventures. Improve the enabling environment for agribusiness expansion Increase in profitable agribusiness enterprise models Establish an investment fund Provide infrastructure support services $5 million, 7.8% of COBP envelope, of which: ENV = 10% EGM = 40% GEN = 30% PSD = 100% RCI = 0% 6. Public Sector Management: 1: (Strategy 2020: Drivers of change 2: Good Governance and Capacity Development) Continue to strengthen public sector management Implement and monitor the debt management strategy Implement and review the aid policy Government of Samoa and Development Partners Joint Policy Action Matrix Policy based grant for public financial management and climate resilience: - State-owned enterprise reforms - Business regulatory environment $20.5 million, 31.9% of total COBP envelope ($14 million for approval in 2013), of which: ENV = 0% EGM = 40% GEN = 30% PSD = 20% RCI = 0% ADB = Asian Development Bank, COBP = country operations business plan, EGM = effective gender mainstreaming, ENV = environmental sustainability, GEN = gender equity, PSD = private sector development, RCI = regional cooperation and integration. Source: Asian Development Bank. Appendix 1 5
6 Appendix 2 LIST OF LINKED DOCUMENTS http://www.adb.org/documents/cobp/?id=sam-2014 1. ADB s Pacific Approach, 2010 2014 2. Strategy for the Development of Samoa, 2012 2016: Boosting Productivity for Sustainable Development 3. International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2013. Samoa: Joint IMF/World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis 4. Review of the Asian Development Bank s Policy on the Performance-Based Allocation of Asian Development Fund Resources 5. Mainstreaming Climate Change in ADB s Operations: Climate Change Implementation Plan, Pacific Islands Region (2009 2015)
INDICATIVE ASSISTANCE PIPELINE Table A3.1: Lending Products, 2014 2016 Year Cost ($ million) Targeting of ADB Project/Program Name Classification Theme Division PDA Total OCR Loans Grants Total Gov t finance Primary PPTA / ADF Co- Sector 2014 Firm Private Sector Development Project PSD GI PSD PLCO 2012 5.00 5.00 5.00 Samoa Submarine Cable Project TCT GI GRO PAUS 2013 18.50 a 18.50 18.50 Total 23.50 23.50 23.50 2015 Firm Public Sector Financial Management Program PSM GI GRO SPSO None 6.50 6.50 6.50 Total 6.50 6.50 6.50 2016 Standby Ports Infrastructure Development TCT GI GRO PATE 2014 15.00 b 15.00 15.00 Project Total 15.00 15.00 15.00 ADB = Asian Development Bank; ADF = Asian Development Fund; GI = general intervention; Gov t = government; GRO = economic growth; OCR = ordinary capital resources; PATE = Transport, Energy, and Natural Resources Division; PAUS = Urban, Social Development, and Public Management; PDA = project design advance; PLCO = Pacific Liaison and Coordination Office; PPTA = project preparatory technical assistance; PSD = private sector development; PSM = public sector management; SPSO = Pacific Subregional Office; TCT = transport and information and communication technology. a Includes $11 million of ADF regional funds and $7.5 million country ADF allocation. b Subject to availability of ADF. Source: Asian Development Bank estimates. Appendix 3 7
Table A3.2: Nonlending Products and Services, 2014 2016 Sources of Funding Others Assistance Name Sector Division Assistance Type Source Amount ($ 000) Source Amount ($ 000) Total ($ 000) 2014 Public Sector Financial Management PSM SPSO CDTA TASF 50 50 Ports Masterplan Update Total ADB TCT PATE PATA TASF 25 75 25 75 8 Appendix 3 2015 Ports Infrastructure Development Project Total TCT PATE PPTA TASF 75 75 75 75 2016 None ADB = Asian Development Bank; CDTA = capacity development technical assistance; PATA = policy and advisory technical assistance, PATE = Transport, Energy and Natural Resources Division; PPTA = project preparatory technical assistance; PSM = public sector management; SPSO = Pacific Subregional Office; TASF = Technical Assistance Special Fund; TCT = transport and information and communication technology. Source: Asian Development Bank estimates.
ASSISTANCE PROGRAM FOR THE CURRENT YEAR Table A4.1: Lending Products, 2013 Year Cost ($ million) Targeting of ADB Project/Program Name Classification Theme Division PDA Total OCR Loans Grants Total Gov t finance Primary PPTA / ADF Co- Sector 2013 Firm Renewable Energy and Power Sector Rehabilitation Project ENE GI ENV PATE 2012 23.83 18.21 a 18.21 4.62 1.00 b Public Sector Financial Management Program PSM GI GRO SPSO None 14.00 14.00 14.00 Total 37.83 32.21 32.21 4.62 1.00 ADB = Asian Development Bank; ADF = Asian Development Fund; ENE = energy; ENV = environmental sustainability; GI = general intervention; Gov t = government; GRO = economic growth; OCR = ordinary capital resources; PATE = Transport, Energy, and Natural Resources Division; PDA = project design advance; PPTA = project preparatory technical assistance; PSM = public sector management; SPSO = Pacific Subregional Office. Source: Asian Development Bank estimates. a Includes $10 million ADF and $8.21 million Disaster Response Facility. b Includes $1million tbc Table A4.2: Nonlending Products and Services, 2013 Assistance Type Sources of Funding ADB Others Amount ($ 000) Source Amount ($'000) Assistance Name Sector Division Source 2013 Customary Land Reform Phase III PSM SPSO PATA TASF 40 40 Total 40 40 ADB = Asian Development Bank, PATA = policy and advisory technical assistance, PSM = public sector management, SPSO = Pacific Subregional Office, TASF = Technical Assistance Special Fund. Source: Asian Development Bank estimates. Total ($'000) Appendix 4 9