On Generalized Tian Ji s Horse Racing Strategy



Similar documents
Discrete Mathematics and Probability Theory Spring 2014 Anant Sahai Note 13

CHAPTER 4: NET PRESENT VALUE

Lecture 13. Lecturer: Jonathan Kelner Scribe: Jonathan Pines (2009)

Learning objectives. Duc K. Nguyen - Corporate Finance 21/10/2014

ECONOMICS. Calculating loan interest no

Department of Computer Science, University of Otago

SECTION 1.5 : SUMMATION NOTATION + WORK WITH SEQUENCES

Week 3 Conditional probabilities, Bayes formula, WEEK 3 page 1 Expected value of a random variable

A probabilistic proof of a binomial identity

Soving Recurrence Relations

The Binomial Multi- Section Transformer

CHAPTER 3 THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY

The Stable Marriage Problem

5 Boolean Decision Trees (February 11)

Analyzing Longitudinal Data from Complex Surveys Using SUDAAN

In nite Sequences. Dr. Philippe B. Laval Kennesaw State University. October 9, 2008

Estimating Probability Distributions by Observing Betting Practices

Elementary Theory of Russian Roulette


I. Chi-squared Distributions

MARTINGALES AND A BASIC APPLICATION

Automatic Tuning for FOREX Trading System Using Fuzzy Time Series

CS103A Handout 23 Winter 2002 February 22, 2002 Solving Recurrence Relations

A Mathematical Perspective on Gambling

Incremental calculation of weighted mean and variance

Tradigms of Astundithi and Toyota

Entropy of bi-capacities

Taking DCOP to the Real World: Efficient Complete Solutions for Distributed Multi-Event Scheduling

BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS Financial and Economic Appraisal using Spreadsheets

arxiv: v2 [math.pr] 13 Oct 2009

Hypothesis testing. Null and alternative hypotheses

Building Blocks Problem Related to Harmonic Series

Present Value Factor To bring one dollar in the future back to present, one uses the Present Value Factor (PVF): Concept 9: Present Value

Modified Line Search Method for Global Optimization

The analysis of the Cournot oligopoly model considering the subjective motive in the strategy selection

A Recursive Formula for Moments of a Binomial Distribution

Convexity, Inequalities, and Norms

Confidence Intervals for One Mean

Lesson 17 Pearson s Correlation Coefficient

PROCEEDINGS OF THE YEREVAN STATE UNIVERSITY AN ALTERNATIVE MODEL FOR BONUS-MALUS SYSTEM

To c o m p e t e in t o d a y s r e t a i l e n v i r o n m e n t, y o u n e e d a s i n g l e,

Hypergeometric Distributions

THE ABRACADABRA PROBLEM

CHAPTER 7: Central Limit Theorem: CLT for Averages (Means)

1 Correlation and Regression Analysis

Subject CT5 Contingencies Core Technical Syllabus

Investigation of Atwood s machines as Series and Parallel networks

Domain 1: Designing a SQL Server Instance and a Database Solution

COMPARISON OF THE EFFICIENCY OF S-CONTROL CHART AND EWMA-S 2 CONTROL CHART FOR THE CHANGES IN A PROCESS

Patentability of Computer Software and Business Methods

University of California, Los Angeles Department of Statistics. Distributions related to the normal distribution

*The most important feature of MRP as compared with ordinary inventory control analysis is its time phasing feature.

Installment Joint Life Insurance Actuarial Models with the Stochastic Interest Rate

How To Solve The Homewor Problem Beautifully

THE ARITHMETIC OF INTEGERS. - multiplication, exponentiation, division, addition, and subtraction

Transient Vibration of the single degree of freedom systems.

Vladimir N. Burkov, Dmitri A. Novikov MODELS AND METHODS OF MULTIPROJECTS MANAGEMENT

Using a Packet Sniffer to Analyze the Efficiency and Power of Encryption Techniques Used to Protect Data Over a Computer Network

Notes on exponential generating functions and structures.

Chapter 7 Methods of Finding Estimators

FM4 CREDIT AND BORROWING

Institute of Actuaries of India Subject CT1 Financial Mathematics

Chapter 7 - Sampling Distributions. 1 Introduction. What is statistics? It consist of three major areas:

Asymptotic Growth of Functions

hp calculators HP 12C Statistics - average and standard deviation Average and standard deviation concepts HP12C average and standard deviation

1. MATHEMATICAL INDUCTION

Information for Programs Seeking Initial Accreditation

WHEN IS THE (CO)SINE OF A RATIONAL ANGLE EQUAL TO A RATIONAL NUMBER?

Example 2 Find the square root of 0. The only square root of 0 is 0 (since 0 is not positive or negative, so those choices don t exist here).

Lecture 4: Cauchy sequences, Bolzano-Weierstrass, and the Squeeze theorem

Professional Networking

UC Berkeley Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science. EE 126: Probablity and Random Processes. Solutions 9 Spring 2006

Volatility of rates of return on the example of wheat futures. Sławomir Juszczyk. Rafał Balina

Application and research of fuzzy clustering analysis algorithm under micro-lecture English teaching mode

where: T = number of years of cash flow in investment's life n = the year in which the cash flow X n i = IRR = the internal rate of return

ODBC. Getting Started With Sage Timberline Office ODBC

Center, Spread, and Shape in Inference: Claims, Caveats, and Insights

Definition. A variable X that takes on values X 1, X 2, X 3,...X k with respective frequencies f 1, f 2, f 3,...f k has mean

LECTURE 13: Cross-validation

5.3. Generalized Permutations and Combinations

How to use what you OWN to reduce what you OWE

Chapter 6: Variance, the law of large numbers and the Monte-Carlo method

How Euler Did It. In a more modern treatment, Hardy and Wright [H+W] state this same theorem as. n n+ is perfect.

Approximating Area under a curve with rectangles. To find the area under a curve we approximate the area using rectangles and then use limits to find

THE REGRESSION MODEL IN MATRIX FORM. For simple linear regression, meaning one predictor, the model is. for i = 1, 2, 3,, n

Determining the sample size

CS103X: Discrete Structures Homework 4 Solutions

THIN SEQUENCES AND THE GRAM MATRIX PAMELA GORKIN, JOHN E. MCCARTHY, SANDRA POTT, AND BRETT D. WICK

Irreducible polynomials with consecutive zero coefficients

Factors of sums of powers of binomial coefficients

INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE COUNCIL (IPC)

Annuities Under Random Rates of Interest II By Abraham Zaks. Technion I.I.T. Haifa ISRAEL and Haifa University Haifa ISRAEL.

Infinite Sequences and Series

CHAPTER 3 DIGITAL CODING OF SIGNALS

CS100: Introduction to Computer Science

Here are a couple of warnings to my students who may be here to get a copy of what happened on a day that you missed.

PSYCHOLOGICAL STATISTICS

Describing Income Inequality

NEW HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTATIONAL METHODS FOR MORTGAGES AND ANNUITIES. Yuri Shestopaloff,

Non-life insurance mathematics. Nils F. Haavardsson, University of Oslo and DNB Skadeforsikring

Transcription:

Source: Iterdiscipliary Sciece Reviews, Vol. 37, o., pp. 87-93, ; DOI:.79/3888Z.4 O Geeralized Tia Ji s Horse Racig Strategy Jia-Ju SHU School of echaical & Aerospace gieerig, ayag Techological Uiversity, 5 ayag Aveue, Sigapore 639798 ABSTRACT: Tia Ji s horse racig strategy, a faous Chiese leged, costitutes a proisig cocept to be applied to iportat issues i today s copetitive eviroet; this strategy is elaborated o ad aalyzed by exaiig the geeral case. The atheatical forulatio cocerig the calculatio of wiig, drawig or losig cobiatios ad probabilities is preseted to illustrate the iterestig isights o how aciet philosophies could proote thikig i busiess copetitiveess, i particular, the wisdo behid sacrificig the part for the beefit of the whole or sacrificig the short-ter objectives i order to gai the log-ter goal. Keywords: Tia Ji s horse racig strategy; uleria uber; Chiese leged. Itroductio I the oder world today, the survival of the fittest holds for geeral people, but the survival of the cuig is possible for itellectuals. owadays, with the developet of society, ost copaies face ore itese copetitio, especially for the weaker ad saller oes. I actuality, the stroger ad larger copaies possess ay ore advatages ad better talets tha the weaker ad saller oes. Despite the fact, the strogest of warriors has his Achilles heel. I such a copetitive world whereby alost everythig ca be rivaled i, it is ecessary for the weaker ad saller copaies to pla the order of egageet i order to copete with stroger ad larger rivals. This is just like playig a tea sport. The coach of the weaker tea ust carefully orgaize his players i suitable order of appearace. The idea is to sacrifice the part for the beefit of the whole or to sacrifice the short-ter objectives i order to gai the log-ter goal. This procedure is very siilar to Tia Ji s horse racig strategy, a faous Chiese leged. I this study, the geeralized Tia Ji s horse racig strategy is aalyzed atheatically to provide a iterestig isight ito decisio akig i dyaic ad highly copetitive global eviroets. The correct applicatio of the priciple of gaiig overall victory with partial loss ay eable the iferior side to gai superiority ad wi victory with a surprise ove. Tia Ji s horse racig strategy I aciet Chia, there was a era kow as Warrig States Period (43 BC BC) durig which Chia was ot a uified epire but divided by idepedet Seve Warrig States with coflictig iterests, oe of which was Qi State located i easter Chia. Fro 356 BC to 3 BC, the ruler of Qi State was Tia Yi-Qi (378 BC 3 BC), Kig Wei of Qi. The story of Tia Ji s horse racig

strategy, which is well-kow ad popular i Chia today, was origially recorded [] i the biography of Su Bi (? 36 BC), as a ilitary strategist i Qi State ruled by Kig Wei of Qi: Geeral Tia Ji, a high-rakig ary coader i Qi State, frequetly bet heavily o horse races with Kig Wei of Qi. Observig that their horses, divided ito three differet speed classes, were well-atched, Su Bi the advised Tia Ji, Go ahead ad stake heavily! I shall see that you wi. Takig Su Bi at his word, Tia Ji bet a thousad gold pieces with the Kig. Just as the race was to start, Su Bi couseled Tia Ji, Pit your slow horse agaist the Kig s fast horse, your fast horse agaist the Kig s ediu horse, ad your ediu horse agaist the Kig s slow horse. Whe all three horse races were fiished, although Tia Ji lost the first race, his horses prevailed i the ext two, i the ed gettig a thousad gold pieces fro the Kig. Aazedly, the victorious strategy (as did Tia Ji after followig Su Bi s advice) was rearkable to be achieved 3 years log before operatios research ad gae theory were iveted []. This was oly oe way that Tia Ji could clai a victory over the Kig, as illustrated i Figure. All the other optios would preset Tia Ji with loss. Su Bi s victorious advice, sice called Tia Ji s horse racig strategy, ca be exteded to a sceario where Tia Ji ad the Kig would race horses withi a disjoit stratificatio of a arbitrary uber differet speed classes. I order to facilitate the aalysis of the geeralized Tia Ji s -horse racig strategy, the horses owed by two players: Tia Ji (T ) ad the Kig ( K ) are deoted respectively by T ad K, where the subscript,,, is defied as player T s or K s horse i the th speed class. I this sceario of -horse racig, T s horse i the faster class is able to beat K s horse i the slower class, but T s horse is uable to beat K s horse i the sae or faster class. Without losig geerality, the relative racig capabilities of horses are T K T K for ay,,,, where the sybol eas uable to beat ad the larger subscript correspods to the slower class.

Figure : Tia Ji s horse racig strategy T ad K would choose the sae class of -horse racig, that is, the pairwise racig is T T T. Because T s horse is slower tha K s oe i the sae class K K K T K,,,,, T s horses would lose all races. The essece of Tia Ji s horse racig strategy is that the origially-classified racig appearace of T s horses should be shifted oe place i order to achieve the T s best result. The best strategy for the geeralized Tia Ji s -horse racig, T T T suggested by Su Bi, should be the pairwise racig. T would clai a victory K K K of the -horse racig with oe loss ad wis. If K always chooses the racig appearace K, K,, K agaist T s best respose T, T,, T, T would wi every bet. aturally, K would soo realize that the racig appearace K, K,, is resultig i recurret losses. K would becoe a active player ad cosider a alterative racig appearace to tur the racig aroud. A copetitive situatio is ecoutered for each player copetig T T T with a total of! cobiatorial pairwise racig (where is the K K K perutatio) available to T ad K. The above explaatio idicates that T would lose all races for the uit perutatio (as T s worst strategy) ad T would clai a victory with oe loss ad wis for the shift perutatio (as T s best strategy). The the atural K 3

questio is what is T s wiig probability for radoly-pairwise racig betwee T s ad K s horses. The equivalet questio is how ay perutatios are available to T as T s victorious strategies. Theore : The uber of T havig exactly wis i -horse racig is the uleria uber [3],!,, the uber of perutatios o,,, with!! exactly excedaces. Proof A excedace of the perutatio o,, ad the uleria uber,, wi is K T, that is,, is defied as ay idex such that,, is defied as the uber of the perutatio o, with exactly excedaces [4]. It is obvious that the existece coditio of T havig oe for ay idex. To deterie the uber of T s wis is equivalet to coutig the uber of, which is a excedace of the perutatio i the parlace of cobiatorics. So the uber of T havig exactly wis i -horse racig is the,. The detailed proof for the suatio forula of the uleria uber, uleria uber!,, is give as follows.!! There are two ways of gettig a -perutatio with excedaces fro a - perutatio by isertig the etry. ither the -perutatio has excedaces, ad the isertio of does ot for a ew excedace, or excedaces, ad the isertio of does for a ew excedace. I the first case, the etry is placed at the ed, or at the positio of oe of the excedaces ad the replaced oe is oved ito the ed. I the secod case, the etry is placed at the positio of oe of the o-excedaces ad the replaced oe is oved ito the ed. The desired recurrece is obtaied as,,, for all. (T)! ote that for bioial coefficiet,,!!. Therefore, we have 4

5,,,,,, where the last step uses (T) ad,,. By atheatical iductio o, the above expressio ca be used to prove the Worpitzky s idetity., all for (T) Usig (T) with,, ad, we get.,,,,,!!! The theore is proved. I view of the syetry property of the uleria uber, that is,,,, Theore ca be expressed equivaletly as follows i Theore. Theore : The uber of T havig exactly o-wis i -horse racig is the uleria uber.

I both theores, it is iterestig to ote that the geeralized Tia Ji s horse racig strategy, as the extesio of the faous Chiese leged, ca be viewed as a practical deostratio of applyig the uleria uber. There are oly three outcoes for T, aely the wiig cobiatio (, )! (, ) odd eve with probability! (, ) (,! ) odd, eve the drawig cobiatio (, ) odd eve with probability! (, ) odd, eve or the losig cobiatio (, )! odd eve with probability! (, ) odd, eve which are show i Table. horses Table : Cobiatio ad probability with variable uber of horses Total! Wiig Drawig Losig Cobiatio (with probability) (%) (%) (%) (%) (5%) (5%) 3 6 (7%) (%) 5 (83%) 4 4 (4%) (46%) (5%) 5 7 (3%) (%) 93 (78%) 6 7 58 (8%) 3 (4%) 36 (5%) 7 54 3 (6%) (%) 378 (74%) 8 43 454 (%) 569 (39%) 6 (5%) 9 3688 3345 (9%) (%) 59535 (7%) 3688 5446 (4%) 3354 (36%) 844 (5%) 6

Probability Probability Figure : Tred of probability for odd-ubered horses..8.6.4. Wiig Drawig Losig 3 5 7 9 odd-ubered horses Figure 3: Tred of probability for eve-ubered horses.6.5.4.3.. Wiig Drawig Losig 4 6 8 eve-ubered horses 7

Probabilities for odd- or eve- ubered horses are plotted respectively i Figures ad 3. Fro the results illustrated above, the probabilities follow the uleria distributio ad there are two detectable characteristics. First, the case of odd-ubered horse racig has o drawig, which drawig happes oly i the case of eve-ubered horse racig. Secod, the losig probabilities of ay eve-ubered horse racig are always at the costat 5% regardless of horse uber ivolved. I the odd-ubered horse racig, the wiig ad losig probabilities coverge to the costat 5% as horse uber icreases due to o drawig; whereas i the eve-ubered horse racig, the wiig ad drawig probabilities coverge to a costat 5% as horse uber icreases due to the costat 5% losig. Overall, the wiig probability of the odd-ubered horse racig is uch higher tha that of the adjacet eve-ubered cases, for exaple, 3% of 5 is uch higher tha 4% of 4 ad 8% of 6. This shows that odd-ubered horse racig gives a opportuity of wiig better tha a eveubered case does. This iplies that the best cobat uits should be odd-ubered. Of course, as the cobat efficiecy would be gettig better as icreases, the difficulty of cotrollig uch large cobat uits would be ecoutered. o drawig occurs i the odd-ubered horse racig, which eas that a decisive outcoe ust be reached istead of a staleate. ore iportatly, Figures ad 3 suggest that the ore horses ivolved, the larger, the higher is the wiig probability. Philosophically, it is typically the epitoe of wiig i ubers. 3 Cocludig Rearks This paper is a geeralizatio of the atheatical versio of Tia Ji s horse racig strategy ivolvig a oe-to-oe cotest betwee two sets of racig horses withi a disjoit stratificatio of speed classes. The forulatio of deteriig the wiig, drawig ad losig probabilities of the geeralized Tia Ji s horse racig strategy for ay give uber of racig horses is discussed. Based o the uleria uber, the way of calculatig the uber of havig exactly wis i -horse racig is straightforward, thereby eablig us to fid the probability of wiig a etire gae by havig ore wis tha losses. The wisdo behid Tia Ji s horse racig strategy is to sacrifice the part for the beefit of the whole or to sacrifice the short-ter objectives i order to gai the log-ter goal. As a exaple of the geeralized Tia Ji s horse racig strategy, the atheatical treatet of how to sacrifice could proote philosophical thikig i dealig with coplicated situatios. I busiess, product diversificatio requires very differet fiacial, hua ad techological resources. Trade-offs are ievitable. A copay has to decide which part should be sacrificed for the beefit of the whole or which short-ter objectives should be sacrificed i order to gai the log-ter goal. Studyig the theory of Tia Ji s horse racig strategy provides iterestig isight ito decisio akig i dyaic ad highly copetitive global eviroets. Refereces [] Si-a, Qia (9 BC) Su Zi Wu Qi Lie Zhua (Biographies of Su Zi ad Wu Qi) i Shi Ji (Records of History), 65(5), (i Chiese). glish traslatio by Yag, Xia Yi ad Yag, Gladys (8) Selectios fro Records of the Historia, I, Foreig Laguages Press. 8

[] Shu, Jia-Ju, Wag, Qi-We ad Yog, Kia-Ya () DA-based coputig of strategic assiget probles, Physical Review Letters, 6(8), 887. [3] uler, Leohard (755) Istitutioes Calculi Differetialis cu eius vsu i Aalysi Fiitoru ac Doctria Serieru, Ipesis Acadeiae Iperialis Scietiaru, Petropolitaae, (i Lati). glish traslatio by Blato, J.D. () Foudatios of Differetial Calculus, Spriger. [4] Rose, Keeth H. () Hadbook of Discrete ad Cobiatorial atheatics, CRC Press. 9