2013 2017 Business and Management Plan
2013 2017 Business and Management Plan Webcast March, 19th 2013
3 DISCLAIMER FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: DISCLAIMER The presentation may contain forward-looking statements about future events within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are not based on historical facts and are not assurances of future results. Such forward-looking statements merely reflect the Company s current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that these statements are only projections and may differ materially from actual future results or events. Readers are referred to the documents filed by the Company with the SEC, specifically the Company s most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, including, among other things, risks relating to general economic and business conditions, including crude oil and other commodity prices, refining margins and prevailing exchange rates, uncertainties inherent in making estimates of our oil and gas reserves including recently discovered oil and gas reserves, international and Brazilian political, economic and social developments, receipt of governmental approvals and licenses and our ability to obtain financing. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events or for any other reason. Figures for 2013 on are estimates or targets. All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement, and you should not place reliance on any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation. NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES: CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that we are not permitted to present in documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K because such terms do not qualify as proved, probable or possible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation S-X.
Million bpd 2013-2017 BMP: Maintenance of the Production Curve 5,000 5.00 4,000 4.00 3,000 3.00 2,000 2.00 The same production targets from the 2012-16 BMP were kept. 2013 target is still ±2% of 2.022 kbpd, due to maintenance and performance of new assets: production units and drilling rigs. 2.0 Oil and NGL Production (million bpd) Sapinhoá Pilot (Cid. São Paulo) Baúna (Cid. Itajaí) Lula NE Pilot (Cid. Paraty) Papa-Terra (P-63) Roncador III (P-55) Norte Pq. Baleias (P-58) Papa-Terra Baleia Azul (P-61) (Cid. Anchieta) 2.0 2.0 ±2% Roncador IV (P-62) Sapinhoá Norte (Cid. Ilhabela) Iracema Sul (Cid. Mangaratiba) Iracema Norte (Cid. Itaguaí) Lula Alto Lula Central Lula Sul (P-66) Franco 1 (P-74) Carioca Lula Norte (P-67) Franco SW (P-75) 2.5 NE de Tupi (P-72) Lula Ext. Sul Iara NW (P-68) (P-71) Lula Oeste Deep Waters (P-69) Sergipe Franco Sul Sul Pq. Baleias (P-76) Maromba Tartaruga Espadarte I Verde e Mestiça Iara Horst (P-70) Parque dos Doces Franco NW (P-77) 2.75 Carcará Entorno de Iara (P-73) Júpiter Bonito Franco Leste Espadarte III Florim 4.2 1,000 1.00 25 new production units will start-up between 2013-17 or 38 new production units will start-up between 2013-20 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Production units in operation 4
Million boed 2013-2017 BMP: Maintenance of the Production Curve The same production targets from the 2012-16 BMP were kept. 2013 target is still ±2% of 2.022 kbpd, due to maintenance and performance of new assets: production units and drilling rigs. 5,00 6.00 006 Oil and NGL Production (million bpd) Oil, NGL and Natural Gas Production (million boe) 5.2 005 5.00 4,00 004 4.00 3.4 4.2 3,00 003 3.00 3.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 ±2% 2.75 2,00 2.5 002 2.00 2.0 2.0 2.0 ±2% 1,00 001 1.00 1905ral 2011 1905ral 2012 1905ral 2013 1905ral 2014 1905ral 2015 1905ral 2016 1905ral 2017 1905ral 2018 1905ral 2019 1905ral 2020 5
Investments and Physical and Financial Monitoring 2012: Alignment of Forecasts and Accomplishments: Physical Progress Tracking Financial Progress R$ Billion Investments in 2012 totaled R$ 84.1 Billion, which represents 101% of the projected in the Plan Annual Investment Investment by Area Main Projects 83.3 +1% 84.1 2% 34% 5% 6% 1,6% 0,4% 51% E&P: Production Development Projects of Baleia Azul (Cid. de Anchieta), Sapinhoá (Cid. de São Paulo), Roncador Modules 3 and 4 (P-55 and P-62) and Papa-Terra (P-61 and P-63). Downstream: RNEST and Comperj. G&P: UFN-III, Bahia Regasification Terminal and UPGN Cabiúnas. Projected 2012 2012-16 BMP 2012 Accomplished E&P Downstream International Corporate Distribution Biofuels International: Production Development Projects of Cascade and Saint-Malo. G&E Individual Physical and Financial Monitoring of 174 projects (S Curves): Average physical realization of 104.8% and financial realization of 110.6%. 6
Physical and Financial Performance: RNEST RNEST: Physical Monitoring Curve RNEST: Financial Monitoring Curve RNEST Construction 33 years after the last refinery (1980) Suape Industrial Complex (PE) Feb/13 Accumulated Physical Realization: 70.6% Accumulated Financial Realization: US$ 11.7 Billion 7
Dec/11 Mar/12 dez/11 Jun/12 Sep/12 Dec/12 dez/12 Mar/13 Dec/11 Mar/12 dez/11 Jun/12 Sep/12 Dec/12 dez/12 Mar/13 Northeast Refinery (RNEST) Physical and Financial Monitoring of the Project: Planning Fullfilled RNEST: Physical Monitoring Curve 2012 Accomplished: 19.9% 2012-16 BMP: 19.7% RNEST: Financial Monitoring Curve 2012 Accomplished: R$ 4.9 bi* 2012-16 BMP: R$ 5.0 bi * Considers R$ 100 Million of claims already negotiated 8
Prices (R$/bbl) Parity: Seeking convergence with International Prices 9 months: +21.9% in Diesel and +14.9% in Gasoline Nov/08 Jan/09 Jan/10 Jan/11 Jan/12 Jan/13 Mar/13 Seeking convergence with international prices. In the last 9 months: 4 Diesel price readjustments, totaling +21.9%, and 2 Gasoline readjustments (+14.9%). Average Brazil Price* x Average USGC Price** 260 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 900 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Gains Losses 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Imported Volumes (Thousand bbl / d) 0 0 ARP USGC (w/ volumes sold in Brazil) ARP Brazil Gasoline Imports Diesel Imports (*) considers Diesel, Gasoline, LPG, Jet Fuel and Fuel Oil. (**) USGC price with domestic market prices. 9
Prices (R$/bbl) Parity: Seeking convergence with International Prices 9 months: +21.9% in Diesel and +14.9% in Gasoline Nov/08 Jan/09 Jan/10 Jan/11 Jan/12 Jan/13 Mar/13 Seeking convergence with international prices. In the last 9 months: 4 Diesel price readjustments, totaling +21.9%, and 2 Gasoline readjustments (+14.9%). Average Brazil Price* x Average USGC Price** 260 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 900 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Gains Losses Brent (US$/bbl): FX Rate (R$/US$): 1Q12 105 1.67 +19% 1Q13 113 1.99 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Imported Volumes (Thousand bbl / d) 0 0 ARP USGC (w/ volumes sold in Brazil) ARP Brazil Gasoline Imports Diesel Imports (*) considers Diesel, Gasoline, LPG, Jet Fuel and Fuel Oil. (**) USGC price with domestic market prices. 10
Exploratory Success and Increase in Reserves More than 3 Discoveries per month between January/2012 and February/2013 53 discoveries in the last 14 months (Jan/12 Feb/13), from which 25 were offshore (15 in Pres-salt) Brazil Discoveries: 53 Offshore: 25 Onshore: 28 Exploratory Success Ratio: 64% Reserves: 15.7 Billion boe RRR¹: 103% for the 21 st consecutive year R/P²: 19.3 years ¹ RRI: Reserves Replacement Ratio ² R/P: Reserve / Production Pre-Salt Discoveries: 15, of which 8 pioneers Exploratory Success Ratio: 82% Reserves: 300 km in the SE region, 55% of GDP 11 11
Pre-Salt Production is a Reality Production reached 300 thousand barrels of oil per day in Feb/20/2013 Pre-Salt Production Data Technological Challenges Surmounted Oil Production reached 300 kbpd (of which 249 kbpd is Petrobras stake), 43% in Santos Basin and 57% in Campos Basin; This level was reached with only 17 producing wells, 6 in Campos Basin and 11 in Campos Basin; Level reached only 7 years after discovery: Campos Basin: 11 years US Gulf of Mexico: 17 years North Sea: 9 years Production of 1 million bpd operated by Petrobras will be reached by 2017 and the 2.1 million bpd threshold will be reached by 2020. High Resolution Seismic: higher exploratory success Geological and numerical modelling: better production behaviour forecast Reduction of well construction time from 134 days in 2006 to 70 day in 2012: lower costs Selection of new materials: lower costs Qualification of new systems for production gathering: higher competitiveness Separation of CO 2 from natural gas in deep waters and reinjection: lower emissions and increase in recovery factor 12
Refining in Brazil: Oil Products Output Oil Products output increases every year and will continue to grow with the start-up of the new refineries. Successive records in oil processing have been broken. Oil Products Output in Brazil (Million bbl / day) Refineries in Operation Refineries under Construction Refineries in Design Phase 3.5 3.0 2.5 Daily Oil Processing records 2.11 MMbpd (Jan) RNEST Phase 1 Nov/14 Comperj Phase 1 Apr/15 RNEST Phase 2 May/15 Premium I Phase 1 Comperj Oct/17 Phase 2 Jan/18 Premium II Dec/17 Premium I Phase 2 Oct/20 2.0 2.10 MMbpd (Aug) 2.12 MMbpd (Mar) 1.5 92% Utilization Factor 96% 93% 93% 93% 1.0 13
01-Jan-10 21-Jan-10 10-Feb-10 02-Mar-10 22-Mar-10 11-Apr-10 01-May-10 21-May-10 10-Jun-10 30-Jun-10 20-Jul-10 09-Aug-10 29-Aug-10 18-Sep-10 08-Oct-10 28-Oct-10 17-Nov-10 07-Dec-10 27-Dec-10 16-Jan-11 05-Feb-11 25-Feb-11 17-Mar-11 06-Apr-11 26-Apr-11 16-May-11 05-Jun-11 25-Jun-11 15-Jul-11 04-Aug-11 24-Aug-11 13-Sep-11 03-Oct-11 23-Oct-11 12-Nov-11 02-Dec-11 22-Dec-11 11-Jan-12 31-Jan-12 20-Feb-12 11-Mar-12 31-Mar-12 20-Apr-12 10-May-12 30-May-12 19-Jun-12 09-Jul-12 29-Jul-12 18-Aug-12 07-Sep-12 27-Sep-12 17-Oct-12 06-Nov-12 26-Nov-12 16-Dec-12 05-Jan-13 25-Jan-13 14-Feb-13 06-Mar-13 MWavg Thermo Power Generation in the National Grid System 10,000 MW: Petrobras Supplies Fuel for 16% of the System Needs Thermo power generation, Petrobras and Third Parties¹, above the 10,000 MW threshold in October/2012. We had successive power generation records in 2012 and 2013. 2010 Petrobras - Gas ¹ Where Petrobras has a stake or supplies fuel 2011 Third Parties - Gas 2012 12,000 12.000 10,000 10.000 10,149 MWavg (Nov/23) Petrobras - Oil 2013 10,485 MWavg (Feb/06) 8,000 8.000 6,000 6.000 4,000 4.000 2,000 2.000 00 Third Parties - Oil 14
2013-17 Business and Management Plan Fundamentals Financiability Assumptions Investment Grade rating maintenance No new equity issuance Convergence with International Prices (Oil Products) PERFORMANCE Management focused on reaching physical and financial targets of each project CAPITAL DISCIPLINE Guarantee the expansion of the business with solid financial indicators PRIORITY Priority for oil and natural gas exploration & production projects in Brazil Divestments in Brazil and, mainly, abroad 2013 2017 15
2013-2017 BMP Investments: Approved by Petrobras Board of Directors in 03/15/13 2013-2017 Period US$ 236.7 Billion Financiability Assumptions E&P 62.3% (US$ 147.5 bi) 28% 27.4% (US$ 64.8 bi) 4.2% (US$ 9.9 bi) 2.2% (US$ 5.1 bi) 1.1% (US$ 2.9 bi) Investment Grade Rating maintenance: Leverage lower than 35% Net Debt/EBITDA lower than 2.5x No new equity issuance Convergence with International Prices (Oil Products) Divestments in Brazil and, mainly, abroad 0.4% (US$ 1.0 bi) 1.0% (US$ 2.3 bi) 1.4% (US$ 3.2 bi) E&P Downstream G&E International Pbio* Distribuition ETM* Other Areas* * Pbio = Petrobras Biofuel ETM = Engineering, Technology and Materials Other Areas = Financial, Strategy and Corporate 16
2013-2017 BMP Investments: Implementation x Evaluation Total = Under Implementation All E&P projects in Brazil and projects of the remaining segments in phase IV + Under Evaluation Projects for the remaining segments, excluding E&P, currently in phase I, II and III. US$ 236.7 Billion 947 projects US$ 207.1 Billion US$ 29.6 Billion 770 projects 177 projects 62.3% (US$ 147.5 Billion) 27.4% (US$ 64.8 Billion) 71.2% (US$ 147.5 Billion) 20.9% (US$ 43.2 Billion) 1.0% 6.1% (US$ 0.3 Billion) (US$ 1.8 Billion) 6.4% (US$ 1.9 Billion) 2.9% (US$ 5.9 Billion) 13.5% (US$ 4.0 Billion) 4.2% (US$ 9.9 Billion) 2.2% (US$ 5.1 Billion) 1.1% (US$ 2.9 Billion) 0.4% (US$ 1.0 Billion) 1.0% 1.4% (US$ 3.2 Billion) (US$ 2.3 Billion) 1.5% (US$ 3.2 Billion) 0.5% (US$ 1.1 Billion) 1.4% (US$ 2.9 Billion) 1.1% 0.5% (US$ 2.3 Billion) (US$ 1.0 Bililon) 73.0% (US$ 21.6 Billion) E&P Downstream G&E International Pbio* Distribuition ETM* Other Areas* * Pbio = Petrobras Biofuel ETM = Engineering, Technology and Materials Other Areas = Financial, Strategy and Corporate Phase I: Opportunity Identification; Phase II: Conceptual Project; Phase III: Basic Project ; Phase IV: Execution 17
2013-2017 Business and Management Plan : Project Portfolio Management INVESTMENTS UNDER IMPLEMENTATION US$ 147.5 Billion E&P US$ 43.2 Billion Downstream US$ 5.9 Billion Gas & Energy US$ 3.2 Billion International US$ 2.9 Billion Distribution US$ 1.1 Billion Biofuels US$ 207.1 bi* Implementation of Projects under Evaluations contingent on: Results of Technical- Economical Feasibility studies; US$ 29.6 bi* Availability of Resources (financiability); - E&P US$ 21.6 Billion Downstream US$ 4.0 Billion Gas & Energy US$ 1.9 Billion International US$ 0.3 Billion Distribution US$ 1.8 Billion Biofuels Competition for available resources. INVESTMENTS UNDER EVALUATION * US$ 207.1 Billion include ETM (US$ 2,3 bi) and Other Areas (US$ 1,0 bi) investments 18
Programs to Support the 2013-2017 BMP 2013-2017 BMP US$ 236.7 Billion PROEF Program to Increase Operational Efficiency UO-BC UO-RIO PROCOP Operating Costs Optimization Program PRC-Poço Program to Reduce Well Costs INFRALOG Logistic Infrastructure Optimization Program PRODESIN Divestment Program Petrobras Local Content Management Take advantage of the industry s capacity to maximize gains to Petrobras PROCOP: Focus on OPEX, operating costs of the Company activities Manageable Operating Costs. PRC-Poço: Focus on CAPEX dedicated to Wells construction Investments in Drilling and Completion. 19
INFRALOG: Optimization of the Investments through Integrated Management of Logistic Projects Decrease in investments were incorporated in the 2013-2017 BMP, totaling US$ 2.2 Billion. Additional opportunities to reduce up to US$ 2.8 Billion between 2018-2020 were also mapped. Offshore Support Basis E&P provides offshore support harbor and airport infrastructure, focusing on Espírito Santo, Campos and Santos Basins Transportation and Oil Exports DOWNSTREAM and TRANSPETRO transport E&P production to the refineries or export in traditional large vessels INFRALOG Natural Gas Liquids Destination DOWNSTREAM and G&E developing solutions to improve the transportation and utilization of natural gas liquids produced by E&P in the Pre-Salt Oil Products and Biofuels Supply and Distribuition DOWNSTREAM, TRANSPETRO and PETROBRAS DISTRIBUITION aiming to increase capacity for storage, pipeline transportation and in multiclient distribution bases Planning, monitoring and managing projects and actions to meet the infrastructure needs of Petrobras System at lower costs. 20
Manageable Costs R$ Billion PROCOP: Optimization of the Operational Activities Increasing Productivity and Reducing Unit Costs Benefits will come gradually and will lead to a total economy of R$ 32 Billion by 2016. Economy of R$ 32 Billion in 4 years Annual Reduction Targets 4 7 2013 2014 2015 2016 Annual Reduction provided by PROCOP Evolution of Manageable Costs * Expenditures for industrial, administrative and support installations 9 12 Initiatives Example Exploration & Production: Consumption of chemicals and fuels; Productive drilling rig days; Maritime and air transportation; Onshore well interventions; Downstream: Consumption of chemicals and catalyzers; Residual production; Scheduled Stoppages routine; excessive lay day at ports; Fleet use; Delivery Schedule; Transpetro: Intervention in vessels, terminals, oil and gas pipelines, and tanks; Gas & Energy: NG consumption to produce ammonia; Operating cost for the gas pipeline network; Engineering, Technology and Materials: Supply and inventories of materials; IT costs per user; Corporate e Services: Expenditures with buildings, trips and transportation; HSE management. 21
Exploration & Production 2013-2017 Period US$ 147.5 Billion 73% (106.9) 16% (24.3) 11% (16.3) Production Development Exploration Infrastructure and Support 22 22
E&P Investments 2013-2017 Period Exploration US$ 24.3 Billion Production Development US$ 106.9 Billion 6% (1.4) 25% (26.2) 24% (5.8) 70% (17.1) Post-Salt Pre-Salt Transfer of Rights 43% (46.4) 32% (34.3) Aside from Exploration and Production Development, E&P infrastructure investments total US$ 16.3 Billion. 23
Million bpd 2013-2017 BMP: Production Curve Maintained Baleia Azul (Cid. Anchieta) Sapinhoá Pilots (Cid. São Paulo) Baúna (Cid. Itajaí) Lula NE Piloto (Cid. Paraty) Papa-Terra (P-63) Roncador III (P-55) Norte Pq. Baleias (P-58) Papa-Terra (P-61) Production Curve in Brazil Oil and NGL Production Roncador IV (P-62) Sapinhoá Norte (Cid. Ilhabela) Iracema Sul (Cid. Mangaratiba) Iracema Norte (Cid. Itaguaí) Lula Alto Lula Central Lula Sul (P-66) Franco 1 (P-74) Carioca Lula Norte (P-67) Franco SW (P-75) Lula Ext. Sul (P-68) Lula Oeste (P-69) Franco Sul (P-76) Iara Horst (P-70) Tartaruga Verde e Mestiça Parque dos Doces Franco NW (P-77) NE de Tupi (P-72) Iara NW (P-71) Deep Waters Sergipe Maromba Sul Pq. Baleias Espadarte I Carcará Entorno de Iara (P-73) Júpiter Bonito Franco Leste Espadarte III Florim 2.0 2.0 2.0 ±2% 25 new production units will start-up between 2013-17 or 38 new production units will start-up between 2013-20 2012 2.0 Million bpd Pre-Salt (Concession) 7% 93% 2017 2.75 Million bpd Transfer of Rights 7% Pre-Salt (Concession) 35% Post-Salt 58% Post-Salt 2020 4.2 Million bpd New Discoveries (*) Transfer of Rights 19% Pre-Salt (Concession) 31% 6% 44% Post-Salt (*) Includes opportunities in blocks where discoveries have already been found 24
Million bpd 2013-2017 BMP: Production Curve Maintained Production Curve in Brazil Oil and NGL Production 2013 Sapinhoá Pilot (Cid. São Paulo) Baúna (Cid. Itajaí) Lula NE Pilot (Cid. Paraty) Papa-Terra (P-63) Roncador III (P-55) Norte Pq. Baleias (P-58) Papa-Terra Baleia Azul (P-61) (Cid. Anchieta) Roncador IV (P-62) Sapinhoá Norte (Cid. Ilhabela) Iracema Sul (Cid. Mangaratiba) Iracema Norte (Cid. Itaguaí) Lula Alto Lula Central Lula Sul (P-66) Franco 1 (P-74) Carioca Lula Norte (P-67) Franco SW (P-75) Lula Ext. Sul (P-68) Lula Oeste (P-71) Júpiter (P-69) Deep Waters Franco Sul Sergipe Bonito (P-76) Sul Pq. Baleias Franco Leste Tartaruga Verde Maromba e Mestiça Espadarte I Carcará Iara Horst (P-70) Parque dos Doces Franco NW (P-77) NE de Tupi (P-72) Iara NW Entorno de Iara (P-73) Espadarte III Florim 2.0 2.0 2.0 ±2% 25 new production units will start-up between 2013-17 or 38 new production units will start-up between 2013-20 Production units in operation 25
Sapinhoá Pilot Project: Operating since January 5 th, 2013 FPSO Cidade de São Paulo: 120 kbpd Sapinhoá Pilot Project: Drilling, completion and interconnection of 13 wells to a chartered FPSO from Schahin/Modec with capacity to process120 kbpd of oil and 5 million m 3 /d of natural gas. FPSO Cidade de São Paulo anchored in field Mar/13 26 TOTAL PHYSICAL COMPLETION - Forecast: 59.9% / Accomplished: 54.0% TOTAL LOCAL CONTENT Commitment with ANP: 30% / Planned: 57% 26
Baúna Project: Operating since February 16 th, 2013 FPSO Cidade de Itajaí: 80 kbpd Baúna Project: Drilling, completion and interconnection of 13 submarine well to chartered FPSO Cidade de Itajaí, with capacity to process 80 kbpd of oil and 2 million m3/d of gas. FPSO Cidade de Itajaí anchored in field - Jan/13 27 TOTAL PHYSICAL COMPLETION - Forecast: 69.8% / Accomplished: 53.5% TOTAL LOCAL CONTENT Commitment with ANP: 60% 27
Lula NE Pilot Project 1 st Oil on May 28 th, 2013 FPSO Cidade de Paraty: 120 kbpd Lula NE Pilot Project: Drilling, completion and interconnection of 14 wells to a FPSO chartered from QGOG/SBM with capacity to process 120 kbpd of oil and 5 million m3/d of gas. FPSO Cidade de Paraty Integration at BrasFELS Shipyard, Angra dos Reis/RJ, Mar/13. 28 UNIT's PHYSICAL COMPLETION - Forecast: 99.0% / Accomplished: 97.8% UNIT's LOCAL CONTENT Planned: 65% TOTAL LOCAL CONTENT Commitment with ANP: 30% / Planned: 60% 28
Papa-Terra Project: 1 st Oil of P-63 on July 15 th, 2013 FPSO P-63: 140 kbpd Papa-Terra Project: Drilling, completion and interconnection of 30 wells to P-61 TLWP (Tension Leg Wellhead Plataform) and P-63 (FPSO) with capacity to produce 140 kbpd and 1 MM m 2 /day of gas. P-63 Integration at Honório Bicalho Shipyard, in Rio Grande (RS) Feb/2013 29 UNIT s PHYSICAL COMPLETION - Forecast: 98.5% / Accomplished: 94.1% UNIT s LOCAL CONTENT Planned: 65% TOTAL LOCAL CONTENT Commitment with ANP: 0% / Planned: 46% 29
Roncador Project Module III - 1 st Oil on September 30 th, 2013 SS P-55: 180 kbpd Roncador Project Module III: Drilling, completion and interconnection of 17 wells to SS P-55 with capacity to process 180 kbpd of oil and 6 million m3/d of gas. SS P-55 Integration at ERG1 Shipyard in Rio Grande/RS Feb/2013 30 UNIT s PHYSICAL COMPLETION - Forecast: 87.5% / Accomplished: 89.2% UNIT s LOCAL CONTENT Planned: 65% TOTAL LOCAL CONTENT Commitment with ANP: 0% / Planned : 50% 30
Parque das Baleias Project: 1 st Oil on November 30 th, 2013 FPSO P-58: 180 kbpd Parque das Baleias Project: Drilling, completion and interconnection of 24 wells to FPSO P-58, with a processing capacity of 180 kbpd of oil and 6 MM m³/d of gas. FPSO P-58 Integration at Honório Bicalho Shipyard, in Rio Grande/RS Mar/2013 UNIT s PHYSICAL COMPLETION Forecast: 86.0% / Accomplished: 90.6% UNIT s LOCAL CONTENT Planned: 62% TOTAL LOCAL CONTENT Commitment with ANP: 0% / Planned : 58% 31 31
Papa-Terra Project: 1 st Oil of P-61 on December 31 st, 2013 TLWP P-61 Papa-Terra Project: Drilling, completion and interconnection of 30 wells to P-61 TLWP (Tension Leg Wellhead Plataform) and to P-63 (FPSO) with capacity to process 140 kbpd and 1 MM m³/day of gas. Topside and hull of P-61 at BrasFELS Shipyard (RJ) Jan/2013 32 UNIT s PHYSICAL COMPLETION Forecast: 94.9% / Accomplished: 76.2% UNIT s LOCAL CONTENT Planned: 65% TOTAL LOCAL CONTENT Commitment with ANP: 0% / Planned : 46% 32
Million bpd 2013-2017 BMP: Production Curve Maintained Production Curve in Brazil Oil and NGL Production Sapinhoá Pilot (Cid. São Paulo) Baúna (Cid. Itajaí) Lula NE Pilot (Cid. Paraty) Papa-Terra (P-63) Roncador III (P-55) Norte Pq. Baleias (P-58) Papa-Terra Baleia Azul (P-61) (Cid. Anchieta) 2014 Roncador IV (P-62) Sapinhoá Norte (Cid. Ilhabela) Iracema Sul (Cid. Mangaratiba) Iracema Norte (Cid. Itaguaí) Lula Alto Lula Central Lula Sul (P-66) Franco 1 (P-74) Carioca Lula Norte (P-67) Franco SW (P-75) Lula Ext. Sul (P-68) Lula Oeste (P-71) Júpiter (P-69) Deep Waters Franco Sul Sergipe Bonito (P-76) Sul Pq. Baleias Franco Leste Tartaruga Verde Maromba e Mestiça Espadarte I Carcará Iara Horst (P-70) Parque dos Doces Franco NW (P-77) NE de Tupi (P-72) Iara NW Entorno de Iara (P-73) Espadarte III Florim 2.0 2.0 2.0 ±2% Production units in operation 33
Roncador Project Module IV 1 st Oil on March/2014 FPSO P-62: 180 kbpd Roncador Project Module IV: Drilling, completion and interconnection of 17 wells to FPSO P-62 with a processing capacity of 180 kbpd of oil and 6 MM m³/d of gas. P-62 Integration at Atlântico Sul Shipyard, Ipojuca (PE) Jan/2013 UNIT s PHYSICAL COMPLETION Forecast: 70.5% / Accomplished: 88.4% UNIT s LOCAL CONTENT Planned: 64% TOTAL LOCAL CONTENT Commitment with ANP: 0% / Planned : 56% 34 34
Sapinhoá Norte Project: 1st Oil on September/2014 FPSO Cidade de Ilhabela: 150 kbpd Sapinhoá Norte Project: Drilling, completion and interconnection of 15 wells to a production unit chartered from QGOG/SBM with processing capacity of 150 kbpd of oil and compression of 6 MM m³/day of gas. FPSO Cidade de Ilhabela s Hull Conversion at CSSC Shipyard, in China - Feb/2013 UNIT s PHYSICAL COMPLETION Forecast: 41% / Accomplished: 62% UNIT s LOCAL CONTENT Planned: 65% TOTAL LOCAL CONTENT Commitment with ANP: 30% / Planned : 56.3% 35 35
Lula Project - Iracema Sul: 1 st Oil on November/2014 FPSO Cidade de Mangaratiba: 150 kbpd Lula Project Iracema Sul Area: Drilling, Completion and interconnection of 15 wells to a FPSO charted from Schahin/Modec with processing capacity of 150 kbpd and compression of 8MM m³/day of gas. FPSO Mangaratiba s Hull Conversion at Cosco Shipyard, in China Mar/13 36 UNIT s PHYSICAL COMPLETION Forecast: 58.3% / Accomplished: 47.7% UNIT s LOCAL CONTENT Planned: 65% TOTAL LOCAL CONTENT Commitment with ANP: 30% / Planned : 68% 36
Million bpd 2013-2017 BMP: 24 Contracted Units and 15 to Be Contracted between 2013-17 Production Curve in Brazil Oil and LGN Production Sapinhoá Pilot (Cid. São Paulo) Baúna (Cid. Itajaí) Lula NE Pilot (Cid. Paraty) Papa-Terra (P-63) Roncador III (P-55) Norte Pq. Baleias (P-58) Papa-Terra Baleia Azul (P-61) (Cid. Anchieta) Roncador IV (P-62) Sapinhoá Norte (Cid. Ilhabela) Iracema Sul (Cid. Mangaratiba) Iracema Norte (Cid. Itaguaí) (P-71) (**) Lula Alto (*) Deep Waters Júpiter (P-69) (**) Lula Central (*) Sergipe Franco Sul Bonito Sul Pq. Baleias (P-76) (***) Lula Sul Maromba Franco Leste (P-66) (**) Tartaruga Espadarte I Verde e Mestiça Franco 1 Carcará (P-74) (***) Carioca Lula Norte (P-67) (**) Franco SW (P-75) (***) Lula Ext. Sul (P-68) (**) Lula Oeste Iara Horst (P-70) (**) Parque dos Doces Franco NW (P-77) (***) NE de Tupi (P-72) (**) Iara NW Entorno de Iara (P-73) (**) Espadarte III Florim 2.0 2.0 2.0 ±2% 24 Production Units contracted, 3 already in operation (**) Hull being built in Rio Grande Shipyard (RS) (***) Hull being converted in Inhaúma Shipyard (RJ) 15 new Production Units to be contracted between 2013-17 Production units in operation (*) Units in final contraction phase 37
Exploration Investments in Brazil Target: Keep R/P > 12 Minimizing Dry-Well Risks Sergipe-Alagoas, Espírito Santo, New Frontiers Consolidation and delimitation of Pre-Salt and Transfer of Rights areas, besides Post-Salt Sergipe-Alagoas and Espirito Santo basins. Selective investments in New Frontiers: Equatorial and East Margin. US$ 24.3 Billion Post-Salt 70% (17.1) 24% (5.8) Pre-Salt 6% (1.4) Transfer of Rights Consolidation and Delimitation Equatorial Margin East Margin Finding Cost (US$ / boe) 0.58 0.64 0.76 1.15 1.56 1.96 Concession Areas March, 2012 Petrobras Other Companies 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Petrobras Costs Lower than Majors' Majors (2007-2011): US$ 3.2 to 4.5 / boe 38
Operational Efficiency (%) PROEF: Program Now Includes UO-RIO Accomplished PROEF Targets HC/PAD Fields Assets UO-BC Assets UO-RIO 39
PRC-Poço: Program to Reduce Well Costs Well Construction is a Relevant Portion in Investments 236.7 Other Areas 89.2 E&P 147.5 147.5 16.3 24.3 106.9 Infra-structure and Support Exploration Production Development Exploratory and Production Development Well Investments total US$ 75 billion 2013-2017 BMP Investments Brazil E&P Investments Increase of drilling rigs fleet and logistic resources Petrobras currently has 69 floating drilling rigs for well construction and maintenance in Brazil Well construction represents: 32% of Petrobras investments in 2013-2017 BMP 51% of Brazil E&P Investments 40
PRC-Poço: Program to Reduce Well Costs Structure, Initiatives and Expected Gains The PRC-Poço corporate governance involves all E&P executive managers and big portion of technical and management structure of E&P, with quarterly reports to the executive board. Program to Reduce Well Costs comprises 23 initiatives Unit Cost Number of Activities Term of Each Activity PRC-Poço Structure GROUP 1 Reduce Unit Costs GROUP 2 Optimize Projects Scope GROUP 3 Seek Productivity Gains 4 Prioritized Initiatives 7 Prioritized Initiatives 12 Prioritized Initiatives 2013-2017 BMP has already incorporated gains of US$ 1.4 Bn from initiatives aiming to decrease well construction time and optimization of operational sequencing. Initiatives in final structuring phase have already identified significant additional gains. These gains will be quantified by May/2013, when each initiative will be linked to an investment project. 41
Downstream Projects Under Implementation + Evaluation US$ 64.8 Billion 15% (9.7) 51% (33.3) 6% (4.0) 5% (3.3) 13% (8.4) 8% (5.4) 1% 1% (0.3) (0.4) Refining Capacity Expansion Operational Improvement Quality and Conversion Logistics for Oil Fleet Expansion Petrochemical Ethanol Logistics Corporate 42 42
Downstream Investments Projects Under Implementation US$ 43.2 billion 45% (19.4) 1% (0.3) 6% (2.4) 1% (0.4) 21% (9.2) 6% (2,8) 11% (4.9) Projects Under Evaluation US$ 21.6 billion 64% (13.8) 9% (3.7) 6% (2.8) 7% (1.5) 16% (3.5) 8% (1.7) 2% (0.5) 3% (0.5) 2013-2017 HIGHLIGHTS Refining capacity expansion on the Under Implementation Portfolio: RNEST (Pernambuco) and COMPERJ 1st Phase (Rio de Janeiro) Refining capacity expansion in design phase: Premium I (Maranhão), Premium II (Ceará) and COMPERJ 2nd Phase (Rio de Janeiro) Diesel and Gasoline Quality Portfolio: REPLAN, RPBC, REGAP, REFAP and RLAM Fleet expansion: PROMEF 45 Oil and Oil Products transportation vessels Refining Capacity Expansion Operational Improvement Quality and Conversion Logistics for Oil Fleet Expansion Petrochemical Ethanol Logistics Corporate 43
Northeast Refinery (RNEST): Start-up on November/14 Processing capacity: 230 kbpd 1 9 5 1 8 2 8 4 4 6 8 3 8 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 44 TOTAL PHYSICAL PROGRESS- Forecast: 70.3% / Accomplished: 70.6% RNEST construction Feb/13 LOCAL CONTENT- Target: 75% / Planned: 86.5% (1) Oil and oil products storage area; (2) Atmospheric distillation unit; (3) Power House; (4) Coking Unit; (5) Intermediary products tanks; (6) Contractors yard; (7) Acid water treatment unit; (8) Pipelines; (9) Hydrotreatment units 44
Relevance of refining capacity expansion for the oil product market supply and demand balance Brazil s oil product market in 2020 Demand for oil products in Brazil grows 4.2% p.a. between 2012 and 2020. Without Premium I, Premium II and Comperj 2nd phase, Brazil will import 29% of its oil product demand New Refineries Under Implemantation (kbpd) New Refineries in Design Phase RNEST: under construction 1st phase - 115 kbpd - Nov/14 2nd phase - 115 kbpd - May/15 2408 3380 Premium I 1st Phase 300 kbpd - Oct/17 Premium II - Trem 1 300 kbpd - Dec/17 Comperj 1st phase: under construction 165 kbpd - Apr/15 Processing capacity Demand - 972 Deficit Comperj 2nd Phase 300 kbpd - Jan/18 Premium I - 2nd Phase 300 kbpd - Oct/20 45
Gas & Energy Projects Under Implementation + Under Evaluation US$ 9.9 billlion 20% (2.0) 8% (0.8) 25% (2.5) 46% (4.6) Electric Energy Network LNG Gas-chemical plants 46 46
Gas & Energy Investments Projects Under Implementation US$ 5.9 billion 19% (1.1) 32% (1.9) 43% (2.6) 6% (0.3) Projects Under Evaluation US$ 4.0 billion 2013-2017 HIGHLIGHTS Conversion of Natural Gas into fertilizers and other gas chemical products: UFN III at Três Lagoas (Mato Grosso do Sul) Natural gas processing and transportation: NGPU Cabiúnas (Rio de Janeiro) 3% (0.1) 12% (0.5) Electric energy generation: Thermal Power Plant Baixada Fluminense (Rio de Janeiro) 34% (1.4) 51% (2.0) LNG Regasification: Bahia Terminal (Bahia) Units in Design Phase: UFN IV (Espírito Santo) and UFN V (Minas Gerais) Electric Energy Network LNG Gas-chemical plants 47
Natural Gas Supply And Demand (Million m³/d) 48
Financiability 49 49
Financial Planning Assumptions Financing analysis only incorporates projects under implementation No equity issuance Investment grade maintenance Main assumptions for cash flow generation and investment levels 2013-17 BMP is based on constant currencies from 2013. Brent prices (US$/bbl) Average exchange rate (R$/US$) US$ 107 in 2013, declining to US$ 100 in the long term R$ 2.00 in 2013, strengthening to R$ 1.85 in the long term Leverage Limit: < 35% Maximum leverage in 2013 and 2014 (34%), declining after 2015 Net debt / EBITDA Limit : < 2.5x Limit will be surpassed in 2013 and will fall below 2.0x after 2015 Oil product prices in Brazil Divestments Returns on new E&P projects Convergence to international prices US$ 9.9 billion Pre-salt projects breakeven between US$ 40-45/barrel Big post-salt projects have returns similar to pre-salt s 50
US$ Billion Operating Cash Flow and Funding Needs 246.9 9.9 10.7 61.3 246.9 39.8 Additional financing needs will be funded exclusively through new debt. No equity issuance is envisaged. Free cash flow, before dividends, after 2015. 165.0 207.1 Annual borrowing needs (2013-2017) Gross US$ 12.3 billion Net US$ 4.3 billion Net borrowing needs 50% below previous Plan due to: Fontes Usos Divestments and restructurings Cash utilization Third-party resources (Debt) Operating cash flow (after dividends) Investments Amortization 2017 production, versus 2012, leading to higher operating cash flows Declining downstream investments Long-term Brent prices (US$ 100 vs US$ 90 in the previous Plan) and long-term F/X rate (R$ 1.85 vs R$ 1.73) 51
Leverage Leverage Net Debt/EBITDA BMP Target (< 35%) BMP Target (< 2,5x) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Declining leverage, within the Company s self-imposed limits Net Debt/EBITDA surpasses limit at some points in time, during the Plan period 52