Medium-Term Global Oil Outlook

Transcription

1 Medium-Term Global Oil Outlook Fifth IEA OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks Session Two: Industry Views Remarks by Marianne Kah Chief Economist

2 Cautionary Statement The following presentation includes forward-looking statements. These statements relate to future events, such as anticipated revenues, earnings, business strategies, competitive position or other aspects of our operations or operating results or the industries or markets in which we operate or participate in general. Actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that may prove to be incorrect and are difficult to predict such as oil and gas prices; operational hazards and drilling risks; potential failure to achieve, and potential delays in achieving expected reserves or production levels from existing and future oil and gas development projects; unsuccessful exploratory activities; unexpected cost increases or technical difficulties in constructing, maintaining or modifying company facilities; international monetary conditions and exchange controls; potential liability for remedial actions under existing or future environmental regulations or from pending or future litigation; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; general domestic and international economic and political conditions, as well as changes in tax, environmental and other laws applicable to ConocoPhillips business and other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting ConocoPhillips business generally as set forth in ConocoPhillips filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). We caution you not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements, which are only as of the date of this presentation or as otherwise indicated, and we expressly disclaim any responsibility for updating such information. Use of non-gaap financial information This presentation may include non-gaap financial measures, which help facilitate comparison of company operating performance across periods and with peer companies. Any non-gaap measures included herein will be accompanied by a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure in an appendix. Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and possible reserves. We use the term "resource" in this presentation that the SEC s guidelines prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the oil and gas disclosures in our Form 10-K and other reports and filings with the SEC. Copies are available from the SEC and from the ConocoPhillips website. 2

3 Key Uncertainties in Medium-Term Oil Outlook Global economic recovery Global oil demand response to low oil prices Global oil supply response to low oil prices Industry cost deflation Government policies impacting supply or demand Technology change impacting oil supply or demand 3

4 Outlook for Global Economic Growth is a Key Uncertainty $/Barrel $150 Brent Crude Price Economic Downturn 5.0% IMF s Global GDP Growth $ % 2012 $100 $75 4.0% $50 3.5% $25 3.0% $0 2.5% April 2011 Sep Other April U.S. Oct 2012 April 2013 Oct 2013 April 2014 Oct Date of Forecast Weak global economic growth in the face of rising oil supplies was a key driver of the recent price decline. Downward revision of economic growth has been a constant theme. 4 Source: U.S. DOE spot price for Brent & imported refiners acquisition cost prior to 1987; IMF for global economic growth forecasts

5 Limited Responsiveness of Global Oil Demand to Lower Oil Prices Oil Intensity and Demand of Key Consumers Oil demand relatively insensitive to price Demand Barrels consumed per thousand U.S. 2010$ GDP Demand in 2014, MMBD Developing 20 Reduced oil intensity of global economy 1.0 Industrialized 15 Lower consumer oil price decline outside the U.S. Strong U.S. dollar (in which oil priced) Developing nations removing subsidies and raising oil taxes Sources: ConocoPhillips; Energy Intelligence Group; Oxford Economics 5 Limited global oil demand response to lower oil prices

6 % change in capex (2015 vs 2014) U.S. Supply Response to Low Oil Prices U.S. Upstream Capital Cost Reductions U.S. Lower 48 Oil-Directed Rig Count 0% -10% Large E&Ps Mid-sized E&Ps Small E&Ps 1,700 1,500 1,300-46% -20% 1,100-30% Horizontal -41% -40% -50% 37% average reduction Vertical & Directional -58% % U.S. has significant supply response to lower oil prices Source: IHS Herold, Global Upstream Performance Review, 2 nd March 2015; Baker Hughes rig count, March 13,

7 Eagle Ford Efficiency Improvement Oil Initial Production Rate (Barrels per Day) Drilling Days (Spud to Rig Release) 1,400 1,200 1, Source: IHS Inc. Use of this content authorized in advance by IHS; further use or redistribution strictly prohibited without written permission from IHS. All rights reserved. Enerdeq Database 1/15/15. Play level month averages. IP rate Initial 24 hour production rate for wellhead crude. 7 Productivity improvements have improved economics

8 Cost Pressures on Industry Finding & Development Costs Mirror Oil Price Breakdown of Realized Price Nominal Dollars per Barrel Brent Price Nominal Dollars per Barrel Cash from operations (before debt and dividends) Average realized price F&D Cost Industry costs and taxes lag the decline in oil prices Source: Rystad Energy UCube, Oil Fields Only. F&D costs Include cash costs of exploration and production capex, opex, transportation and abandonment costs and not taxes or royalties. 8

9 Real 2014 Dollars per Barrel Brent Crude Price: External Expert Views Market expectations of recovery from very weak prices in 2015 $110 $100 $90 Brent Crude Price Views Wide range based on differing views on: Global economic recovery Oil supply and demand response to low oil prices $80 $70 $60 Expert Range Futures (03/16/15) Industry cost deflation Technology change impacting oil supply or demand $50 $ Wide range of external views Sources: January March 2015 forecasts from consultants, EIA and investment banks. Futures prices from 3/16/15

10 Observations High cost of oil and gas supply wasn t sustainable Oil market recovery driven mostly by supply response U.S. supply is flexible both on the downside as well as upside Potential for insufficient supply to satisfy demand at current futures price outlook by