Swiss scenarios and the Swiss- Energyscope Platform (www.energyscope.ch) Swiss energy transition: Understand to choose

Avec le support de: Swiss scenarios and the Swiss- Energyscope Platform (www.energyscope.ch) Swiss energy transition: Understand to choose Prof D. Favrat, EPFL Energy Center

Why a new information platform and calculator? Starting points: weak knowledge about energy in the population (non experts) need to rationalize teaching in the different academic sections ( experts ) Hence the need for a calculator that can be adapted to both inspired by Mackay in UK (DECC) but adapted: - to Swiss situation - to be sequential (avoid the black box negative effect) - to account for the seasonal asymmetry

www.energyscope.ch

The books Shorter versions from this month

Ongoing: Extension to canton and city Vaud Lausanne EU application being evaluated Paper in Energy (in Press,2015)

Electricity, Gas, Diesel and Wood? (lesson 1) Electricity 1 kwh Natural Gas 1 m 3 11.2 kwh Wood Diesel 1 litre 10 kwh 1 m3 (oak) 2100 kwh or 1 kg 5.6 kwh

Scales and monthly representation (lesson 2) kwh/einwohner 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Légende 2011 Abwärme Chaleur perdue Verkehr Transport Prozesswärme (th.) Warmwasser Chaleur de procédés (th.) Heizung Eau chaude (th.) Mobilität Chauffage (el.) de bâtiments Industrie (el.) Elec. transport Warmwasser Elec. procédés (el.) Elec. eau chaude Wärmepumpe Elec pompe à (el.) chaleur Elec chauffage à rés. Elektroheizung (el.) Elec. Autres Andere (el.) 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D

Yearly, seasonal, monthly + 6 indicators

Present situation Annual demand of final energy* in 2011 [GWh] 350 000 300 000 285 519 23.4% Légendes: Waste heat 250 000 27.5% 5.9% Transport (non electric) Process heat (non el.) 200 000 3.4% 19.0% Hot water(non electric) Space heating (non el.) 150 000 1.0% Electricity: transport 100 000 5.8% 0.8% Electricity: procédés Electricity: hot water 50 000 0.4% 1.1% Electricity: heat pump Electricity: Joule heating 0 11.7% Electricity: others

BFE scenarios : "NPE" 2035 Annual demand of final energy* in 2011 and in 2035 [GWh] 350 000 300 000 285 519 23.4% 10.0% Légendes: Waste heat 250 000 27.5% 5.9% 22.9% 9.1% Transport (non electric) Process heat (non el.) 200 000 181 275 3.4% 19.0% 5.5% 18.8% Hot water(non electric) Space heating (non el.) 150 000 1.0% 4.6% Electricité: Electricity: transport 100 000 5.8% 0.8% 7.3% 0.3% Electricité: Electricity: procédés Electricity: hot water 50 000 0.4% 1.1% 1.9% 1.4% Electricity: heat pump Electricity: Joule heating 0 11.7% 18.2% Electricité: Electricity: autres others 2011 2035 2011 2035

Scenarios of the Confederation: "NEP" 2035 (L6) Final energy*demands in 2011 and in 2035 [GWh] 350 000 300 000 285 519 23.4% 10.0% Légendes: Waste heat 250 000 27.5% 5.9% 22.9% 9.1% Transport (non electric) Process heat (non el.) 200 000 180 698 181 275 3.4% 19.0% 5.5% 18.8% Hot water(non electric) Space heating (non el.) 150 000 1.0% 4.6% Electricité: Electricity: transport 100 000 5.8% 0.8% 7.3% 0.3% Electricité: Electricity: procédés Electricity: hot water 50 000 0.4% 1.1% 1.9% 1.4% Electricity: heat pump Electricity: Joule heating 0 11.7% 18.2% Electricité: Electricity: autres others 2011 2035 2011 2035

SFOE Scenarios : "NPE" 2035 Final energy* demands in 2011 and in 2035 [GWh] 350 000 300 000 285 519 23.4% 10.0% Legend: Waste heat 250 000 27.5% 5.9% 22.9% 9.1% Transport (non electric) Process heat (non el.) 200 000 180 698 181 275 3.4% 19.0% 5.5% 18.8% Hot water(non electric) Space heating (non el.) 150 000 1.0% 4.6% Electricité: Electricity: transport 100 000 5.8% 0.8% 7.3% 0.3% Electricité: Electricity: procédés Electricity: hot water 50 000 0.4% 1.1% 1.9% 1.4% Electricity: heat pump Electricity: Joule heating 0 11.7% 18.2% Electricité: Electricity: autres others 2011 2035 2011 2035

Scénarios de la Confédération: "NPE" 2035 Final energy demands* in 2011 and in 2035 [GWh] 350 000 300 000 250 000 200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000 0 285 519 181 275 2011 2035 Legend: Waste heat Transport (non electric) Process heat (non el.) Hot water(non electric) Space heating (non el.) Electricité: Electricity: transport Electricité: Electricity: procédés Electricity: hot water Electricity: heat pump Electricity: Joule heating Electricité: Electricity: autres others

SFOE Scenario : "NPE" 2035 et 2050 Final energy*demands in 2011, 2035 and 2050 [GWh] 350 000 300 000 285 519 23.4% 10.0% 4.3% Legend: Waste heat 250 000 27.5% 5.9% 22.9% 9.1% 20.8% 9.0% Transport (non electric) Process heat (non el.) 200 000 150 000 181 275 180 698 138 598 138 076 3.4% 19.0% 1.0% 5.5% 18.8% 4.6% 7.9% 15.0% 7.7% Hot water(non electric) Space heating (non el.) Electricity: transport 100 000 5.8% 0.8% 7.3% 0.3% 8.0% 0.1% Electricity: procédés Electricity: hot water 50 000 0.4% 1.1% 1.9% 1.4% 2.0% 0.6% Electricity: heat pump Electricity: Joule heating 0 11.7% 18.2% 24.6% Electricity: others 2011 2035 2050 2011 2035 2050

SFOE Strategy : six scenarios for the future Final energy* demands in 2011, 2035 and 2050 [GWh] 350 000 300 000 250 000 200 000 150 000 285 519 high 221 858 medium low 197 631 181 275 high 201 022 medium low 164 577 138 598 Légendes: Waste heat Transport (non electric) Process heat (non el.) Hot water(non electric) Space heating (non el.) Electricity: transport 100 000 Electricity: procédés Electricity: hot water 50 000 Electricity: heat pump Electricity: Joule heating 0 Electricity: others 2011 2035 2050

Comparison of costs (lesson 9) Milliards Frs 30 25 20 15 2011 2050 Low 2050 2050 High Medium Nuclear Fossil electricity Hydro Wind Solar PV Geothermal Electric grid Seasonable storage 10 5 Electricity import Cogeneration Boilers Other heating Transportation fuels Energy efficiency 0

The broad spectrum of future costs for nuclear Initial agreement reached on new nuclear power station at Hinkley (EDF Energy-UK) The key terms include a Strike Price of 89.50 /MWh fully indexed to the Consumer Price Index Kannan &Turton Cost of ad-hoc nuclear policy. Energy Policy 2012.

Comparison with Prognos scenario 2050 low

Electricity and transport

Role of renewable (Prognos 2050)

La Suisse «électrique» n est pas une île

Prix à la bourse européenne d électricité Prix [ /MWh] 100,00 90,00 80,00 70,00 60,00 50,00 40,00 25.06.2008 19.01.2009 15.08.2009 11.03.2010 05.10.2010 01.05.2011 25.11.2011 20.06.2012

Le prix du carbone en chute libre en Europe par tonne Prix du carbone dans l Union Européenne 2 1 0 1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2 8 0 6 4 2 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 https://newmatilda.com/2013/07/18/only-idiot-would-scrap-carbon-price from http://www.investing.com/commodities/carbon-emissions-historical-data

Comparison between 2011 and 2050 low

Conclusions European market completely unbalanced (only subsidies) Low prices of coal and hydro carbons, with depressed carbon market. In Switzerland swiss hydro and cogeneration producers are clearly disadvantaged Debates on nuclear safety and future prices hotter than ever Implies wrong signals to investors (for ex: hydro pump storage) and energy efficiency measures Generally positive comments regarding energyscope.ch including from abroad but too early to judge on impact. Early negative reactions from emotionally sensitive groups (global warming deniers, anti-wind mills, ultra-pro-nuclear)

Thanks for your attention Que de choses il faut ignorer pour agir! So many things we have to ignore, to act (Valery)