Outlook for Russia s downstream industry, infrastructure development and evolving export strategy Maxim Nesmelov Deputy Director of crude and oil products trading Department, Head of products trading E-mail: m_nesmelov@rosneft.ru Antwerp, January 2014
Context 1. Russian oil products market overview Refining throughput Key events 2. Downstream modernization plan Key goals Schedule Oil product balances 3. Rosneft refining position Projects of new construction Tuapse refinery portfolio 1
Introduction Russia s crude refining throughput increased over recent years at the moment refinery industry is covering domestic demand in full In the period up to 2020 we expect huge flow of investments and a number of new units are to be built along with modernization of existing capacities. Increase of technological effectiveness will allow reducing refinery throughput up to 235mn t/year by 2030, but in the same time ensuring stable growth of product output. Refining, mln. tn Alexander Novak Russia s Energy Minister 272 122 Heavy -6% 260 104 Light 254 86 Increase of conversion is the key focus of Russian refining industry upgrades not throughput increase 150 156 168 10% 2013 2017 2020 2
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Refining throughput increases, effectiveness still low 25,0 +6.4% 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 Motor gasoline Jet Diesel Fuel oil 0,0 39,0 38,5 38,0 37,5 37,0 36,5 36,0 35,5 Mogas Diesel Fuel oil 72,5 77,0 +5.7% 72,0 +2.0% +4.6% 38,7 72,0 76,0 76,5 71,5 38,2 71,0 75,0 70,5 70,6 74,0 70,0 74,2 69,5 69,6 73,0 36,6 73,1 69,0 72,0 68,5 68,0 71,0 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 o Refining margins are high, stimulating crude runs o Pace of modernization was low o Lack of sufficient investments o Government s taxation policy bears fruits, but not enough time 3
But significant steps done over last 3 years aim changes o Introduction of Technical regalement : motor fuels non-compliant to set norms are prohibited for sale on domestic market Euro-2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Gasoline prohibited until end of 2014 until end of 2015 starting from 2016 Diesel prohibited until end of 2014 until end of 2015 starting from 2016 o Signed 4-sided agreement: each oil company is obliged to produce certain amount of motor fuels meeting Technical Regalement specifications o Differentiation of excise taxes: domestic excise taxes are different depending on Euro quality, gap increases, pushing for quality improvement 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Excise tax rates ($/tn) from 1 Jan 2014 360 345 305 185 210 210 175 155 Gasoline Diesel Below Euro 3 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 4
Government has proclaimed 3 key goals for Russian refining industry upgrade campaign by 2020 1 Lights yield (conversion) Lights yield, % 55% 66% Minimal increase in crude units capacities balanced by a closure of simple refineries Key focus is on meeting demand for gasoline and jet fuel 2012 2020 Diesel fuel and gasoline production, Mt 126 2 Fuel Standards Euro 5 Euro <5 89 30% 70% 100% Increased motor fuel production and Euro-5 compliance will remain in focus in nearest years 0% 2012 2020 3 Replacement of old units Some experts estimate that 70% of Russian refining units have already exceed their expected lifetime Key replacement goals: High health, security and environment standards Operations continuity Maximization of refinery utilization Decrease in labor due to automation & technology Source: Minenergo, Skolkovo business school 5
Key focus of refining upgrades is to meet motor fuels and jet fuel demand Demand, mln. tn Supply, mln. tn Demand level Gasoline Growth in number of passenger cars Increase in fuel efficiency 33 +2% 40 40 35 +3% 45 45 Mostly balanced with some regional deficits Demand will be met through secondary processes upgrades 2012 2017 2020 2012 2017 2020 Diesel Growth in number of trucks Increase in fuel efficiency +4% 36 45 2012 2017 50 2020 54 2012 +5% 73 81 2017 2020 Always surplus export product in Russia Overall demand growth will be slightly above gasoline due to increasing share of diesel trucks Jet fuel Growth in passenger traffic Increase in fuel efficiency of new aircrafts 9 +5% 12 13 2012 2017 2020 10 2012 +6% 15 2017 16 2020 The highest growing product Sufficient supply growth, since most conversion upgrades are middle distillates oriented Fuel oil Growth in bunker fuel Power generation switching to natural gas -1% 16 14 2012 2017 14 2020 76 2012-8% 54 2017 40 2020 New significant cracking capacities Large export drop Source: Rosneft forecast, Petromarket 6
Key focus of refineries upgrade in mid-term is Euro-5 compliance Company Source: Petromarket Quality projects Gasoline: Isomerization, Reforming, Alkylation, Hydrotreating (15 projects) Diesel: Hydrotreating (6 projects) Gasoline: Isomerization, Reforming, Alkylation, Hydrotreating (4 projects) Diesel: Hydrotreating (3 projects) Gasoline: Isomerization, Reforming, Alkylation, Hydrotreating (5 projects) Diesel: Hydrotreating (3 project) Gasoline: Isomerization, Reforming (2 projects) Diesel: Hydrotreating (1 project) Gasoline: Alkylation, Hydrotreating (2 projects) Diesel: nothing Current quality 13% 38% 28% 21% lower than Euro-3 Euro-3 Euro-4 Euro-5 Year when all production is fully complied with Euro-5 1 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1 Some companies will continue to produce non Euro-5 compliant product for export. In this case, the tick shows a year of completion of latest quality project 32% 53% 21% 13% 13% 50% 50% 2% 18% 48% 15% 78% 7% 47% 21% 22% 4% 96% 83% 17% 85% 13% 79% 19% 2% 11% 7
Implementation of modernization projects will lead to significant growth of gasoil and gasoline supply (12 mln t gasoline and 20 mln t gasoil) Company 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Rosneft Tuapse: AVT +1,6 Kuibyshev: Isomerization +0,1; Novokuibishevsk: Isomerization +0,2; Achinsk: CU +0,1; Komsomolsk: HC VGO +0,7; Syzran: FCC and MTBE +0,5; Kuibyshev: FCC, alkylation, MTBE +0,9; Angarsk: FCC, alkylation, MTBE +0,2; +0,2; Ryazan: Isomerization -0,8; +0,4 Syzran: alkylation +0,1; Novokuibishevsk: HC VGO, рек. УЗК +0,1; +0,4; Achinsk: HC VGO +1,6 Tuapse: HC VGO, Isomerization, Reformer +2,5; +2,6; Ryazan: HT gasoline FCC +1,0 Ryazan: HC VGO, FCC: +0,3;+0,9 Lukoil Volgograd: AVT +0,3; +0,1 Volgograd: AVT +0,2; +0,2; Perm: coking +0,1; +1,2; Nizhny Novgorod: Isomerization, FCC, alkylation +1,1; +0,1 Volgograd: HC +1,8 Volgograd: FCC; alkylate and MTBE +0,6 Nizhny Novgorod: HC +0,5; +1,7 Ufa: FCC, AVT Bashneft +0,3; +0,6 Moscow: Gasprom Neft Isomerization, HT gasoline: +0,3 Slavneft Yaroslavl: TAME +0,2 Surgutneftegas Kirishi: HC VGO +0,6 Kirishi: Isomerization, Riforming +0,9 Taif-NK Veba combi cracking +0,3; +2,0 Tatneft Gasprom Nizhnekamsk: HC VGO +1,1 Salavat: AVT +0,3; +0,6 Salavat: Isomerization. +0,4 Salavat: FCC +0,3 +0,1; Surgut: Isomerization +0,5 Nizhnekamsk: Riforming, Isomerization +1,0 Alliance Oil Company Khabarovsk: HC VGO и HT diesel +1,4 Total +0,6; +5,3 +1,2; +0,9 +3,2; +2,9 +0,2; +3,8 +6,0; +2,6 +0,8; +3,7 8
Due to ongoing conversion capacity increase projects Russia will remain excessive in gasoline in next 10 years 60 Gasoline balance in Russian Federation, mln tonnes (scenario: only currently ongoing projects included in 4-side agreement) 50 Consumption 40 30 20 10 - Other companies Gazprom Surgutneftegaz Slavneft Gazpromneft Bashneft Lukoil TNK-BP Rosneft 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Even if gasoline consumption continues to increase at CAGR 1,9% per year and key players implement announced conversion capacity increase projects, Russia will remain excessive in gasoline up to 2022-2023. Possible seasonal deficit in 2013-15 is covered with purchases from Belorussia * Announced but low probability projects are not taken into account 9
Diesel will remain export oriented commodity Diesel balance in Russian Federation, mln tonnes (scenario: only currently ongoing projects included in 4-side agreement) 120 100 80 60 40 20 Other companies Gazprom Surgutneftegaz Slavneft Gazpromneft Bashneft Lukoil TNK-BP Rosneft Consumption - 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Diesel production grows faster than its consumption Diesel consumption growth is faster than gasoline - CAGR 3,5% versus 1,9% Despite this, implementation of new conversion capacities for more diesel output will keep exported volumes at 50% in next 10 years * Announced but low probability projects are not taken into account 10
Fuel oil production will decrease by 36% to 2022, but ¾ of production will still be exported 90 Fuel oil balance in Russian Federation, mln tonnes (scenario: only currently ongoing projects included in 4-side agreement) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Other companies Gazprom Surgutneftegaz Slavneft Gazpromneft Bashneft Lukoil TNK-BP Rosneft Consumption 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Ongoing projects for conversion capacity increase are mostly directed at VGO production decrease, but overall production will also go down substantially (by 36% compared to current production) Since domestic consumption of fuel oil is also going down (CAGR -1,9%), up to ¾ of total production will be exported * Announced but low probability projects are not taken into account 11
Jet fuel market will remain in surplus until 2022 18 Jet fuel balance in Russian Federation, mln tonnes (scenario: only currently ongoing projects included in 4-side agreement) 16 14 12 Consumption 10 8 6 4 Other companies Gazprom Surgutneftegaz Slavneft Gazpromneft Bashneft Lukoil 2 TNK-BP Rosneft 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Despite fast growth of jet fuel consumption (CAGR 4,9%), implementation of new conversion capacities for more diesel output also leads to increased jet fuel production. This will keep surplus of jet fuel in Russia in next 10 years * Announced but low probability projects are not taken into account 12
Rosneft in the years 2008-2013 successfully implemented more than 20 projects for new construction and revamping of units and facilities Refinery 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Achinsk Isomerization Sulfur production Gasoline blending Water supply system Angarsk Isomerization Reforming Gasoline blending Komsomolsk Delayed coking Reforming LPG gantry Kuibyshev Novokuibishevsk Hydrogen production Hydrogen production Visbreaker Isomerization Reforming Reforming «Wet catalysis» Visbreaking Revamping of furnaces to gas Reforming Syzran Isomerization Reforming Tuapse Crude unit TNK-BP Refineries Ryazan diesel HT Saratov diesel HT Saratov isomerization Saratov crude unit Total New: 2 New: 2 New: 2 Revamped: 3 New: 2 Revamped: 3 New: 4 Revamped: 2 New 2 Integration of TNK-BP 13
Rosneft refineries actual status and development Indexes/ Countries Russia Ukraine Belorussia Germany Italy Total Number of refineries 10* 1 1 4 1 17 Capacity, mln. t/y 81,5* 6,4 2,6 11,6 15,0 127,3 Yield of light products 51,4% 56,6% 72,9% 83,4% Modernization program of the Russian refineries Process Samara Tuapse Komsomolsk Angarsk Achinsk Ryazan Saratov Additional for the second processing, mln t/y Crude unit 12,0 Hydrocracking 12,0 Catalytic cracking 2,9 Coking/Flexicoking 1,0 Modernization Development Launch in 2012 Launch in 2013 Data do not include Rosneft s FEPCo project (first 12mn t/year stage scheduled for 2020) *Except for mini refineries, where the share of 50% in Yaroslavl and Tuapse aren t working at full capacity 14
Tuapse refinery from topping to a new leader in Russia Tuapse refinery production structure, mln.t Tuapse refinery in Rosneft portfolio Naphtha Gasoline Jet Diesel Fuel oil Other Filling stations South Russia Saratov 0,1 4,4 0,9 1,4 2,0 Current production 2012 11,9 0,4 2,2 0,8 4,3 3,7 0,5 2nd construction stage 2017 11,4 0,7 2,4 1,0 6,5 0,7 0,0 3rd construction stage 2018 Export to MED: Naphta, Jet, Diesel, Fuel oil, etc. LINIK Bunker Tuapse BATO TZK Grozny Key success factors for Tuapse refinery: Strategic location: Immediate proximity to large Southern Russian markets with growing demand Close to Tuapse oil products terminal which enables to flexibly distribute sales between export and internal trade channels Complete re-equipment of refinery, including: Increase throughput from 5 to 12 mln. t./year Achieve 90% lights yield Achieve Nelson index of 8 15
Conclusion Russia s refinery industry to develop in the coming years with goal to meet Euro-5 standards and to increase conversion. Peak of modernization is scheduled for 2016-2018 Government's taxation policy provokes for faster upgrades, refining margins to decrease in 2015, but still attract a lot of investments Projected increase of diesel and gasoline supply unlikely to change balances for motor fuels: - Gasoline to remain domestic-oriented product with insignificant surplus being exported during winter period - Diesel exports are forecasted to stay on the same level with euro-quality grades replacing high-sulfur flow - major hit on exports is projected for fuel oil and naphtha Rosneft to lead the industry: share both on domestic market and exports about 30pc 16