Predicting progress on your project

www.nonsuch.co info@nonsuch.co Predicting progress on your project - using Lego bricks to understand Earned Value September 4 PM Conference 2015 Presented by Youssef Mourra Director, Principal Consultant 021 423 620 youssef@nonsuch.co @youssefmourra Te Papa Museum, Wellington

A bit about me 25 years experience in project, programme and portfolio management in various countries. For the past 12 years, based in Wellington and servicing customers and clients in NZ and Australia and nearby. I have three children under 13 and when I have time, I enjoy music, reading, fruit trees, cricket, theatre, travel, wine, politics and etymology (the history and study of words). I m a regular presenter at the annual Project Management Conference in NZ and occasionally in Australia: Eddie Obeng Project Types The Zombies of Project Management The Zombies of Programme and Portfolio Management So You think you re ready to be a Consultant? 2

Today s session On a Friday afternoon You ve been out partying last night You ve just had lunch Your eyelids are heavy You will fall asleep This is going to be great session, don t you think? 3

Predicting progress on your project What are our options? 4

Horoscope? Imagine a Scorpio Project Manager! Or a Libran sponsor! 5

Crystal Ball? 6

Tarot Cards? 7

Superstition? 8

Mood? 9

What is Earned Value Management? Earned Value Management (EVM) is a management methodology for integrating scope, schedule and resources for objectively measuring project performance and progress and for forecasting project outcome It is an industry standard way to: measure a project s progress, forecast its completion date and final cost, and provide schedule and budget variances along the way. 10

Earned Value Management In English, please! Okay, think about going to a friend s bbq in a different city to your own Scope driving to a different city to catch up with friends and have a bbq Schedule the time you are due at your friend s place along with an estimated duration of the journey Resources your time, effort and costs involved in the journey However, at some point in the journey, you might find yourself or your partner asking these questions Are we on schedule? Are we running a bit late? What will we do? Are we running a bit too fast? What will we do? Will we get there on time? Will we be late? How late? With Earned Value Management, we can answer these questions confidently and more 11

Point in time So, Earned Value Management is about a point in time calculation. In other words, it s about what the future looks like based on performance to this point in time. It s not a fixed prediction but rather a prediction at this point of time that still allows, hopefully, for time to intervene and in some cases wilfully and positively change the final prediction. Today, I will be taking you through the Change Management lifecycle to ensure that I help effect some change in your approach and understanding of Earned Value Management. The first step is Awareness and so I hope I ve just made you aware of Earned Value and what it purports to do. 12

Change Management : ADKAR Change Management Unfreeze Move Refreeze Current State Transition State Future State 13 A D K A R Awareness of the need for change Desire to participate and support the change (WIIFM) Knowledge on how to change Ability to implement required skills and behaviours Reinforcement to sustain the change

Earned Value What s the problem we re trying to fix here? What s in it for you and your organisation? 14

What s the problem? 70% of projects are: Over budget Behind schedule 52% of all projects finish at 189% of their initial budget And some, after huge investments of time and money, are simply never completed! Source: The Standish Group 15

Have we done what we said we d do? % complete estimating % of Budget spent % of work done % of time elapsed subjective, incomplete draws false conclusions 16

What s More Important Knowing where you are on schedule? Knowing where you are on budget? Knowing where you are on work accomplished? It s difficult to judge one of the three over the other, so in fact all three are equally important. 17

EVM Integrates All Three elements It compares the PLANNED amount of work with what has actually been COMPLETED, to determine if COST, SCHEDULE, and WORK ACCOMPLISHED are progressing as planned. Work is Earned or credited as it is completed. By integrating three measurements, it provides consistent, numerical indicators with which you can evaluate and compare projects. 18

The challenging questions that EVM answers Are we delivering more or less work than planned? When is the project likely to be completed? Are we currently over or under budget? What is the remaining work likely to cost? What is the entire project likely to cost? How much will we be over or under budget at the end of the project? What is driving the significant cost and/or schedule variances? 19

Earned Value is Needed because. it provides an Early Warning Indicator (EWI) for prompt corrective action when there is still time to intervene timely change requests if required There is often a need to roll up progress of many tasks into an overall project status There is a need for a uniform unit of measure (dollars or work-hours). 20

What do I need to get started? You will need a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)/ Product Breakdown Structure (PBS) It needs to be deliverable or product oriented If it s not in the WBS/PBS, then it is out-of-scope Each descending level represents more detail Full (and accurate) definition is key Defined deliverables/products Timeframe for delivery of deliverables/products Total cost (direct and indirect) to deliver deliverables/products Let s look at an example 22

A sample schedule (with a WBS/PBS embedded) 23

Requirements of Earned Value Proper PBS/WBS Design Baseline Budget Baseline Schedule Work measurement by work-hours, dollars, units, etc. Good Project Scheduling Practices involving the following: A baselined schedule with costs (as mentioned above) The recording of actual progress on effort and costs The recording of estimates to completion for effort and costs 24

Earned Value Terminology Let s learn the terminology. We ll start with the first two: PV Planned Value (Formerly known as BCWS - Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled) Planned Value is the authorised, time-phased budget assigned to accomplish the scheduled work. At any given point on a time line, PV describes how much of the project work was planned to be performed BAC Budget at Completion The sum of all budgets established for the work to be performed. The project BAC is the sum of all the work package BACs Please note. At the start of a project, before any progress has been made and after budgets have been set and baselined, the PV and BAC are normally identical 25

What does it look like? Please note that the PV and BAC are identical at the start of the project before any work commences or any costs are incurred 26

It s getting too theoretical. It s Lego time!! 27

Grab your worksheet You will build a wall You have 4 minutes You have 100 bricks. 28 You will earn $10 per minute per person and $1 per brick laid

[what happened with the audience] I asked them to build a wall like the one displayed here except it was to be 10 bricks wide and 10 bricks high. I promised them 4 minutes and emphasised it wasn t a race and then I abruptly asked them to stop immediately after 2 minutes had passed and to record how many bricks they had laid in their incomplete wall. This number of bricks is significant. 29

Work these out PV Planned Value (Formerly known as BCWS - Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled) Planned Value is the authorised, time-phased budget assigned to accomplish the scheduled work. At any given point on a time line, PV describes how much of the project work was planned to be performed BAC Budget at Completion The sum of all budgets established for the work to be performed. The project BAC is the sum of all the work package BACs Assuming there are 2 builders working on this and based on the assumptions outlined in Slide 28, the answers and workings are: PV = 100 bricks @ $1 [$100] plus 2 people @ $10/minute for 4 minutes [$80] = $180 BAC = same as above = $180 30

The Answer sheet Calculation 2 person teams 3 person teams Planned Value PV $180 $220 Planned Value PV 2 $90 $110 Budget At Completion $180 $220 Cost per brick laid $1.80 $2.20 Note the use of PV with a little 2. This denotes the Planned Value at 2 minutes into the 4 minute estimated duration of the task. This is significant as we use the PV 2 value from here on as we are interested in measuring Earned Value at this point of time, namely 2 minutes into our 4 minute task. Please also note the cost per brick laid. This is significant later on. 31

Earned Value Terminology Okay, another two: AC Actual Cost (Formerly known as ACWP - Actual Cost of Work Performed) The realised cost incurred for the work performed on an activity during a specific time period. This can be reported for cumulative to date or for a specific reporting period. EV Earned Value (Formerly known as BCWP Budgeted Cost of Work Performed) The measure of the work performed, expressed in terms of the budget authorised for that work. Earned Value can be reported for cumulative to date or for a specific reporting period. Assuming there are 2 builders working on this and based on the assumptions outlined in Slide 28, and that only 60 bricks have been laid, the answers and workings are on the next slide 32

The Answer sheet Category 2 person teams 3 person teams Planned Value PV $180 $220 Planned Value PV 2 $90 $110 Budget At Completion - BAC $180 $220 No. of bricks built = B B B 60 Actual Cost AC (B *$1 ) + Cost of Effort to Date $100 Earned Value EV B * Cost of Bricks Laid $108 33

What does it look like? Please note that the EV and the AC are often different values unless we are strictly on target wit progress. 34

Some Derived Metrics SV: Schedule Variance (BCWP-BCWS) or (EV PV 2 ) A comparison of amount of work performed during a given period of time/earned value to what was scheduled to be performed/planned value. A negative variance means the project is behind schedule CV: Cost Variance (BCWP-ACWP) or (EV AC) A comparison of the budgeted cost of work performed /earned value with actual cost. A negative variance means the project is over budget. 35

The Answer sheet Category 2 person teams 3 person 2 person Planned Value PV $180 $220 $180 Planned Value PV 2 $90 $110 $90 Budget At Completion - BAC $180 $220 $180 No. of bricks built = B B B 60 Actual Cost AC (B *$1 ) + Cost of Effort to Date $100 Earned Value EV B * Cost of Bricks Laid $108 Schedule Variation SV EV - PV 2 $108 - $90 = $18 Cost Variation - CV EV - AC $108 - $100 = $8 36

Some More Derived Metrics SPI: Schedule Performance Index SPI=BCWP/BCWS or SPI = EV/PV 2 SPI <1 means project is behind schedule CPI: Cost Performance Index CPI= BCWP/ACWP or CPI = EV/AC CPI <1 means project is over budget CSI: Cost Schedule Index (CSI=CPI x SPI) The further CSI is from 1.0, the less likely project recovery becomes. 37

38 The Answer sheet Category 2 person teams 3 person 2 person Planned Value PV 2 $90 $110 $90 Actual Cost AC (B *$1 ) + Cost of Effort to Date $100 Earned Value EV B * Cost of Bricks Laid $108 Schedule Variation SV EV - PV $108 - $90 = $18 Cost Variation - CV EV - AC $108 - $100 = $8 Schedule Performance Index SPI EV/PV 2 $108/$90 = 1.2 Cost Performance Index CPI EV/AC $108/ $100 = 1.08 Cost Schedule Index - CSI CPI x CSI 1.2 * 1.08 = 1.296

Making Projections Once a project is 10% complete, the overrun at completion will not be less than the current overrun. Once a project is 20% complete, the CPI does not vary from its current value by more than 10%. The CPI and SPI are statistically accurate indicators of final cost results. Source: Defense Acquisition University 39

Today s Challenges Today s executives must achieve critical outcomes, respond rapidly to business changes, and make strategic project decisions earlier than ever in the project life cycle all with increased visibility into the decision-making process. Need for accurate and consistent status information Numerous complex (and interrelated) projects with many activities with many dependencies Project managers are asked to reduce project costs while improving forecasting and to compress schedules while increasing schedule accuracy. 40

CPI / SPI charting 41

Any shortcomings with Earned Value? Yes, sometimes quantifying/measuring work progress can be difficult. Think about the challenges that Agile project management might throw up. How might you tackle that? Is there value in Earned Value Management for projects using the Agile approach? The time required for data measurement, input, and manipulation can be considerable. You will need to be cognizant of effort curves and ensure you have that built into your baseline Front loaded, back loaded, turtle, double peak, etc. It mustn t be the SOLE arbitrator in making decisions about projets within a portfolio. This is just one perspective in decision making don t forget benefits, strategic alignment, risk etc. 42

So, Is This Stuff New? It s been around since the sixties. It was also known as Cost/Schedule Control Systems Criteria (C/SCSC) 44

Do I have to create this from scratch each time? So where do I get one? Buy a prepackaged application. (Lots of them around) Make your own in Microsoft Excel Use Microsoft Project, or Microsoft Project Server Most PMIS (Project Management Information System) applications systems will Earned Value built into their views, reports and tables 45

Earned Value Reports & Views 46

Earned Value - Tables 47

In summary Need to get beyond misleading measures of progress. Earned Value Management will help reduce guesswork in: measuring performance forecasting 48

One Final Caveat a positive one Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results How? If we are using Earned Value, we have time to intervene and help Shape the Future of our project s results 49

Best of luck! Thanks for your attendance For more information or if you have any questions, please contact me on Phone: 021 423 620 Website: www.nonsuch.co Email: youssef@nonsuch.co Twitter: @youssefmourra 51