Office of Geospatial Technology Management North Carolina Flood Mapping Program State of North Carolina Business Plan FY 2010 2014
Executive Summary This Business Plan, prepared by the Geospatial and Technology Management - North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program (GTM-NCFMP) at the request of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), sets forth the State s strategy for, the transition from the identification of a single hazard to a multi-hazard, risk-focused approach that integrates risk communication and mitigation in a management perspective over the next five years. Specifically, this plan shows how the GTM-NCFMP will: Build upon the success of the GTM-NCFMP (statewide Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map [DFIRM] production) and leverage existing watershed-based modeling data, statewide digital flood hazard data, and existing tools and procedures to provide valuable risk information supporting prevention, response, and mitigation activities by establishing the Integrated Hazard Risk Management (IHRM) program; Champion key legislative initiatives and goals to directly improve the State s ability to perform integrated hazard risk management in the future; Utilize the GTM-NCFMP IHRM program as a demonstration state for FEMA s Risk MAP (Mapping, Assessment, and Planning) initiative; Expedite priority initiatives to design and prototype IHRM program deliverables; and Transition from hardcopy and digital production and dissemination to digitalonly product. Vision The GTM-NCFMP is implementing a new vision for the program that will transition from traditional Map Modernization to an IHRM program and is developing objectives and business rules for this next phase of the program. The objectives for the IHRM program include: Multi-Hazard and Vulnerable Systems Identification - through an enhanced flood data model that extends beyond the existing DFIRM database to a more robust geodatabase containing additional supplemental statewide data on additional natural hazards and vulnerable systems (e.g., built environment, population, critical infrastructure, key resources, etc.). The GTM-NCFMP will continue to maintain the flood hazard data (through the map maintenance processes of restudies and Letters of Map Change) and address unmet needs, but will layer data for other natural hazards (e.g., wildfire, earthquakes, coastal erosion, etc.). IHRM will consist entirely of Geographic Information System (GIS) database-driven hazard and vulnerable system identification products, departing from the conceptual framework of paper maps. These data will support the GTM-NCFMP s ability to better identify the extent and probability of natural hazards that impact the State and determine Page i
the general building stock, infrastructure, and population that are vulnerable to these hazards. Quantifiable Risk Assessment - performed using a risk assessment methodology developed by the GTM-NCFMP for each hazard to determine estimated losses at a parcel and aggregated levels thereof. Both direct and indirect economic losses will be estimated and will be robust enough to proportion these losses to the different sectors that initially bear them: individuals, business, government, and insurance. The methodology will support the evaluation of mitigation alternatives and their effectiveness in reducing these estimated losses and leverage existing approaches currently utilized by FEMA such as Hazards United States Multi-Hazard software (HAZUS-MH). Enhanced Risk Communication - conveying relevant risk information to stakeholders and moving towards a completely digital program. This includes compelling, easy-to-use applications that greatly improve access to appropriate flood hazard data thereby reducing the need for paper flood maps. It will entail the development of communication tools that calculate and convey risk and the reduction in risk offered by appropriate mitigation actions. The levels of communication will be prototyped at the parcel and aggregated level and directed to the general public and local governments. Innovative visualization techniques will be employed so to facilitate the spatial and temporal variation in hazards, consequences, risk, and risk reduction. Integrated Mitigation Planning - that integrates and utilizes new natural hazard data, risk analysis, and tools for communicating risk to facilitate the preparation of local hazard mitigation plans and development of appropriate mitigation actions that reduce the risk both short-term and long-term. Additionally, opportunities will be identified to leverage data as well as results collected throughout both the hazard mitigation plan update and map maintenance processes. Additionally, the GTM-NCFMP, as part of its enhanced and integrated hazard identification approach, is seeking to become the first FEMA Cooperating Technical Partner (CTP) in the nation to go all-digital. The GTM-NCFMP s goal is for a full transition from all current paper-based procedures (graphical raster map products) to digital implementation beginning in Fiscal Year (FY) 2011. GIS and other digital formats will be used as the delivery mechanism for all mapping and engineering products used for managing floodplains and communicating flood and other hazard risks within North Carolina. An all-digital program will have the following characteristics: The digital data used to create the flood hazard maps are used for all official flood hazard determination and floodplain management purposes. Paper maps and other printed products are phased out and provided only in demand. Page ii
Floodplains are defined by their spatial coordinates. Users can use their own base maps. Flood hazard data are continuous throughout the State and the reliance on map panels is phased out. Letters of Map Change (LOMCs), including Letters of Map Revision (LOMRs) and Letters of Map Amendment (LOMAs), are integrated with other digital effective flood hazard information and are no longer separate products. Programmatic Initiatives North Carolina as a Demonstration State of FEMA s Risk MAP Initiative In 2008, FEMA funding was appropriated through the DHS Appropriation Act to the State of North Carolina so that the GTM-NCFMP can demonstrate how multihazard risk can be communicated and integrated with mitigation planning to reduce losses of life and property. FEMA and the State have committed more than $9 million to demonstrate an approach for multi-hazard identification, risk assessment and communication, and mitigation planning. FEMA is providing $6.425 million and the State is leveraging data valued at over $3.4 million. FEMA s funds are provided from a combination of previous fiscal year CTP funding to the State ($925,000 in total) and a $5.5 million FY 2008 Joint Explanatory Statement-Predisaster Mitigation grant. The data, applications, and protocols developed as part of this demonstration will be focused on supporting the State and local governments in determining who and what are at risk, developing actionable mitigation strategies, and improving the ability to measure the reduction in risk as actions are taken. Additionally, the State and local governments will be better equipped to educate the general public about the risks they face so they can take more responsibility for their own safety. The data, applications, and protocols will be demonstrated in the four pilot counties selected by the State, and the accomplishments and lessons learned will be documented for the future application statewide. While the approach and deliverables will be tailored to the needs of the State and the local communities, the IHRM will demonstrate what North Carolina is capable of accomplishing and will speak to what can be done nationally with the data and resources available. Four counties throughout the state have been selected to demonstrate this risk management approach: Durham County, Edgecombe County, Macon County, and New Hanover County. The four pilot counties represent the three physiographic regions within the State (coastal, piedmont, and Blue Ridge Mountains) and have between them the full list of natural hazards. Page iii
The GTM-NCFMP will design and build analytical/communication application(s) that will demonstrate an approach for enhanced and integrated natural hazard identification, risk assessment, and communication strategies that support mitigation planning. The application(s) will be capable of: Identifying and displaying the probability of a specific natural hazard of a given magnitude and extent from a parcel up to a statewide perspective that may impact lives and property; Identifying and displaying vulnerable systems statewide (including critical infrastructure/key resources, the built environment by leveraging building footprints for structures greater than or equal to 1,000 square feet, population, etc.) that have a probability of being impacted by these natural hazards; Calculating estimated annual losses at a parcel up to a statewide level; Effectively communicating the probability of damage from each hazard, estimated losses, and appropriate mitigation actions; Determining cost-beneficial mitigation actions; Calculating and communicating estimated losses avoided at a parcel up to a statewide level from mitigation actions; Prioritizing mitigation actions; Performing all the previous items using different tiers of data (such as typical data available nationally or the best available dataset that will be developed for the four pilot counties); Preparing a local hazard mitigation plan template; Utilizing more detailed and/or current data provided by the user; and Transferring/exporting data and/or results to and from HAZUS-MH. The development of this risk management approach for the State will be organized into six activities: 1. Hazard Identification; 2. Vulnerable Systems Identification; 3. Risk Assessment and Communication; 4. Tools; 5. Mitigation; and 6. Documentation and Training. Going All-Digital The GTM-NCFMP and FEMA have made significant progress towards digital delivery of flood hazard information and products in the last few years. Digital products have equal legal standing in the NFIP with paper products, printing of paper maps is being significantly reduced (one copy only to affected communities), the graphic specifications for DFIRMs were relaxed slightly to facilitate digital production, tools have been developed to promote the use of the Page iv
digital data, the engineering data that support the flood studies is being collected and archived digitally, and planning is underway for better communicating risk to stakeholders. In order to reach its stated vision of going all-digital by FY 2011, GTM-NCFMP must begin planning and acting now in order to achieve this vision. Near-term (6 months) activities will focus on promoting the use of the current digital products, making the digital information more accessible and easier to use, beginning to provide flood risk communication instead of or in addition to flood hazard information, and planning for future products and tools. Mid-term (6 months to 1.5 years) activities will focus on developing enhanced digital products and tools, planning for a completely all-digital program, prototyping it on three or so counties, and completing the migration from providing flood hazard information to flood risk communication. Long-term (2+ years) activities will focus on fully realizing the all-digital vision, expanding the available products and tools, and including additional digital data to include additional hazards (i.e., integration with IHRM). Estimated savings on DFIRM production, Quality Assurance/Quality Control, and dissemination after the mid-term activities are implemented are approximately 54% of the existing per panel costs, or $2,400. The estimated per panel cost for DFIRM database production once the mid-term activities are implemented is $2,050 per panel. Although there is no graphic output at this stage, there is still significant work involved in performing floodplain mapping revisions, updating the information in the database for each revision, and ensuring the data in the database are correct and are stored in the right places so they can be used by all applications replace the graphic products. Multiple Water Surface Profiles and 2-D Stream Analysis for Risk MAP To support the IHRM goal of enhanced flood risk identification and communication, countywide Three-Dimensional Triangular Irregular Networks (3D TINs) and elevation/depth grids will be created for multiple water surface profiles representing eight (8) flood events (i.e., 10%, 4%, 2%, 1%, and 0.2% annual chance and 10%, 20%, and 35% impervious area future conditions) where detailed or limited detail studies have been or will be performed. These products will allow the State to assess expected damages associated with each of the flood events, as well as support a comprehensive determination of estimated losses. Additionally, these products support innovative communication and facilitate the GTM-NCFMP s ability to represent the spatial and temporal variability of the likelihood of being impacted by a flood, magnitude of consequences, risk, and the ability of mitigation actions to reduce the risk. For instance, owners of structures located within the SFHA will be able to see the difference in flood depths across the width of the floodplain (as illustrated in Page v
Figure i.1) supporting the message that flood risk is not consistent within the limits of the SFHA. Figure i.1 Example of 1%-Annual-Chance Flood Depth Grid Limited Detail and Detailed Study Dam Break Analyses As part of transitioning to the IHRM program, the GTM-NCFMP recognizes the need to coordinate with and support the State s Dam Safety Program as it relates to the flood risks associated with dam breaks. There are over 1,000 public and private dams throughout the State that are classified as high hazard, which signifies a probable loss of life. However, this classification provides little guidance for communities and property owners on the likelihood of being impacted by a dam failure, let alone quantifiable damages and risks. In order to address this need, the GTM-NCFMP envisions improving the flood hazard data throughout the State to include flooding from dam failures, particularly high hazard dams. The GTM-NCFMP will leverage studies completed as part of a dam owner s preparation of Emergency Action Plans, where available. However, the availability of existing studies is anticipated to be limited based on the data collection efforts recently completed for the four IHRM demonstration counties. Beginning in FY 2012, new dam break analysis will be initiated within counties scheduled for maintenance. For estimating funding requirements, the majority of the high hazard dams within a county, or 75%, are anticipated to be studied through limited detail methods. The remaining high hazard dams, based on the needs, are assumed to need a detailed study approach. Dam Break Flood Inundation Mapping According to the North Carolina Geodetic Survey (NCGS), only about 30 high hazard dams throughout the State have associated inundation mapping. Added to the lack of mapping, there is little to no consistency in the products that are Page vi
available. Mapping not only the extent of flooding but the depth, and velocity characteristics as well as time of the flood-wave progression, are key to effective risk communication and management. Mapping products associated with dam break analyses will mirror the enhanced products being implemented by the GTM-NCFMP for riverine flood: 3D TINs and flood elevation/depth grids. These products will be incorporated into the enhanced geodatabase and leveraged in the IHRM analytical/communication tool(s) ultimately developed as part of the IHRM demonstration. FEMA s current mapping policies do not address areas at risk of being flooded by a dam break outside of the 1% annual- chance flood event. The GTM-NCFMP proposes to develop recommendations in coordination with FEMA for addressing this gap so that the residual risk can be depicted on the DFIRMs accordingly. North Carolina Sea Level Rise Risk Management Study Initiated in February 2009, the North Carolina Sea Level Rise Risk Management Study will complete an assessment of risk of sea-level rise and changes in storm frequency and intensity associated with climate change in coastal North Carolina. The two-year study will evaluate the potential changes in coastal flooding hazards due to sea-level rise and changes in storm frequency and intensity on a system-wide basis, considering built and living systems, and inclusive of societal and economic impacts. This assessment will include future vulnerability to both temporary and permanent flooding and land loss. It will also account for dynamic interactions and feedback between receptor systems. Legislative Initiatives Several of the legislative initiatives and goals of the GTM-NCFMP for FY 2010 directly improve the Federal and State s ability to perform integrated hazard risk management in the future. Collection of Highest Adjacent Grade, Lowest Adjacent Grade, and First Floor Elevations: As part of IHRM, building footprints are currently being collected and generated statewide for buildings typically greater than 1,000 square feet. With accurate floodplain and building footprint information, an assessment can be made as to what buildings are actually exposed to flood hazards; however, to effectively determine a building s flood risk, more information is required on how it was constructed. A building s susceptibility to flood damage is primarily determined by depth of flooding within the structure. Key to determining the likely depth of flooding within a building is understanding a building s elevation in relation to the flood elevation. Three building attributes establish this relationship: highest adjacent grade, lowest adjacent grade, and first, finished floor elevation. The cost for the GTM- Page vii
NCFMP to collect these data accurately statewide would be a significant burden. These attributes are typically collected during the building permit process by the local governments as part of their floodplain management requirements, but these data are generally not captured or stored in a geospatial database whereby the GTM-NCFMP could leverage them to improve the flood risk assessment. For existing development, these attributes may be collected in tandem with other property information currently required to complete property transactions. The GTM-NCFMP proposes to pursue legislation that requires that key building attributes, such as these, be captured for all property transactions and building permits issued within the State and delivered to the GTM-NCFMP on a regular basis. Also at the Federal level establish a plan to be implemented by 2012 that would require FEMA to develop a plan. The specifications for how the data are collected (e.g., accuracy requirements) and delivered as well as cost implications for doing so compared to the cost for acquiring these data through other, potentially less accurate methods, will be developed by the GTM-NCFMP in FY 2010. Map Maintenance Cost-Share Match Requirement: North Carolina recommends that the 25% cash match requirement for flood map maintenance (as directed in House Report 110-862 accompanying the Department of Homeland Security [DHS] 2009 Appropriations Bill) be reduced to 15%, but be expanded to cover all flood mapping activities and not be limited to map maintenance. Lowering the cost-share requirement should allow more CTPs to participate in Map Maintenance and increase greater leverage for their investments in quality flood hazard data and mapping, especially in light of budget constraints and cutbacks imposed on state, local, regional, and tribal governments imposed by current economic conditions. Community Assistance Program Funding: North Carolina advocates that a more rigorous, transparent methodology that considers risk and population growth be implemented for allocating Community Assistance Program-State Support Services Element (CAP-SSSE) funding grants to individual states. Published CAP-SSSE guidance indicates that grant application evaluations and awards are based upon need, state capability, performance, and FEMA regional priorities. However, in practice, grants are typically allocated to awardees on an equal basis. National Digital Elevation Acquisition and Utilization Plan: As an experienced producer and user of Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) data for floodplain mapping on a statewide basis, North Carolina expresses its strong interest in, Page viii
and commitment to, collaborating closely with FEMA and its other Federal partners in formulation of this National Digital Elevation Acquisition and Utilization Plan, as directed in House Report 111-157 accompanying the DHS 2010 Appropriations Bill. State House Bill 381: House Bill 381 broadens the powers of the Department of Crime Control and Public Safety, Division of Emergency Management. The Bill supports the application of policies, practices, and resources to the identification, assessment, and control or risk associated with hazards affecting human health, safety, and property. Hazard risk and cost-benefit analysis are used to support development of risk reduction options, program objectives, and prioritization of issues and resources. Proposed Partnering Program Accomplishment Initiatives GTM-NCFMP has a demonstrated record of accomplishing its vision for map modernization, map maintenance, and integrated hazard risk management. Below are examples of how the GTM-NCFMP is adding quality to their product and is at the forefront of both DFIRM mapping and integrated hazard risk management: Statewide use of LIDAR- derived elevation data GTM-NCFMP Elevation Data Maintenance Program development to ensure regular maintenance to the statewide elevation dataset 28,778 stream miles analyzed and quality reviewed, completing the hydraulic and hydrologic flood studies for the initial statewide mapping initiative 10,003 preliminary DFIRM panels, 100 counties, preliminary statewide mapping complete 9,209 effective DFIRM panels, 94 counties Most Approximate Zone A areas replaced with Zone AE with base flood elevations and cross sections Map Maintenance Scoping performed for 58 counties and their incorporated communities 1,142 stream miles analyzed and quality reviewed for map maintenance counties funded in FY 2008 Issuance of 133 LOMCs through the MT-2 Delegation program ADCIRC modeling and analysis for NC coastline currently underway 24-hour access to free digital data (Flood Insurance Study Reports, DFIRM panels, vector data, imagery, topographic data, etc.) available to the public at preliminary and effective stages via www.ncfloodmaps.com (over 35,000 website hits per day) Initiation of the IHRM Advisory Committee Implementation of the Planning and Design stage of IHRM. Page ix
Please refer to Appendix N for Program Accomplishments. Program Funding and Alternatives Over $170 million has been allocated to the GTM-NCFMP over the past 9 years. FEMA has provided $87.74 million and the State of North Carolina has provided $83.35 million. The elements of the GTM-NCFMP that will require funding over the 5-year period FY 2010 through 2014 are: 1. GTM-NCFMP IHRM Project, which includes: a. IHRM Activities; b. Map Maintenance i. State-initiated flood data updates for Unmet Needs (Riverine); ii. Redelineation upgrades to new detailed study for Unmet Needs (Riverine); iii. MT-2 LOMCs; iv. MT-1 Letters of Map Revision-based on Fill to be delegated and funded starting in FY 2011; v. Dam break limited detail and detailed study analysis to be funded and implemented starting in FY 2011; and c. Grant Management, Scoping, and Provisionally Accredited Levee Analysis. The General Assembly of the State of North Carolina allocated funding to the GTM-NCFMP to cover a cost share of the map maintenance costs. For the FY 2010 activities, the State of North Carolina will provide a 25% cost share for the map maintenance activities, and the State requests that FEMA fund the remaining costs for FY 2010 2014 as depicted in the table below. A 25% State match is shown for each year starting in FY 2010. The GTM-NCFMP recommends that statutory language changes be implemented to reduce the current requirement of 25% CTP match for map maintenance activities to 15%. Once this legislative initiative is implemented, GTM-NCFMP will revise the total requested FEMA funding for FY 2011-2014 to reflect a 15% State match. As shown in the table below, the State requests $11.13 M in FY 2010 for completion of the map maintenance studies to resolve unmet needs for 17 counties; $650,000 in FY 2010 for MT-2 LOMC case processing activities for Years 4 and 5 of the pilot delegation program; and $261,750 for FY 2010 Grant Management, Scoping, and Provisionally Accredited Levee Analysis. Page x
Map Maintenance GTM-NCFMP Projected Annual Costs and Funding Request Program Element FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 Total Funding Requirement $14.84 $11.39 $18.17 $9.17 $12.79 $66.35 State Cost Share $3.71 $2.85 $4.54 $2.29 $3.20 $16.59 Letters of Map Change (no State match) $0.65 $0.39 $0.39 $0.39 $0.39 $2.21 CTP Grant Management, Scoping, & Provisionally Accredited Levee Funding Requirement (no State match) $0.26 $0.27 $0.28 $0.29 $0.30 $1.41 Total Requested FEMA Funding $12.04 $9.20 $14.30 $7.56 $10.29 $53.38 Importance of Full Funding North Carolina, in partnership with FEMA, embarked on the GTM-NCFMP with the intention of remapping the entire State. Therefore, it is critical that the program be fully funded to: Maintain current momentum and continued support of the Governor and General Assembly. Meet the GTM-NCFMP s and FEMA s commitment to all the communities and citizens of North Carolina to provide accurate, easy-to-access flood hazard and risk data. Demonstrate to other States contemplating mapping programs FEMA s commitment to supporting such programs. Without FEMA funding, North Carolina will not be able to meet its scheduled goals identified in this Plan, nor the expectations of its citizens and communities. Additionally, the GTM-NCFMP has optimized, efficient systems in place; anything less than peak production will reduce the economies of scale and increase unit costs. Please refer to Appendix O for Performance Measures and Goals. Pilot Initiatives In addition to the other innovative initiatives that are being undertaken by the GTM-NCFMP has identified six pilot programs to be proposed. These programs will not only be of benefit at the state level but Federal level as well. The GTM- NCFMP goal is to begin the implementation of these beginning in FY 2010. Pilot initiatives propose to FEMA to conduct in 2010-2014 include: Implement a process that moves from a traditional panel-driven process to a digital-driven process Page xi
Implement a design and prototype for risk assessment data maps, reports and vision for flood-related hazards (riverine, coastal, storm surge, dams and levees) Implement a prototype that will complete and incorporate economic/physical consequences modeling for flood risk mapping Implement a design and prototype for incorporating risk assessment criteria and data into the Risk Map prioritization process Implement and design a prototype that integrates the inundation in mapping for dams and levees into floodplain maps Implement and design a prototype for hydrology and hydraulic methodology for limited and detailed dam break analysis Page xii
Table of Contents Executive Summary... i Vision... i Programmatic Initiatives... iii Legislative Initiatives... vii Proposed Partnering Program Accomplishment Initiatives... ix Program Funding and Alternatives... x Pilot Initiatives... xi Acronyms and Abbreviations... xv I. Introduction... I-1 Background... I-1 Integrated Hazard Risk Management... I-2 Benefits... I-9 GTM-NCFMP Objectives and Business Rules... I-9 II. Legislative Initiatives/Goals... II-12 Collection of HAG/LAG and First Floor Elevations... II-12 Congressional Directive for FEMA to Coordinate Collection and Utilization of High-Resolution LIDAR... II-13 Digital Vision Implementation... II-14 Reduction of CTP Match Requirement at Federal Level... II-15 Proposed NFIP Formula Change... II-15 State House Bill 381... II-16 III. Five Year Strategy and Plan... III-1 GTM Vision for IHRM... III-1 Scheduled Activities... III-4 Sea-Level Rise Risk Management Study... III-16 Map Maintenance Program... III-18 State Commitment... III-24 Business Case... III-24 Program Administration and Support... III-25 IV. Program Funding and Alternatives... IV-1 Program Funding to Date... IV-1 FY 2010-2014 Program Funding Requirements... IV-2 Funding Level Variations... IV-7 Page xiii
Tables Table IV.1: Funding Sources to Date for the GTM-NCFMP... IV-1 Table IV.2: Projected FY 2010-2014 Funding Requirements for GTM-NCFMP... IV-3 Table IV.3: Requested FEMA Funding for FY 2010-2014... IV-4 Table IV.4: Funding Responsibilities for the GTM-NCFMP... IV-8 Figures Figure i.1 Example of 1%-Annual-Chance Flood Depth Grid... vi Figure I.1 GTM-NCFMP Status Map... I-5 Figure I.2 GTM-NCFMP Goals for Statewide DFIRM Production and Map Adoption for FY 2010-2014... I-6 Figure I.3 GTM-NCFMP Goals for Statewide DFIRM Production and Map Adoption for FY 2010-2014... I-7 Figure I.4 GTM-NCFMP Goals for Statewide DFIRM Production and Map Adoption for FY 2010-2014... I-8 Figure: III.1 FEMA Risk Mapping, Assessment, and Planning (Risk MAP) Multi-Year Plan: Fiscal Years 2010-2014, March 16, 2009... III-3 Figure: III.1A North Carolina Risk Mapping, Assessment, and Planning (Risk Map) Multi-Year Plan: Fiscal Year 2010-2014, May 8, 2009... III-3 Figure: III.2 Four NC Prototype Counties... III-5 Figure III.3 Example of 1%-Annual Chance Flood Depth Grid... III-11 Appendices Appendix A CTS Agreement Appendix B List of GTM-NCFMP Issue Papers Appendix C North Carolina Flood Map Mod Project Tracker Appendix D GTM-NCFMP QA/QC Procedures Issue Paper Appendix E List of GTM-NCFMP Fact Sheets Appendix F Mapping Activity Statements to be submitted under separate cover Appendix G Draft Language for Statutory Changes Appendix H Resource Allocation Tool (RAT) Appendix I DFIRM Production Process Appendix J FEMA Key Performance Indicators (Calculations) Appendix K Budget Projections (Calculations) Appendix L FEMA Delegation of MT-1 LOMC Processing to GTM-NCFMP Appendix M Digital Vision Implementation Report Appendix N Program Accomplishments Appendix O Performance Measures and Goals Page xiv
Acronyms and Abbreviations ACSM AEC ASCE BFE CAC CAP CAP/SSSE CAVs CFS CI/KRs cm CNMS CRS CTP CTS DEM DFIRM DHS DOQQ EDA EPA ESRI FEMA FIRM FIS FY GIS GTM-NCFMP HAG HAZUS-MH IT IHRM IMS JES-PDM KPI LAG LIDAR LOMA American Congress on Surveying and Mapping Areas of Environmental Concern American Society of Civil Engineers Base Flood Elevation Community Assistance Contact Community Assistance Program Community Assistance Program/State Support Services Element Community Assistance Visits Certified Floodplain Surveyor Critical Infrastructure and Key Resource sectors centimeter Coordinated Needs Management Strategy Community Rating System Cooperating Technical Partners Cooperating Technical State Digital Elevation Model Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map Department of Homeland Security Digital Orthophoto Quarter Quadrangle Economic Development Administration Environmental Protection Agency Environmental Systems Research Institute Federal Emergency Management Agency Flood Insurance Rate Map Flood Insurance Study Fiscal Year Geographic Information System Geospatial and Technology Management - North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program Highest Adjacent Grade Hazards United States Multi-Hazard Information Technology Integrated Hazard Risk Management Internet Mapping Service Joint Explanatory Statement-Predisaster Mitigation Key Performance Indicator Lowest Adjacent Grade Light Detection and Ranging Letter of Map Amendment Page xv
LOMC Letter of Map Change LOMR Letter of Map Revision LOMR-F Letter of Map Revision - based on Fill MAS Mapping Activity Statement MCC Map Coordination Contractor MENCA Mapping and Engineering Needs Community Assessment MICS Monitoring Information for Contracted Studies MIP Mapping Information Platform MMMS Map Modernization Management Support MNUSS Mapping Needs Update Support System NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NAVD 88 North American Vertical Datum of 1988 NCAFPM North Carolina Association of Floodplain Managers NCDOT North Carolina Department of Transportation NCEM North Carolina Division of Emergency Management NCFMIS Floodplain Mapping Information System NCGS North Carolina Geodetic Survey NFIP National Flood Insurance Program NHMP Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NPDES National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System NWS National Weather Service PAL Provisionally Accredited Levee PMR Physical Map Revision PTS Production and Technical Services QA/QC Quality Assurance/Quality Control RAT Resource Allocation Tool Risk MAP Risk (Mapping, Assessment, and Planning) RMC Regional Management Center RMSE Root Mean Square Error SFHA Special Flood Hazard Area SLOSH Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes TIN Triangulated Irregular Network UDO Unified Development Ordinance USACE U.S. Army Corps of Engineers USGS U.S. Geological Survey WMS Web Mapping Service Page xvi
I. Introduction This Business Plan, prepared by the North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program (GTM-NCFMP) at the request of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), sets forth the State s strategy for, and role in, the transition from the identification of a single hazard to a multi-hazard, risk-focused approach that integrates risk communication and mitigation in a management perspective over the next five years. Specifically, this plan shows how the GTM-NCFMP will: Build upon the success of the GTM-NCFMP (statewide Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map [DFIRM] production) and leverage existing watershed-based modeling data, statewide digital flood hazard data, and existing tools and procedures to provide valuable risk information supporting prevention, response, and mitigation activities by establishing the Integrated Hazard Risk Management (IHRM) program; Champion key legislative initiatives and goals to directly improve the State s ability to perform integrated hazard risk management in the future; Utilize the GTM-NCFMP IHRM program as a demonstration state for FEMA s Risk MAP (Mapping, Assessment, and Planning) initiative; Expedite priority initiatives to design and prototype IHRM program deliverables; and Transition from hardcopy and digital production and dissemination to digitalonly product. Background The State of North Carolina, with its population of 8,856,505 (based on 2006 U.S. Census Bureau estimates), faces extreme hazards and consequences from hurricanes, tropical storms, and flooding. Since 1989, there have been 26+ federally declared disasters in North Carolina. Damage from Hurricane Floyd alone has reached $3.5 billion. In 2004, the State was hit with four hurricanes and, as a result, 95 of the 100 counties in North Carolina received disaster declarations. The State of North Carolina is also vulnerable to other hazards, including dam failure, levee failure, coastal erosion, landslides, earthquakes, wildfire, high hazard winds, tornados, snow, ice, hail, and drought, that significantly impact stakeholder risk. The State s vulnerability to these hazards makes it crucial that communities and property owners have accurate, up-todate information about their risk. In response to ongoing hazards, North Carolina has committed to support and implement the following strategies: Page I-1
Strategy 1 Establishment of a statewide program to acquire, process, and disseminate current, accurate, and detailed elevation data, flood hazard studies, reports, and maps (hard copy and digital) and enhancement of this program to move from one hazard (floods) to multiple hazards and from hardcopy deliverables to an all-digital program. Strategy 2 Establishment of North Carolina as a Cooperating Technical State (CTS) through FEMA s Cooperating Technical Partners (CTP) program. This designation establishes North Carolina as the primary custodian for all DFIRMs and flood hazard data in the State. Strategy 3 Establishment of a statewide program and capability to determine, display, and provide an alert regarding what land, roads, and/or bridges are currently inundated by floodwater and which ones will be in the near future (forecast). Strategy 4 Enhance risk identification, assessment, communication, and mitigation planning through the GTM-NCFMP IHRM program, which is similar to FEMA s vision for Risk MAP. Since August 2000, the State of North Carolina has allocated over $83 million toward establishment of the GTM-NCFMP and statewide remapping and maintenance. When North Carolina and FEMA signed the CTS agreement that designated the State as the first CTS in September 2000, the GTM-NCFMP was created. (A copy of the CTS agreement is included in this Plan as Appendix A.) The GTM-NCFMP and FEMA affirmed their mutual commitment to a program to perform wall-to-wall remapping of the entire State and to transition responsibility for flood hazard mapping and map maintenance in North Carolina from FEMA to the GTM-NCFMP. With the completion of the Map Modernization initiative and the transition to FEMA s Risk MAP initiative, the GTM-NCFMP and FEMA affirmed their mutual commitment to a program to identify, assess, communicate, and mitigate hazard risk through the GTM-NCFMP IHRM program. Integrated Hazard Risk Management The overall goals of IHRM are to: Reduce risk from natural hazards; Improve resilience of the public and private sectors following hazard impacts; Reduce the time for recovery through preparation; and Coordinate decision making by the public and private sectors through common operating data. Page I-2
In order to improve an individual s, a community s, and the State s ability to manage risk, the IHRM program aims to: Identify and communicate key natural hazards impacting North Carolina; Identify and communicate key vulnerable systems (structures, population, critical infrastructure) within the State; Identify and model the interdependency between the 18 critical infrastructure and key resource sectors (CI/KRs) and the consequences from failure; Develop methodology and metrics for assessing risk and risk reduction; Develop methodology and metrics for prioritizing risk reduction actions; and Design tools that effectively analyze and communicate risk and risk reduction. In FY 2008, FEMA provided funding to the State through both a CTP agreement and Joint Explanatory Statement-Predisaster Mitigation (JES-PDM) grant to demonstrate how multi-hazard risk information can be integrated to reduce losses of life and property. The data, tools, applications, and protocols developed as part of this IHRM demonstration will be focused on supporting the State and local governments in determining who and what are at risk, developing appropriate mitigation actions, and improving the ability to measure the reduction in risk as actions are taken. Additionally, the State and local governments will be better equipped to educate the general public about the risks they face so they can make informed decisions on how to better protect themselves and their property. The strategies will be demonstrated in four pilot counties (Durham, Edgecombe, Macon, and New Hanover) and the accomplishments and lessons learned will be documented for future application statewide. While the approach and deliverables will be tailored to the needs of the State and the local communities, the IHRM will demonstrate what North Carolina is capable of accomplishing and will speak to what can be done nationally with the data and resources available. To date, the GTM-NCFMP has made significant progress toward the stated goals. Below are examples of how the GTM-NCFMP is adding quality to their product and is at the forefront of both DFIRM mapping and integrated hazard risk management: Statewide use of Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR)- derived elevation data GTM-NCFMP Elevation Data Maintenance Program development to ensure regular maintenance of the statewide elevation dataset 28,778 stream miles analyzed and quality reviewed, completing the hydraulic and hydrologic flood studies for the initial statewide mapping initiative 10,003 preliminary DFIRM panels, 100 counties, preliminary statewide mapping complete 9,209 effective DFIRM panels, 94 counties Page I-3
Most Approximate Zone A areas replaced with Zone AE with BFEs and cross sections Map Maintenance Scoping performed for 58 counties and their incorporated communities 1,142 stream miles analyzed and quality reviewed for map maintenance counties funded in FY 2008 Issuance of 133 Letters of Map Change (LOMCs) through the MT-2 Delegation program ADCIRC modeling and analysis for North Carolina coastline currently underway 24-hour access to free digital data (Flood Insurance Study [FIS] Reports, DFIRM panels, vector data, imagery, topographic data, etc.) available to the public at preliminary and effective stages via www.ncfloodmaps.com (over 35,000 website hits per day) Initiation of the IHRM Advisory Committee Implementation of the Planning and Design stage of IHRM Spatially identified building footprints in 48 counties. Figure I.1 shows the status of DFIRM production and maintenance under the GTM-NCFMP as of October 31, 2009. Page I-4
Figure I.1 GTM-NCFMP Status Map Page I-5
Figure I.2 GTM-NCFMP Goals for Statewide DFIRM Production and Map Adoption for FY 2010-2014 Page I-6
Figure I.3 GTM-NCFMP Goals for Statewide DFIRM Production and Map Adoption for FY 2010-2014 Page I-7
Figure I.4 GTM-NCFMP Goals for Statewide DFIRM Production and Map Adoption for FY 2010-2014 Page I-8
Benefits The GTM-NCFMP provides numerous benefits to North Carolina communities and citizens, including: The updated flood hazard data provide current, accurate information for North Carolina communities and property owners to make sound siting and design decisions when rebuilding after flooding disasters, when building new structures and infrastructure, and when retrofitting existing structures. It is estimated that $102.1 million of future flood losses per year will be avoided if 20-percent of developable properties within the state are built using flood hazard data produced by the GTM-NCFMP. The use of the updated flood hazard data by communities for floodplain management dramatically reduces long-term flood losses in the State of North Carolina. Updated flood hazard data alerts those at risk of flooding of the need to purchase and maintain flood insurance. It is faster and cheaper to update DFIRMs. Current, updated base maps and the digital format of the FIRMs allow users to make more precise flood risk determinations. The format of the DFIRMs also allows them to be used with a Geographic Information System (GIS) for analysis and planning. The GIS allows online access to all maps 24 hours a day. The Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) are useful for many engineering and planning applications, such as site design, stormwater management, transportation planning and design, and hazardous spill response. Local communities or counties can use LIDAR data for orthophotography production, which is an estimated statewide savings of $3 million per year. GTM-NCFMP Objectives and Business Rules The GTM-NCFMP continues to work towards the following objectives: Define boundaries and Base Flood Elevations (BFEs) for Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs). Current, accurate digital elevation data/models (20-25 centimeter [cm] Root Mean Square Error [RMSE]). For all watersheds 1.0-square mile or more in rural areas and 0.5-square mile or more in urban areas, replace all unnumbered A Zones with BFEs (limited detail and/or detailed studies). Next-generation, statewide, seamless DFIRM paneling. Minimize long-term losses through better floodplain management. Page I-9
Time and cost-efficient DFIRM updates (from engineering model development to map effective date = 104 weeks). Efficient and time-sensitive DFIRM maintenance. Strong community buy-in of DFIRMS/low appeals and protests. Provide 24-hour free, online access to GIS data, flood maps, and reports (enhanced DFIRM database). In response to the transition to IHRM, the GTM-NCFMP has added these additional objectives: Minimize long-term losses through better floodplain management and risk communication. Use accurate, detailed, digital data to make more precise risk determinations. Serve as the State s lead for coordinating information and resources related to hazard risk management including: - Coordinate with supporting State agencies and county governments in conducting hazard risk analysis. - Establish and maintain a hazard risk management information system and tools to display natural hazards and vulnerable systems/assets, and which can be used for conducting risk assessments. - Acquire and leverage all natural hazard data generated or maintained by State agencies and county governments. - Acquire and leverage all vulnerable systems/asset data generated or maintained by State agencies and county governments. - Maintain a clearinghouse for methodologies and metrics for calculating and communicating the frequency of natural hazards and estimated losses. Utilize and maintain technology that enables efficient and effective communication and management of resources between all local, State, and other governmental entities involved in risk management. The GTM-NCFMP operationally utilizes, and has documented in 69 Issue Papers, the following business rules for its program: Leverage efficient and effective technology and procedures for more efficient digital/map modernization for new maps/future updates (GIS, LIDAR, etc.). Provide complete coverage in North Carolina (i.e., maps, base, and elevation data). Study as many miles of stream as needed and possible (basin threshold/ efficient limited detailed approach). Page I-10
Require hard copy (snapshot) and digital (living) version different purposes, valued products for each. Emphasize the establishment of distributed digital data sharing with counties/municipalities. Leverage program deliverables to defray the overall cost and further implement other programs (e.g., North Carolina Flood Inundation Mapping and Alert Network). Meet FEMA s requirements at a minimum, and exceed where possible (Map Maintenance and Risk MAP requirements). Encourage and promote strong, up-front community involvement and buy-in. Leverage existing data and analysis done by local and State governments. Emphasize strong partnering with potential users of maps, data, applications (i.e., U.S. Geological Survey [USGS], National Weather Service [NWS], North Carolina Department of Transportation [NCDOT], Commerce Economic Development Administration [EDA], Environmental Protection Agency [EPA]). Manage program centrally; utilize distributed lead partners. Require documentation (Business Rules and Procedures). Produce build-able/scale-able products. Share and/or learn from everyone. Page I-11
II. Legislative Initiatives/Goals The legislative initiatives/goals of the GTM-NCFMP for FY 2010, as outlined below, directly improve the State s ability to perform integrated hazard risk management in the future. Enacting legislation to collect, in a consistent manner statewide, key building attribute data (Highest Adjacent Grade [HAG], Lowest Adjacent Grade [LAG], and finished floor elevation) that are often captured by local governments through other processes will improve the ability to identify the buildings that are vulnerable to natural hazards, especially riverine and coastal flooding. Secondly, upgrading the State s digital topographic data improves the GTM-NCFMP s ability to accurately identify and map current flood hazard areas. Lastly, implementation of the GTM-NCFMP s digital vision will allow valuable resources that are currently directed to the production and issue of paper DFIRMs and FIS Reports to be applied to collecting hazard and vulnerable systems data and performing studies (such as dam-break analyses) to continue improving the identification of flood-related hazards statewide. A reduction to the Federal requirement for CTP match for map maintenance funds will allow more CTPs to participate in Map Maintenance and increase greater leverage for their investments in quality flood hazard data and mapping. The development of a new National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Community Assistance Program- State Support Services Element (CAP-SSSE) funding methodology that is transparent and considers risk and population growth be implemented for allocating will allow CTPs with robust data and programs to take advantage of additional funds to further the risk information available to constituents. The North Carolina State House Bill 381 grants further responsibility to, and broadens the powers of, the GTM-NCFMP. The GTM-NCFMP is a program within the North Carolina Division of Emergency Management, which allows the GTM-NCFMP to further support and implement the legislative goals and initiatives outlined in this plan. All of these improvements will directly increase the accuracy of the risk assessments and the determination of expected economic losses resulting from natural disasters. Accurate risk information will support the State s, local s, and Tribal government s abilities to engage in risk-based mitigation planning to effectively reduce or eliminate risks to life and property from natural hazards. Collection of HAG/LAG and First Floor Elevations In order to meet the overall goals of IHRM, risk must be understood at the individual property level so that effective solutions (both structural and nonstructural) can be developed to mitigate the risk. Flood-related disasters have produced significant losses throughout the state and present a continuing need for risk reduction. As previously discussed, the GTM-NCFMP and FEMA have Page II-12