TRT TRASPORTI E TERRITORIO SRL Results of DEMOCRITOS project The case study of GENOVA Francesca FERMI - Enrico PASTORI Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies Milano 23.06.2011
Content of the presentation Modellingthe Mobility Credits Scheme Set up of policy scenarios Scenario results in Genova Tests for the city of Milan Conclusion Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano 23.06.2011 2
Modelling the Mobility Credits Scheme MCP tool (32 zones) LAND USE MODEL Re-localization impacts TRANSPORT GENERATION MODEL MCP MODEL Impacts on transport demand Economic balance estimation Impacts on car fleet composition Expenditure OD matrices by mode Time Car fleet composition Network model (330 zones) TRANSPORT MODEL assignment of OD matrices (by mode) to the network EMISSION MODEL Emissions estimation by link Households budget and local authority revenues Passenger demand (trips suppressed, mode shift, credits purchased) Transport performances (congestion, traffic flows, ) Pollutants emissions and fuel consumption Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano 23.06.2011 3
Modelling the Mobility Credits Scheme MCP tool(system Dynamics application with VENSIM ) combined with a multimodal network model(genovamtcp application), MCP tool Private motorized mobility(including motorcycles) Private transport demand segmentedby population group: Income level, Employment, Day of the week, Time of the day, Trip purpose, Mode, by OD short-terms reactions: purchase credits, mode shift, shift from peak to off-peak period, suppressing trips medium-long terms reactions: Vehicle fleet composition MCP implementation at the year 2011 (run 2006 2020) Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano 23.06.2011 4
Mobility Area: Set up of policy scenarios (Genova Municipality) Narrow (City center, 5 zones) Population >18 520 000 ind. Population >18 100 000 ind. (total population >18 750000 ind.) AM peak hour: AM peak hour: Trips 160000 Trips 80000 Private mobility 41% (10% moto) Private mobility 30% (9% moto) Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano 23.06.2011 5
Set up of policy scenarios Sustainable Externality Load Rules of Consumptions Externality Load Mobility Budget / pers Base Credit value Wide area Sc. A1 Sc. A2 Soft (80% of BAU Externality Load) Strong (50% of BAU Externality Load) Distance, Euro Standard GHG + congestion + pollutants 27 credits 1.15 euro Distance GHG 17 0.10 credits euro Sc. A3 Strong (50% of BAU Externality Load) Euro Standard GHG 17 0.10 credits euro Narrow area Sc. B1 Sc. B2 Soft (80% of BAU Externality Load) Strong (50% of BAU Externality Load) Euro Standard GHG + 9 credits 1.15 congestion euro + pollutants Euro Standard GHG + 5 credits 1.15 congestion euro + pollutants Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano 23.06.2011 6
Set up of policy scenarios Quantification of Mobility Credit Value and Free Mobility Budget Economic Impact of BAU Externality Load(Euro) BAU Mobility Load (trips) Base Credit value (Euro/credit, with 1 credit/trip) Economic Impact of SustainableExternality Load (Euro) TotalCredit Amount in the Area (# credits) Individual Free Mobility Budget (# credits/individual) Subjects (individuals) Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano 23.06.2011 7
Summary Scenario results in Genova Results of scenarios at the year 2013 - Case study of Genova 0% Private mobility variation Private mobility CO2 variation Time lost variation (Municipality area) % of trips"forced" to shift on PT -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% Sc A1 Sc A2 Sc A3 ScB1 narrow ScB2 narrow Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano 23.06.2011 8
Scenario results in Genova Private mobility variation (% on total demand) Private mobility variation (car and motorcycle) 5% 0% Time -5% 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020-10% % trips variation -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% -45% -50% Sc A1 Sc A2 Sc A3 ScB1 narrow ScB2 narrow Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano 23.06.2011 9
Scenario results in Genova Reactions of private passenger demand (affected by the MCP) at 2013 Reactions of private demand at 2013 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2% 4% 6% 0% 0% 9% 11% 35% 55% Sc A1 30% 27% 37% 23% 38% 34% Sc A2 Sc A3 40% 48% ScB1 narrow 46% 22% 32% ScB2 narrow Free Private trips Private trips shifted to PT Private trips with Extra-Credit purchase Private trips suppressed Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano 23.06.2011 10
Scenario results in Genova Reactions of private passenger demand (affected by the MCP) at 2020 Reactions of private demand at 2020 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0% 4% 7% 30% 63% Sc A1 30% 29% 27% 28% 39% 39% Sc A2 4% Sc A3 0% 6% 38% 56% ScB1 narrow 0% 36% 27% 37% ScB2 narrow Free Private trips Private trips shifted to PT Private trips with Extra-Credit purchase Private trips suppressed Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano 23.06.2011 11
Mode split at 2013 Scenario results in Genova Mode split in a working day at 2013 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 36% 36% 12% 5% 11% 45% 41% Reference Sc A1 36% 16% 20% 8% 36% 7% 32% 29% Sc A2 Sc A3 36% 2% 12% 36% 7% 10% 43% 40% ScB1 narrow ScB2 narrow Car Moto Bus (shifted) Bus Train Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano 23.06.2011 12
Mode split at 2020 Scenario results in Genova Mode split in a working day at 2020 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 36% 36% 12% 3% 11% 45% 42% Reference Sc A1 36% 36% 15% 15% 8% 8% 33% 33% Sc A2 Sc A3 36% 36% 1% 6% 11% 10% 44% 41% ScB1 narrow ScB2 narrow Car Moto Bus (shifted) Bus Train Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano 23.06.2011 13
Scenario results in Genova Average expenditure for Extra-credits purchase by population group (high/low income) at 2013 90 Average quarterly expenditure for Extra-Credits purchase - year 2013 80 70 Euro / pers quarter 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 high low high low high low high low high low Sc A1 Sc A2 Sc A3 ScB1 narrow ScB2 narrow Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano 23.06.2011 14
Scenario results in Genova Local authorityrevenues 14 12 Local authority revenues Time 10 (Milion Euro/quarter) 8 6 4 2 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Sc A1 Sc A2 Sc A3 ScB1 narrow ScB2 narrow Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano 23.06.2011 15
Scenario results in Genova Comparison with pure cordon pricing (narrow MA) (1.15 euro per trips, with lower charge for motorcycle and during weekend) Results of scenarios at the year 2013 - Case study of Genova 0% Private mobility variation CO2 variation Time lost variation (Municipality area) % reduction of trips willing to purchase Extra-credits -10% -20% -30% -40% 30 25 Average quarterly expenditure for Extra-Credits purchase - year 2013-50% -60% -70% Euro / pers quarter 20 15 10 Sc Pricing narrow ScB1 narrow ScB2 narrow 5 0 high low high low high low Sc Pricing narrow ScB1 narrow ScB2 narrow Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano 23.06.2011 16
Mobility Area: Tests for the city of Milan Extensive(Milan Province) Wide (Milan municipality) Population >18 3 000 000 ind. Population >18 1 000 000 ind. AM peak hour: AM peak hour: Trips 480000 Trips 280000 Private mobility 64% (6% moto) Private mobility 44% (9% moto) City of Milan 20 zones Province of Milan 4 zones Nord East South - West Rest of region 4 zones Nord East South/East South/West Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano 23.06.2011 17
Policy tests/scenarios Tests for definition the city of Milan Scenario / elements Sustainable Externality Load Rules of Consumptions Mobility area Externality Load Sc. A1 Soft (80% of BAU Externality Load) Distance, Euro Standard Wide area GHG + congestion + pollutants Sc. A2 Strong (50% of BAU Externality Load) Distance Wide area GHG Sc. A3 Strong (50% of BAU Externality Load) Euro Standard Wide area GHG Sc. E1 Soft (80% of BAU Externality Load) Distance, Euro Standard Extensive area GHG + congestion + pollutants Sc. E2 Strong (80% of BAU Externality Load) Distance (decreasing), Euro Standard Extensive area GHG + congestion + pollutants Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano 23.06.2011 18
Summary Tests for the city of Milan Results of scenarios at the year 2013 - Case study of Milan 0% Private mobility variation Private mobility CO2 variation Time lost variation (Municipality area) % of trips"forced" to shift on PT -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% Sc A1 Sc A2 Sc A3 Sc E1 extensive Sc E2 extensive Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano 23.06.2011 19
Tests for the city of Milan Average expenditure for Extra-credits purchase by population group (high/low income) Average quarterly expenditure for Extra-Credits purchase - year 2013 180 160 140 Euro / pers quarter 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 high low high low high low high low high low Sc A1 w ide Sc A2 w ide Sc A3 w ide Sc E1 extensive Sc E2 extensive Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano 23.06.2011 20
Conclusion Main findings of the Mobility Credit Scheme: Flexible tool with respect to pure road pricing Increased equity and acceptabilitywith respect to pure road pricing Two degrees of freedomto set the policy (intensity and differentiation of the charge and sustainable credit budget threshold) Warning on required improvement of public transport service in extreme scenarios Workshop Beyond the road pricing policies: concept, acceptabilty and available technologies Milano 23.06.2011 21
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