International Market Trends Presentation by TeleGeography January 15, 2012
TeleGeography Research Areas International voice traffic Internet backbone capacity, traffic, and IP transit pricing Long-haul network supply, demand, and pricing International IP VPN and Ethernet services, providers,and prices Global Colocation Database GlobalComms Database of wireless, wireline and broadband regulation, subscribers and competition 4G Wireless LTE & WiMAX service providers, deployments, prices, and forecasts
International Voice Market Trends Patrick Christian +1-202-741-0043 pchristian@telegeography.com
International Voice Traffic Growth Continues to Drop But at a Slower Pace
Global Slowdown Continues Outbound Traffic by Region 2008-2010
Retail Price Decline v. Volume Growth, 1994-2011
Fixed-Mobile Divergence
Wholesale vs. Directly Terminated Traffic by Region
Wholesale Traffic & Revenues
Mobile Interconnection Rate Declines, 2009-2013
Top 10 Wholesale Destinations 2010
Change in Traffic and Remittances to Latin America, 2005-2010
Total International Phone and Skype Traffic, 2005-2011
Where Did the Growth Go?
Traffic Volumes of Top Carriers, 2007-2010
Outlook Pressure from Skype-like providers will increase Skype is not the only challenger, and availability of wireless and broadband access will expand & the number of devices to make IP calls will increase. Price declines are moderate Price declines have slowed a bit, so modest growth may be enough to keep revenues from declining. Volume is still growing, but slowly Demand for int l communications is not going away anytime soon. We project that traffic will continue to grow at least a few more years at 4 percent.
International Networks Supply, Demand, and Revenue TeleGeography Tim Stronge tstronge@telegeography.com
Supply & Demand
Demand for Bandwidth Continues to Grow Used International Band dwidth (Tbps) 80 60 40 20 International Bandwidth Usage Annual Growth 100% 75% 50% 25% Annual Grow wth 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0%
Pace of Regional Growth Varies International Internet Bandwidth Growth by Region South Asia Eastern Europe Middle East Africa Latin America East Asia Western Europe U.S. & Canada Oceania 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% CAGR, 2007-2011
Absolute Growth Still Matters! International Internet Bandwidth Growth by Region South Asia Eastern Europe Middle East Africa Latin America East Asia Western Europe U.S. & Canada Oceania 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Total Growth (Gbps) 2007-2011
Perspective: Today s Small is Yesterday s Big 1,200 International Internet Bandwidth (Gbps) 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 U.S. (2000) Middle East (2010)
Demand Drivers: More Subscribers, More Capacity
Video Driving Traffic Gaming 4% VoIP/IM/Video Calling 5% IP-VPN 3% Email 2% Other 8% Web Browsing 26% P2P 19% Streamed & Buffered Audio/Video 22% Online File Storage 11%
Broadband: Cost per Downstream Mbps $160 Downstream $140 $120 $100 Monthly Cost Per Mbps $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Africa Asia & Pacific Middle East Eastern Europe Latin America & Caribbean Western Europe U.S. & Canada
Broadband: Cost per Monthly Download Cap $6 Monthly Cost per Monthly Download Cap (GB) $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 Africa Asia & Pacific Middle East Eastern Europe Latin America & Caribbean Western Europe U.S. & Canada
Subsea Capacity Expanding to Meet Demand Growth Lit Submarine Capacity by Route, 2002-2011 Notes: Data reflect lit capacity in unprotected terms at the end of the respective year. Intra-Asia capacity includes cables with landings in both Hong Kong and Japan. Trans- Pacific capacity excludes Southern Cross and Telstra Endeavour. Trans-Atlantic capacity excludes Atlantis-2.
Capacity Exhaustion Not Yet in Sight Share of Potential Capa acity that is Lit 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Trans-Atlantic Trans-Pacific U.S.-Latin America Intra-Asia India-Singapore 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Yet, More Cables on their Way 25 Actual Announced 20 Number of Ca ables 15 10 5 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Notes: Number of new cables is based on the year that the cable entered service. Cables entering service in 2012 and 2013 are based on announced contracts and TeleGeography estimates.
Why Bother Building New Cables at All? Route Diversity new physical paths are valued Latency Reduction potential to sell capacity at a premium Build-vs-Buy Strategy become an owner, not buyer, of capacity Cost Optimization use of new technology may lead to long-term unit cost reductions Competition still room for new competitors in some markets
Competition Still Not Ubiquitous % Sub-Saharan Countries Connected to Fiber-Optic Cables 100% 1 or more cables 80% 60% 40% 20% Percent Countries in Regions Connected by Fiber-Optic Cables 0% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Competition Still Not Ubiquitous % Sub-Saharan Countries Connected to Fiber-Optic Cables Percent Countries in Regions Connected by Fiber-O Optic Cables 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1 or more cables 2 or more cables 3 or more cables 4 or more cables 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
but Competition is Spreading % Countries Connected to 3 or More Fiber-Optic Cables 100% 80% Africa 60% 40% 20% 0% Europe Asia & Pacific Latin America & Caribbean 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Percent Countries in Regions Connected by 3 or More Fiber-Optic Cables
Old Destinations, New Routes With most countries connected, many new cables are using exotic (unique) routes not unique destinations South America Africa/Europe Mid-Atlantic USA Europe Trans-Atlantic via Northern Great Circle Route Northwest Passage/Arctic
Online Submarine Cable Map www.submarinecablemap.com
Pricing & Revenues
Prices Still Declining 10 Gbps Wavelength Price Erosion, 2003-2011 % of 2003 10 Gbp ps Median Monthly Lease e Price 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% London-New York Los Angeles-Tokyo Hong Kong-Tokyo Miami-Sao Paulo 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Submarine Price Differences Persist 10G Wavelength Prices per Kilometer (Monthly Lease), 2011 Monthly 10G Wave Lease Price per KM $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Hong Kong-Tokyo Miami-Sao Paulo Los Angles-Tokyo London-New York Notes: Prices reflect median monthly lease prices offered by network operators for unprotected 10 Gbps wavelengths.
Demand Growth Outpaced Price Erosion (2006-2010)
Trans-Pacific Shifting Trends
U.S.-Latin America Shifting Trends
Demand Growth Outpaced Price Erosion (2006-2010)
Less Revenue Anticipated (2010-2017)
Inspirational Message Notes: For great friendship please purchase more TeleGeography products. Inspirational message excludes you there in the third row with the yellow shirt. We re very sorry, but no one here really likes you.
Global Pricing and Enterprise Services TeleGeography Greg Bryan gbryan@telegeography.com
Why care about historical pricing? Benchmark present and recent transactions Enter new markets armed with knowledge Predicting the future Modeling revenue streams Assessing investment opportunities As Tim Stronge likes to say Yesterday s tomorrow today. BUT: I have a saying about this Predicting the future is hard. You can quote me.
Why care about historical pricing? So, to look to the future we look to the past! Source: http://www.paleofuture.com/
Why care about historical pricing? If we don t do so carefully, we can get it spectacularly wrong
Telecom Value Chain Grossly oversimplified for our purposes: Wholesale Bandwidth TDM and DWDM, submarine cable and terrestrial backbone network IP Transit / Ethernet Enterprise IP MPLS Backbone Backbone private line Enterprise Services: IP VPN, DIA Enterprise Ethernet: EPL, VPLS/L2 VPN
Pricing and Network Footprints Understanding historical pricing and the value chains goes hand in hand with understanding network footprints Global Enterprise Networks gives us a view of where carriers have been expanding enterprise services Along with the entire value chain of pricing, this assists in modeling the future prices ONWARD!
Bandwidth Pricing Trends High and low speed declines are different
Bandwidth Pricing Trends DWDM declines on key sub cable routes
Bandwidth Pricing Trends Bandwidth prices can range considerably
IP Transit Pricing Trends Global IPT prices under pressure
IP Transit Pricing Trends Trends are related to DWDM but independent
Ethernet Pricing Trends Some significant annual declines in EoMPLS
Ethernet Pricing Trends Relationship between EoMPLS and EoSDH is mixed, though generally EoMPLS is cheaper
IP VPN Pricing Trends Prices vary considerably across the globe
IP VPN versus VPLS Price curves cross at higher capacities
IP VPN versus VPLS Frankfurt curves are more pronounced
Enterprise Networks Track carrier footprints for nine services
Enterprise Networks Enterprise Product Density Data have to be normalized to compare product coverage across the number of carriers, time and geography as raw numbers can inflate growth Geography 2010 = 150 cities in 98 countries 2011 = 166 cities in 103 countries Carriers 2010 = 61 participating carriers 2011 = 73 participating carriers Method # of carriers X # of cities = total possible instances Density = # of reported sites from all carriers in all locations / total possible instances
Enterprise Networks Global product prominence
Enterprise Networks VPN coverage by region
Enterprise Networks Top Ten VPN Cities varies for on-net
Enterprise Networks Products growing at very different rates
Enterprise Networks Regional growth rates also vary
The Future! Prices will fall, but hopefully not too much! TDM the most stable, particularly in developed regions Ethernet, IPT and DWDM prices will fall based on regional competition, supply changes etc. Multiples between low capacity and high capacity bandwidth will continue to change 40G may be the new 2.5G 100G service availability will further destabilize prices IPT prices will likewise fall IPT in areas with new supply will fall harder As 100GigE ports become available prices will fall harder Ethernet will continue to grow and enter new markets, long haul and access