Global Student Mobility 2025 Forecasts of the Global Demand for Pathways to Higher Education in the Schools, VET and ELICOS sectors Andrew Hewett IDP Education Australia
Agenda and Key Issues Pathways in Australia in a competitive environment Forecasts for Pathways: 2005 to 2025 Schools VET ELICOS Key Issues in Data Collection Key Issues in Understanding the Future of Pathways Why Pathways could become more prevalent? Why Pathways could become less prevalent? How Australian institutions are positioned for pathways for the future
The Global Forecasting Model Global Student Mobility Income Higher Education participation X Population International access rate X Demand for Higher Education Historical Performance Australian market share X Demand for International Higher Education Attractiveness Transnational ratio X Forecast Demand for International Higher Education in Australia X Pathways Access Rate Forecast Demand for AustralianTransnational Higher Education Forecast Demand for Fields of Study in Australian Higher Education Forecast Demand for International Education in Australian Schools, VET, ELICOS (Pathways Only)
Pathways in Australia in a Competitive Environment The pathways sectors are defined as those programs, delivered in the non higher education sectors in Australia, that assist international students to access a higher education program at a university Pathways may include: VET (also includes Foundation) to Higher Education Schools to Higher Education ELICOS to VET to Higher Education ELICOS to Higher Education Higher Education to Vocational Education
A competitive advantage for some institutions Pathways in Australia in a Competitive Environment Increases flexibility and accessibility. This may increase attractiveness of Australian education for some source countries and regions The AQF enables seamless transition from one qualification to another A framework for most qualifications offered in Australia including Associate Degrees Links schools, VET and higher education Issues regarding credit transfer and articulation arrangements TAFEs IBTs Vertically integrated institutions
Pathways in Australia in a Competitive Environment However Australia s competitors also offer pathways to a higher education qualification at a university USA, Canada UK Secondary school university preparation program and, Community college-university articulation programs (two year associate degrees), individually negotiated. Provides no guarantee of articulation or credit transfer. Further Education Colleges can deliver Foundation Degrees New Zealand Polytechnics provide a wide range of qualifications from Certificate to degree. The distinction between them is becoming blurred.
Pathways in Australia in a Competitive Environment Number of international students in non-higher education in Australia s competitors includes all students Australia United States United Kingdom Canada New Zealand Schools 22 829 (2003) 8 094 (2001, Independent Schools only) 30 936 (1999) 6 165 (2000) VET 39 845 (2001) 98 813 (2002 - Community Colleges) 77 217 (2001 -Further Education) 17 214 (1999 Community Colleges) 4 628 (2002 Polytechnics) ELICOS 79 418 (2002) 21 237 (2002)
Forecasts for International Student Pathways to Australian Higher Education: 2005 to 2025
Why forecast pathways? Higher education forecasts based on international student mobility student data for all of Australia s competitor set. However there is a lack of data for Australia s competitors for non-higher education sectors we can t forecast international students in the schools, VET and ELICOS sectors in the same way that we have done for higher education. Instead we forecast students for that proportion accessing higher education. This data does not include students in non higher education sectors who are not accessing higher education. Foundation studies numbers are included in VET.
Pathways Access Ratios Proportion of commencing students in higher education who have previously studied in another sector in Australia Calculated for 144 countries Held constant for the period 2003-2025 A subjective calculation which takes into account: Primarily, responses to IDP Pathways survey Current and historical ratio of enrolments between schools, VET, ELICOS sectors, and the higher education
Pathways from Schools Sector
PATHWAYS ACCESS RATIO % OF COMMENCING HIGHER EDUCATION FROM SCHOOLS SECTOR TOP 10 SOURCE COUNTRIES FOR 2005 Top 10 Countries 2005 China Hong Kong Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Malaysia Korea Taiwan Singapore PNG Pathways Access Ratio 40% 18% 10% 22% 29% 6% 20% 20% 4.5% 50%
GLOBAL DEMAND FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDENTS ON PATHWAYS TO HIGHER EDUCATION IN AUSTRALIA - SCHOOLS 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 115,480 96,763 61,410 38,615 22,641 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
REGIONAL DEMAND FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDENTS ON PATHWAYS TO HIGHER EDUCATION IN AUSTRALIA SCHOOLS Region 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Growth (%) Asia 21,428 37,366 59,787 94,835 113,463 9.2% East Asia 15,806 28,614 47,357 78,334 93,861 9.8% South East Asia 5,138 7,774 10,634 14,264 16,899 6.5% South Asia 483 977 1,795 2,236 2,701 9.5% America 369 281 439 643 598 2.6% North 84 124 167 247 214 5.1% South 284 155 270 394 381 1.6% Europe 307 361 470 472 485 2.4% Africa 176 184 191 182 247 1.8% Middle East 57 69 108 147 152 5.3% Oceania 304 353 415 483 535 3.0% World 22,641 38,615 61,410 96,763 115,480 9.0%
TOP 10 SOURCE COUNTRIES SCHOOLS PATHWAYS 2005 AND 2025 Top 10 Countries 2005 China Hong Kong Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Malaysia Korea Taiwan Singapore PNG Top 10 Countries 2025 China Vietnam Indonesia Hong Kong Malaysia Thailand Korea Taiwan Nepal India
TOP 10 SOURCE COUNTRIES SCHOOLS PATHWAYS FORECAST NUMBERS OF PATHWAY STUDENTS IN 2025 Top 10 Countries 2025 China Vietnam Indonesia Hong Kong Malaysia Thailand Korea Taiwan Nepal India Forecast number of students 85947 4703 4405 4300 3209 2932 1733 1384 892 764
Pathways from VET Sector
PATHWAYS ACCESS RATIOS % OF COMMENCING HIGHER EDUCATION FROM VET SECTOR TOP 10 SOURCE COUNTRIES FOR 2005 Top 10 Countries 2005 Hong Kong Indonesia China Malaysia India Singapore Sri Lanka Bangladesh Nepal Thailand Pathways Access Ratio 50.0% 37.8% 15.0% 23.9% 7.5% 13.0% 33.1% 20.0% 33.1% 20.0%
GLOBAL DEMAND FOR INERNATIONAL STUDENTS ON PATHWAYS TO HIGHER EDUCATION IN AUSTRALIA - VET 100,000 80,000 60,000 49,739 67,066 78,691 40,000 20,000 21,046 32,960 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Region REGIONAL DEMAND FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDENTS ON PATHWAYS TO HIGHER EDUCATION IN AUSTRALIA VET SECTOR 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Growth (%) Asia 19,053 30,989 47,226 64,252 75,685 7.5% East Asia 7,489 11,737 17,397 26,109 30,243 7.6% South East Asia 7,481 10,887 14,893 20,215 23,795 6.3% South Asia 4,075 8,354 14,923 17,913 21,630 9.2% America 524 299 501 736 686 1.4% North 46 68 94 141 118 5.2% South 474 225 399 585 557 0.9% Europe 658 788 1,012 1,038 1,070 2.6% Africa 621 660 703 667 858 1.7% Middle East 79 95 146 199 202 5.1% Oceania 112 129 151 173 189 2.8% World 21,046 32,960 49,739 67,066 78,691 7.2%
TOP 10 SOURCE COUNTRIES VET PATHWAYS 2005 AND 2025 Top 10 Countries 2005 Hong Kong Indonesia China Malaysia India Singapore Sri Lanka Bangladesh Nepal Thailand Top 10 Countries 2025 China Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong India Nepal Bangladesh Sri Lanka Vietnam Thailand
TOP 10 SOURCE COUNTRIES VET PATHWAYS FORECAST NUMBERS OF PATHWAY STUDENTS IN 2025 Top 10 Countries 2025 China Indonesia Malaysia Hong Kong India Nepal Bangladesh Sri Lanka Vietnam Thailand Forecast number of students 20446 10340 7941 7620 7168 5932 3666 3385 1865 1678
Pathways from ELICOS Sector
PATHWAYS ACCESS RATIO % OF COMMENCING HIGHER EDUCATION FROM ELICOS SECTOR TOP 10 SOURCE COUNTRIES FOR 2005 Top 10 Countries 2005 China Thailand Korea Indonesia Japan Hong Kong Vietnam Taiwan Colombia Bangladesh Pathways Access Ratio 35% 50% 50% 15% 50% 10% 25% 25% 30% 10%
GLOBAL DEMAND FOR INERNATIONAL STUDENTS ON PATHWAYS TO HIGHER EDUCATION IN AUSTRALIA - ELICOS 60,000 56,007 50,000 44,516 40,000 30,000 29,112 20,000 10,000 11,439 18,501 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
REGIONAL DEMAND FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDENTS ON PATHWAYS TO HIGHER EDUCATION IN AUSTRALIA ELICOS SECTOR Region 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Growth (%) Asia 10,458 17,706 27,954 42,963 54,382 9.1% East Asia 7,246 12,536 20,361 33,008 42,224 9.7% South East Asia 2,692 4,052 5,629 7,534 9,172 6.7% South Asia 518 1,115 1,960 2,417 2,982 9.7% America 639 384 626 931 935 2.0% North 44 69 101 161 147 6.5% South 592 312 521 766 784 1.5% Europe 219 263 329 361 383 3.0% Africa 55 63 74 83 114 3.9% Middle East 68 82 124 173 188 5.5% Oceania 2 3 3 4 4 2.9% World 11,439 18,501 29,112 44,516 56,007 8.7%
TOP 10 SOURCE COUNTRIES ELICOS PATHWAYS 2005 AND 2025 Top 10 Countries 2005 China Thailand Korea Indonesia Japan Hong Kong Vietnam Taiwan Colombia Bangladesh Top 10 Countries 2025 China Thailand Indonesia Korea Vietnam Bangladesh Hong Kong Japan Taiwan India
TOP 10 SOURCE COUNTRIES ELICOS PATHWAYS FORECAST NUMBERS OF PATHWAY STUDENTS IN 2025 Top 10 Countries 2025 China Thailand Indonesia Korea Vietnam Bangladesh Hong Kong Japan Taiwan India Forecast number of students 37132 3277 3227 2147 1986 1436 1183 873 858 749
Global Forecasting Model for Pathways Strengths Important for all sectors of Australian international education Rigorous model Weaknesses Does not measure stand-alone students Lack of good data - few entry or exit surveys We need your support!
Key Issues in Understanding the Future of Pathways Why Pathways could become MORE prevalent Global Change drivers Students as Consumers, demanding flexibility Emergence of private education sectors Demand for lifelong learning New business models in education institutions A more competitive education market Emergence of associate degrees Universities raise academic and English entry standards Demand for a mixed vocational and theoretical education
Key Issues in Understanding the Future of Pathways Why Pathways could become LESS prevalent Universities become focussed on exit points as a strategy to deal with capacity and revenue generation issues, instead of entry points Increased provision of courses in Australia in languages other than English Academic standards in domestic education systems improve English language standards in source country improve Global competition in offering pathways could reduce Australia s competitiveness
Key Issues in Data Collection Surprising lack of data held by institutions Where data is available, lack of accessibility This lack of information is across all types of institutions Almost no data available for ELICOS Such information could be important marketing intelligence for all sectors How can marketing resources be used most efficiently? What are the key motivations of your consumers (students)?
Key Issues in Understanding the Future of Pathways How are Australian institutions positioned for the future for pathways? Understanding your pathways market involves understanding the global change drivers VET providers offering Degrees and Associate Degrees Higher education providers offering Associate Degrees Vertical integration of institutions Diversity, Quality and issues of Supply Collecting and analysing pathways information Knowing your students! Understanding the market better - a key marketing advantage!