Higher Education Employment Report First Quarter 2015 / Published May 2015 Executive Summary The number of jobs in higher education noticeably declined in 2015. This is in contrast to the past two years of relatively stable employment that was marked by fairly small increases and decreases. The 2015 decline was driven by only one month in the first quarter, according to data from federal statistical sources and analyzed by HigherEdJobs. Thus, the 2015 decline may or may not indicate a trend change from the past relatively steady two years. The "market share" of higher education jobs compared to all U.S. jobs continued to decline in 2015, due to increasing overall U.S. employment and decreasing higher education employment. Meanwhile, the number of advertisements for job postings in academia continued to increase in 2015, and at a faster pace from a year ago. But, indications persist that this may be a sign that institutions are simply adjusting their timeline for advertising open positions since the annual growth in postings has been steady for the past several years. Additionally, job postings for part-time faculty grew at a much faster pace than for full-time faculty. As of the first quarter of 2015, analyses of U.S. Department of Labor / Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on higher education employment as well as job posting trends with HigherEdJobs found: The number of jobs in higher education slipped during 2015, marking the first decline in over six years. The number of advertisements for job openings in higher education experienced increased growth in 2015, despite a slowdown in the actual number of jobs in higher education. The ratio of faculty to administrative and executive postings continued to decrease in 2015 and at a consistent rate of decline. Job postings for part-time faculty grew at a much faster rate than postings for full-time faculty during 2015. Meanwhile, postings for part-time administrative positions increased as well, but only slightly faster than for full-time administrative positions. The number of advertised job openings at community colleges continued to increase in 2015 at a faster rate than in previous years, while the actual number of jobs at community colleges continued to decline, but at a diminishing rate. While the number of job postings for part-time and full-time higher education positions both continued to rise, the ratio of part-time postings relative to full-time postings increased at a faster rate in 2015. The West region experienced the largest percentage increase in higher education job postings in 2015, driven by its Mountain region. John Ikenberry, Ph.D., President and Co-Founder HigherEdJobs 328 Innovation Boulevard, Suite 235 State College, PA 16803 media@higheredjobs.com 814-861-3080 (ext. 202) 2015 HIGHER EDUCATION EMPLOYMENT REPORT 1
About HigherEdJobs About this Report HigherEdJobs is the leading source for jobs and career information in academia. The company s web site, www.higheredjobs.com, receives more than 1,000,000 unique visitors a month. During 2014, more than 5,300 colleges and universities posted 159,000 faculty, administrative, and executive job postings to HigherEdJobs. Founded in 1996, HigherEdJobs mission is to help higher education candidates and employers connect with one another to find their dream job, or employee, as quickly as possible with the least amount of effort. HigherEdJobs is published by Internet Employment Linkage, Inc. (IEL). IEL is headquartered in State College, Pa., and has an accounting and operations office in Oak Park, Ill. The HigherEdJobs Higher Education Employment Report, published quarterly, provides summary information about employment within the higher education community. The goal of the report is to help academic leaders and policymakers better appreciate the trends we are experiencing with employment in real time. Those seeking jobs should also appreciate these same data. As background to some of the statistics we are reporting here, we define Higher Education Employment to include all types of employment at four-year colleges and universities as well as two-year community colleges. Findings on jobs in higher education and the U.S. economy are based on data from the U.S. Department of Labor / Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Except where indicated otherwise, findings on advertised job postings in higher education are based on posting data from U.S. colleges and universities that have been continually subscribed to the HigherEdJobs unlimited posting plan since January 2011, a cohort of roughly 890 institutions. Each of the institutions included in this report has paid a flat fee for unlimited advertising and, consequently, has no financial deterrent to discourage it from posting any job opening on HigherEdJobs. The Higher Education Employment Report is produced by HigherEdJobs with critical analysis and expertise provided by Bruce Steinberg (www.brucesteinberg.net), an independent employment researcher. 2015 HIGHER EDUCATION EMPLOYMENT REPORT 2
Finding: The number of jobs in higher education slipped during 2015, marking the first decline in over six years. Higher Education Jobs Compared to All U.S. Jobs (Monthly) Source: HigherEdJobs, based on U.S. Department of Labor / Bureau of Labor Statistics data, which are subject to revisions. (Note: Yellow markers are December data and presented for ease of year-over-year comparison.) After several consecutive first quarters of decelerating or weak growth in the number of higher education jobs, 2015 declined with a net loss of 0.5 percent, or about 8,600 jobs. However, most of the decline in 2015 appears to be driven by the 1.1 percent decline in January as the declines in February and March were both marginal (down 0.22 percent and down 0.15 percent, respectively). The "market share" of jobs in higher education, which is the ratio of higher education jobs compared to overall U.S. jobs, continued to wane in 2015. Although the number of higher education jobs declined, the major source of this trend is simply that the overall U.S. job market has continued to improve and grow at a faster pace than the higher education job market. So, higher education s share of total U.S. employment has ticked downward. Although the downward trend in higher education jobs is not driven solely by the trend with community college jobs as it has been in the past, Year-over-year percent change in: Higher education jobs Total overall non-farm jobs Higher education jobs as percent of all jobs Year Annual Annual 2015-0.47 2.29 1.29 2014 0.2 0.45 1.70 1.28 1.33 2013 0.2 0.84 1.57 1.30 1.35 2012 2.3 2.09 1.86 1.32 1.36 2011 2.4 2.65 0.99 1.31 1.35 2010 2.8 2.28-2.63 1.30 1.33 2009 2.7 3.19-3.65 1.25 1.27 Source: HigherEdJobs analysis of U.S. Department of Labor / Bureau of Labor Statistics data. they are still a significant contributor to the overall downward trend. A further analysis of BLS data shows that fouryear colleges and universities lost 5,900 jobs, or a 0.3 percent decline. The community college sector, at only 3.9 percent of the size of four-year institutions in terms of employment, lost 2,700 jobs, or 3.8 percent of its workforce, in 2015. (Community college employment trends discussed in further detail on page eight.) The federal government does not measure higher education employment or jobs per se. The term as used in this report is the combination of two NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) sectors: Junior Colleges (NAICS 611200), and Colleges and Universities (NAICS 611300). The data are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor. 2015 HIGHER EDUCATION EMPLOYMENT REPORT 3
Finding: The number of advertisements for job openings in higher education experienced increased growth in 2015, despite a slowdown in the actual number of jobs in higher education. HigherEdJobs' Postings Compared to All Higher Education Jobs Sources: HigherEdJobs posting data from continuing unlimited posting subscribers; higher education jobs based upon HigherEdJobs analysis of U.S. Department of Labor / Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The number of advertised job openings in academia grew 14.2 percent from 2014 to 2015, which was an accelerated rate from the 11.7 percent growth observed the prior year (from 2013 to 2014). On an annual basis, the growth rate from 2012 to 2014, inclusive, has been relatively stable, with the same rate of growth for 2012 and 2013 of 13.9 percent and only 0.6 percentage points lower in 2014 of 13.3 percent. These data are based on the total number of postings from colleges and universities continually subscribed to HigherEdJobs unlimited posting plan for four years or more (a cohort of roughly 890 institutions). As noted in the Q4 2014 Higher Education Employment Report, one possible reason why the quarterly postings trend varied so much from the relatively stable annual trend is that institutions may be shifting when they conduct their job searches over the course of the academic year. Year HigherEdJobs postings Annual Year-over-year change (in percent) HigherEdJobs postings Total Higher Education Jobs Annual Total Higher Education Jobs 2015 14.2-0.47 2014 13.3 11.7 0.2 0.45 2013 13.9 5.9 0.2 0.84 2012 13.9 20.7 2.3 2.09 Sources: HigherEdJobs posting data from continuing unlimited posting subscribers; Higher education jobs based on HigherEdJobs analysis of U.S. Department of Labor / Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The divergence of trends between job postings and higher education jobs could be a manifestation of institutions experiencing and addressing higher overall employee turnover. As discussed in previous reports, institutions may be losing an increasing number of employees either to retirement, other institutions, or for positions outside of academia. If so, that might help explain why job advertisements in higher education are up but employment is down. The blue bars (December data highlighted in yellow for ease of year-over-year comparisons) in the chart above signify monthly job openings posted to HigherEdJobs by U.S. colleges and universities that have continuously subscribed to the company s unlimited posting plan since Jan. 1, 2011 (roughly equating to the retail sector s reporting of annual changes of same-store sales ). 2015 HIGHER EDUCATION EMPLOYMENT REPORT 4
Finding: The ratio of faculty to administrative and executive postings continued to decrease in 2015 and at a consistent rate of decline. Faculty Job Postings compared to Administrative and Executive Job Postings Source: HigherEdJobs posting data from continuing unlimited posting subscribers. The ratio of faculty job postings to administrative and executive job postings continued to decline in 2015 and by a surprisingly consistent amount. From 2014 to 2015, the ratio of job postings for faculty positions decreased 1.0 percentage point, from 28.9 percent to 27.9 percent. This is a same change as the 1.0 percent decline from 2013 to 2014. The steady decline in the portion of job postings for first quarter faculty positions in the past few years may indicate a diminishing need to fill vacant faculty positions or to create new ones. Or, existing faculty may simply be staying in their current positions for longer periods. From 2011 to 2012, the ratio of faculty job postings declined 2.1 percent and the following year, from 2012 to 2013, it declined less at 1.3 percent. Although the ratio of job postings for faculty decreased in 2015, the actual number of faculty job postings increased 10.3 percent. This was higher than the 8.1 percent increase in 2014 as well as the 1.4 percent increase in 2013, but short of the 13.0 percent of faculty job posting growth of 2012. Year Faculty Positions Percent of job postings that were: Quarter One Administrative and Executive Positions 2015 27.9 72.1 Faculty Positions Annual Administrative and Executive Positions The same pattern, but with higher rates of growth, occurred for administrative and executive job postings. In 2015, the number of administrative and executive job postings rose 15.7 percent. This was higher than the 13.2 percent increase in 2014 as well as the 7.9 percent growth in 2013, but less than the 24.5 percent growth in the number of administrative and executive job postings experienced in 2012. 2014 28.9 71.1 29.0 71.0 2013 29.9 70.1 30.5 69.5 2012 31.2 68.8 31.3 68.7 2011 33.3 66.7 32.5 67.5 Source: HigherEdJobs posting data from continuing unlimited posting subscribers. Note: No distinction is made between tenure track and non-tenure track faculty positions. Administrative and executive positions cover a wide variety of jobs including academic VPs, provosts, deans, IT managers, network administrators, fundraisers, administrative assistants, counselors, comptrollers, etc. 2015 HIGHER EDUCATION EMPLOYMENT REPORT 5
Finding: While the number of job postings for part-time and full-time higher education positions both continued to rise, the ratio of part-time postings relative to full-time postings increased at a faster rate in 2015. Average Percentage of Part-Time Postings Source: HigherEdJobs posting data from continuing unlimited posting subscribers. The ratio of part-time to full-time job postings rose significantly in 2015, in sharp contrast to the fairly stable trend for the previous several years. In addition, the number of part-time job postings increased at an accelerated rate and was more than double the growth rate of job postings for full-time positions. The ratio of part-time to full-time job postings increased by 1.9 percentage points during 2015 compared to the same period the year before (from 13.8 percent to 15.7 percent). This was markedly higher than the ratio for the past several years, which had remained in a fairly narrow range by varying less than one percentage point from year to year. In 2012, as well as in 2013, there was only a 0.5 percentage point difference in this ratio from the previous year, albeit 0.5 percent higher in 2012 and 0.5 percent lower in 2013. But, in 2014, this metric began to rise, increasing by 0.9 percentage points to 13.8 percent. In addition, job postings for part-time positions increased by 28.1 percent in 2015, which was 2.3 times the rate of increase for full-time job postings that grew by 12.2 percent. One year earlier, in 2014, job postings for part-time positions increased by 18.0 percent, which was a little less than 1.7 times the rate of increase for full-time positions that grew by 10.9 percent. In contrast, in the first quarters of 2012 and 2013, job postings for part-time positions grew at a lesser rate than the increase of job postings for full-time positions. Average percentage of part-time postings 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 15.1 15.0 16.0 17.1 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 13.9 13.4 12.9 13.8 15.7 Change in number of part-time job postings (in percent) 2012 2013 2014 2015 16.7 2.7 18.0 28.1 Change in number of full-time job postings (in percent) 2012 2013 2014 2015 21.3 6.3 10.9 12.2 Source: HigherEdJobs posting data from continuing unlimited posting subscribers. 2015 HIGHER EDUCATION EMPLOYMENT REPORT 6
Finding: Job postings for part-time faculty grew at a much faster rate than postings for full-time faculty during 2015. Meanwhile, postings for parttime administrative positions increased as well, but only slightly faster than for full-time administrative positions. Portion of Job Postings that are Part-Time Source: HigherEdJobs posting data from continuing unlimited posting subscribers. The growth rate for part-time faculty positions in 2015 was much faster than in 2014 by roughly 2.6 times. In contrast, the growth rate for full-time faculty positions in 2015 was much slower than in 2014 with a growth rate that was less than one-half the previous year. For administrative job postings, the growth rate in 2015 for part-time position postings was slightly slower than the growth rate in 2014 while the growth rate for full-time administrative positions was slightly faster in 2015 than in 2014. Part-time faculty job postings rose in 2015 by 37.4 percent, substantially more than the 14.5 percent increase in 2014. At the same time, full-time faculty postings grew by only 2.7 percent in 2015, which was much less than the 6.5 percent they increased in 2014. In addition, the ratio of part-time to full-time faculty postings which had been increasing only slightly since at least 2012 increased by 5.3 percentage points Detail of Full-Time Compared to Part-Time Jobs Postings (in percent) Year Change in Full-Time Faculty Postings (Annual) Annual Change in Full-Time Faculty Postings Annual Change in Part-Time Faculty Postings Ratio of Faculty Postings for Part-Time 2015 2.7 37.4 27.2 2014 4.4 6.5 14.5 21.9 2013 6.6 0.3 5.6 20.6 2012 8.8 12.9 13.8 19.8 Year Change in Full-Time Administrative Postings (Annual) Annual Change in Full-Time Administrative Postings Annual Change in Part-Time Administrative Postings Ratio of Administrative Postings for Part-Time 2015 16.6 18.2 8.5 2014 15.4 12.7 21.5 8.4 2013 15.4 8.2-0.6 7.9 2012 16.5 25.6 21.0 8.5 Source: HigherEdJobs posting data from continuing unlimited posting subscribers. in 2015 to 27.2 percent from 21.9 percent in 2014. This is the largest change for this metric since at least 2012. In contrast, the number of job postings for part-time administrative positions increased 18.2 percent in 2015, a 3.3 percentage point decline from the 21.5 percent growth rate in 2014. Meanwhile, job postings for full-time administrative positions increased by16.6 percent in 2015, a 3.9 percentage point increase from the 12.7 percent growth the year before. 2015 HIGHER EDUCATION EMPLOYMENT REPORT 7
Finding: The number of advertised job openings at community colleges continued to increase in 2015 at a faster rate than in previous years, while the actual number of jobs at community colleges continued to decline, but at a diminishing rate. Job Postings and Employment at Community Colleges Sources: HigherEdJobs posting data from continuing unlimited posting subscribers; U.S. Department of Labor / Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of job postings for open positions at community colleges continued to increase in 2015 and at a higher rate of growth. Meanwhile, the number of jobs at community colleges continued to decrease compared to previous first quarters, but the rate of decline continued to lessen. Specifically, the year-over-year decline in the number of community college jobs in 2015 was the smallest first quarter decrease since the declining trend began in Q3 2011. Advertisements for job openings at community colleges increased 22.5 percent in 2015, a faster rate of growth than the 15.5 percent growth observed in 2014 as well as the 3.2 percent increase seen in 2013. Year Year-over-year change (in percent) Community College Job Postings (HigherEdJobs) Community College Jobs (BLS) 2015 22.5-3.8 2014 15.5-7.7 For the same period, the number of jobs at community colleges decreased 3.8 percent compared to the same period the year before (a 7.7 percent decline in 2014). Additionally, the 3.3 percent decline in the immediately preceding quarter (Q4 2014) and the 2.4 percent decline in the quarter before that (Q3 2014) were the smallest decreases since the declines began 15 quarters ago in Q3 2011. 2013 3.2-10.3 2012 33.4-15.7 Sources: HigherEdJobs posting data from continuing unlimited posting subscribers; community college jobs from Department of Labor / Bureau of Labor Statistics. As noted in previous reports, the diminishing declines in community college employment supports the notion that the number of jobs at community colleges could be stabilizing. Community college administrators may likely be focusing their recruiting resources on regular employee turnover and not trying to fundamentally adjust their staffing levels since job postings at community colleges continue to increase while the number of jobs at community colleges continues to decline. Note: Even though most two-year institutions now designate themselves as Community Colleges, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics still categorizes these institutions as Junior Colleges. To avoid confusion, Junior Colleges are referred to as Community Colleges in this finding. The red markers, and right-hand scale, indicate Community College jobs. 2015 HIGHER EDUCATION EMPLOYMENT REPORT 8
Finding: The West region experienced the largest percentage increase in higher education job postings in 2015, driven by its Mountain region. Change in Higher Education Job Postings by Census Region and Division 2014 to 2015 Source: HigherEdJobs job postings from unlimited posting subscribers in 2014 and 2015. During the first quarter of 2015, the West region increased 23.9 percent; a fairly large increase relative to the country s other regions. The region s growth was driven by its Mountain division, which experienced a 32.6 percent increase in job postings. Region percent change in 2015 Division percent change in 2015 WEST 23.9 Pacific 18.0 Mountain 32.6 MIDWEST 4.7 West North Central 4.6 Growth was somewhat homogenous within other areas of the country, albeit crossing official regional definitions. The entire eastern part of the country experienced growth between 6.6 and 14.2 percent; the south central areas saw growth of 15.3 and 16.2 percent; and the north central areas experienced growth of 4.6 and 4.7 percent. East North Central 4.7 SOUTH 13.5 West South Central 16.2 East South Central 15.3 South Atlantic 11.2 NORTHEAST 11.2 Middle Atlantic 14.2 New England 6.6 Nationally, this 2015 cohort, which includes Source: HigherEdJobs job postings from unlimited posting subscribers in 2014 and 2015. unlimited posting subscribers for the past 12 months, experienced a 13.6 percent rate of growth for all types of higher education job postings. Note: The regions and divisions used for this analysis are consistent with the official U.S. Census regions and divisions. (http://www2.census.gov/geo/pdfs/maps-data/maps/reference/us_regdiv.pdf) 2015 HIGHER EDUCATION EMPLOYMENT REPORT 9
Higher Education Employment Report First Quarter 2015 / Published May 2015 For more information, contact: John Ikenberry, Ph.D. President and Co-Founder HigherEdJobs 328 Innovation Boulevard, Suite 235 State College, PA 16803 media@higheredjobs.com 814-861-3080 (ext. 202) Published by