Daily Calls December 11, 2015

Transcription

1 Daily Calls December 11, 2015 Market Outlook Sensex Daily Candlestick Chart We said, "For positive options, the index should prevent fresh lows, close above the opening..." The index did prevent fresh lows and strengthening above the open, finished 216 points or 0.8% higher. The Sensex was powered by the RIL and HDFC twins. Oil & gas, metal, realty and IT sectors outperformed. Gains in the broader market resulted in a positive A/D ratio of 3:1. The action formed a Bull candle, as a result of the oversold technical position we pointed out. The Harami candle, ranged inside Wednesday's long Bear candle, will be considered indecisive until the action ends beyond Wednesday's high-low range of On the last day of the week, we may not rule out volatile and tricky action. Source: ASA, ICICIdirect.com Research Recommendations for the day Scrip IDi I-Direct tcode Action Target Stoploss NIFTY NIFTY Buy in the range / Voltas VOLTAS Buy above / REC RURELE Sell below / * All recommendations are for current month futures 1

2 Buy Nifty December Future in the range of Target: 7690/7710 Stop loss: 7635 Deal Team At Your Service Nifty Technical Picture (Spot) Nifty Intraday Short Term Trend Range Bound Range Bound Trend Reversal Support Resistance Days EMA days EMA 8105 Nifty Future Daily Candlestick Chart Nifty Future Recommendation CMP : Comment : Premium on NF decreased from 32 points to 27.Oversold condition results in a Bull candle, but watch follow-up above it. Reverse if fails to reach or sustain above 7725 Action : Buy in the range of Targets : 7690/7710 Stop-loss : Source: ASA, ICICIdirect.com Research 2

3 Gladiator Stock Recommendation Stocks Buy Voltas December Future above Target: / Stop loss: CMP : A bullish Engulfing candle at the trendline support indicates further upsides in coming session Comment : A bullish Engulfing candle at the trendline support and RSI taking support at its nine period's averagein the daily chart Action : Buy above Targets : / RSI holding onto its nine period s average in the daily chart thus validates positive trend in price Stop-loss : Sell REC December Future below Target: / Stop loss: CMP Stock in downtrend and has closed below its Aug 2015 lows signaling bearish bias in the coming session Comment : Stock is downtrend and closed below previous major low of Aug' 2015 and RSI in downtrend forming lower low Action : Sell below Targets : / Stop-loss : RSI in strong downtrend forming lower low in the daily chart Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research 3

4 Market Activity Global Currencies, Commoditiy & Bond Yields Spot Close Prev.close % Chg Rupee ( ) Dollar Index Euro British Pound Japanese Yen Australian ($) Swiss Franc Closing Yield (%) Previous Yield (%) India 10 year US 10 Year EURO 10 Year GBP 10 Year JPY 10 Year Close Prev. Close %Chg Gold/ounce Copper /ton Brent Crude/barrel Institutional Activity Cash Segment ( Cr) FII DII 10-Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec-15-1, ,069.0 Domestic Indices Global Indices Indices Close Change Change% S&P BSE Sensex CNX Nifty Nifty future S&PBSE S&PBSE Midcap S&PBSE Smallcap Nifty Heat Map Indices Close Change Change% Dow Jones Nasdaq FTSE DAX Hang Seng Nikkeii SGX Nifty * Asian Market as at 7:30am United 3, Tata HDFC 1,182.3 RIL Hindalco Spirits 42% 4.2% 38% 3.8% Steel 27% 2.7% 26% 2.6% Ltd 25% 2.5% Asian Bajaj 2, BPCL NTPC Tech M. 2.5% 2.3% Paints 2.3% Auto 2.3% 2.2% , Kotak Cipla GAIL Infosys NMDC 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% Bank 1.4% HDFC 1, Coal ONGC ITC Ultratech 2,813.2 Bank 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% India 1.1% 1.1% Vedanta 83.1 Tata , , ,384.6 ACC L&T TCS Ltd 1.0% power 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% Bharti Cairn Power IDEA IDFC Airtel 0.6% 0.6% India 0.5% Grid 0.5% 0.4% 4,498.1 Grasim 3,711.5 Ambuja Indusind HCL Maruti 0.4% Ind 0.3% Cement 0.3% Bank 0.2% Tech 0.2% Hero 2,548.4 Dr 2, Axis ICICI Wipro Moto 0.1% Reddy 0.0% 0.0% Bank -0.1% Bank -0.2% Sun Bank of HUL BHEL PNB Pharma -0.3% -0.5% Baroda -0.6% -0.8% -1.0% Tata Yes ,733.8 SBI Lupin M&M 1, % Motors -1.1% Bank -1.3% -1.5% -1.6% Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research 4

5 Trend Scanner Deal Team At Your Service Positive Trends Scrip Name Close % Change 10-day SMA Delivery (%) Asian Paints Ltd Biocon Ltd Kajaria Ceramics Ltd MindTree Ltd Entertainment Network India Ltd Negative Trends Scrip Name Close % Change 10-day SMA Delivery (%) SKF India Ltd Rural Electrification cat Corp Ltd Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Rallis India Ltd Candlestick Pattern Bullish Candlestick Formations Bearish Candlestick Formations Scrip Name Pattern name LTP Scrip Name Pattern name LTP Voltas Engulfing Union Bank of India Continuation MRPL Engulfing 63.4 REC Continuation BPCL Piercing Line Glenmark Continuation Mindtree Engulfing IRB Infra Continuation LIC Housing Finance Engulfing Kansai Nerolac Morning Star Overbought Stocks Oversold Stocks Scrip Name LTP Scrip Name LTP NA 0.0 Bank of Baroda Tata Chemical Rallis Market Breadth BSE NSE Stocks hitting 52 week high Stocks hitting 52 week low 29% 7% 64% 25% 7% 68% Scrip Name LTP Scrip Name LTP SCI 89.5 Adani ports Hikal Axis Bank Apollo Tyre REC Canara Bank Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research 5

6 Previous Deal Team Day s Performance At Your Service Scrip Product Strategyt Recommended d Price Targets SL Gain/Loss %* Comment Nifty Future Sell In range of / (20 Points) Stoploss triggered Strides Arcolab Future Buy above / Stoploss triggered Hindalco Future Sell below / No Trade Ultratech Cement Future Sell below / Target 1 Achieved * Return Opportunity Stock gain: Avg 0.23% per trade (Cum. Profits over last 166 days: %) Strike Rate for the day: 1/2 (Cum strike rate over 166 days: 223/368 Nifty Points gained for the day: -20 Points Gains over last 167 days: 922 points NOTE: The follow-up and performance review table of the strategies indicates the profit opportunity that was available in the strategies. Individual profits may vary, depending di upon the entry and exit price and stop losses Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research 6

7 Supports and Resistance Table ( Cash Levels) SCRIP CLOSE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND SENSEX ve NIFTY ve ACC ve ADANI ENTER ve ADANI PORT ve ADITYA BIRLA ve AJANTA PHARMA ve ALLAHABAD BANK ve AMARA RAJA BATT ve AMBUJA CEMENT Neutral AMTEK AUTO Neutral ANDHRA BANK ve APOLLO HOSP.ENT ve APOLLO TYRES ve ARVIND ve ASHOK LEYLAND ve ASIAN PAINTS ve AUROBINDO PHARMA ve AXIS BANK Neutral BAJAJ AUTO ve BAJAJ FINANCE ve BOI Neutral BATA INDIA ve BHARAT ELECTRON Neutral BHARAT FORGE ve BPCL ve BHARTI AIRTEL ve BHEL ve BRITANNIA IND ve CAIRNS INDIA ve CANARA BANK Neutral CASTROL INDIA ve CEAT ve CENTURY TEXT ve CESC Neutral Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research 7

8 Supports and Resistance Table ( Cash Levels) SCRIP CLOSE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND CIPLA ve COAL INDIA ve CROMPTON GREAVES ve DEWAN HOUSING F ve DISH TV ve DIVI'S LAB ve DLF ve DR.REDDY'S LAB ve EXIDE IND ve FEDERAL BANK Neutral GAIL ve GRASIM ve HAVELL'S INDIA ve HCL TECH Neutral HDFC BANK ve HDFC ve HERO MOTO Neutral HEXAWARE TECH ve HINDALCO ve HIND. UNILEVER ve HPCL ve IBULL HSG FIN ve IDBI ve IDEA CELLULAR ve INFRA DEV FINANC Neutral IND.FIN.CORP.OF Neutral INDUSIND BANK ve INDIA CEMENTS ve INDRAPRASTHA GAS ve IOC ve IB REAL ESTATE ve INFOSYS ve IRB INFRA ve ITC ve Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research 8

9 Supports and Resistance Table ( Cash Levels) SCRIP CLOSE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND JINDAL ST&POW ve JSW ENERGY ve JSW STEEL ve JUBILANT FOOD ve KAVERI SEEDS.COM ve KOTAK MAH.BANK ve L & T ve LIC HOUSING ve LUPIN ve M & M ve MARUTI SUZUKI ve MINDTREE ve M&M FIN.SERV ve MOTHERSON SUMI ve NMDC ve NTPC ve OIL INDIA ve ONGC ve OBC Neutral PAGE INDUSTRIES Neutral PETRONET LNG Neutral PIDILITE INDUSTRIES Neutral POWER FINANCE ve PTC INDIA ve PNB ve RCOM ve REL. CAPITAL ve RELIANCE INFRA ve RELIANCE ve RELIANCE POWER ve REC ve SAIL ve SHRIRAM TRANS ve SIEMENS ve Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research 9

10 Supports and Resistance Table ( Cash Levels) SCRIP CLOSE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND SKS MICRO FIN ve SOUTH INDIAN BANK ve S.R.F ve SBI ve SUN PHARMA ve SUN TV ve SYNDICATEBANK Neutral TATA COMM ve TATA CHEM Neutral TATA MOTOR DVR ve TATA MOTORS ve TATA POWER ve TATA GLOBAL BEV ve TCS ve TECH MAHINDRA ve TATA STEEL ve TITAN IND ve TVS MOTOR ve UCO BANK ve ULTRATECH CEMENT ve UBI ve UNITED PHOSPH ve VOLTAS ve WIPRO ve WOCKHARDT ve YES BANK ve ZEE ve Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research 10

11 Notes Please execute the recommendation within the levels provided in the report Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report Avoid entering into the recommendation in the first 5 minutes of trade If the recommendation opens near the target levels due to gap up/gap down opening, then the recommendation is considered not initiated The recommendations are valid only for the day and should be squared off by the end of the day Only stocks in derivatives segment have been considered for daily trading Medium to long-term prospects of a stock does not have any bearing on the daily view. Trading portfolio allocation It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation For example: The Daily Calls product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation 11

12 Recommended product wise trading portfolio allocation Product Allocations Product wise Max allocation in allocation 1 Stock Number of Calls Return Objective Frontline Stocks Mid Cap Stocks Duration Daily Calls 8% 2-3% 3-4 Stocks 0.5-1% 2-3% Intraday Short term Delivery 6% 3-5% 7-10 Per Months 4-5% 7-10% Opportunity Based Weekly Calls 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week Weekly Technicals 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week Monthly Call 15% 5% 2-3 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month Monthly Technical 15% 2-4% 5-8 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month Techno Funda 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 6 Months Technnical Breakout 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 3-6 Months Cash 10% - 100% 12

13 Candlesticks Glossary: Deal Team At Your Service Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period. Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and, therefore, are important for a chart reader. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More importance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend Morning Star: Potential bottom reversal pattern made of three candle lines. The first sizeable black candle reflects a market in which the bears are in complete charge. The next candle line--the small real body--shows a slight diminution of the bearish force. The white candle that makes up the last part of the morning star visually displays the bulls are gaining the upper hand. Lowest low amongst three candles becomes technical support Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern. This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend. The market falls, and a black candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the prior session s black body. Low of the pattern becomes short term support for prices Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on the next session s open but that session culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the prior black body. Lowest low between two candles is referred to as technical support for prices Hammer: A candlestick line which, during a downtrend, has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the session s range. There should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during declines and needs confirmation in terms of sustainability of prices above head of the Hammer in following session Evening Star: Potential Top reversal pattern made of three candle lines. Comparable with a traffic signal. First white candle reflects a market in bullish trend. The next candle line--the small real body warns waning momentum. The black candle that completes the evening star visually exhibits that prior up trend has stopped or reversed Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal. This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally. A black candle real body wraps around a white real body (classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance level for prices for future reference Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The second session s price opens over the prior session s high (or above the prior session s close). By the end of the second session, it closes near the low of the session and should fall well into the prior session s white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor chance of rising immediately Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the session's range and a very long upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead Continuation Patterns: Other than widely known Candlestick reversal patterns discussed above, there are numerous patterns mentioned in literature on Candlestick which describe the continuation of existing sentiments i.e. bullish or bearish. We have refrained from mentioning names of these patterns to avoid confusion. However, the remark Continuation Pattern refers to bullish or bearish candlestick patterns which h suggest continuation of existing trend 13

14 Pankaj Pandey Head Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai

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