Daily Calls December 18, 2015

Transcription

1 Daily Calls December 18, 2015 Market Outlook Sensex Daily Candlestick Chart We said, "Post Fed, the index can be positive if it strengthens above the Grey channel..." Initially reluctant, the index later strengthened above the Grey channel in the second half. It finished a hefty 309 points or 1.2% higher, powered by the RIL and HDFC twins. All sectors ended positive but metals shone as a sector. The A/D ratio strengthened to 5:1. The action formed a bigger, fourth consecutive Bull candle, which is a record since July. After breaking above the Grey channel, the index is now testing the gap-down area of December 4. Strength/close above the gap-down area is required for re-confirming the positive bias. Otherwise, expect some profit-booking. Watch if the White line, at , holds, or not. Source: ASA, ICICIdirect.com Research Recommendations for the day Scrip I-Direct Code Action Target Stoploss NIFTY NIFTY Sell in the range of / Bajaj Auto BAAUTO Buy in the range of / MindTree MINCON Buy above / Titan Company TITIND Sell below / * All recommendations are for current month futures 1

2 Sell Nifty December Future in the range of Target: 7830/7810 Stop loss: 7880 Deal Team At Your Service Nifty Technical Picture (Spot) Nifty Intraday Short Term Trend Range bound Range bound Trend Reversal Support Resistance Days EMA days EMA 8086 Nifty Future Daily Candlestick Chart Nifty Future Recommendation CMP : Comment : Premium on NF increased from 7 points to 12. NF breaks Grey channel, now testing gap-down area of 4th Dec.Reverse if holds the Blue support line at around 7780 Action : Sell in the range of Targets : 7830/7810 Stop-loss : 7880 Source: ASA, ICICIdirect.com Research 2

3 Gladiator Stock Recommendation Stocks Buy Bajaj Auto December Future in the range of Target: / Stop loss: CMP : Triangular breakout on daily charts signalling further upsides in coming sessions Comment : Triangular breakout on daily charts and RSI in rising trajectory Action : Buy in the range of Targets : / RSI in rising trajectory suggests positive trend in price Stop-loss : Buy MindTree December Future above Target: / Stop loss: CMP Short term range breakout indicates bullish bias in the coming session Comment : Short term range breakout and MACD in buy mode in daily Action : Buy above Targets : / Stop-loss : MACD in rising trajectory suggests upward momentum Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research 3

4 Gladiator Stock Recommendation Stocks Sell Titan Company December Future below Target: / Stop Loss: CMP Price reacting lower after facing resistance at higher band of channel indicates further downsides in coming sessions Comment : Price reacting lower after facing resistance at higher band of channel and drsii in sell mode Action : Sell below Targets : / RSI in downward trajectory thus validates negative trend in price Stop-loss : Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research 4

5 Market Activity Global Currencies, Commoditiy & Bond Yields Spot Close Prev.close % Chg Rupee ( ) Dollar Index Euro British Pound Japanese Yen Australian ($) Swiss Franc Domestic Indices Global Indices Indices Close Change Change% S&P BSE Sensex CNX Nifty Nifty future S&PBSE S&PBSE Midcap S&PBSE Smallcap Indices Close Change Change% Dow Jones Nasdaq FTSE DAX Hang Seng Nikkeii SGX Nifty * Asian Market as at 7:30am Nifty Heat Map Closing Yield (%) Previous Yield (%) India 10 year Tata Tata Vedanta 87.2 IDFC NMDC US 10 Year Steel 51% 5.1% power 44% 4.4% 41% 4.1% 39% 3.9% Ltd 37% 3.7% EURO 10 Year Yes Bajaj 2, ,009.7 Hindalco RIL M&M 1,247.6 GBP 10 Year % Bank 3.2% Auto 3.2% 3.2% 2.4% JPY 10 Year Sun Hero 2,655.0 Ambuja HDFC 1, ,897.9 Ultratech Pharma 2.3% Moto 2.3% Cement 2.0% Ltd 1.8% 1.8% Close Prev. Close %Chg Indusind HCL SBI NTPC PNB Gold/ounce Bank 1.7% 1.6% Tech 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% Copper /ton , Kotak HDFC 1, ,296.2 TCS Tech M. L&T Brent Crude/barrel % 1.3% Bank 1.3% Bank 1.2% 1.2% Asian , ,666.8 Power HUL Infosys Maruti Paints 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Grid 0.9% Institutional Activity Tata Bharti , Cash Segment ( Cr) FII DII Cipla ACC BHEL 0.7% Motors 0.7% Airtel 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 17-Dec Dr 3,018.0 ICICI Grasim 3, Dec ,024.0 ITC Wipro Reddy 0.4% Bank 0.4% 0.4% Ind 0.3% 0.2% 15-Dec Bank of United 2, Coal BPCL GAIL 14-Dec Baroda 0.1% 0.0% Spirits -0.1% -0.2% India -0.2% 11-Dec ,822.5 Axis Cairn Lupin ONGC IDEA -0.3% Bank -0.6% -0.8% -0.9% India -1.0% Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research 5

6 Trend Scanner Deal Team At Your Service Positive Trends Scrip Name Close % Change 10-day SMA Delivery (%) Dabur India Ltd Dewan Housing Finance Corp Ltd Indian Hotels Co Ltd Mphasis Ltd Petronet LNG Ltd Negative Trends Scrip Name Close % Change 10-day SMA Delivery (%) Idea Cellular Ltd Titan Industries Ltd SKF India Ltd Candlestick Pattern Bullish Candlestick Formations Bearish Candlestick Formations Scrip Name Pattern name LTP Scrip Name Pattern name LTP Reliance Industries Continuation Idea Cellular Dark Cloud Cover Asahi India Engulfing Bosch Continuation Strides Arcolab Engulfing Titan Continuation Indian Hotel Engulfing Tata Steel Continuation Arvind Continuation Overbought Stocks Oversold Stocks Scrip Name LTP Scrip Name LTP Infosys Dish TV 94.1 Maruti PNB Voltas Market Breadth BSE NSE Stocks hitting 52 week high Stocks hitting 52 week low 26% 7% 67% 17% 3% 80% Scrip Name LTP Scrip Name LTP Bajaj Finance Orissaamine Essar Oil SKF India ICIL Kajaria Ceramic Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research 6

7 Previous Deal Team Day s Performance At Your Service Scrip Product Strategyt Recommended d Price Targets SL Gain/Loss %* Comment Nifty Future Buy In range of / Points Target 2 achieved Voltas Future Buy above / No trade CESC Future Sell below / Stoploss triggered * Return Opportunity Stock gain: Avg -1.00% per trade (Cum. Profits over last 171 days: %) Strike Rate for the day: 0/1 (Cum strike rate over 171 days: 226/375 Nifty Points gained for the day: 60 Points Gains over last 172 days: 902 points NOTE: The follow-up and performance review table of the strategies indicates the profit opportunity that was available in the strategies. Individual profits may vary, depending di upon the entry and exit price and stop losses Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research 7

8 Supports and Resistance Table ( Cash Levels) SCRIP CLOSE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND SENSEX ve NIFTY ve ACC ve ADANI ENTER ve ADANI PORT ve ADITYA BIRLA ve AJANTA PHARMA ve ALLAHABAD BANK ve AMARA RAJA BATT ve AMBUJA CEMENT ve AMTEK AUTO ve ANDHRA BANK ve APOLLO HOSP.ENT ve APOLLO TYRES ve ARVIND ve ASHOK LEYLAND ve ASIAN PAINTS ve AUROBINDO PHARMA ve AXIS BANK ve BAJAJ AUTO ve BAJAJ FINANCE ve BOI ve BATA INDIA ve BHARAT ELECTRON ve BHARAT FORGE Neutral BPCL ve BHARTI AIRTEL ve BHEL ve BRITANNIA IND ve CAIRNS INDIA ve CANARA BANK ve CASTROL INDIA ve CEAT ve CENTURY TEXT ve CESC ve Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research 8

9 Supports and Resistance Table ( Cash Levels) SCRIP CLOSE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND CIPLA ve COAL INDIA ve CROMPTON GREAVES ve DEWAN HOUSING F ve DISH TV ve DIVI'S LAB ve DLF ve DR.REDDY'S LAB ve EXIDE IND ve FEDERAL BANK ve GAIL ve GRASIM ve HAVELL'S INDIA ve HCL TECH ve HDFC BANK ve HDFC ve HERO MOTO ve HEXAWARE TECH ve HINDALCO ve HIND. UNILEVER ve HPCL Neutral IBULL HSG FIN ve IDBI ve IDEA CELLULAR ve INFRA DEV FINANC ve IND.FIN.CORP.OF ve INDUSIND BANK ve INDIA CEMENTS ve INDRAPRASTHA GAS Neutral IOC ve IB REAL ESTATE ve INFOSYS ve IRB INFRA ve ITC ve Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research 9

10 Supports and Resistance Table ( Cash Levels) SCRIP CLOSE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND JINDAL ST&POW ve JSW ENERGY ve JSW STEEL ve JUBILANT FOOD ve KAVERI SEEDS.COM Neutral KOTAK MAH.BANK ve L & T ve LIC HOUSING ve LUPIN ve M & M ve MARUTI SUZUKI ve MINDTREE ve M&M FIN.SERV ve MOTHERSON SUMI ve NMDC ve NTPC ve OIL INDIA ve ONGC ve OBC ve PAGE INDUSTRIES Neutral PETRONET LNG ve PIDILITE INDUSTRIES Neutral POWER FINANCE ve PTC INDIA ve PNB ve RCOM ve REL. CAPITAL ve RELIANCE INFRA ve RELIANCE ve RELIANCE POWER ve REC ve SAIL ve SHRIRAM TRANS ve SIEMENS ve Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research 10

11 Supports and Resistance Table ( Cash Levels) SCRIP CLOSE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND SKS MICRO FIN ve SOUTH INDIAN BANK ve S.R.F ve SBI ve SUN PHARMA ve SUN TV ve SYNDICATEBANK ve TATA COMM ve TATA CHEM ve TATA MOTOR DVR ve TATA MOTORS ve TATA POWER ve TATA GLOBAL BEV ve TCS ve TECH MAHINDRA ve TATA STEEL ve TITAN IND ve TVS MOTOR ve UCO BANK ve ULTRATECH CEMENT ve UBI ve UNITED PHOSPH ve VOLTAS ve WIPRO ve WOCKHARDT ve YES BANK ve ZEE ve Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research 11

12 Notes Please execute the recommendation within the levels provided in the report Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report Avoid entering into the recommendation in the first 5 minutes of trade If the recommendation opens near the target levels due to gap up/gap down opening, then the recommendation is considered not initiated The recommendations are valid only for the day and should be squared off by the end of the day Only stocks in derivatives segment have been considered for daily trading Medium to long-term prospects of a stock does not have any bearing on the daily view. Trading portfolio allocation It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation For example: The Daily Calls product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation 12

13 Recommended product wise trading portfolio allocation Product Allocations Product wise Max allocation in allocation 1 Stock Number of Calls Return Objective Frontline Stocks Mid Cap Stocks Duration Daily Calls 8% 2-3% 3-4 Stocks 0.5-1% 2-3% Intraday Short term Delivery 6% 3-5% 7-10 Per Months 4-5% 7-10% Opportunity Based Weekly Calls 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week Weekly Technicals 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week Monthly Call 15% 5% 2-3 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month Monthly Technical 15% 2-4% 5-8 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month Techno Funda 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 6 Months Technnical Breakout 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 3-6 Months Cash 10% - 100% 13

14 Candlesticks Glossary: Deal Team At Your Service Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period. Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and, therefore, are important for a chart reader. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More importance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend Morning Star: Potential bottom reversal pattern made of three candle lines. The first sizeable black candle reflects a market in which the bears are in complete charge. The next candle line--the small real body--shows a slight diminution of the bearish force. The white candle that makes up the last part of the morning star visually displays the bulls are gaining the upper hand. Lowest low amongst three candles becomes technical support Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern. This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend. The market falls, and a black candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the prior session s black body. Low of the pattern becomes short term support for prices Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on the next session s open but that session culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the prior black body. Lowest low between two candles is referred to as technical support for prices Hammer: A candlestick line which, during a downtrend, has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the session s range. There should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during declines and needs confirmation in terms of sustainability of prices above head of the Hammer in following session Evening Star: Potential Top reversal pattern made of three candle lines. Comparable with a traffic signal. First white candle reflects a market in bullish trend. The next candle line--the small real body warns waning momentum. The black candle that completes the evening star visually exhibits that prior up trend has stopped or reversed Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal. This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally. A black candle real body wraps around a white real body (classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance level for prices for future reference Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The second session s price opens over the prior session s high (or above the prior session s close). By the end of the second session, it closes near the low of the session and should fall well into the prior session s white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor chance of rising immediately Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the session's range and a very long upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead Continuation Patterns: Other than widely known Candlestick reversal patterns discussed above, there are numerous patterns mentioned in literature on Candlestick which describe the continuation of existing sentiments i.e. bullish or bearish. We have refrained from mentioning names of these patterns to avoid confusion. However, the remark Continuation Pattern refers to bullish or bearish candlestick patterns which h suggest continuation of existing trend 14

15 Pankaj Pandey Head Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai

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