Daily Calls August 4, 2016

Transcription

1 Daily Calls August 4, 2016 Market Outlook Sensex Daily Candlestick Chart We said, "Weakness below (Monday's low) could open up the possibility of faster retracement of the six-day rally..." The index weakened below Monday and losing 284 points or 1%, stopped at the starting point of the preceding rally. All sectorss ended flat to negativee but Realty, ITC, capital goods, power and auto led the weakness. The A/D ratio worsened to 1:4. The action formed a sizable Bear candle on failure to hold Monday's low. Its low of came close to 27646, the starting point of the last rally but did not break it. Hence, avoiding faster retracement of the rally could stimulate bulls. Watch if bears allow them to sustain above the initial excitement on GST and form a Bull candle at the neckline. Source: ASA, ICICIdirect.com Research Recommendations for the day Scrip I-Direct IDirect Code Action Target Stoploss NIFTY NIFTY Sell in the range of / Cipla CIPLA Buy above / LIC Housing Finance LICHF Sell below / * All recommendations are for current month futures 1

2 Sell Nifty August Future in the range of Target: 8640/8620 Stop loss: 8695 Deal Team At Your Service Nifty Technical Picture (Spot) Nifty 50 Intraday Short Term Trend Range bound Up Trend Reversal 8450 Support Resistance Days EMA days EMA 7903 Nifty Future Daily Candlestick Chart Nifty Future Recommendation CMP : Comment : Future premium increased marginally from 37 points to 38.NF breaks Green line, now testing last support at 8566.Reverse if holds or Action : Sell in the range of Targets : 8640/8620 Stop-loss : 8695 Source: ASA, ICICIdirect.com Research 2

3 Gladiator Stock Recommendation Stocks Buy Cipla August Future above Target: / Stop loss: CMP : Bullish Engulfing candlestick at 38.2% retracement of recent upmove signaling further upsides in coming sessions Comment : Bullish Engulfing candlestick at 38.2% retracement t of recent upmove Action : Buy above Targets : / Stop-loss : RSI generated bullish crossover indicating upward momentum Sell LIC Housing Finance August Future below Target :487.00/ Stop loss: CMP Comment : Price close below 34 day EMA & trendline support breached Price close below 34 day EMA & trendline support breached indicating further downsides in coming sessions Action : Sell below Targets : / Stop-loss : RSI in sell mode indicates negative bias Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research 3

4 Market Activity Global Currencies, Commoditiy & Bond Yields Spot Close Prev.close % Chg Rupee ( ) Dollar Index Euro British Pound Japanese Yen Australian ($) Swiss Franc Closing Yield (%) Previous Yield (%) India 10 year US 10 Year EURO 10 Year GBP 10 Year JPY 10 Year Close Prev. Close %Chg Gold/ounce Copper /ton Brent Crude/barrel Institutional Activity Cash Segment ( Cr) FIIs (Cash) DIIs 3-Aug Aug Aug Jul Jul Domestic Indices Global Indices Indices Close Change Change% S&P BSE Sensex Nifty Nifty 50 future S&PBSE S&PBSE Midcap S&PBSE Smallcap Nifty Heat Map HCL Tech Cairn India Hindalco Indices Close Change Change% Dow Jones Nasdaq FTSE DAX Hang Seng Nikkeii SGX Nifty * Asian Market as at 7:30am Asian 1,143.4 Sun Coal Cipla 32% 3.2% 22% 2.2% Paints 18% 1.8% Pharma 13% 1.3% India 10% 1.0% Vedanta Yes 1,235.6 Bharti IDEA 0.7% 0.6% Ltd 0.6% Bank 0.6% Airtel 0.3% ,084.9 Axis ,668.8 HDFC 1,240.5 Infosys ACC 0.1% 0.1% Bank -0.1% -0.1% Bank -0.2% Ultratech 3, Grasim 4,968.4 Ambuja Wipro Tech M. -0.2% -0.3% -0.5% Ind -0.5% Cement -0.5% Kotak Bank PNB BPCL Tata SBI M&M 1,446.5 NMDC -0.5% -0.6% power -0.6% -0.8% -0.8% Hero 3, Tata GAIL ONGC -0.9% Moto -0.9% -1.0% Steel -1.1% -1.1% Bajaj 2,714.9 Indusind 1,178.4 HDFC 1,325.5 NTPC -1.1% -1.2% Auto -1.2% Bank -1.2% Ltd -1.2% Dr 2, , ICICI Bank of Lupin HUL Reddy -1.3% -1.3% Bank -1.3% -1.5% Baroda -1.5% TCS Maruti 2, ,478.6 Power L&T IDFC RIL -1.6% -1.6% Grid -1.7% -1.8% -1.9% 4,873.9 Tata United 2, ITC BHEL -2.3% Motors -3.0% Spirits -3.1% -3.1% -3.9% Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research 4

5 Trend Scanner Deal Team At Your Service Positive Trends Scrip Name Close % Change 10-day SMA Delivery (%) Cipla Ltd/India Gruh Finance Ltd JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd EID Parry India Ltd Hero Motocorp Ltd Negative Trends Scrip Name Close % Change 10-day SMA Delivery (%) Bata India Ltd Gateway Distriparks Ltd LIC Housing Finance Ltd United Spirits Ltd Market Breadth Candlestick Pattern Bullish Candlestick Formations Bearish Candlestick Formations Scrip Name Pattern name LTP Scrip Name Pattern name LTP Bajaj Electricals Engulfing Motherson Sumi Evening Star Cipla Engulfing Eros Media Engulfing Asian Paints Continuation Mindtree Engulfing Delta Corp Continuation Jubliant Food Evening Star Fortis Continuation Just Dial Continuation EID Parry Continuation BHEL Continuation Overbought Stocks Oversold Stocks Scrip Name LTP Stochastic ti Scrip Name LTP Stochastic ti Ajanta pharna GAIL Hindustan unilever Dr Reddy Motherson sumi Idea Havells Union bank BSE NSE Stocks hitting 52 week high Stocks hitting 52 week low 63% 5% 32% 71% 4% 25% Scrip Name LTP Scrip Name LTP Ajanta pharma NA 0.0 Carborandum EID Parry Hermotocorp Kansai Nerolac Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research 5

6 Previous Deal Team Day s Performance At Your Service Scrip Product Strategyt Recommended d Price Targets SL Gain/Loss %* Comment Nifty Future Sell In the range of / No trade ITC Future Buy In range of / No trade Hermotocorp Future Buy above / Stoploss Triggered KPIT Future Sell below / Target 1 achieved * Return Opportunity Nifty Points gained for the day: 0 Points Gains over last 83 trading days: 429 points Stocks return: Avg 0.40 per trade (Cum. Profits over last 84 trading days: 67.90%) Strike Rate for the day: 1/2 (Cum strike rate over 84 trading days: 91/169 NOTE: The follow-up and performance review table of the strategies indicates the profit opportunity that was available in the strategies. Individual profits may vary, depending di upon the entry and exit price and stop losses Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research 6

7 Supports and Resistance Table ( Cash Levels) SCRIP CLOSE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND SENSEX ve BANK NIFTY FUTURE ve NIFTY FUTURE ve BANK NIFTY ve NIFTY ve ACC ve ADANI ENTER ve ADANI PORT ve ADANI POWER ve ADITYA BIRLA ve AJANTA PHARMA Neutral ALLAHABAD BANK ve AMARA RAJA BATT ve AMBUJA CEMENT ve ANDHRA BANK ve APOLLO HOSP.ENT ve APOLLO TYRES ve ARVIND ve ASHOK LEYLAND ve ASIAN PAINTS ve AUROBINDO PHARMA ve AXIS BANK ve BAJAJ AUTO ve BAJAJ FINANCE ve BOB ve BOI ve BATA INDIA ve BEML ve BHARAT ELECTRON ve BHARAT FORGE ve BPCL ve BHARTI AIRTEL ve BHEL ve BHARTI INFRATEL Neutral Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research 7

8 Supports and Resistance Table ( Cash Levels) SCRIP CLOSE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND BIOCON ve BOSCH ve BRITANNIA IND ve CADILA HEALTHCARE Neutral CAIRNS INDIA ve CANARA BANK Neutral CASTROL INDIA ve CEAT ve CENTURY TEXT ve CESC ve CIPLA ve COAL INDIA ve COLGATE PALM ve CONTAINER CORP ve CROMPTON GREAVES ve CUMMINS INDIA ve DABUR INDIA ve DEWAN HOUSING F ve DISH TV ve DIVI'S LAB ve DLF ve DR.REDDY'S LAB ve EICHER MOTORS ve ENGINEERS INDIA ve EXIDE IND ve FEDERAL BANK ve GAIL ve GLENMARK PHARMA ve GODREJ CONSUMER ve GODREJ IND ve GRANULES INDIA ve GRASIM ve Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research 8

9 Supports and Resistance Table ( Cash Levels) SCRIP CLOSE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND HAVELL'S INDIA ve HCL TECH ve HDFC BANK ve HDFC ve HERO MOTO ve HEXAWARE TECH ve HINDALCO ve HIND. UNILEVER ve HPCL ve HINDUSTAN ZINC ve HDIL ve IBULL HSG FIN ve IDBI ve IDEA CELLULAR ve IDFC ve IFCI Neutral INDUSIND BANK ve INDIA CEMENTS ve INDO COUNT IND Neutral INDRAPRASTHA GAS ve IOC ve IB REAL ESTATE ve INFOSYS ve IRB INFRA ve ITC ve JAIN IRRIGATION ve JET AIRWAYS ve JINDAL ST&POW ve JSW ENERGY ve JSW STEEL ve JUBILANT FOOD ve JUSTDIAL ve KARNATAKA BANK ve KAVERI SEEDS.COM Neutral Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research 9

10 Supports and Resistance Table ( Cash Levels) SCRIP CLOSE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND KOTAK MAH.BANK ve KPIT TECH ve L & T ve LIC HOUSING ve L&T FINANCE ve LUPIN ve M & M ve MARICO ve MARUTI SUZUKI ve MCLEOD RUSSEL ve MINDTREE ve M&M FIN.SERV ve MOTHERSON SUMI ve MRF ve N C C ve NHPC ve NIIT TECHNOLOGIES ve NMDC ve NTPC ve OIL INDIA ve ONGC ve OBC ve PAGE INDUSTRIES ve PC JEWELLER ve PETRONET LNG ve PIDILITE INDUSTRIES ve POWER FINANCE ve POWER GRID ve PTC INDIA ve PNB ve RCOM ve REL. CAPITAL ve Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research 10

11 Supports and Resistance Table ( Cash Levels) SCRIP CLOSE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND RELIANCE INFRA ve RELIANCE ve RELIANCE POWER ve REC ve SAIL Neutral SHRIRAM TRANS ve SIEMENS ve SINTEX IND ve SOUTH INDIAN BANK ve S.R.F ve SBI ve STRIDES SHASUN ve SUN PHARMA ve SUN TV ve SYNDICATE BANK ve TATA COMM ve TATA CHEM ve TATA ELXSI Neutral TATA MOTOR DVR ve TATA MOTORS ve TATA POWER ve TATA GLOBAL BEV ve TCS ve TECH MAHINDRA ve TATA STEEL ve TITAN IND ve TORRENT PHARMA ve TV18 BROADCAST ve TVS MOTOR ve UCO BANK ve ULTRATECH CEMENT ve UNITED BREW ve Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research 11

12 Supports and Resistance Table ( Cash Levels) SCRIP CLOSE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND UNITED PHOSPH ve UNITED SPIRITS ve VEDANTA Neutral VOLTAS ve WIPRO ve WOCKHARDT ve YES BANK Neutral ZEE ve Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research 12

13 Notes Please execute the recommendation within the levels provided in the report Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report Avoid entering into the recommendation in the first 5 minutes of trade If the recommendation opens near the target levels due to gap up/gap down opening, then the recommendation is considered not initiated The recommendations are valid only for the day and should be squared off by the end of the day Only stocks in derivatives segment have been considered for daily trading Medium to long-term prospects of a stock does not have any bearing on the daily view. Trading portfolio allocation It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation For example: The Daily Calls product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation 13

14 Recommended product wise trading portfolio allocation Product Allocations Product wise Max allocation in allocation 1 Stock Number of Calls Return Objective Frontline Stocks Mid Cap Stocks Duration Daily Calls 8% 2-3% 3-4 Stocks 0.5-1% 2-3% Intraday Stocks on the Move 6% 3-5% 7-10 Per Months 7-10% 10-15% 3 Months Weekly Calls 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week Weekly Technicals 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week Monthly Call 15% 5% 2-3 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month Monthly Technical 15% 2-4% 5-8 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month Techno Funda 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 6 Months Gladiator Stocks 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 15% and above 20% and above 6 Months Cash 10% - 100% 14

15 Candlesticks Glossary: Deal Team At Your Service Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period. Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and, therefore, are important for a chart reader. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More importance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend Morning Star: Potential bottom reversal pattern made of three candle lines. The first sizeable black candle reflects a market in which the bears are in complete charge. The next candle line--the small real body--shows a slight diminution of the bearish force. The white candle that makes up the last part of the morning star visually displays the bulls are gaining the upper hand. Lowest low amongst three candles becomes technical support Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern. This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend. The market falls, and a black candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the prior session s black body. Low of the pattern becomes short term support for prices Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on the next session s open but that session culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the prior black body. Lowest low between two candles is referred to as technical support for prices Hammer: A candlestick line which, during a downtrend, has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the session s range. There should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during declines and needs confirmation in terms of sustainability of prices above head of the Hammer in following session Evening Star: Potential Top reversal pattern made of three candle lines. Comparable with a traffic signal. First white candle reflects a market in bullish trend. The next candle line--the small real body warns waning momentum. The black candle that completes the evening star visually exhibits that prior up trend has stopped or reversed Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal. This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally. A black candle real body wraps around a white real body (classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance level for prices for future reference Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The second session s price opens over the prior session s high (or above the prior session s close). By the end of the second session, it closes near the low of the session and should fall well into the prior session s white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor chance of rising immediately Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the session's range and a very long upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead Continuation Patterns: Other than widely known Candlestick reversal patterns discussed above, there are numerous patterns mentioned in literature on Candlestick which describe the continuation of existing sentiments i.e. bullish or bearish. We have refrained from mentioning names of these patterns to avoid confusion. However, the remark Continuation Pattern refers to bullish or bearish candlestick patterns which h suggest continuation of existing trend 15

16 Pankaj Pandey Head Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai

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