Next Generation Agricultural Systems Models and Knowledge Products Scoping Study: Synthesis. J. Antle and the NextGen Study Authors

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Next Generation Agricultural Systems Models and Knowledge Products Scoping Study: Synthesis. J. Antle and the NextGen Study Authors"

Lillian Geraldine Collins
10 years ago
Views:

1 Next Generation Agricultural Systems Models and Knowledge Products Scoping Study: Synthesis J. Antle and the NextGen Study Authors AgMIP 5th Annual Meeting University of Florida February

2 Background Papers 1. Next Generation Agricultural Systems Models, Data and Knowledge Products: State of Agricultural Systems Science Authors: J. W. Jones, John Antle, Bruno Basso, Ken Boote, Richard Conant, Ian Foster, Charles Godfray, Mario Herrero, Richard Howitt, Sander Jansen, Brian Keating, Rafa Munoz-Carpena, Cheryl Porter, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Tim Wheeler 2. Towards a New Generation of Agricultural Systems Models, Data and Knowledge Products: Model Design, Improvement and Implementation Authors: J. Antle, B. Basso, R. Connant, C. Godfray, J. Jones, M. Herrero, R. Howitt, B. Keating, Rafael Munoz-Carpena, C. Rosenzweig, P. Tittonell, T. Wheeler 3. Next Generation Agricultural Systems Models, Data and Knowledge Products: Building an Open Web-Based Approach to Agricultural Data, System Modeling and Decision Support Authors: S. Janssen, C.H. Porter, A. Moore, I.N. Athanasiadis, I. Foster, J.W. Jones, J. Antle 2

Rosenzweig, Tim Wheeler 2. Towards a New Generation of Agricultural Systems Models, Data and Knowledge Products: Model Design, Improvement and Implementation Authors: J. Antle, B. Basso, R.

3 Approach: Use Cases Use Cases Developing and Investing in agricultural Supplying food products evaluating technologies development projects Management support for Farm extension in Africa that meet corporate for sustainable that support sustainable precision agriculture. sustainability goals. intensification. intensification. Farming System small-holder small-holder small-holder commercial crop commercial crop Information User Farm adviser Agricultural research team/program Analyst/adviser Management consultant Corporate analyst Beneficiaries Farm family Research institution/farm population NGO & clients Farm business Agri-business firm Outcomes Improved livelihood (income, nutrition, food security) Improved technology Sustainable technology Income, soil conservation & water quality Profit, risk management, sustainbility objectives 3

4 Insights from Use Cases and Papers A future vision: a computational agricultural science to accelerate innovation example: drought-tolerant maize Need for model improvement models lack capabilities to address some of the key biophysical factors, management options, and socioeconomic and environmental conditions, at farm and landscape scales Models have been developed mostly along disciplinary lines need modular, open-source, inter-operable models and data Many of the major advances in data and information and communication technology of the past decade have not yet been fully exploited by available agricultural decision tools A key innovation: link the new generation of models to a suite of knowledge products mobile technology apps personal computer-based dashboards online analytical and communication tools 4

lines need modular, open-source, inter-operable models and data Many of the major advances in data and information and communication technology of the past decade have not yet been fully exploited by

5 Insights from Use Cases and Papers Decision makers need credible, easily accessed information from models, but don t need to access the models themselves System Features Farm Extension Improved Systems Use Cases Investment in Sustainable Intensification Precision Ag Sustainable Value Chains - single production activity?? x x - multiple production activities x x - interacting activities??? - whole farm x x x?? Data (spatially referenced) - single activity? x - individual farm x x - representative sample x x x Outputs - bio-physical production (yield) x x x x x - economic (profit, income) x x x x x - environmental x x x x - social x x x Output Access - model? - mobile app x x - computer dashboard? x x x Spatial Scale - field x x - farm x x - region (many farms) x x x Temporal Scale - within-season x? x - season x x x x x - multiple seasons x x x 5

?? - whole farm x x x?? Data (spatially referenced) - single activity?

6 Insights from the Stakeholder Convening There was broad agreement on the need for a new generation of knowledge products that would exploit recent advances in data, ICT, analytics, and data visualization. Needed advances: enhance the credibility and relevance of agricultural systems models evaluate models in a transparent process so that they will be accepted as part of the evidence base useful for making decisions and policies. expand the pre-competitive space for agricultural systems science to enable new knowledge products e.g., through new funding mechanisms and changes in awareness among scientific leaders and institutional incentives. data that are well documented, reliable, and accessible for use by NextGen developers a strategy and engagement process to mobilize the user community and to create the space for knowledge product development through private-public partnerships. a plan to build on the momentum from this project and related initiatives, to develop a focused, near-term strategy to demonstrate the value of potential advances. 6

Needed advances: enhance the credibility and relevance of agricultural systems models evaluate models in a transparent process so that they will be accepted as part of the evidence base useful for

7 Towards Implementation Facilitate two closely-linked communities: Knowledge Product Community Science and Data Integration Community Create a NextGen pilot program that focuses on smallholder farming systems in Sub- Saharan Africa at farm and landscape scales. Develop knowledge products, and the improved model components and ICT platform needed to support them, for two of the Uses Cases developed in the scoping study Farm Extension in Africa (farm scale) Investment in Agricultural Development to Support Sustainable Intensification (landscape scale). Must produce useable apps! 7

Develop knowledge products, and the improved model components and ICT platform needed to support them, for two of the Uses Cases developed in the

8 Towards Implementation 8

9 Towards Implementation: pre-competitive and competitive spaces 9

Research to improve the use and conservation of agricultural biodiversity for smallholder farmers

Research to improve the use and conservation of agricultural biodiversity for smallholder farmers Agricultural biodiversity the variability of crops and their wild relatives, trees, animals, arthropods,