Aon Benfield. Insurance Risk Study. Growth, profitability, and opportunity. Ninth edition Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

Transcription

1 Aon Benfield Insurance Risk Study Growth, profitability, and opportunity Ninth edition 2014 Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

2 Table of Contents Introduction...3 Global Premium, Profitability, and Opportunity...5 Global P&C Gross Written Premium and Growth Rates by Product Line.. 6 Growth Markets and Over / Under Performers....8 Looking Ahead: Growth Projections...10 Uncovering Growth Opportunities...15 Country Opportunity Index Insurance Trends: Risks and Opportunities...17 Auto Trends U.S. Health Insurance Market U.S. Cyber Insurance Market China Crop Insurance Global Risk Parameters...22 U.S. Risk Parameters...24 U.S. Profitability...25 U.S. Reserve Adequacy...26 Global Correlation Between Lines...28 Big Data and Insurance...30 Sources and Notes...33 Contacts...35

3 Introduction The 2014 Insurance Risk Study is focused on uncovering profitable growth opportunities in the insurance market. There are many bright spots within today s rapidly evolving insurance marketplace. Globally, property casualty business produced an underwriting profit in 2013 with a combined ratio of 99.1 percent. In 21 of the top 50 markets combined ratios were below 95 percent, and in ten the combined ratios were below 90 percent. Furthermore, 16 countries showed five year premium growth in excess of 10 percent, led by very strong growth in China. The first section of the Study presents the country and line of business detail to identify these opportunities and discusses how to move from coarse statistics to targeted growth strategies. The second section provides an update of our global risk parameters. Premium, capital, and profitability highlights At year end 2013, global premium stands at an all-time high of USD4.9 trillion, an increase of 0.9 percent over the prior year. Property casualty premium increased 3.5 percent, and life premiums shrunk by 2.0 percent while health premiums grew 4.5 percent. Global insurance premium and capital, USD trillions Premium Capital Property & Casualty Life & Health Reinsurance Total Global capital increased 3.9 percent year on year to USD4.0 trillion. Property casualty insurance capital increased 7.1 percent. And reinsurance capital is at an all-time high, as we discuss at greater length in Aon Benfield s Reinsurance Market Outlook. Property casualty penetration is 1.9 percent of GDP, marginally down from 2.0 percent last year based on the top 50 countries. Auto insurance accounts for 46 percent of property casualty premium, while property accounts for 33 percent and liability for 21 percent. Catastrophe losses have been a driver of the growth in property premiums in many parts of the world. Impact Forecasting, Aon Benfield s catastrophe model development center, estimates that during 2013 insured catastrophe losses totaled USD45 billion. In perspective, catastrophe losses translated into 3.2 percent of property casualty premium and a global catastrophe load of 9.9 percent of property premium. The combined ratio for property casualty business in the top 50 countries in 2013 was under 99.1 percent compared to percent last year. The global average is helped by European countries, with an average combined ratio of 96.7 percent, compared to percent in the Americas and percent in Asia Pacific. The five year average combined ratio continued under 100 percent too, at 99.8 percent. The overall global combined ratio under 100 percent, and the variation in results by country, clearly show there are many desirable areas for profitable growth in the market today. Where does the insurance market go from here? We project that global premium will grow by 18 percent over the next five years, reaching a total of USD 1.6 trillion by Auto will continue to be the largest line, driven in part by strong growth in China. Detailed projections by line and country are shown on pages 10 to 14. Aon Benfield 3

4 Growth and Big Data The Insurance Risk Study is now in its ninth edition, and there have been many changes in the industry since we began research for the first edition in After seven major (category 3+) U.S. hurricane landfalls from 2004 to 2005 there have been no major hurricane landfalls in the last eight years. Adverse loss development has turned into a long stream of favorable development. Premium growth and the locus of catastrophe losses has shifted to the East. Today the emphasis is on making efficient use of cheaper alternative capital and on growth in the face of an often sluggish economic environment challenging themes that recent editions of the Study have addressed with increasing detail. The market continues to embrace and adopt Big Data concepts in pricing and underwriting a subject we explore on pages 30 to 32. Big data for insurance often really means Behavioral Data, with the industry engaging in an active search for more detailed and more predictive variables to add to underwriting and pricing algorithms. Aon Benfield, and Aon more broadly, are spearheading several initiatives to help bring more predictive variables and analytic insight to clients, in areas including health and crop insurance. The growth imperative continues to stress many industries, particularly in mature markets. For insurers, the efficiency gains from Big Data often serve to redistribute risks, but not to grow the pie creating clear winners and losers. The first part of the Study now covers detailed global information about insurance capital, premium, and profitability. We continue to be the only comprehensive view of combined ratio by country available in the public domain, to the best of our knowledge. We also offer some ideas for how to grow the pie. The Study includes global growth projections for insurance and reinsurance as well as sections on health, auto, crop, and cyber insurance. Using the study Insurance risk remains core to the Study and pages 22 to 30 contain our comprehensive view of risk by line and geography using the techniques we have been applying consistently since The Insurance Risk Study continues to be the industry s leading set of risk parameters for modeling and benchmarking underwriting risk and global profitability. Beyond risk modeling, we can also provide our clients with very granular, customized market intelligence to create business plans that are realistic, fact-based, and achievable. With a global fact base and broad access to local market practitioners, we are equipped to provide insight across a spectrum of lines, products, and geographies. Inpoint, the consulting division of Aon Benfield, helps insurers and reinsurers address these challenges, from sizing market opportunities to identifying distribution channel dynamics, assessing competitor behavior, and understanding what it takes to compete and win. Our approach leverages Aon Benfield s USD130 million annual investment in analytics, data, and modeling to help our clients grow profitably. All of our work at Aon Benfield is motivated by client questions. We continue to be grateful to clients who have invited us to share in the task of helping them analyze their most complex business problems. Dynamic and interactive working groups always lead to innovative, and often unexpected, solutions. If you have questions or suggestions for items we could explore in future editions, please contact us through your local Aon Benfield broker or one of the contacts listed on the back page. 4 Insurance Risk Study

5 Global Premium, Profitability, and Opportunity An abundance of capital is providing new lower cost alternatives to traditional equity risk financing, opening new avenues for growth. After many years of catastrophe risk management, often implemented as exposure reductions, clients are now looking more aggressively at growth opportunities to leverage this new cheaper capacity. To help guide growth decisions, Aon Benfield has worked through a mass of market data from many different sources to produce the consistent, country-level profitability statistics we introduce in this section. Our strategic decision framework identifies accessible markets and high-potential customer segments to formulate growth programs tailored to an insurer s capabilities and risk appetite. Working with our broker network and our investment bank, Aon Benfield Securities, we can develop and help execute growth plans through organic growth, acquisition, reinsurance, and joint ventures, singly or in combination. Part of our job is to make connections and draw comparisons that others do not see. In that spirit, we begin this section with the map below, which overlays country names on states with approximately equivalent premium volumes. California is the largest U.S. state in terms of premium, and if it were independent it would follow the U.K. as the seventh largest insurance market in the world. Texas, Florida, and New York would also sit among the top 10 as independent countries, having roughly the same premium as Canada, Italy, and Australia respectively. This section presents our unique, detailed analysis of global capital, premium, and profitability, as well as snapshots of trends and emerging risks that we expect to create both risk and opportunity in the coming years. Global P&C premium compared to U.S. state premium Morocco Pacific Region = China Austria Thailand Romania U.K. Mountain Region = Australia Taiwan Singapore Ireland Denmark Romania Luxembourg India Saudi Arabia Greece Singapore West South Central Region = U.K. West North Central Region = Canada Portugal Thailand Canada Poland South Africa Thailand Austria Colombia Mexico East North Central Region = Germany India Brazil Russia Switzerland Austria Venezuela South Africa Malaysia Poland East South Central Region = Spain Switzerland Mid-Atlantic Region = China Greece Argentina Netherlands Italy Sweden Brazil Australia Russia Nigeria Romania New England Region = Spain Morocco South Africa Morocco South Atlantic Region = Japan Romania Israel Turkey Aon Benfield 5

6 Global P&C gross written premium and growth rates by product line Premium by product line Five-year average annual growth rate Motor: USD 633 billion U.S., 34% Brazil Canada Rest of Americas China, 10% Motor: 3.6% annual growth Middle East & Africa Rest of Europe U.S., 44% Rest of Euro Area Property: USD 453 billion Brazil U.K. Japan South Korea Rest of APAC France, 4% Germany Canada Rest of Americas China, 3% Japan South Korea Rest of APAC U.S. Brazil Property: 4.0% annual growth Canada Rest of Americas China Japan South Korea Rest of APAC France Germany U.K. Rest of Euro Area Rest of Europe Middle East & Africa France, 6% 15 Middle East & Africa Rest of Europe U.K. Germany Rest of Euro Area Liability: USD 296 billion U.S., 45% Brazil Canada Rest of Americas China, 2% Japan South Korea Rest of APAC France, 6% -10 U.S. Brazil Liability: 1.6% annual growth Canada Rest of Americas China Japan South Korea Rest of APAC France Germany U.K. Rest of Euro Area Rest of Europe Middle East & Africa Germany 10 Middle East & Africa Rest of Europe U.K. Rest of Euro Area Notes: All statistics are the latest available. Motor includes all motor insurance coverages. Property includes construction, engineering, marine, aviation, and transit insurance as well as property. Liability includes general liability, workers compensation, surety, bonds, credit, and miscellaneous coverages. -10 U.S. Brazil Canada Rest of Americas China Japan South Korea Rest of APAC France Germany U.K. Rest of Euro Area Rest of Europe Middle East & Africa 6 Insurance Risk Study

7 Top 50 P&C markets ranked by gross written premium by region P&C GWP (USD M) Premium/ GDP Ratio Annualized Premium Growth Cumulative Net Loss Ratio Cumulative Net Expense Ratio Cumulative Net Combined Ratio 1yr 3yr 5yr 1yr 3yr 5yr 1yr 3yr 5yr 1yr 3yr 5yr Americas U.S. 531, % 5.6% 5.3% 2.5% 74.8% 75.6% 74.8% 27.3% 27.2% 27.0% 102.1% 102.9% 101.9% Canada 42, % 0.8% 7.0% 4.6% 65.3% 69.6% 70.3% 29.0% 28.7% 28.6% 94.3% 98.3% 99.0% Brazil 23, % -3.1% 3.2% 5.9% 53.0% 53.6% 55.3% 35.3% 34.4% 30.4% 88.3% 88.1% 85.7% Argentina 11, % 13.8% 19.9% 16.9% 71.2% 68.4% 67.5% 36.4% 37.3% 37.3% 107.6% 105.7% 104.8% Mexico 10, % 11.9% 10.7% 6.2% 61.7% 64.0% 65.9% 30.4% 30.2% 31.0% 92.2% 94.2% 96.9% Venezuela 6, % 27.2% 1.6% 12.2% 58.8% 61.5% 63.7% 37.7% 35.2% 33.1% 96.5% 96.7% 96.9% Colombia 4, % 0.5% 11.2% 11.2% 63.5% 61.4% 61.4% 48.7% 48.0% 47.6% 112.2% 109.4% 108.9% Chile 3, % -0.3% 11.8% 10.2% 50.4% 51.4% 51.6% 45.0% 43.0% 44.0% 95.4% 94.4% 95.6% Ecuador 1, % 16.5% 16.3% 14.0% 53.0% 52.3% 53.2% 35.8% 34.3% 33.7% 88.8% 86.6% 86.9% Subtotal 636, % 5.3% 5.6% 3.1% 72.7% 73.8% 73.4% 28.3% 28.2% 27.7% 101.0% 101.9% 101.1% Europe, Middle East & Africa Germany 71, % 3.1% 2.3% 0.5% 73.3% 74.6% 73.9% 25.3% 25.7% 25.2% 98.6% 100.3% 99.0% U.K. 65, % 1.3% 3.5% -3.0% 65.2% 67.1% 66.9% 34.3% 33.9% 34.3% 99.5% 101.0% 101.2% France 66, % -6.5% -1.8% -0.3% 73.5% 74.5% 74.3% 24.2% 24.5% 24.6% 97.7% 99.0% 98.9% Italy 37, % -2.4% -2.2% -4.2% 71.5% 74.2% 75.2% 23.7% 23.6% 23.6% 95.2% 97.7% 98.8% Spain 28, % 0.0% -1.7% -4.9% 71.2% 71.6% 71.5% 21.4% 21.0% 21.1% 92.6% 92.6% 92.5% Russia 19, % 8.2% 14.7% 5.9% 63.0% 64.7% 65.8% 28.6% 24.5% 22.9% 91.6% 89.3% 88.7% Netherlands 13, % -7.9% -3.5% -1.0% 88.8% 88.6% 88.0% 12.0% 12.7% 13.0% 100.9% 101.3% 101.0% Switzerland 14, % 2.4% 5.3% 5.1% 68.6% 70.0% 70.9% 26.6% 26.1% 26.2% 95.2% 96.1% 97.1% Belgium 10, % -4.2% 0.9% 1.7% 67.2% 70.1% 71.3% 28.1% 28.0% 27.7% 95.2% 98.1% 99.0% Norway 9, % 9.5% 7.9% 5.7% 71.4% 73.5% 73.8% 14.2% 15.1% 15.7% 85.7% 88.7% 89.6% Austria 9, % 5.9% 3.3% 0.4% 70.2% 70.8% 70.6% 28.3% 28.7% 28.5% 98.5% 99.5% 99.0% Sweden 7, % -1.3% 5.2% 0.8% 74.1% 73.9% 73.4% 18.4% 17.7% 17.8% 92.4% 91.6% 91.1% Denmark 8, % 2.7% 1.8% -0.1% 71.4% 76.3% 76.2% 17.2% 17.2% 17.3% 88.6% 93.5% 93.5% Turkey 7, % 14.2% 13.0% 5.3% 79.0% 77.7% 78.2% 26.7% 27.8% 26.9% 105.7% 105.5% 105.1% Poland 7, % 3.5% 3.4% -0.2% 60.8% 65.9% 64.1% 30.6% 30.7% 31.7% 91.4% 96.7% 95.8% South Africa 9, % -3.0% 9.2% 11.7% 61.0% 61.3% 63.3% 24.9% 25.0% 24.2% 86.0% 86.4% 87.6% Finland 5, % 15.6% 7.6% 3.2% 78.2% 81.7% 80.1% 20.5% 20.7% 20.6% 98.7% 102.4% 100.6% Ireland 3, % -9.2% -6.2% -6.1% 73.2% 72.1% 72.6% 29.3% 29.2% 28.4% 102.5% 101.3% 101.0% Israel 4, % 13.3% 6.2% 4.0% 74.3% 76.2% 77.2% 32.2% 32.2% 31.5% 106.5% 108.4% 108.7% Czech Republic 3, % 4.1% -0.7% -2.5% 62.5% 63.0% 63.1% 29.9% 29.3% 27.9% 92.4% 92.3% 91.0% U.A.E. 3, % -8.9% -1.2% 0.1% 70.4% 71.5% 70.5% 22.0% 19.9% 17.6% 92.4% 91.4% 88.1% Portugal 4, % -8.6% -4.4% -5.0% 71.7% 71.2% 70.0% 23.3% 22.8% 22.7% 95.1% 94.0% 92.7% Greece 2, % -4.9% -2.2% 0.4% 56.4% 58.3% 62.1% 40.5% 38.8% 38.6% 96.9% 97.1% 100.7% Saudi Arabia 3, % 27.8% 19.6% 15.8% 79.1% 74.2% 73.4% 15.0% 18.3% 18.1% 94.1% 92.5% 91.5% Romania 1, % 9.2% -2.0% -6.9% 72.1% 72.7% 75.0% 42.5% 40.5% 36.8% 114.6% 113.2% 111.8% Morocco 1, % 11.5% 5.9% 10.8% 57.9% 61.2% 64.5% 33.2% 33.8% 33.2% 91.1% 95.1% 97.8% Nigeria 1, % 8.5% 2.1% 17.2% 51.0% 49.3% 48.6% 31.4% 31.2% 31.7% 82.5% 80.5% 80.2% Luxembourg % -3.2% 2.2% -13.0% 66.0% 65.3% 64.7% 37.2% 37.5% 37.2% 103.2% 102.8% 101.9% Bulgaria % 7.6% 0.3% -3.9% 54.6% 55.0% 54.8% 34.8% 35.8% 35.5% 89.5% 90.8% 90.3% Subtotal 425, % 0.4% 1.8% -0.5% 72.0% 73.2% 73.3% 24.8% 24.6% 24.6% 96.7% 97.8% 97.9% Asia Pacific Japan 94, % 2.7% 7.3% 7.8% 69.1% 71.0% 69.1% 33.2% 33.9% 34.4% 102.3% 105.0% 103.5% China 84, % 18.1% 26.1% 26.3% 64.4% 64.6% 66.8% 34.5% 33.3% 31.9% 98.9% 97.9% 98.7% Australia 34, % 0.1% 11.6% 11.0% 64.1% 69.8% 71.6% 27.7% 27.8% 28.1% 91.8% 97.6% 99.7% S. Korea 13, % -12.5% -0.7% 0.0% 78.5% 77.8% 77.9% 23.6% 23.1% 23.1% 102.1% 100.9% 101.1% India 9, % 9.3% 12.1% 10.2% 82.8% 87.7% 87.4% 28.7% 30.1% 31.1% 111.6% 117.9% 118.5% Thailand 5, % 14.7% 18.4% 14.6% 75.6% 69.6% 64.6% 34.4% 35.5% 36.4% 110.0% 105.1% 101.0% Malaysia 4, % 4.5% 8.3% 8.4% 59.0% 61.9% 62.3% 30.6% 28.5% 28.4% 89.7% 90.4% 90.7% Taiwan 3, % 2.7% 7.5% 3.1% 59.6% 58.9% 56.8% 37.3% 37.7% 40.5% 96.9% 96.6% 97.2% New Zealand 3, % 10.6% 16.1% 12.1% 59.5% 90.7% 84.4% 36.6% 35.3% 36.1% 96.1% 126.1% 120.5% Indonesia 3, % 3.5% 15.4% 11.6% 53.3% 54.3% 55.0% 33.0% 33.3% 33.2% 86.3% 87.6% 88.2% Hong Kong 3, % 29.6% 15.7% 11.6% 61.1% 59.9% 59.5% 45.8% 38.9% 39.1% 106.8% 98.8% 98.6% Singapore 2, % 2.1% 6.8% 7.5% 53.8% 55.0% 55.7% 32.8% 33.2% 33.1% 86.6% 88.3% 88.9% Subtotal 262, % 6.5% 12.9% 12.2% 69.4% 70.8% 70.7% 31.0% 30.9% 31.0% 100.4% 101.8% 101.7% Top 50 1,324, % 3.9% 5.6% 3.3% 71.6% 72.8% 72.8% 27.4% 27.3% 27.0% 99.1% 100.1% 99.8% Aon Benfield 7

8 Growth markets and over or under performers Aon Benfield examined premium growth and loss ratio performance by country across motor, property, and liability lines of business as well as premium growth and combined ratio performance by country for all lines. The quadrant plots below summarize the results of that analysis and identify countries as either low growth or high growth and as loss ratio (by line) or combined ratio (total) out performers or under performers. To measure performance, the first three quadrant plots use loss ratio for each line of business while the right-most plot shows combined ratio for all lines of business. Each plot also provides the gross written premium size, in USD millions, of each country. For all quadrant plots, growth is determined based on five year annualized premium growth. Countries with values greater than 7.5 percent are classified as high growth. Loss ratio and combined ratio performance is determined based on five year average loss ratio and five year average combined ratio, respectively. Each country s loss ratio performance is compared against its income level peers, using a USD30,000 GDP per capita split between high income and low income companies. Combined ratio performance is compared against the global combined ratio. Countries with five year loss ratios lower than the average of their income peers, or combined ratios below the global combined ratio, are classified as out performers. Motor Property Loss ratio performance Loss ratio performance Out performers Out performers Out performers Out performers Low growth Austria 2,313 Bulgaria 33 Australia 11,644 Canada 6,607 Brazil* 1,692 Czech Republic 1,182 France 9,945 Chile* 742 Greece* 356 China* 7,007 Japan 17,034 Colombia* 1,078 Malaysia* Austria 480 Ecuador* 337 3,999 Mexico Bulgaria 1,591 Hong Kong* 1, China* 63,522 Netherlands 2,941 India* 1,764 Czech Republic 1,829 Colombia* 1,982 Nigeria 294 Indonesia* 487 Denmark 2,903 Ecuador* 593 Poland 1,209 New Zealand* 421 Hong Kong 481 Indonesia* 1,196 Romania 192 Russia* 2,231 Spain Japan 6,322 57,290 Saudi Arabia Nigeria* Switzerland* New Zealand 3,330 Singapore* 1,179 Singapore Taiwan Norway* 397 South 3,369Africa South 1,144 Africa 4,535 Thailand Switzerland 294 Turkey* 6,449 Thailand* 595 3,854 U.A.E.* U.S. 1, ,817 Venezuela* Venezuela* 1,166 4,506 Low High growth growth Belgium Belgium 3,151 Argentina 4,422 Argentina 4,830 5,160 Denmark Brazil* 1,026 14,209 Morocco Australia ,854 Finland Canada 1,375 19,768 Norway Chile 1,594 1,181 Germany Finland 16,331 Sweden 2,051 India 203 5,213 Ireland France ,785 Malaysia 2,388 Israel Germany ,671 Morocco 931 Italy Greece 5,392 2,006 Saudi Arabia 1,695 Luxembourg Ireland 193 1,520 Portugal Israel 1,047 2,401 S. Korea Italy 1,797 24,799 U.K. Luxembourg 16, U.S. Mexico 133,766 5,193 Netherlands 5,483 Poland 4,361 Portugal 1,739 Romania 1,281 Russia 11,127 S. Korea 8,896 Spain 12,717 Sweden 3,287 Taiwan 2,254 Turkey 4,475 U.A.E.* 1,227 U.K. 23,789 High growth Low growth Austria 9,767 Belgium 10,880 Brazil* 23,647 Brazil* Bulgaria 7, Bulgaria Canada ,179 Greece Czech Republic 730 3,935 Hong Kong Denmark 745 8,473 India France 2,223 66,918 Australia 34,097 Luxembourg Germany ,432 Chile* 3,708 Malaysia Italy 1,573 37,397 China 84,431 Romania Mexico ,415 China* Ecuador* 13,902 1,547 Singapore Norway 744 Colombia* 9,454 Hong 1,365 Kong 3,187 Spain Poland 10,216 Ecuador* 7,439 Indonesia* 616 3,404 Switzerland* Portugal 5,165 Indonesia* 4,165 Malaysia* 1,721 4,442 Taiwan Russia* 1,266 19,199 Mexico Morocco 3,631 1,638 Turkey* Spain 2,700 28,826 Morocco* Nigeria* 307 1,136 U.A.E.* Sweden 1,106 Nigeria* 7,669 Saudi Arabia* 548 3,067 U.K. Switzerland 25,132 14,682 Russia* Singapore* 5,860 2,501 U.S. Taiwan 191,255 3,917 Saudi Arabia* South 1,121 Africa 9,968 Venezuela* U.A.E.* 1,059 3,424 South Africa Venezuela* 4, Low High growth growth Austria Finland 3,455 Argentina* 5,107 Argentina 1,844 11,835 Belgium Greece 3,307 Australia 2,840 Colombia 11,598 4,425 Canada Ireland 15,803 Chile 3,548 India 1,784 9,200 Czech Republic Israel 1,141 New 4,326Zealand Japan 2,287 94,825 Denmark Luxembourg 4,544 Thailand 951 New Zealand 1,503 3,886 Finland Netherlands 1,682 13,366 Thailand* 5,651 France Romania 25,672 1,929 Germany S. Korea 23,030 13,298 Ireland Turkey 1,216 7,770 Israel U.K. 1,181 65,538 Italy U.S. 7, ,838 Japan 20,501 Netherlands 4,943 Norway 4,916 Poland 1,868 Portugal 978 S. Korea 2,605 Sweden 4,179 High growth Under performers Under performers * Indicates country was a high growth out performer in 2013 Insurance Risk Study Bold indicates country outperforms in all four quadrant plots. Under performers Under performers 8 Insurance Risk Study

9 Twenty countries are high growth, loss ratio outperformers in at least one line of business. Of these twenty countries, five appear in each of the lines of business analyzed as high growth out performers: China, Colombia, Ecuador, Indonesia, and South Africa. All but China and South Africa were similarly distinguished last year. If we compare these countries on the basis of overall combined ratio, four of the five are outperformers globally. The exception is Colombia, which underperforms its peers with a five year net combined ratio of percent, driven by a higher than average expense ratio. In addition to the four outperforming countries mentioned above, nine additional countries outperform the global averages for both growth and profitability. Singapore, as an example, outperforms for both motor and liability insurance, and with an all lines five year combined ratio of 88.9 percent, it has been a significantly more profitable market than its overall Asia Pacific peer group. (See the Top 50 P&C Markets table, page 7 for more details.) Using combined ratio in addition to loss history allows us to further analyze and target high growth opportunities. Liability All Lines Loss ratio performance Combined ratio performance Out performers Out performers Out performers Out performers Low growth Austria 2,313 Bulgaria 33 Australia 11,644 Canada 6,607 Brazil* 1,692 Czech Republic 1,182 France 9,945 Chile* 742 Greece* 356 China* 7,007 Japan 17,034 Colombia* 1,078 Malaysia* 480 Ecuador* 337 Austria Mexico 3,999 1,591 Hong Kong* 1,425 Bulgaria Netherlands 673 China* India* 63,522 2,941 1,764 Czech Republic Nigeria 1,829 Colombia* 294 Indonesia* 1, Denmark Poland 2,903 Ecuador* 1,209 New Zealand* Hong Kong Romania 481 Indonesia* 192 Russia* 1,196 2,231 Japan Spain 57,290 Nigeria* 6,322 Saudi Arabia New Zealand Switzerland* 1,179 Singapore 3,330 Singapore* Norway* Taiwan 3,369 South 397Africa South 4,535 Africa 1,144 Switzerland Thailand 6,449 Thailand* 294 Turkey* 3, U.S. U.A.E.* 206,817 Venezuela* 1,137 Venezuela* 4,506 1,166 Low High growth growth Belgium Belgium 4,422 Argentina 3,151 Argentina 5,160 4,830 Brazil* Denmark 14,209 Australia 1,026 Morocco 12, Canada Finland 19,768 Chile 1,375 Norway 1,181 1,594 Finland Germany 2,051 16,331 India Sweden 5, France Ireland 24,785 Malaysia 812 2,388 Germany Israel 30,671 Morocco Greece Italy 2,006 Saudi 5,392Arabia 1,695 Ireland Luxembourg 1, Israel Portugal 2,401 1,047 Italy S. Korea 24,799 1,797 Luxembourg U.K ,617 Mexico U.S. 5, ,766 Netherlands 5,483 Poland 4,361 Portugal 1,739 Romania 1,281 Russia 11,127 S. Korea 8,896 Spain 12,717 Sweden 3,287 Taiwan 2,254 Turkey 4,475 U.A.E.* 1,227 U.K. 23,789 High growth Low growth Austria 9,767 Belgium 10,880 Brazil* 23,647 Bulgaria Brazil* 917 7,745 Canada Bulgaria 42, Czech Republic Greece 3, Denmark Hong 8,473 Kong 745 France India 66,918 Australia 2,223 34,097 Germany Luxembourg 71,432 Chile* 277 3,708 Italy Malaysia 37,397 China 1,573 84,431 Mexico Romania 10,415 Ecuador* 456 China* 1,547 13,902 Norway Singapore 9,454 Hong 744Kong Colombia* 3,187 1,365 Poland Spain 7,439 10,216 Indonesia* Ecuador* 3, Portugal Switzerland* 4,165 Malaysia* 5,165 Indonesia* 4,442 1,721 Russia* Taiwan 19,199 Morocco 1,266 Mexico 1,638 3,631 Spain Turkey* 28,826 Nigeria* 2,700 Morocco* 1, Sweden U.A.E.* 7,669 Saudi 1,106Arabia* Nigeria* 3, Switzerland U.K. 14,682 25,132 Singapore* Russia* 2,501 5,860 Taiwan U.S. 3, ,255 South Africa Saudi 9,968 Arabia* 1,121 U.A.E.* Venezuela* 3,424 Venezuela* 1,059 South Africa 672 4,289 Low High growth growth Finland Austria 5,107 Argentina 3,455 Argentina* 11,835 1,844 Greece Belgium 2,840 Colombia 3,307 Australia 4,425 11,598 Ireland Canada 3,548 15,803 India Chile 9,200 1,784 Israel Czech 4,326 Republic Japan 1,141 New 94,825 Zealand 2,287 Luxembourg Denmark 951 New 4,544 Zealand Thailand 3,886 1,503 Netherlands Finland 13,366 Thailand* 1,682 5,651 Romania France 1,929 25,672 S. Korea Germany 13,298 23,030 Turkey Ireland 7,770 1,216 U.K. Israel 65,538 1,181 U.S. Italy 531,838 7,206 Japan 20,501 Netherlands 4,943 Norway 4,916 Poland 1,868 Portugal 978 S. Korea 2,605 Sweden 4,179 High growth Under performers Under performers Under performers Under performers Aon Benfield 9

10 Looking Ahead: Growth Projections For the growth-seeking insurance enterprise, an analysis of historical growth trends and relative profitability will provide a good indication of where to initially target opportunities. However, the key is to be able to understand what is driving the trends and how they might change over the near term, and what these changes may mean for an evolving global insurance marketplace. We have projected global property casualty insurance premium growth for the next five years, for the overall insurance market, and for motor, property, and liability. These projections are based on a weighting of historic premium growth rates with projected country GDP and population estimates. By 2018, we expect the global insurance market to grow by 18 percent to a total direct written premium of USD1.6 trillion. Motor insurance will remain the largest property casualty segment, accounting for 47 percent of total direct written premium, followed by property (33 percent) and liability (21 percent). The United States will remain the largest property casualty insurance market, representing an estimated 37 percent of global premium. China will surpass Japan to become the second largest market, with an expected 9 percent of premium. But note that the U.S. projected annual growth rate is 2.7 percent while China s is over 11 percent. Digging deeper into each line reveals similar trends. In each line the U.S. will remain the largest property casualty insurance market, but with relatively limited growth prospects. Global 2018 premium projections Projected direct written premium by line 2018 projected premium mix Total DWP: $1,627 Total Growth: 18% 20% 757 Property 33% % % Motor 47% Property Liability Motor Liability 21% Projected Projected annual growth % Country Rank DWP (USD B) Rank DWP (USD B) United States % China* % Japan* % Germany % France % China will become the second largest insurance market in the world by 2018 and account for over 10% of global DWP *2013 DWP unavailable; 2012 used as proxy 10 Insurance Risk Study

11 Motor Motor, which accounts for USD633 billion of global premium today, will experience continued rapid growth with a 20 percent five year rate increasing to USD757 billion of direct written premium. Such projections are easy to understand, given that we expect continued strong population growth, particularly in developing markets and an early sign of middle class life is owning a car, usually with auto insurance as a compulsory addition. China is already the second largest auto market, and will almost certainly retain this position given its projected 11.3 percent annual growth. Yet we must also express a note of caution: the widely expected partial de-tariffing of China motor business later this year has the potential to shake-up the world s fastest growing insurance market. Companies are struggling with the data and modeling implications of the change, as well as the potential market reaction to new pricing flexibility. An extremely competitive market reaction could lower the growth rate through an adjustment period. Long term growth that is driven by economic fundamentals is, however, unlikely to be significantly impacted. We project no change in rank amongst the top five global motor markets. Despite more limited population growth, wealth generation continues in these countries at a rapid pace, with more families owning multiple cars, supporting continued steady growth; developing countries have a long way to go to catch up with motor penetration in these top markets. Later in the Study we discuss the changing dynamics of the U.S. motor insurance market. We do anticipate similar changes globally, but further off in the future; the technologies gaining momentum in the U.S. will be slower to make their way into the developing markets. As such, despite slow projected growth in the U.S., global growth will remain strong. Motor 2018 premium projections Projected direct written premium by country 2018 projected premium: USD757 billion 12% 10% 8% 2018 est. premium for country U.S. Brazil Canada Rest of Americas China 6% Japan 4% 2% 0% China Saudi Arabia India Malaysia Ecuador Thailand Indonesia Chile Colombia Argentina Middle East & Africa Rest of Europe Rest of Euro Area U.K. South Korea Rest of APAC France Germany Projected Projected annual growth % Country Rank DWP (USD B) Rank DWP (UD B) United States China* Japan* Germany France *2013 DWP unavailable; 2012 used as proxy Aon Benfield 11

12 Property China is by far the largest of the rapidly growing property markets in the world with an 8 percent expected growth rate, representing nearly USD20.5 billion of direct written premium, which will tie China with Japan for the fifth largest property market in five years. Many other countries with high expected premium growth currently have a relatively small premium base. Thailand, for instance, has nearly 9 percent executed annual growth but only USD2.3 billion of projected property premium. When determining where and how to grow, companies must balance the growth opportunity against the total market opportunity. Catastrophe risk potential is another important consideration for property lines. Economic growth and urbanization are creating greater risk concentrations, often in catastrophe exposed areas. Property premium growth is driven, in part, by catastrophe losses both actual and potential. Aon Benfield can use its understanding of global catastrophe risk to produce an optimal blending of target growth and acceptable risk. Property 2018 premium projections Projected growth rate by country 2018 projected premium: USD529 billion 10% 8% 6% 2018 est. premium for country U.S. Brazil Canada Rest of Americas China Japan South Korea Rest of APAC 4% France Germany 2% 0% Thailand Ecuador China Hong Kong New Zealand Malaysia Saudi Arabia India Mexico Nigeria Middle East & Africa Rest of Europe Rest of Euro Area U.K Projected Projected annual growth % Country Rank DWP (USD B) Rank DWP (USD B) United States Germany United Kingdom France Japan* *2013 DWP unavailable; 2012 used as proxy 12 Insurance Risk Study

13 Liability Liability insurance is the smallest of the global property casualty segments, at approximately half the size of the global motor insurance market. The U.S. will remain the largest market by a wide margin, and with Japan, will grow faster than other top five markets. China is the fastest growing market for liability with 16 percent projected annual growth though this will not yet make it a top five market. Liability 2018 premium projections Projected growth rate by country 2018 projected premium: USD341 billion 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 2018 est. premium for country U.S. Brazil Canada Rest of Americas China Japan South Korea Rest of APAC 8% 6% France 4% Germany 2% 0% China Argentina Ecuador Colombia Indonesia India Hong Kong Malaysia Saudi Arabia New Zealand Middle East & Africa Rest of Europe U.K. Rest of Euro Area Projected Projected annual growth % Country Rank DWP (USD B) Rank DWP (USD B) United States France Japan* United Kingdom Germany *2013 DWP unavailable; 2012 used as proxy Aon Benfield 13

14 Reinsurance Global reinsurance premium by year (USD billions) Our analysis so far has focused on primary insurance direct written premium growth without considering the impact of reinsurance. This approach is largely due to data availability: reinsurance data is much more limited and often distorted by the reporting of intercompany reinsurance within global insurance conglomerates Aon Benfield has worked through the available data to estimate the size of the property casualty global reinsurance market and project it five years forward. As of year end 2013, we believe total global ceded written premium is approximately USD170 billion, excluding intercompany reinsurance and other mandatory pools. This amount represents the total opportunity for reinsurers. We do not expect the reinsurance market to grow as rapidly as the primary market. Excess capital in the insurance market will allow companies to retain much of their expected growth, and excess capital in the reinsurance market will pressure rates so ceded premium will not necessarily reflect growth in exposures. The influx of alternative capital could have a positive or a negative impact on reinsurance premium growth depending on price elasticity. Hedge fund reinsurers are bringing new capacity to reinsurance markets, often pricing to a break-even underwriting profit while expecting to make significant returns on assets. Whether such changes will serve to stimulate new reinsurance demand, or merely to further depress prices, remains to be seen. Aon Benfield projects five year growth of approximately 2.1 percent per year for the global reinsurance market. By country, reinsurance growth estimates vary from 5 percent annual growth in South Korea to negative growth in Japan. On average, we expect the mature reinsurance markets to grow about 2 percent per year while developing markets will grow 5 to 7 percent per year. In China, the impact of the new C-ROSS capital standards could have a negative impact on ceded premium in the medium term. The new standards lower the capital requirements for writing motor business, and at the same time, decrease the capital efficiency of certain cessions. The new standards are expected to run in parallel with the current approach in 2015 and to be fully adopted in Given these dynamics, reinsurance companies are seeking out new growth opportunities, as growth certainly will not follow from continued rate reductions. The key to future growth will be innovation coupled with hard data. While capital remains plentiful, primary insurers growth will not broadly translate into reinsurance growth. Reinsurers must develop value propositions and seek partnership opportunities to help primary insurers grow into new markets and in new ways that they could not do by themselves. 14 Insurance Risk Study

15 Uncovering Growth Opportunities Last year Aon Benfield introduced to the Study a detailed screening process that we employ to identify potential markets worth exploring for realistic growth opportunities. Profitability Demographics Contender Geographies Deep dive on strategy, organic growth and M&A opportunities Political Stability Scale Regulation Growth Broker Surveys Our analysis entails an evaluation of basic insurance economics, such as country market scale and insurance penetration, country profitability and loss ratio volatility, and overall out or under performance relative to other opportunities. We couple those basics with an understanding of the larger macroeconomic environment including population changes, GDP measures, and an understanding of the legal and regulatory systems. Finally by combining this fact based information with qualitative feedback from Aon s local teams we can identify attractive opportunities in each country. Our process reveals specific opportunities from which to form executable growth strategies. Aon Benfield has expanded the analysis this year by introducing five year projected insurance premiums in each country, which we have added to the Country Opportunity Index on the next page. We have selected and analyzed several specific trends that we are seeing in the market, including auto, health, crop, and cyber insurance. Based on our experience with carriers, reinsurers, agents, brokers, and other insurance service providers, we highlight some of the key trends and emerging insurance opportunities in each area. Aon Benfield 15

16 Country opportunity index To summarize and sort between the various countries outlined in this section, we have updated our Country Opportunity Index. The index identifies countries with a desirable mix of profitability, growth potential and a relatively stable political environment. For growth potential we used the projections shown on pages 10 to 14 of the Study. The table displays the top 50 P&C markets ranked by the Index and divided into quartiles. Ten of the thirteen countries in Quartile 1 were also in the top quartile last year. Singapore fell from the top spot last year to the number three position, as we estimated its projected premium growth to be less than its recent history. Saudi Arabia is now the top country according to our Index, with a recent combined ratio of 91.5 percent, strong projected growth of 8.1 percent, and only modest political risk. The new entrants to the top quartile are all in Asia Pacific: Hong Kong, China, and Australia. China showed the biggest overall increase on the Index, driven by a combined ratio improvement from percent down to 98.7 percent. Geography is one factor when considering a growth strategy. Another is opportunities created by advances in insurance products. The next section of the Study will delve into several insurance markets where we see significant changes at work and with them, significant opportunity for insurers to differentiate and create value for their clients. Aon Benfield country opportunity index Quartile 1 Quartile 2 Quartile 3 Quartile 4 5yr Cumulative Net Combined Ratio 5yr Annualized Projected Growth Rate Political Risk Assessment Saudi Arabia* 91.5% 8.1% Medium Low Ecuador* 86.9% 7.8% High Singapore* 88.9% 4.6% Low Hong Kong 98.6% 7.0% Low Malaysia* 90.7% 6.8% Medium Indonesia* 88.2% 5.7% Medium Nigeria* 80.2% 4.4% Medium High China 98.7% 11.2% Medium Chile* 95.6% 5.5% Medium Low South Africa* 87.6% 4.4% Medium Norway* 89.6% 2.9% Low Brazil* 85.7% 3.7% Medium Australia 99.7% 4.4% Low Switzerland* 97.1% 3.2% Low United Arab Emirates* 88.1% 2.5% Medium Low Thailand 101.0% 7.3% Medium Sweden* 91.1% 2.4% Low Taiwan 97.2% 3.3% Medium Low Mexico 96.9% 4.2% Medium New Zealand 120.5% 6.7% Low Morocco 97.8% 4.4% Medium High Canada 99.0% 2.9% Low India 118.5% 7.0% Medium Denmark 93.5% 1.6% Low Argentina 104.8% 6.4% High Poland 95.8% 2.2% Medium Low South Korea 101.1% 3.7% Medium Low Russia 88.7% 1.7% Medium Finland 100.6% 2.8% Low Colombia 108.9% 6.1% Medium Israel 108.7% 3.9% Medium Low Luxembourg 101.9% 2.8% Low Germany 99.0% 2.1% Low Austria 99.0% 1.8% Low United States 101.9% 2.7% Low Bulgaria 90.3% 0.9% Medium Japan 103.5% 2.8% Medium Low Czech Republic 91.0% 0.2% Medium Low France 98.9% 1.5% Medium Low Turkey 105.1% 3.1% Medium United Kingdom 101.2% 2.3% Medium Low Belgium 99.0% 1.6% Medium Low Portugal 92.7% 0.6% Medium Venezuela* 96.9% 1.3% High Spain 92.5% -0.1% Medium Netherlands 101.0% 0.8% Low Italy 98.8% 0.4% Medium Greece 100.7% 0.9% High Ireland 101.0% 0.5% Medium Romania 111.8% 1.1% Medium High *Indicates top quartile performer in Index defined in Sources and Notes. 16 Insurance Risk Study

17 Insurance Trends: Risks and Opportunities The insurance industry is evolving rapidly. We are witnessing long term shifts that are changing the risks that property casualty companies insure. Cars are becoming safer. Employers face rapidly rising health care costs. Hardly a week goes without news of a new cyber attack. Advances in modeling are facilitating the growth of the international crop insurance market. And technology is posing new opportunities and risks for individuals and businesses. As the world is becoming more connected, it is also becoming riskier. These shifts present challenges, but also opportunities for insurers. Auto trends Personal auto insurance, which for many years has been the stable cash flow product of the property casualty universe, is currently undergoing a revolution due to advances in technology. Cars today are significantly safer than those that our parents drove. The Economist reports that 90 percent of car crashes are caused by human error. As a result, recent innovations in vehicle safety have focused on mitigating the effects of human error or negligence. The results speak for themselves: the U.S. has seen a 15 percent reduction in crashes for cars with an automatic braking system for example. Between 2000 and 2011, driver deaths due to rollover crashes have fallen more than 50 percent for passenger cars. And for SUVs, the death rate has fallen roughly 90 percent. People in large metropolitan areas are changing the way they get around, from drive share programs to semiprivate car services such as Uber and Lyft. This is forcing the auto insurance industry to think about how to create and better price policies for uberx and Lyft drivers, who need a commercial policy when they have passengers and personal policies when they do not. Recent incidents have posed questions about how these policies overlap. Telematics and usage-based insurance (UBI) are becoming widespread across the industry, with many of the largest U.S. and U.K. auto insurers now having some form of UBI. Insurers believe UBI will allow them to better segment price and risks accordingly. Good drivers should benefit, as in theory drivers who opt for UBI will pay less while other drivers rates will increase. While the potential discount varies by carrier and driver, the average quoted is 30 percent. Smaller insurers are struggling to enter the UBI market, as they lack the scale to offset the up-front investment in telematics infrastructure. Companies are seeking ways to better leverage the data they have accumulated from UBI. Two commonly cited applications are teen driving and commercial trucking monitoring. And the data accumulated from UBI may not only help to sell additional insurance products, but may also be monetized by companies outside the insurance industry. While vast amounts of data exist, companies are only beginning to understand its full value. The insurers that have been successful in growing are doing so with data. Through market segmentation and targeted advertising, auto specialist insurers in the U.S. have expanded their market shares growing at an average annual rate of 7 percent while traditional personal lines insurers premium has on average been static over the past five years. Looking further ahead, driverless cars have the potential to radically change the business model for auto insurers. Personal auto insurance is 45 percent of global premium, and it has long provided ballast and stability for multiline insurers. An insurance world without this ballast would have very different risk dynamics. For example, we estimate that without personal auto, loss ratio volatility for the U.S. market would have been nearly 40 percent higher for the period 1995 to Such changes, while not on the immediate horizon, could increase industry capital intensity and lower premium to surplus ratios by more than 30 percentage points, from 0.84x to 0.50x. We estimate that surplus needed in the U.S. to support personal auto is USD100 to 125 billion. The changing dynamics of the auto industry do not foreshadow the death of the auto insurance industry but do represent a clear emerging risk. Insurers need to keep pace with the changes and innovate accordingly. Aon Benfield 17

18 U.S. health insurance market In 2014, the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act aka Obamacare came into effect. With the ACA, state-run public health care exchanges have become operational, and as of May 2014 approximately 20 million Americans have purchased insurance through these public exchanges. At the same time, and with much less controversy, a revolution has been taking place in the private health care insurance market the advent of corporate health care exchanges. Aon Hewitt has been a pioneer in this market, with 330,000 employees enrolled in its Corporate Health Exchange for Currently, about 60 percent of U.S. workers who receive health insurance through their employers are covered under self-insured plans. For companies with over 5,000 employees this number is even higher by some estimates as many as 94 percent of larger employers run self-insured health plans. In these cases, the role of the health insurer is simply to process payments and bill claims back to the employer hence these plans are called Administrative Services Only plans. But over the past several years, several significant developments in the industry have begun to change how people buy health insurance and increase the flow of insurance premiums into the market. These changes are a real and material opportunity for the insurance industry. Health care costs have risen at a 7 percent annual rate during the 10 years to 2012, with long term trends estimated at 8 to 9 percent per year. At most companies, revenue growth has not kept pace with this expansion in costs. Given these trends, companies are seeking ways to manage costs while continuing to provide essential benefits to their employees. One such way is to rethink the traditional model of a selfinsured health plan. This trend has led to the creation of private health care exchanges. Under this model, companies enroll in a private exchange, which allows insurance companies to compete for their employees health care insurance business. Insurers bear the risk from these policies. The private exchange market is still small; analysts at JP Morgan estimate that less than 1 percent of active employees will be enrolled in private exchanges in Yet interest is high, with an average of 40 percent of employers in recent surveys saying they are considering a switch to a private exchange. The implications for growth in the private health care insurance market are significant. We estimate that if 20 percent of U.S. employers move to private exchanges, then an additional USD350 billion in premium will flow into the private health insurance market. Twenty percent is the minimum level of interest quoted in recent surveys. The median is 33 percent if one in three U.S. employers move to a private exchange, this will generate an additional USD500 billion of premium flow into the market. As a reference point, this number is roughly the size of the entire U.S. property casualty insurance market, as shown in the statistics on page seven. While the potential premium growth can seem staggering, insurers must also consider the capital required to support this growth. We estimate that the U.S. health insurance industry s capital adequacy, as defined by A.M. Best s BCAR model, is currently 225 percent roughly in line with the U.S. property casualty industry s 230 percent. Depending on how much premium flows into private exchanges, we estimate that health insurers capital adequacy could fall between 107 and 128 percent if capital levels remain constant. To maintain a 225 percent capital adequacy level, insurers will need to raise a significant new level of capital: USD105 billion at the minimum, and USD150 billion at the median. The table below summarizes these estimates. Impact of private exchanges on health insurers % of Employers Moving to Corporate Exchanges New health insurance premium (USD billions) Additional required capital to maintain BCAR (USD billions) 20% (minimum) % (median) A capital demand of USD105 billion to USD150 billion is a significant opportunity not only for investors but also for property casualty insurers that are currently sitting on record levels of capital and actively seeking new opportunities in which to deploy it. For traditional property casualty insurers, it is an opportunity to diversify into new lines of (potentially uncorrelated) business. For reinsurers it is an opportunity as well. Reinsurance can provide a substitute to traditional capital and help health insurers lower their capital requirements by sharing risk with the reinsurers. The U.S. group health insurance market has only three insurers who are truly national in scope, so a significant amount of the new commercial premium could fall to regional carriers who are bigger users of reinsurance. 18 Insurance Risk Study

19 Earlier, we mentioned the potential market changes that could take place if driverless cars cause the personal auto insurance market to shrink. Perhaps health insurance will become the new ballast to property casualty commercial lines volatility in the future. U.S. cyber insurance market In the past year, cyber risk has come into the mainstream as a significant threat to businesses of all sizes. The data breach at Target affected as many as one-third of all U.S. consumers, and the Heartbleed bug exposed weaknesses in 17 percent (500,000) of the internet s secure web servers. Both the frequency and severity of cyber attacks are on the rise. Attitudes are changing; businesses now see a data breach as inevitable: not if but when. Finally, the Ponemon study included a shocking statistic: that roughly 19 percent of businesses are expected to have a data breach in the next 24 months. These percentages vary by industry, but every company in today s economy is vulnerable to the risks of a cyber attack. Average total cost of a data breach (USD millions) 8 +3% trend 6 4 Different sources count data breaches differently but all agree 2 there is an increasing trend. Symantec released a study counting 253 breaches, a 62 percent increase over The Identity Theft Resource Center counted 614 data breaches last year, rising at an annual trend rate of 11 percent, as shown below Excludes breaches with more than 100,000 records Number of U.S. data breaches by year % trend From its beginnings 15 years ago, cyber insurance has now become a standard product offered by many large commercial insurers. Common coverage includes thirdparty liability protection as well as first-party indemnity protection for breach response expenses, business interruption, forensics, and cyber extortion. Although statistics on the business are difficult to come by, cyber insurance has generally been seen as profitable. That said, a growing number of entrants are offering the coverage, and prices are beginning to fall as competition expands All studies suggest that 2013 was a banner year, of sorts, for data breaches. Notably, 2013 saw eight mega breaches, each more than 10 million records; the previous high was the five breaches in 2011, according to Symantec. In total, 552 million identities were exposed roughly 7.8 percent of the world population. And while breaches are increasing, the cost of a breach is increasing as well. Data from the Ponemon Institute suggest that the cost of the average breach is now USD5.9 million and this number excludes breaches of more than 100,000 records. The Ponemon study also indicates that customers are fleeing from breached companies more than in the past: lost business following a breach rose 15 percent last year. Takeup of cyber insurance is increasing, and the U.S. cyber market is now estimated at roughly USD1.5 billion in gross written premium. Aon Risk Solutions has seen cyber premium rise at a compound annual growth rate of 38 percent over the last five years, according to data from the Aon GRIP platform. Nearly one-third of companies buy some kind of cyber policy. Main Street businesses have been slower to adapt than large corporations. This presents a significant market opportunity for enterprising insurers, given that small and medium enterprises are often the most vulnerable to a cyber attack. A study by Verizon found that 71 percent of cyber attacks are targeted at companies with fewer than 100 employees. Moreover, attacks against small businesses shot up by 91 percent in Small businesses often lack the time and resources to develop sophisticated cyber risk management strategies. Aon Benfield 19

20 Many smaller businesses are responding to such limitations by outsourcing their network security to managed security service providers (MSSPs). While MSSPs can provide valuable services to help companies protect themselves, they are not insurers. Insurers have a vital role to play, by providing indemnity protection as well as sharing their security expertise in this area. Current cyber insurance policies only provide basic protection. Cyber insurance for large companies has focused primarily on first party indemnity protection. This is not surprising, given that since 2004 companies have been required to notify customers in the event their personal information is compromised and the costs of doing so can be considerable. Yet the potential for other kinds of expense is significant. Increasingly, lawyers are pursuing directors and officers in the event that a company fails to protect its data. Target s data breach has generated at least 40 lawsuits against the retailer. Moreover, the current cyber insurance policies focus solely on the direct costs and ramifications of a data breach. They do not contemplate the risk a cyber attack can cause other kinds of damage. Most property and general liability policies exclude cyber risk. The first cyber difference-in-conditions policy to fill such coverage gaps was just made available earlier this year. For Main Street, the coverage options can be confusing, and risk leaving the buyer exposed should an actual event occur. Many insurers will include data breach coverage in their business owners policies but subject to a USD10,000 or USD25,000 limit. Given the size of the potential costs discussed previously, such coverage limits are very low, and may create a false sense of security that businesses are covered. Cyber coverage must evolve in order to meet the needs of buyers, and underwriting practices will need to evolve with it. Cyber underwriting is currently focused more on compliance with industry standard practices than on actual risk assessment. And cyber risk still has an image challenge to overcome: often, it is seen by companies merely as an IT problem, not tied into the larger ERM framework. This suggests a failure by corporate risk managers to translate cyber exposure into a potential bottomline impact that executives can understand and manage. China crop insurance Global population growth and emerging middle classes are driving a rising demand for agricultural products including those used for animal feed. China is the second largest crop insurance market globally, with USD3 billion premium of a global USD22 billion market. The U.S. market is much larger, and fairly mature. The China market, in contrast, is primed for growth. China s population is expected to grow by 4 percent by 2017 totaling nearly 1.4 billion people. Even more impressive, GDP is expected to grow by 50 percent by These significant expectations, coupled with the Chinese government s focus on providing government support to the agricultural industry and rural population, warrant attention when considering growth opportunities. Global crop insurance premium (USD billions) USA China Europe Canada India Latin America 20 Insurance Risk Study