Development for unemployment and employment still looks bright

Transcription

1 Nuremberg, 31 March 2011 Development for unemployment and employment still looks bright The German economy is experiencing a stable economic revival. According to the data of the Federal Statistical Office real GDP grew by 0.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2010 after seasonal and calendar adjustments, growth in the third quarter had amounted to +0.7 per cent. Early indicators signalling the future economic development point to continued growth for 2011, although potential threats have become more numerous lately. All-round the labour market is developing positively. Both the labour force and employment covered by social security grew significantly (after seasonal adjustment). After seasonal adjustment both unemployment and underemployment have clearly dropped again in March. The indicator for labour demand, the BA-X, moved upward yet again. Arbeitsmarktberichterstattung@arbeitsagentur.de 1

2 1. Unemployment Seasonally adjusted the decrease for March was 55,000, after -54,000 in February and -20,000 in January. Without seasonal adjustment 102,000 people less were unemployed in March than in February bringing the total down to 3,210,000. In the last three years the number of unemployed persons had gone down by 50,000 on average in the month of March, in March 2010 by 75,000. Year over year 350,000 or 10 per cent persons less were registered as unemployed in March, after reductions of -322,000 or -9 per cent in February. The number of underemployed persons (excluding short time work) has declined by 579,000 or 12 per cent against last year, the figures for February were - 527,000 or -11 per cent. The unemployment rate related to the active civilian population amounted to 7.6 per cent in March which is a decrease of 0.9 percentage points against last year. Against the previous month the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell by 0.2 per cent to a level of 7.1 per cent. The rate was 12.4 per cent in Eastern Germany which is still significantly higher than the 6.4 per cent in Western Germany. Against last year the rate went down by 0.8 percentage points in Western Germany and by 1.0 percentage points in Eastern Germany. The jobless figure calculated by the Federal Statistical Office based on the ILO jobless concept was 2.76 million in Germany in February and the jobless rate was 6.5 per cent. Registered unemployment according to the German Social Code (SGB III) was 3.31 million and the unemployment rate was 7.9 per cent during the same month. After seasonal adjustment the jobless rate amounted to 6.3 per cent and the unemployment rate to 7.3 per cent. Arbeitsmarktberichterstattung@arbeitsagentur.de 2

3 2. Labour force and employment According to the Federal Statistical Office, the seasonally-adjusted economically active population (based on the national concept) increased by 33,000 persons in February, after +25,000 in January and +37,000 in December. Without seasonal adjustment, the labour force as calculated by the Federal Statistical Office grew slightly by 15,000 to million between January and February. Compared with the previous year, the labour force expanded by 494,000 or 1.2 per cent, after rising by +463,000 or +1.2 per cent in January. According to the Bundesagentur für Arbeit's preliminary estimated data for the period up to January, employment in jobs subject to social security payments increased by 65,000 after seasonal adjustment, following an increase of +49,000 in December. Employment in jobs subject to social security payments amounted to million in January according to BA estimates, an increase of 608,000 or 2.2 per cent from the previous year, after +551,000 or +2.0 per cent in December. In the year-over-year comparison full-time employment in jobs subject to social security was 378,000 or 1.7 per cent better than last year and part-time employment subject to social security by 224,000 or 4.3 per cent. In December employment in jobs subject to social security payments exceeded last year's figure by 2.3 per cent in Western Germany and by 1.7 per cent in Eastern Germany. Employment is going up in all federal states ranging from +0.6 per cent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern to +2.8 per cent in Lower Saxony and Bavaria. 3

4 3. Demand for labour The quarterly representative enterprise surveys of the Institute of Employment Research on the jobs available in the entire national economy provide a more comprehensive view of the overall labour demand, because these surveys also include the vacancies not registered with the Bundesagentur für Arbeit. As its most recent figure the Institute for Employment Research reports 996,000 vacancies on the first labour market in the national economy during the fourth quarter of 2010 which are 200,000 or 25 per cent more than one year ago. Registered vacancies went up by 9,000 (seasonally adjusted) in March, after going up by 12,000 in February and by 14,000 in January. Without seasonal adjustment, the total number of available jobs amounted to 442,000 in March against last year this is an increase of 122,000 or 38 per cent, after +120,000 or +40 per cent in February. The BA's vacancy index (BA-X) shows the seasonally adjusted trend for the labour demand on the primary labour market. From February to March the BA-X gained 1 point climbing to 165 points, against last year it is 40 points up. Arbeitsmarktberichterstattung@arbeitsagentur.de 4

5 4. Social security According to preliminary estimates 5,594,000 people who were fit for work received earnings replacement benefits under SGB III or basic income support under SGB II in March, 593,000 or 10 per cent less than one year ago. According to a provisional estimate, 937,000 people received the unemployment benefit under SGB III (not including the unemployment benefit for training) in March. There was a seasonal reduction by 109,000 from February to March. After seasonal adjustment a decrease of -48,000 results for March. Compared with last year, there were 346,000 or 27 per cent fewer recipients of unemployment benefits in March, following or -23 per cent in February. The projected number of recipients of unemployment benefit II under SGB II hardly changed from the previous month and amounts to 4,754,000. Seasonally adjusted the decrease for March 2011 amounts to 32,000, after -35,000 in February and -14,000 in January. Compared with last year, the number of recipients who were fit for work decreased by 283,000 or 6 per cent in March, after -251,000 or -5 per cent in February and -208,000 or -4 per cent in January. Arbeitsmarktberichterstattung@arbeitsagentur.de 5

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