Tulsa Economic Forum November 18, Chad Wilkerson

Transcription

1 Tulsa Economic Forum November 18, 215 Chad Wilkerson Vice President, Economist, and OKC Branch Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

2 Oil prices fell sharply in late 214, and after a bump up in Q2 are now expected to stay low WTI Oil Prices 12 $/Barrel EIA April Forecast 8 6 April Futures November Futures EIA November Forecast 4 2 Source: EIA, CME

3 The downturn in oil prices since Q2 is mostly reflective of upward world oil supply revisions Global Oil Supply and Demand 98 Million barrels per day November Supply Forecast April Supply Forecast November Demand Forecast April Demand Forecast Q1-12 Q3-12 Q1-13 Q3-13 Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q Source: EIA

4 Historically, Oklahoma suffers from big oil price drops, especially when the sector is large Oklahoma Energy Sector Size and State Economic Indicators in years with a >3% real oil price decline, 198-present 2% 15% 13% 15% 13% 1% 5% % -5% 9% 9% 8% -2% -2% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 3% 2% 3% 2% 1% -2% -4% 5% -1% -1% -3% 6% -1% -2%? -1% -15% -2% -25% -15% -16% -2% -1% -11% -7% -8% -7% % -7% Mining share of OK jobs Mining share of OK worker earnings 1-year OK mining jobs change 1-year OK real sales and tax receipts recr. tax receipts 1-year total OK jobs change 3-year total OK jobs change Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Census Bureau

5 Oklahoma employment is down from earlier in the year, but trends differ across the state Level of Payroll Employment Through September Index: Jan-14= United States OKC metro Tulsa metro Oklahoma Non-metro Oklahoma Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

6 Energy jobs have fallen sharply everywhere, but spillover to other industries varies Percent change, sa Job Growth by Industry Feb-15 (state-level peak) to Sept-15 U.S. OK OKC Tulsa Non Metro Total Other Private Sectors Government Manufacturing Nat. Resources (Mining) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

7 Oklahoma unemployment has increased this year, but still remains quite low Unemployment Rates Seasonally Adjusted 11 Percent U.S. OK OKC Tulsa Non-Metro Sep-5 Sep-6 Sep-7 Sep-8 Sep-9 Sep-1 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

8 State job growth outpaced the nation the past decade, driven mostly by energy Average Annual Employment Growth Percent 12 1 US OK Tulsa Metro* Total Total excl. Mining Mining Health Care Hosp. & Leisure Prof. & Bus. Services All other industries Finance, Real Estate, & Constr. Trade State & Local Govt. Agri. Federal Govt. Mfg. * for Tulsa metro, annual average is for or depending on industry data availability Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

9 Housing activity has remained relatively solid in 215 in Oklahoma 25 2 Index: Jan-96=1 U.S. OK Single-Family Housing Permits 3-month moving average, through Sept OKC Tulsa Source: U.S. Census Bureau

10 And home prices have continued to increase solidly in the state 15 % change, y-o-y Single-Family Home Price Index Through Q U.S. OK OKC Tulsa Source: FHFA

11 So far, office vacancy rates have also stayed low, especially compared to Houston Office Vacancy Rates Through Q Percent U.S. Tulsa Oklahoma City Houston Source: TWR

12 In related news, banking conditions remain very good in the state Share of Banks Not Making a Profit Commercial Banks 35 Percent 35 3 U.S OK Q2 25 Q2 26 Q2 27 Q2 28 Q2 29 Q2 21 Q2 211 Q2 212 Q2 213 Q2 214 Q2 215 Source: FDIC

13 But regional oil firms now do not expect profitable oil prices until at least 217 Tenth Fed District Energy Survey Oil Price Special Question Responses 1 $/Barrel $/Barrel 1 9 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q $79 $62 $6 $7 $56 $63 $7 $ $ Profitable Price 215 Year-End Expected WTI Price 216 Year-End Expected WTI Price Source: FRBKC Energy Survey

14 With oil expected to be low for longer, most energy firms plan capex cuts in 216 How much do you expect your capital spending to change in? 5 Percent of firms (Q4-14) 216 (Q3-15) Up more than 2% Up 1-2% Up less than 1% Down less than 1% Down 1-2% Down more than 2% Source: FRBKC Energy Survey

15 Jobless claims have risen again lately, suggesting unemployment may go higher 15 Index, Jun-14=1 Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance 4-week moving avg., seasonally adjusted OK U.S Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

16 Still, low relative joblessness should make this Oklahoma oil downturn less severe 8 Percent OK Relative Employment Growth and Unemployment Rate 3-month moving average of job growth from 6 months ago vs. deviation of unemployment rate from its long-term average July 215 level OK Unempl vs long-term avg OK - US Employment Growth Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

17 Summary After a moderate rebound in Q2, oil prices have fallen again and firms now expect prices to be low through 216 Divergence between Oklahoma and U.S. job trends has risen in 215, driven by energy-related difficulties However, real estate and banking remain solid, and unemployment is low compared to past large oil downturns.

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