Labour Market Analysis

Transcription

1 Labour Market Analysis Monthly Update September Release Economic Development and Culture

2 1. Summary 1 2. Cornwall Claimant count Jobseekers allowance Community Network Areas Where have the jobseekers by occupation - come from? JSA on and off-flows Vacancies Labour market overview resident based Workplace data Benefit claimants working age client group Occupations the workforce of Truro United Kingdom Main points for May to July Summary of Labour Market Statistics Employment Public and Private Sector Employment Actual Hours Worked Workforce Jobs Average Weekly Earnings Unemployment Claimant Count (experimental statistics) Economic Inactivity Young People in the Labour Market Redundancies Vacancies Main Out of Work Benefits Background notes 56

3 1. Summary Cornwall The latest claimant count data for August 2015 was released on 16 September The figures relate to those claiming Jobseekers Allowance. The total for Cornwall is now 3,056. Since July numbers in Cornwall have decreased by 264 or 8%. Year-on-year, since August 2014 the number of claimants in Cornwall decreased by 1,203, or 28%. The August figures are now the lowest recorded during the run of data since 1992 including the pre-recession low in 2007 of 3,994. Since November 2012 the numbers each month have fallen year-on-year. Comparing the change in numbers for Cornwall between August and July (since 1992) indicates that numbers fell in 12 of the 24 years. There is a definite link between the state of the economy and changes between each month. Largest falls were in years when the economy was more buoyant and vice versa. Cornwall s claimant rate in August was 0.9% down from 1.0% in July. Comparative claimant count rates were: UK 1.7%, GB 1.7%, and SW 1.0% respectively. Community Network Areas The number of claimants and the claimant rate varies within Cornwall and different areas show different trends 1. On a monthly basis 18 of the 19 CNAs saw decreases. The largest decreases in percentage terms were Launceston (-23%) and Caradon (-18%). Camelford saw numbers increase. Compared to August 2014, all areas saw falls in numbers, notably Wadebridge & Padstow (-46%), Newquay (-44%), and China Clay (-41%). Highest rates in August were in Camborne-Pool-Redruth at 1.5%, St. Austell at 1.3% then Bodmin at 1.1%. Occupations Year-on-year in August 2015 there were 1,203 fewer jobseekers 2 compared to August Of the 26 occupational groups 2 were static and 24 saw numbers fall 3. Using the usual occupations figures, the biggest reductions were Elementary Administration and Service Occupations, Elementary 1 It should be noted that as claimant count figures are based on where people live rather than where they work, changes do not necessarily reflect the local economy but also commuting patterns. Vacancies require skills sets which are not always available in the immediate locality and jobs will of course be open to competition. 2 Numbers differ compared to the earlier figures due to rounding. Includes Occupation unknown. 3 The figures do not necessarily show which occupations people have moved into only the usual occupation of the claimant. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 1

4 Trades, Plant and Storage Related Occupations, and Administrative Occupations and Caring Personal Service Occupations. The first two of these occupations have seen falls for several months now. Comparing August 2015 to July 2015 overall numbers fell by 265. There was one occupation where numbers rose, 10 occupations which were static and 15 where numbers fell, particularly Sales Occupations. JSA on and off-flows In August there were 1,149 off-flows and 884 on-flows. Of the 1,150 offflows, 48.3% were accounted for by people obtaining a job, 28.3 failed to sign and 11.3% not known. Vacancies In August there were 4,571 job postings in Cornwall and Isles of Scilly. This is up from the 2,309 in July and up year-on-year from the 1,415 in August In percentage terms numbers are 223% higher compared to a year ago. Looking at the run of data over time generally shows a peak each January, although this year numbers continued to rise into March before stabilising at a lower level before rising significantly in August 4. Looking at the geographical distribution within Cornwall 5 Truro accounted for a significant number of vacancies 18.9% of the total. Other top towns were St. Austell (6.5%), Redruth (6.2%), Falmouth (6.2%), Bodmin (5.5%), and Newquay (5.4%). Labour market overview resident based Labour market figures for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly from the Annual Population Survey are available up to March This covers those of working age namely the age group who are resident in Cornwall 7. The latest totals were 243,800 employed (of whom 185,200 were employees with 55,500 self-employed 8 ). There were 12,000 who were unemployed while 167,400 worked full-time representing 68.6% of those in employment. The figures show that over the last year the numbers of those aged have fallen slightly 9, while the numbers of economically active have increased significantly and the economically inactive have decreased. Employment numbers are up substantially, particularly the self-employed and those working part-time with the numbers of unemployed down slightly. Looking at percentage changes over the year, the number of those working part-time rose by 6% and self-employed by 15%, more than the average rise in employment of 4%. Turning to rates, both economically active (from 4 Changes in numbers may also reflect improvements in data capture. 5 Not all vacancies have a specific geographic location, 21.4% in all. 6 Figures cover a year and are produced quarterly; all figures for age group Data has been reweighted in line with the latest ONS estimates. 8 Numbers do not sum to all those employed. 9 Due to the volatility of the data changes in figures from one period to another may not reflect underlying trends. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 2

5 74.7 to 78.8%) and employment rates (71% to 75.1%) have moved up. The self-employment share of employment has trended upwards from 20.8% to 23.1%. Looking at trends in the data since Pre-recession there was an upward movement in the numbers of those aged 16-64, the economically active and employed. The recession and its aftermath saw a period of stability as numbers flat lined; more recently all three of these groups have seen numbers rise again. Numbers of economically inactive were relatively static though peaking in late 2012; they have now fallen back and are below the 2004 figures. After reaching a low of 7,500 in early 2006 the numbers of unemployed rose to peak in 2010 before falling back. However they are still higher than they were in Looking at rates over time. The most prominent changes are the decline in employees with the rise in self-employed, and the decline in full-time and the concomitant rise in part-time employment. The chart also shows that unemployment peaked in 2010 at 9.4%, with a decline over time. Comparing Cornwall to the UK using a four period 10 average removes some of the volatility in the data. Comparing the averages shows that: economic activity rates and economically inactive rates are now very similar to the UK. Employment rates have now moved above the UK rate. As expected both self-employment and part-time employment are higher in Cornwall and conversely employee levels and full-time employment are lower. Average unemployment runs at 4.9% compared to the UK average of 6.6%. Much labour market analysis focuses on the working age group. However, a there is a significant number of people aged 65 plus in the total workforce. The latest figures show that there were 15,300 people in this age-group in employment. This represents 5.9% of the workforce down on the 6.3% a year earlier. Whereas the age-group saw a 4.1% increase over the year, the 65 plus group saw numbers decrease by 3.2%. Workplace data In all, the latest figure shows there were 250,800 working in Cornwall in early Of these 58,900 were self-employed, with 177,700 employees, with another 14,200 employees deemed to be working on a flexible basis. Over the year, numbers in employment decreased by 1,700 with a rise in self-employment. The numbers of those employed on a flexible basis fell back. As a share of the workforce, self-employed rose from 22.7% to 23.5%, while those on flexible contracts were stable at 5.7% of the total. Workplace employment since 2004 shows that numbers peaked in late 2006 pre-recession, and then fell back before rising until early Numbers 10 Each period covers one year, and each year includes 3 of the quarters covered in the previous year. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 3

6 then fell back again until late Numbers then increased to peak in mid 2014 since when they have fallen back to stand at 250,800. Sixty-five plus Overall since 2004 there has been a general upward trend in both the numbers and share of the workforce of those aged 65 plus. In 2004 there were 6,600 while the figure in early 2015 was 15,000. Despite this there have been some fluctuations in the figures. In 2004, the 65 plus age group constituted 2.8% of the workforce by late 2013 it had reached 6.3% and now stands at 6%. Benefit claimants working age client group The latest release brings the working age data up to February This gives a total of 43,110 claimants of whom 32,250 were claiming out-ofwork benefits. The number on out-of-work benefits and all benefits rose on a quarterly basis but decreased on an annual basis. Both changes were largely attributable to changes in the number of JSA claimants. At 9.9% the out-of-work claimant rate is just above the GB rate of 9.8%. The total Working Age rate at 13.3% is also just above the GB rate of 12.6%. Both out-of-work and total working age rates increased across Great Britain. There was a general decline in the all working age benefits rate from 1999 (15.1%) reaching a low of 12.9% in May With the onset of the recession figures then picked up to reach 14.7% in February 2009, and rising to 15.1% in February Since then the rate has fallen back although the recent figure of 13.3% represents an upward move. For most of the time rates in Cornwall were below the UK average although since August 2012 they have been slightly above. There was a general decline in the out-of-work benefits rate from 1999 (13.3%) reaching a low of 10.3% in May With the onset of the recession figures then picked up to reach 12.1% in February Since then the rate has fallen back to stand at 9.9%. For most of the time rates in Cornwall were below the UK average, since November 2012 figures have been slightly above. Occupations the workforce of Truro Truro composed of three MSOAs has a distinct workforce occupation profile compared to the Cornish average. Whereas Skilled Trades takes first place across Cornwall with 17.2% of the total, for Truro the figure is only 6.1%. The main occupational group in Truro is Professional occupations accounting for 25.4% of all employment nearly twice the Cornish average of 13%. The difference can be attributed to the high number of health professionals due to the location of Treliske hospital in the Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 4

7 city. Health professionals constitute 47.1% of all professionals compared to an average of 28% across Cornwall. Other groups with higher shares of the workforce are: Administrative and secretarial occupations (14.1% to 9.4%), Associate professionals (11.7% to 10%), and Sales and customer service occupations (11.1% to 8.4%). Process, plant and machine operatives, Skilled trades occupations and Managers, directors and senior officials were all under-represented, particularly the first two groups. There are important differences within Truro. Professional occupations accounted for 38% of all employment in Truro and Threemilestone mainly Health professionals at 24%, while Sales and customer service occupations and Administrative and secretarial occupations were the main groups in Truro West both at 17%. The primary group in Truro East was also Professional occupations at 28%, but here dominated by Teaching and educational professionals and Business, media and public service professionals both at 12% of the total workforce. United Kingdom - Main points for May to July 2015 There were million people in work, 42,000 more than for February to April 2015 and 413,000 more than for a year earlier. There were million people working full-time, 361,000 more than for a year earlier. There were 8.36 million people working part-time, 52,000 more than for a year earlier. The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 73.5%, little changed compared with February to April 2015 but higher than for a year earlier (72.8%). There were 1.82 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 10,000 more than for February to April 2015 but 198,000 fewer than for a year earlier. The unemployment rate was 5.5%, unchanged compared with February to April 2015 but lower than for a year earlier (6.2%). The unemployment rate is the proportion of the labour force (those in work plus those unemployed) who were unemployed. There were 8.99 million people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive (not working and not seeking or available to work), 24,000 fewer than for February to April 2015 and 65,000 fewer than for a year earlier. The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive) was 22.1%, little changed compared with February to April 2015 but down slightly from a year earlier (22.3%). Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 5

8 Comparing May to July 2015 with a year earlier, both total pay (including bonuses) and regular pay (excluding bonuses) for employees in Great Britain increased by 2.9%. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 6

9 Introduction This report sets out the latest data relating to the labour market, based on the data released by the Office for National Statistics (some of which is provided through NOMIS). NB Claimant count figures for Cornwall and other areas in Section 2 are not seasonally adjusted and include those aged 16-64s. Figures provided in Section 3 at a UK level are seasonally adjusted and cover those aged These are the figures cited on the BBC and other media outlets. Hence, the difference in format will account for any discrepancy in the figures. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 7

10 2. Cornwall 2.1 Claimant count Jobseekers allowance The latest claimant count data for August 2015 was released on 16 September The figures relate to those claiming Jobseekers Allowance. [This figure is considered to underestimate the actual numbers unemployed, as it does not include people who are actively seeking work but not claiming Jobseekers Allowance, who are however included in the unemployment figures which are taken as a more accurate representation of the situation. NB. Not seasonally adjusted. Figures for Cornwall cover the unitary area only]. The total for Cornwall is now 3,056. Since July numbers in Cornwall have decreased by 264 or 8%. Within the SW, 14 of the 16 County/Unitary areas saw decreases in the number of claimants from the previous month. Largest decreases were in Bournemouth (-9%), Poole (-8.4%), and Cornwall (-8%). The UK figure was down by 2.1%, GB down by 2.2% and SW by 3.6%. All details in Table 1. Table 1: Claimant count numbers Date August July August Change Monthly Annual Area No's No's No's No's % No's % Bath and North East Somerset Bournemouth Bristol, City of Cornwall Devon Dorset Gloucestershire Isles of Scilly # # # # # # # North Somerset Plymouth Poole Somerset South Gloucestershire Swindon Torbay Wiltshire Cornwall and Isles of Scilly South West England Great Britain United Kingdom Year-on-year, since August 2014 the number of claimants in Cornwall decreased by 1,203, or 28%. This compares to a decrease across the UK of 26% and GB of 27%, and 27% across the South West. Compared to August Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 8

11 2014, all authorities saw a decrease in numbers. The largest percentage decreases were in Swindon (-41%), North Somerset (-39%), and Bath & NE Somerset (-38%). Fig 1 shows the number of jobseekers for each month since January The figure clearly illustrates the impact of the recession and recovery on the claimant count. The August figures are now the lowest recorded during the run of data since 1992 including the pre-recession low in 2007 of 3,994. Since November 2012 the numbers have fallen year-on-year. Fig 2 tracks the year-on-year changes in percentage terms since The labour market started to turn down in July 2008 with increases in job seeker numbers rising thereafter, and peaking in March to May The rate of increase then fell back before returning to positive territory in March 2010 with numbers decreasing. However by April 2011 the situation deteriorated again with an increase in claimants until December 2011, remaining in negative territory until August From November 2012 the position turned positive with each month seeing the percentage change year-on-year increase to peak at -38% in August Since then the year-on-year change has fallen back with the latest figure at -28%. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 9

12 Comparing the change in numbers for Cornwall between August and July (since 1992) indicates that numbers fell in 12 of the 24 years. There is a definite link between the state of the economy and changes between each month. Largest falls were in years when the economy was more buoyant and vice versa. The largest increase was in 2008 the start of the recent recession. Figure 3 below shows the change expressed in percentage terms for each year. Cornwall s claimant rate in August was 0.9% down from 1.0% in July. Over the month, claimant count rates fell in 5, and were stable in 10 of the 16 local authorities in the South West. Comparative claimant count rates in August were: Cornwall 0.9%, UK 1.7%, GB 1.7%, and SW 1.0% respectively. Year-onyear, (between August 2014 and August 2015), Cornwall s rate fell by 0.4 points from 1.3% to 0.9%. All authorities saw rates fall over the year, except the Isles of Scilly. All data is in Table 2. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 10

13 Table 2: Claimant count rate August July August Change Date Monthly Annual Area No's No's No's No's % No's % Bath and North East Somerset Bournemouth Bristol, City of Cornwall Devon Dorset Gloucestershire Isles of Scilly 0 # # # # # # North Somerset Plymouth Poole Somerset South Gloucestershire Swindon Torbay Wiltshire Cornwall and Isles of Scilly South West England Great Britain United Kingdom # indicates figure too low to express. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 11

14 2.2 Community Network Areas The number of claimants and the claimant rate varies within Cornwall and different areas show different trends. Table 3 compares the most recent figures and shows changes on a monthly and annual basis. On a monthly basis 18 of the 19 CNAs saw decreases. The largest decreases in percentage terms were Launceston (-23%) and Caradon (-18%). Camelford saw numbers increase. Table 3: Claimant count numbers Aug July Aug Change Monthly Annual Area No's No's No's No's % No's % Bodmin Bude Camelford Caradon China Clay Cornwall Gateway Camborne-Pool-Redruth Falmouth & Penryn Hayle & St Ives Helston & Lizard Launceston Liskeard & Looe Newquay St Agnes & Perranporth St Austell St Blazey etc Truro & Roseland Wadebridge & Padstow West Penwith Cornwall 4,259 3,320 3, , It should be noted that as claimant count figures are based on where people live rather than where they work, changes do not necessarily reflect the local economy but also commuting patterns. Vacancies require skills sets which are not always available in the immediate locality and jobs will of course be open to competition. Compared to August 2014, all areas saw falls in numbers, notably Wadebridge & Padstow (-46%), Newquay (-44%), and China Clay (-41%). Table 4 shows the claimant rate by CNA 11. Highest rates in August were in Camborne-Pool-Redruth at 1.5%, St. Austell at 1.3% then Bodmin at 1.1%. 11 Rates based on 2013 MYE data. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 12

15 Lowest rates were found in Wadebridge & Padstow at 0.4% then Camelford, Hayle & St. Ives and Helston & the Lizard at 0.6%. Table 4: Claimant count rate Aug July Aug Change Monthly Annual Area % % % % % % % Bodmin Bude Camelford Caradon China Clay Cornwall Gateway Camborne-Pool-Redruth Falmouth & Penryn Hayle & St Ives Helston & Lizard Launceston Liskeard & Looe Newquay St Agnes & Perranporth St Austell St Blazey etc Truro & Roseland Wadebridge & Padstow West Penwith Cornwall Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 13

16 2.3 Where have the jobseekers by occupation - come from? Year-on-year in August 2015 there were 1,203 fewer jobseekers 12 compared to August Of the 26 occupational groups 2 were static and 24 saw numbers fall (Table 5) 13. The biggest reductions were Elementary Administration and Service Occupations (-240), Elementary Trades, Plant and Storage Related Occupations (-175), and Administrative Occupations and Caring Personal Service Occupations both (-105). The first two of these occupations have seen falls for several months now. Table 5: Changes in jobseeker numbers August 2015 compared to August 2014 Period Change Usual Occupation No s No s No s 22 : Health Professionals : Protective Service Occupations : Business and Public Service Professionals : Science and Technology Professionals : Culture, Media and Sports Occupations : Managers and Proprietors in Agriculture and Services : Health and Social Welfare Associate Professionals : Business and Public Service Associate Professionals : Customer Service Occupations : Occupation unknown : Leisure and Other Personal Service Occupations : Teaching and Research Professionals : Textiles, Printing and Other Skilled Trades : Science and Technology Associate Professionals : Secretarial and Related Occupations : Skilled Agricultural Trades : Skilled Metal and Electronic Trades : Sales Occupations 1,635 1, : Skilled Construction and Building Trades : Corporate Managers : Process, Plant and Machine Operatives : Transport and Mobile Machine Drivers and Operatives : Administrative Occupations : Caring Personal Service Occupations : Elementary Trades, Plant and Storage Related Occupations : Elementary Administration and Service Occupations All 4,260 3,055-1, Numbers differ compared to the earlier figures due to rounding. Includes Occupation unknown. 13 The figures do not necessarily show which occupations people have moved into only the usual occupation of the claimant. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 14

17 Comparing August 2015 to July 2015 overall numbers fell by 265. There was one occupation where numbers rose, 10 occupations which were static and 15 where numbers fell, particularly Sales Occupations (-95). All data is in Table 6. Table 6: Changes in jobseeker numbers August 2015 compared to July 2015 Period June July Change Usual Occupation No s No s No s 00 : Occupation unknown : Managers and Proprietors in Agriculture and Services : Science and Technology Professionals : Health Professionals : Teaching and Research Professionals : Business and Public Service Professionals : Science and Technology Associate Professionals : Health and Social Welfare Associate Professionals : Protective Service Occupations : Secretarial and Related Occupations : Leisure and Other Personal Service Occupations : Culture, Media and Sports Occupations : Business and Public Service Associate Professionals : Skilled Agricultural Trades : Skilled Metal and Electronic Trades : Skilled Construction and Building Trades : Textiles, Printing and Other Skilled Trades : Customer Service Occupations : Caring Personal Service Occupations : Process, Plant and Machine Operatives : Transport and Mobile Machine Drivers and Operatives : Corporate Managers : Elementary Trades, Plant and Storage Related Occupations : Administrative Occupations : Elementary Administration and Service Occupations : Sales Occupations 1,695 1, All 3,320 3, Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 15

18 2.4 JSA on and off-flows In August there were 1,149 off-flows and 884 on-flows. Of the 1,150 off-flows, 48.3% were accounted for by people obtaining a job, 28.3 failed to sign and 11.3% not known. All details in Table Table 7: Off-flows reasons Reason No's % Found work or increased work to more than 16 hours a week Failed to sign Not known Ceased claiming Gone abroad Claimed benefit other than JSA Other reasons Government supported training Education or approved training All 1, NOMIS state: The percentage of off-flows with a "not known" or "failed to sign" destination has increased since the start of the series (representing 44% of total UK off-flows in July 2009). This is because the completion levels of the forms filled in by JSA leavers have decreased. Many of these unknown leavers will have moved into employment. 14 Numbers rounded for this data set. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 16

19 2.5 Vacancies Fig 4 15 shows the overall trend in vacancy numbers since June 2012 from the Labour Insight tool 16. After peaking in July 2013 numbers fell back but since December 2014 numbers moved up significantly in the early part of the year then fell back in July before picking up again in August. In August there were 4,571 job postings in Cornwall and Isles of Scilly. This is up from the 2,309 in July and up year-on-year from the 1,415 in August In percentage terms numbers are 223% higher compared to a year ago. Looking at the run of data over time generally shows a peak each January, although this year numbers continued to rise into March before stabilising at a lower level before rising significantly in August 17. Looking at the geographical distribution within Cornwall 18 Truro accounted for a significant number of vacancies 18.9% of the total. Other top towns were St. Austell (6.5%), Redruth (6.2%), Falmouth (6.2%), Bodmin (5.5%), and Newquay (5.4%). The 11 towns in Table 8 account for 63.4% of all vacancies. Table 8: Top towns Town No's % Town No's % Truro Penzance St. Austell Launceston Redruth St. Ives Falmouth Liskeard Bodmin Camborne Newquay Total Erratum The August edition Fig numbers in the text did not line up with the actual Fig numbers. 16 The Labour Insight tool is a system produced by Burning Glass to capture vacancies in the labour market. 17 Changes in numbers may also reflect improvements in data capture. 18 Not all vacancies have a specific geographic location, 21.4% in all. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 17

20 Table 9 shows the top ten vacancies by occupation in August. These accounted for 31.3% of all vacancies. Table 9: Top occupations Occupation No's % Nurses (2231) Chefs (5434) Care workers and home carers (6145) Book-keepers, payroll managers and wages clerks (4122) Other administrative occupations n.e.c. (4159) Sales related occupations n.e.c. (7129) Cleaners and domestics (9233) Business sales executives (3542) Health associate professionals n.e.c. (3219) Managers and directors in retail and wholesale (1190) All Of the 4,571 jobs advertised, 2,130 were permanent with 666 temporary. 2,482 (54.3%) were full-time, 314 (6.9%) were part-time. Table 10: Job type August 2015 Permanent Temporary Internship Apprenticeships Unknown All Full-time Part-time Unknown All Table 11 sets out the vacancies by occupation. Professional occupations and Associate professional & technical occupations dominated the vacancies accounting for 21.4% and 17.4% respectively. Biggest changes over the year was for Skilled Trade occupations down by 4.3%. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 18

21 Table 11: Occupations (August 2014) August 2015 Difference Occupation % No's % % 1 Managers, Directors & Senior Officials Professional occupations Associate Professional & technical Admin & secretarial Skilled Trade occupations Caring, leisure & other service occupations Sales & customer service occupations Process, Plant & Machine operatives Elementary occupations Total A breakdown of salary data 19 is given below. 53.8% of vacancies had a salary of between 15,000 and 29,999. Table 12: Salaries Range No's % More than 90, ,000 to 89, ,000 to 79, ,000 to 69, ,000 to 59, ,000 to 49, ,000 to 39, ,000 to 29, ,000 to 19, ,000 to 14, Less than 10, Total 2, Source: Labour Insight. [Labour Insight uses data from real-time job postings. Salary figures are pro rata to reflect full-time, annual wage status]. 19 Note: 39% of records have been excluded because they do not include salary information. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 19

22 2.6 Labour market overview resident based Labour market figures for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly from the Annual Population Survey are available up to March This covers those of working age namely the age group who are resident in Cornwall 21. The latest totals were 243,800 employed (of whom 185,200 were employees with 55,500 self-employed 22 ). There were 12,000 who were unemployed, while 167,400 worked full-time representing 68.6% of those in employment. The figures show that over the last year the numbers of those aged have fallen slightly 23, while the numbers of economically active have increased significantly and the economically inactive have decreased. Employment numbers are up substantially, particularly the self-employed and those working part-time with the numbers of unemployed down slightly. Looking at percentage changes over the year, the number of those working part-time rose by 6% and self-employed by 15%, more than the average rise in employment of 4%. Turning to rates, both economically active (from 74.7 to 78.8%) and employment rates (71% to 75.1%) have moved up. The selfemployment share of employment has trended upwards from 20.8% to 23.1%. All figures in Table 13. Table 13: Labour market indicators Cornwall Apr 13- Mar 14 Jul 13- Jun 14 Period Oct 13- Sep 14 Jan 14- Dec 14 Apr 14- Mar 15 Prev Qtr Change Group No's No's No's No's No's No's No's , , , , ,800-2,900-4,800 Econ active 246, , , , , ,700 Econ inactive 83,500 75,300 72,700 71,200 68,900-2,300-14,600 Employed 234, , , , , ,700 Unemployed 12,100 12,300 12,700 13,100 12,000-1, Full-time 161, , , , , ,100 Part-time 71,900 73,400 74,300 75,800 76, ,200 Employees 183, , , , , ,800 Self employed 48,200 50,200 53,200 55,600 55, ,300 Group % % % % % % % Econ active Econ inactive Employed Unemployed Full-time Part-time Employees Self employed Year 20 Figures cover a year and are produced quarterly; all figures for age group Data has been reweighted in line with the latest ONS estimates. 22 Numbers do not sum to all those employed. 23 Due to the volatility of the data changes in figures from one period to another may not reflect underlying trends. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 20

23 Fig 5 below shows the trends in the data since Pre-recession there was an upward movement in the numbers of those aged 16-64, the economically active and employed. The recession and its aftermath saw a period of stability as numbers flat lined, more recently all three of these groups have seen numbers rise again. Numbers of economically inactive were relatively static though peaking in late 2012; they have now fallen back and are below the 2004 figures. After reaching a low of 7,500 in early 2006 the numbers of unemployed rose to peak in 2010 before falling back. However they are still higher than they were in Fig 6 shows rates over time. The most prominent changes are the decline in employees with the rise in self-employed, and the decline in full-time and the concomitant rise in part-time employment. The chart also shows that unemployment peaked in 2010 at 9.4%, with a decline over time. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 21

24 Comparing Cornwall to the UK using a four period 24 average removes some of the volatility in the data. Comparing the averages in Table 14 below shows that: economic activity rates and economically inactive rates are now very similar to the UK. Employment rates have now moved above the UK rate. As expected both self-employment and part-time employment are higher in Cornwall and conversely employee levels and full-time employment are lower. Average unemployment runs at 4.9% compared to the UK average of 6.6%. Table 14: Labour market indicators - Cornwall and UK Cornwall UK Ratio Status % % % Econ active Economically inactive Employed Unemployed Full-time Part-time Employees Self employed The ratio shows with the figure for Cornwall divided by the UK figure. E.g divided by 74.2 gives a ratio of Numbers greater than 1 show Cornwall has a higher percentage than the UK, less than 1 show that Cornwall has a lower percentage than the UK. All employment Much labour market analysis focuses on the working age group. However, a there is a significant number of people aged 65 plus in the total workforce. The latest figures show that there were 15,300 people in this agegroup in employment. This represents 5.9% of the workforce down on the 6.3% a year earlier. Whereas the age-group saw a 3.1% increase over the year, the 65 plus group saw numbers decrease by 3.2%. All details in Tables 15 and Each period covers one year, and each year includes 3 of the quarters covered in the previous year. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 22

25 Table 15: Employment Cornwall Period Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Prev Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Qtr Change Year ago Group No's No's No's No's No's No's No's All 249, , , , , , ,800 16,300 15,100 15,400 15, , , , , , ,700 Group % % % % % % % Table 16: Employment Cornwall Period Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Prev Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Qtr Change Year ago Group No's No's No's No's No's No's No's All 249, , , , , , ,800 16,300 15,100 15,400 15, , , , , , ,700 Group % % % % % % % Workplace data Table 17 shows the employment data 25 for all those, including 65 plus, whose workplace is in Cornwall 26. In all, the latest figure shows there were 250,800 working in Cornwall in early Of these 58,900 were self-employed, with 177,700 employees, with another 14,200 employees deemed to be working on a flexible basis. Over the year, numbers in employment decreased by 1,700 with a rise in self-employment. The numbers of those employed on a flexible basis fell back. As a share of the workforce, self-employed rose from 22.7% to 23.5%, while those on flexible contracts were stable at 5.7% of the total. All in Table Based on occupation. 26 Data has been reweighted in line with the latest ONS estimates. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 23

26 Table 17: Workplace Employment (No s) Apr 13 Mar 14 Jul 13 Jun 14 Period Oct 13 Sep 14 Jan 14 Dec 14 Apr 14 Mar 15 Prev Qtr Change Year ago Group No's No's No's No's No's No's No's All ,200-1,700 Self-employed ,700 Employees ,700-3,100 Other flexibility Table 18: Workplace Employment % Apr 13 Mar 14 Jul 13 Jun 14 Period Oct 13 Sep 14 Jan 14 Dec 14 Apr 14 Mar 15 Prev Qtr Change Year ago Group No's No's No's No's No's No's No's All Self-employed Employees Other flexibility Fig 7 shows workplace employment since Numbers peaked in late 2006 pre-recession, and then fell back before rising until early Numbers then fell back again until late Numbers then increased to peak in mid 2014 since when they have fallen back to stand at 250,800. The chart also shows the workforce. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 24

27 [Data has been reweighted in line with the latest ONS estimate]. Sixty-five plus Figs 8 and 9 set out what has happened to those aged 65 plus in the workplace workforce. Overall since 2004 there has been a general upward trend in both the numbers and share of the workforce of those aged 65 plus. In 2004 there were 6,600 while the figure in early 2015 was 15,000. Despite this there have been some fluctuations in the figures. In 2004, the 65 plus age group constituted 2.8% of the workforce by late 2013 it had reached 6.3% and now stands at 6%. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 25

28 Source: APS, Workplace analysis. [NB Workplace data is now provided at a Cornwall and Cornwall and Isles of Scilly level which is unusual. There are issues about the accuracy of the data as the discrepancy between the two data sets is substantial. Previous data sets should therefore be disregarded]. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 26

29 2.8 Benefit claimants working age client group The latest release brings the working age data up to February This gives a total of 43,110 claimants of whom 32,250 were claiming out-of-work benefits. The number on out-of-work benefits and all benefits rose on a quarterly basis but decreased on an annual basis. Both changes were largely attributable to changes in the number of JSA claimants. Table 19: Cornwall - No's Group\Period Feb May Aug Nov Feb Qtr Annual JSA 7,060 5,010 4,010 4,500 4, ,230 ESA and incapacity benefits 23,130 23,000 23,050 23,200 23, Lone parent 3,170 3,130 3,100 3,050 3, Others on income related benefit 1,410 1,340 1,240 1,180 1, Out-of-work benefits 34,770 32,480 31,400 31,930 32, ,520 Carer 5,200 5,300 5,420 5,530 5, Disabled 4,610 4,640 4,630 4,560 4, Bereaved All WA claimants 45,260 43,110 42,110 42,660 43, ,150 At 9.9% the out-of-work claimant rate is just above the GB rate of 9.8%. The total Working Age rate at 13.3% is also just above the GB rate of 12.6%. Table 20: Cornwall - % Group\Period Feb May Aug Nov Feb Qtr Annual JSA ESA and incapacity Benefits Lone parent Others on income related benefit Out-of-work benefits Carer Disabled Bereaved All WA claimants Both out-of-work and total working age rates increased across Great Britain. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 27

30 Table 21: Britain - % Group\Period Feb May Aug Nov Feb Qtr Annual JSA ESA and incapacity benefits Lone parent Others on income related benefit Out-of-work benefits Carer Disabled Bereaved All WA claimants There was a general decline in the all working age benefits rate from 1999 (15.1%) reaching a low of 12.9% in May With the onset of the recession figures then picked up to reach 14.7% in February 2009, and rising to 15.1% in February Since then the rate has fallen back although the recent figure of 13.3% represents an upward move. For most of the time rates in Cornwall were below the UK average although since August 2012 they have been slightly above. There was a general decline in the out-of-work benefits rate from 1999 (13.3%) reaching a low of 10.3% in May With the onset of the recession figures then picked up to reach 12.1% in February Since then the rate has fallen back to stand at 9.9%. For most of the time rates in Cornwall were below the Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 28

31 UK average, since November 2012 figures have been slightly above as shown in Fig 11. Source: NOMIS/DWP, Benefit claimants working age client group, 12 August Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 29

32 2.8 Occupations the workforce of Truro The map below shows the three MSOAs that constitute Truro and Threemilestone. Truro and Threemilestone Truro composed of three MSOAs has a distinct workforce occupation profile compared to the Cornish average. Whereas Skilled Trades takes first place across Cornwall with 17.2% of the total, for Truro the figure is only 6.1%. The main occupational group in Truro is Professional occupations accounting for 25.4% of all employment nearly twice the Cornish average of 13%. The difference can be attributed to the high number of health professionals due to the location of Treliske hospital in the city. Health professionals constitute 47.1% of all professionals compared to an average of 28% across Cornwall. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 30

33 Other groups with higher shares of the workforce are: Administrative and secretarial occupations (14.1% to 9.4%), Associate professionals (11.7% to 10%), and Sales and customer service occupations (11.1% to 8.4%). Process, plant and machine operatives, Skilled trades occupations and Managers, directors and senior officials were all under-represented, particularly the first two groups. There are important differences within Truro as shown in Fig 13. Professional occupations accounted for 38% of all employment in Truro and Threemilestone mainly Health professionals at 24%, while Sales and customer service occupations and Administrative and secretarial occupations were the main groups in Truro West both at 17%. The primary group in Truro East was also Professional occupations at 28%, but here dominated by Teaching and educational professionals and Business, media and public service professionals both at 12% of the total workforce. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 31

34 Source: NOMIS, Census Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 32

35 3. United Kingdom 3.1 Main points for May to July 2015 There were million people in work, 42,000 more than for February to April 2015 and 413,000 more than for a year earlier. There were million people working full-time, 361,000 more than for a year earlier. There were 8.36 million people working part-time, 52,000 more than for a year earlier. The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 73.5%, little changed compared with February to April 2015 but higher than for a year earlier (72.8%). There were 1.82 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 10,000 more than for February to April 2015 but 198,000 fewer than for a year earlier. The unemployment rate was 5.5%, unchanged compared with February to April 2015 but lower than for a year earlier (6.2%). The unemployment rate is the proportion of the labour force (those in work plus those unemployed) who were unemployed. There were 8.99 million people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive (not working and not seeking or available to work), 24,000 fewer than for February to April 2015 and 65,000 fewer than for a year earlier. The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive) was 22.1%, little changed compared with February to April 2015 but down slightly from a year earlier (22.3%). Comparing May to July 2015 with a year earlier, both total pay (including bonuses) and regular pay (excluding bonuses) for employees in Great Britain increased by 2.9%. All data is shown in Table 22. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 33

36 Measure Measure Table 22: UK - Labour market indicators Activity Period 3M 27 to July 15 Comparisons 3M to Year ago Apr 15 Employment 28 Rate In employment (16+) No s 31.09m +42, ,000 Employees No s 26.37m +505,000 Self-employed No s 4.51m -51,000 Unpaid family workers No s 103,000-17,000 Training & emp No s 110,000-23,000 Total hours worked per week No s 994.2m -4m +9.4m Unemployment Rate Unemployment No s 1.82m +10, ,000 Over 12 months No s 546,000-28, , unemployed 29 No s 723,000 Inactivity Rate Inactivity No s 8.99m -24,000-65,000 Redundant No s 107, , ,000 July 15 May-July Comp to same period Activity year ago Average regular weekly pay (ex bonuses) % June 15 Mar 15 Year ago Workforce jobs No s 33.69m +102, ,000 June 15 Mar 14 Year ago Public sector employment 31 No s 5.36m -16,000-59,000 Private sector employment No s 25.74m +58, ,000 Aug 15 July 15 Year ago Claimant count 32 No s 791, ,100 3 M to 3 M to May Year ago Aug Vacancies No s 740, , ,000 Source: Office for National Statistics, Labour Market Statistics, Statistical Bulletin, 16 September Months age group ,000 excluding those in full-time education - 245, Great Britain 31 Mainly reflecting reclassification of some educational bodies. 32 Numbers affected by changes in eligibility for Lone Parent Income Support pushing figures up. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 34

37 3.2 Summary of Labour Market Statistics Figure 14 shows how the latest estimates, for May to July 2015, for employment, unemployment and economic inactivity and shows how these estimates compare with the previous quarter (February to April 2015) and the previous year (May to July 2014). Comparing May to July 2015 with February to April 2015 provides the most robust short-term comparison. Fig 14: Changes in the number of people in the labour market, seasonally adjusted Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics. 3.3 Employment Employment measures the number of people in work and differs from the number of jobs because some people have more than one job. Commentary The proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 in work is known as the employment rate. Figure 15 shows the employment rate for people aged from 16 to 64 since comparable records began in The lowest employment rate was 65.6% in 1983, during the economic downturn of the early 1980s. The employment rate has been generally increasing since early 2012 and for the latest time period, May to July 2015, it reached a joint record high of 73.5%. Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 35

38 Fig 15: Employment rate (aged 16 to 64) from 1971, seasonally adjusted (January to March 1971 to May to July 2015) Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics Fig 16 looks in more detail at the employment rate for the last five years. Fig 16: Employment rate (aged 16 to 64), seasonally adjusted Source: Labour Force Survey Office for National Statistics 73.5% of people aged from 16 to 64 were in work for May to July This was: little changed compared with February to April 2015 (73.4%) higher than for a year earlier (72.8%) higher than the pre-downturn peak recorded for early 2008 (73.0%) the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971 Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 36

39 Looking at employment rates by sex, for May to July 2015: 78.3% of men and 68.8% of women aged from 16 to 64 were in work these employment rates for men and women were higher than those for a year earlier the employment rate for men (78.3%) was lower than before the economic downturn of 2008 to 2009, when it peaked at 79.1% in late 2007 to early 2008 the employment rate for women (68.8%) was the highest since comparable records began in 1971, partly due to ongoing changes to the state pension age for women resulting in fewer women retiring between the ages of 60 and 65. For May to July 2015, there were million people in work, 42,000 more than for February to April 2015 and 413,000 more than for a year earlier. For April to June 2015, there were million people in work, 63,000 fewer than for January to March 2015 but 354,000 more than for a year earlier. Comparing the estimates for full-time and part-time employment by sex for May to July 2015 with those for a year earlier, the number of: men working full-time increased by 194,000 to reach million men working part-time increased by 30,000 to reach 2.18 million women working full-time increased by 167,000 to reach 8.37 million women working part-time increased by 22,000 to reach 6.18 million Fig 17: Changes in people in employment in the UK May to July 2014 and May to July 2015, seasonally adjusted Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics Comparing the estimates for type of employment for May to July 2015 with those for a year earlier, the number of: employees increased by 505,000 to reach million self-employed people fell by 51,000 to reach 4.51 million unpaid family workers fell by 17,000 to reach 103,000 people on government supported training and employment programmes fell by 23,000 to reach 110,000 Labour Market Analysis September 2015 release 37