PEER GROUPS CMP MARKET CAP EPS P/E (X) P/BV(X) DIVIDEND Company Name (Rs.) Rs. in mn. (Rs.) Ratio Ratio (%)

Transcription

1 BUY CMP Target Price TECH MAHINDRA LIMITED Result Update (CONSOLIDATED BASIS): Q2 FY16 NOVEMBER 19 th 2015 ISIN: INE669C th h, 2013 Index Details Stock Data Sector IT BSE Code Face Value wk. High / Low (Rs.) / Volume (2wk. Avg.) Market Cap (Rs. in mn.) Annual Estimated Results (A*: Actual / E*: Estimated) YEARS FY15A FY16E FY17E Net Sales EBITDA Net Profit EPS P/E Shareholding Pattern (%) As on Sep 2015 As on Jun 2015 PROMOTER FIIs DIIs OTHERS Year Comparative Graph TECH MAHINDRA LTD S&P BSE SENSEX SYNOPSIS During Q2 FY16, Tech Mahindra Ltd consolidated net profit stood at Rs mn against Rs mn in the corresponding quarter ending of previous year, an increase of 9.17%. Consolidated revenue for the quarter rose by 20.55% to Rs mn from Rs mn, when compared with the prior year period. During Q2 FY16, EBIDTA is Rs mn as against Rs mn in the corresponding period of the previous year, an increase of 9.70%. EPS of the company stood at Rs a share during the quarter. Cash and Cash equivalent at Rs mn as of September 30, The Active Client count stood at 788 in Q2 FY16. Won a major deal from a Nordic Services major, involving a full legacy Data Center Transformation on to a hybrid cloud-based data center solution environment. Won a strategic managed services deal with a leading B2B Nordic Communication Services company to provide services across IT, Infrastructure Management, Networks and Business Services Group. Selected by a leading Global Aerospace and Transportation Company to develop the Aircraft Ground Support System (ACGS). Chosen by a leading ASEAN telecom operator as its Infrastructure Managed Services partner. A leading North American Telco selected Tech Mahindra to design, activate and test data services; to facilitate shorter lead to cash cycle, enhance customer experience and optimize costs. Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 45% and 43% over 2014 to 2017E respectively. PEER GROUPS CMP MARKET CAP EPS P/E (X) P/BV(X) DIVIDEND Company Name (Rs.) Rs. in mn. (Rs.) Ratio Ratio (%) Tech Mahindra Ltd TCS Ltd Wipro Ltd Infosys Ltd

2 QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS (CONSOLIDATED) Results updates- Q2 FY16, Tech Mahindra Ltd offers innovative and customercentric information technology services and solutions, enabling Consulting, Enterprise and Telecom solutions including global customers, reported its financial results for the quarter ended 30 th September, Months Sep-15 Sep-14 % Change Net Sales % Net Profit % EPS % EBITDA % Consolidated net profit stood at Rs million against Rs million in the corresponding quarter ending of previous year, an increase of 9.17%. Revenue for the quarter rose by 20.55% to Rs million from Rs million, when compared with the prior year period. Reported earnings per share of the company stood at Rs a share during the quarter, registering 73.26% decreased over previous year period. Profit before interest, depreciation and tax is Rs million as against Rs million in the corresponding period of the previous year. Break up of Expenditure Break up of Expenditure Q2 FY16 Rs. In Millions Q2 FY15 % Change Travelling Expenses % Other Expenditure % Services Rendered By Business Associates & Others Employee Benefit Expenses Depreciation & Amortization Expense % % % Total Expenditure %

3 Segment Revenue Key wins for the Quarter ended September 30, 2015 Won a major deal from a Nordic Services major, involving a full legacy Data Center Transformation on to a hybrid cloud-based data center solution environment. Won a strategic managed services deal with a leading B2B (Business to Business) Nordic Communication Services company to provide services across IT, Infrastructure Management, Networks and Business Services Group. Selected by a leading Global Aerospace and Transportation Company to develop the Aircraft Ground Support System (ACGS). Chosen by a leading ASEAN telecom operator as its Infrastructure Managed Services partner. Tech Mahindra will help in addressing customers revenue growth, optimize cost, streamline vendor ecosystem and improve ARPU. A leading North American Telco selected Tech Mahindra to design, activate and test data services; to facilitate shorter lead to cash cycle, enhance customer experience and optimize costs. Chosen by a leading global maritime company to provide End to End ERP support and maintenance including management of product vendors. A telecommunications consortium in Middle East Asia selected Tech Mahindra for implementing business and operations support solutions for launching Long Term Evolution (LTE) services. A major satellite broadcast and broadband service provider in the Middle East selected Tech Mahindra to provide business and operations support services.

4 Selected by a global healthcare equipment maker to provide Application Maintenance and Development Services. Engaged by a leading information and communications technology (ICT) solutions provider to deliver business consulting and cloud services. A global auto major chose Tech Mahindra to provide support services for their Customer Service Division and aftermarket application portfolio. Won a Customer Experience operations deal with a leading UK MVNO. Business Highlights for the Quarter ended September 30, 2015 Reserve Bank of India granted an in-principle approval to Tech Mahindra to set up a Payments Bank under the Guidelines for Licensing of Payments Banks. PNMsoft, a global provider of Intelligent BPM Software solutions collaborated with Tech Mahindra to benefit from synergies in key vertical markets. As an expert Microsoft ISV (Independent Software Vendor) in BPM, PNMsoft's unique product suite will complement Tech Mahindra's service offerings in the Customer Experience space while also leveraging capabilities on Microsoft technologies. Real-Time Innovations (RTI), the Industrial Internet of Things connectivity platform company, announced a global partnership with Tech Mahindra. Revenue by Geography

5 Client contribution to revenue IT Business Revenue On/Off Break-up Revenu By Industry Vertical

6 Company Profile Tech Mahindra represents the connected world, offering innovative and customer-centric information technology services and solutions, enabling Enterprises, Associates and the Society to Rise. The Company is a USD 3.9 billion company with 105,200+ professionals across 90 countries, helping over 788 global customers including Fortune 500 companies. The company s innovation platforms and reusable assets connect across a number of technologies to deliver tangible business value to all its stakeholders. Tech Mahindra is also amongst the Fab 50 companies in Asia as per the Forbes 2014 List. Tech Mahindra is a part of the USD 16.9 billion Mahindra Group that employs more than 200,000 people in over 100 countries. The Group operates in the key industries that drive economic growth, enjoying a leadership position in tractors, utility vehicles, after-market, information technology and vacation ownership.

7 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHT (CONSOLIDATED) (A*- Actual, E* -Estimations & Rs. In Millions) Balance Sheet as at March 31, E TECH MAHINDRA LTD. FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E SOURCES OF FUNDS Shareholder's Funds Share Capital Reserves and Surplus Sub Total - Net worth Share application money pending allotment Minority interest Non Current Liabilities Long term borrowing Other Long term Liabilities Long Term Provisions Sub Total - Non Current Liabilities Current Liabilities Short term borrowing Trade Payables Other Current Liabilities Short Term Provisions Sub Total - Current Liabilities Amount Pending Investigation Suspense Account Total Liabilities ( ) APPLICATION OF FUNDS Non-Current Assets Fixed Assets Tangible assets Intangible assets Capital Work in Progress a) Sub Total - Fixed Assets b) Goodwill on consolidation c) Non- Current Investments d) Long Term loans and advances e) Deferred Tax Asset f) Other non-current assets Sub Total - Non Current Assets Current Assets Current Investment Inventories Trade receivables Cash and Bank Balances Short-terms loans & advances Other current assets Sub Total - Current Assets Total Assets (1+2)

8 Annual Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 2014 to 2017E Value(Rs.in.mn) FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E Description 12m 12m 12m 12m Net Sales Other Income Total Income Expenditure Operating Profit Interest Gross profit Depreciation Exceptional Items Profit Before Tax Tax Profit After Tax Minority Interest Share of Profit & Loss of Asso Net Profit Equity capital Reserves Face value EPS Quarterly Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 31 st Mar, 2015 to 31 st Dec, 2015E Value(Rs.in.mn) 31-Mar Jun Sep Dec-15E Description 3m 3m 3m 3m Net sales Other income Total Income Expenditure Operating profit Interest Gross profit Depreciation Profit Before Tax Tax Profit After Tax Minority Interest Share of Profit & Loss of Asso Net Profit Equity capital Face value EPS

9 Ratio Analysis Particulars FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E EPS (Rs.) EBITDA Margin (%) 22.82% 18.83% 18.41% 18.23% PBT Margin (%) 20.26% 15.99% 15.49% 15.30% PAT Margin (%) 16.26% 11.75% 11.59% 11.44% P/E Ratio (x) ROE (%) 33.36% 21.92% 20.20% 18.47% ROCE (%) 52.19% 38.05% 35.00% 32.32% EV/EBITDA (x) Book Value (Rs.) P/BV Charts

10 OUTLOOK AND CONCLUSION At the current market price of Rs , the stock P/E ratio is at x FY16E and x FY17E respectively. Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY1 6E and FY17E is seen at Rs and Rs respectively. Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 45% and 43% over 2014 to 2017E respectively. On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 9.81 x for FY16E and 8.66 x for FY17E. Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 3.38 x and 2.76 x for FY16E and FY17E respectively. We expect that the company surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years, will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also. We recommend BUY in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs for Medium to Long term investment. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Disruptive technologies, expanding competition and rapidly changing customer requirements have impacted the IT-BPM sector immensely. Erratic movements in global commodity prices, inflation, unemployment, digitization, currency movements, changing customer experience and expectations is changing the face of this industry. It provides both opportunities and challenges for the global technology industry. As per the NASSCOM Strategic Report 2015, the worldwide IT-BPM spend was at US$ 2.3 trillion, growing at 4.6% over Global sourcing of services grew by 10%. APAC recorded the highest growth of 5.1%, driven by faster growth in BPM services. While BFSI and Manufacturing continued to gain momentum, emerging verticals like healthcare, communications and media, retail, government and utilities were key growth drivers for the IT industry in India continued to hold on to its leadership position with ~55% market share in global IT sourcing services. The Indian IT-BPM industry continued its growth path embracing global and local volatilities. Its ability to evolve over time is one of the key reasons for India s leadership in the IT-BPM industry. Overall the Industry revenues (exports + domestic) for FY 2015 are expected to cross ~US$ 146 billion, a growth of 13% in constant currency terms over the previous year as per NASSCOM. Exports with ~67% share in revenues are expected to touch ~US$ 100 billion, a growth of 13.1% in constant currency. The Indian IT industry is expected to contribute ~9.5% to India s National Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The Central Government s focus on Make in India and Digital India has boosted the demand for the domestic IT industry. ecommerce, SMAC and IoT have also pushed growth for this sector. The government expects investments in digitization and infrastructure improvement and

11 implementing technology in healthcare, manufacturing and agricultural sectors is an opportunity of ~ US$ 6 billion to the IT services sector. IT-BPM Industry has added ~230,000 employees in FY 2015 while the industry employs ~ 3.5 million and is India s largest private sector employer directly and ~10 million indirectly. It is also playing a key role in promoting diversity within the industry by employing ~34% women. The industry has taken lead in adapting to newer environments over the decades and is now focusing on digitally transforming customers business. The industry has been expanding its service offerings constantly and adding capabilities, evolving business models and providing high customer satisfaction. Indian remains an excellent business delivery model for the IT- BPM industry and has become the epicenter of the global technology industry. It has been growing in size, scale, maturity and domain expertise serving global customers. The impact of disruptive trends such as cloud computing, mobility and analytics have transformed the IT services industry. The adoption of the latest technology trends is focused on changing the delivery methodology of software applications and therefore converge with traditional IT services markets. Implementing new technologies in business solutions has become imperative for all service providers. The future of the Indian IT services sector will largely be impacted by the digital initiatives of the service providers and requirements of the customers. Indian service providers through a combination of constant innovation, maintaining quality of services, moving up the value chain and balancing the digital wave of services with traditional services is expected to grow at the rate of ~13% in FY 2016 too. India remains a high potential market worldwide, offering multiple opportunities for unmet needs. Considering the surge in mobile subscriptions, internet users and ecommerce markets, India is set to leapfrog into the digital world. The last year can be characterized as the year of rapid transition and transformation leading the industry to expanding into newer verticals and geographies, attracting new customers and transforming companies from being technology partners to strategic business partners. Outlook The future of the global technology industry will be shaped by economic forces especially in the advanced countries. As per the IMF global growth remains moderate, with uneven prospects across the main countries and regions. It is projected to be 3.5% in 2015 versus 3.4% growth of Relative to last year, the outlook for advanced economies is improving, while growth in emerging market and developing economies is projected to be lower, primarily reflecting weaker prospects for some large emerging market economies and oil-exporting countries. Factors like lower oil prices, exchange rate swings, and country/region specific factors have affected the global activity in 2014 and are still shaping the outlook. US is projected to grow ~3% in 2015 with domestic demand supported by lower oil prices and an accommodative monetary policy. Growth in eurozone is showing signs of pick up, supported by lower oil prices, lower interest rates and weaker euro. Emerging markets may have a sub duded growth rate largely due to a sharp drop in oil prices and lower prospects from larger emerging

12 markets and the growth rate may drop to ~4% as projected by IMF. Despite this slowdown, emerging markets are still accounted for three fourth of the global growth on Overall growth is projected to reach 3.5% to 3.8% in 2015 and Disclaimer: This document is prepared by our research analysts and it does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. Firstcall Research or any of its affiliates shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Firstcall Research and/ or its affiliates and/or employees will not be liable for the recipients investment decision based on this document.

13 Firstcall India Equity Research: C.V.S.L.Kameswari Pharma & Diversified U. Janaki Rao Capital Goods B. Anil Kumar Auto, IT & FMCG M. Vinayak Rao Diversified G. Amarender Diversified Firstcall Research Provides Industry Research on all the Sectors and Equity Research on Major Companies forming part of Listed and Unlisted Segments For Further Details Contact: Tel.: / / Telefax: / info@firstobjectindia.com