100% Organic Egypt Study Executive Summary

Transcription

1 Soil & More International B.V 100% Organic Egypt Study Executive Summary March

2 Executive Summary This is an executive summary of the 100% organic study carried out by Soil & More International B.V. It is structured as follows: After an introduction to the topic, a short overview of tools and standards, as well as assumptions used for this study is provided. Then, results are presented. The last page contains information on how to proceed should one be interested in ordering the entire version of this study. Introduction The introduction of new technologies has led to a tremendous growth of the agricultural sector. But the related cost, though sometimes hidden, is significant. Typical consequences of intensive agriculture practises are top soil depletion, groundwater pollution and scarcity, increasing cost production and socio-economic instability. In that regard, organic agriculture is becoming more and more important especially as soil organic matter (SOM) plays a key role in sustainable agriculture in terms of ecology and farm economics. Therefore, Soil & More International conducted a study with the aim to find out which agricultural system conventional or organic - will be more sustainable in the long run with regards to both, ecological and economic performance. The indicators used for the study are 1) carbon and water footprints, 2) farm economics. The study was carried out in Egypt, assessing the following crops: cotton, maize, potatoes, rice, sugar beet, sugarcane and wheat. Egypt s agriculture is highly influenced by climate change and water availability. The area of the Nile valley and delta had already been used for intensive agriculture for many decades before the Egyptian government started to heavily promote the expansion of agricultural land into the new lands located in the desert about 20 years ago. Ever since, the reclamation of land has been a priority for Egyptian authorities. As a result of intensive agricultural practices, soil fertility and yields have declined whilst the burden of subsidies on the Egyptian government has increased during the last decades. However, the socio-economic instability has remained the same. In that regard, it comes as no surprise that organic agriculture as an alternative farming system is becoming more and more popular in Egypt. The agricultural inputs needed for organic farming practises are not subsidized. Yet, they help improve the soil structure, maintain water quality, increase soil organic matter, increase biodiversity and gradually increase the yields and decrease the total cost to produce one tonnes of crop. This is even more important as the Egyptian agriculture will increasingly face impacts related to climate change, such as rising sea levels, higher temperatures, a decrease in availability of arable land and increased water requirements to produce crops. Given that in Egypt, almost 95% of the water is sourced from outside the country; climate change affecting other countries may also affect water availability in Egypt. The 100% Organic Egypt study conducted by Soil & More aims to find out which agricultural system organic or business as usual - will be more sustainable in the long run with regards to both, ecological and economic performance. The indicators used for the study are 1) carbon and water footprints as well as 2) farm economics. The seven [2]

3 strategically most important crops for Egypt s agricultural sector (cotton, maize, potatoes, rice, sugar beet, sugarcane and wheat) were assessed for both organic and business as usual farming practices, under different irrigation systems and where applicable for old (Nile Delta and Valley) as well as new (reclaimed desert) land. In the following a short overview of tools and standards, as well as assumptions used for this study is provided. Tools and standards: The carbon footprint of both, conventional and organic farms, was calculated using the Cool Farm Tool which was developed by the Sustainable Food Lab and is supported by Unilever. Calculations of water footprints were carried out according to the standards of the Water Footprint Network and include the grey, blue and green water footprint. The blue and green water footprint was calculated by tools like ClimWat and CropWat based on evapotranspiration whereas the projected climate change impacts were assumed based on overall evapotranspiration rates and rainfall. To determine the farm economics part, actual costs of agricultural inputs for producing one tonne of crop were used, taking into consideration government subsidies, water tax and carbon tax but excluding subsidies on seeds and pesticides. Assumptions: The gross yield of seven strategic crops in conventional and organic farming systems were used for the study. For conventional farming systems, fertilizer application from was assumed based on data provided by the Egyptian Agriculture Research Centre 2010/11. No increase in yield was projected from for such farming systems, whereas the chemical fertilizer application per acre was assumed to increase by 1.5%/annum from Pesticide application and amounts for different crops in conventional systems were assumed to stay the same from year 2010 to year Percentages of carbon sequestration and increase of organic matter values in both old and new lands were based on the findings of a study by B. Luske and J. van der Kamp. 1 Using the Cool Farm Tool, a default Tropical Climate was assumed (18 0 C). In the sequestration sheet the compost and crop residue incorporation were assumed to be applicable since 1 year to 100% of the assessed ared. It was assumed that there were no further changes in land use management. In the CROPWAT model the initial soil moisture depletion (as % total available moisture) was kept at 100% for non-rice crops to compare organic and conventional farming systems water requirements. For rice crops, it was kept at 0% as normally the rice fields are flooded before sowing. It was also assumed that irrigation 1 (2009: B. Luske and J. van der Kamp: Carbon sequestration potential of reclaimed desert soils in Egypt. Louis Bolk Instituut, Driebergen & Soil and More International, Waddinxveen). [3]

4 application in the field was done when the soil reached a critical depletion point. Irrigation was assumed at a fixed depth (mm). For the projection , the price of Ammonium Nitrate in Egypt was assumed to be the same as the global ammonium fertilizer price. Latter was projected by using the world natural gas price as a factor because it is the main ingredient to produce ammonium fertilizer and covers 93% of total cost of production (Taylor and Koo, 2006). The Egyptian Ammonium Nitrate price was calculated by using the same relative percentage increase in natural gas price projected by the International Energy Agency (IEA) till 2020 published in the world energy report (2009). The data on the global price for phosphorous and potassium fertilizer for the past 10 years was obtained from Potash Corp, one of the leading potash and phosphate fertilizer companies. For the projection , the trend of the global phosphorous fertilizer price of the past 10 years was continued by using a linear regression equation. Then, the same relative percentage increase of world phosphate fertilizer was assumed for the projection of Egyptian phosphate fertilizer from For the projection of seed, pesticide, machinery, labor, land rent and other cost, the cost trend of the past 10 years was continued by using a linear regression equation. The projected values were kept at same levels for both organic and conventional farming systems. For the projection of the electricity prices, the price trend of the past 10 years was continued by using a linear regression equation. Projected values were kept at same levels for both organic and conventional farming systems. For the projection of the diesel prices, the increase in world crude price projected by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in the world energy report (2009) was used, keeping the same relation factor between the global crude price and Egyptian diesel price for the past 10 years. Results The results clearly show that already on mid-term, organic farming practices are economically more feasible than business as usual farming system. This is especially true for a country like Egypt, where a lack of natural resources goes hand in hand with a steadily increasing population. Soil organic carbon plays a key role in agriculture economics as it influences productivity, water holding and nutrient exchange capacity. Due to this sustainable or organic agricultural systems should be promoted and implemented as soil organic carbon levels are significantly higher in these systems. The carbon footprint of organic farming systems is significantly lower than the one of conventional systems for all 7 strategic crops growing in both old land and new land. The total water footprint is higher in the business as usual scenario in all 7 strategic crops, which means that an organic farming system requires less water to produce a tonne of crop. [4]

5 Results in graphs Cotton Maize Potatoes Rice [5]

6 Sugar beet Sugarcane Wheat [6]

7 Interested in this, or a similar study? The full version of this study is available and can be acquired as explained below. Moreover, we as Soil & More offer to carry out a similar study adjusted to specific customer requirements and needs which will be defined beforehand. Such a study could, for instance, be carried out for different countries and crops, but also on a corporate level. For more information on how to proceed for a customised offer, please see below. To order the full report of the study, please proceed as follows: Step 1: Payment Procedure: Transfer 25 to the following bank account: Account holder: Bank: Bank Identifier Code: IBAN: Soil & More International BV ABN AMRO Bank ABNANL2A NL95ABNA Please make sure to leave the following reference: Organic Study Egypt + your name. Example: if your name was Mr. Thomas Winter, you would need to write: Organic Study Egypt Mr. Thomas Winter Step 2: Notifying Soil & More International: Please send an to info@soilandmore.com, using the same reference as mentioned under point 1. You may also notify us by telephone: +31 (0) Step 3: Delivery of Study: We will send you a digital copy of the report as soon as we have received your payment. For more information, please don t hesitate to contact: Miss Karin van den Oever (for administrative issues and general questions as to the procedures): karin.vandenoever@soilandmore.com, +31 (0) [7]