MAKING SENSE OF THE 2016 ELECTION

Transcription

1 The National Association of Business Political Action Committees MAKING SENSE OF THE 2016 ELECTION PRESENTED BY: Jeffrey Horwitt/Hart Research Ph:

2 The wealth of US families has fallen sharply over the past decade. Median net worth of families, in 2014 dollars Source: PEW Research, 12/9/ $77, $82, $116, $137, $83, $82,756 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 2

3 Change: you can t always get what you want. ELECTION The economic and political systems are stacked against people like me. 47% 54% 55% 54% Outcome DEM control House/Sen DEM wins presidency GOP control of House DEM wins presidency GOP control of Senate Donald J. Trump THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 3

4 The Political Mood in % say that the country is off on the wrong track. 69% feel ANGRY because our political system seems to only be working for the insiders with money and power, like those on Wall Street or in Washington, rather than it working to help everyday people get ahead. 57% want to give a new person a chance rather than feel that their member of Congress deserves to be reelected, and 52% would vote to defeat EVERY member of Congress. 55% say there is something that upsets them enough that they would carry a protest sign for a day. 54% believe the economic and political systems in the country are stacked against me. THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 4

5 Both nominees had historic negatives, but Trump s were worse. Election Year GOP Candidate % Negative DEM Candidate % Negative 2016 Trump 62% H. Clinton 50% 2012 Romney 44% Obama 43% 2008 McCain 39% Obama 34% 2004 Bush 43 44% Kerry 43% 2000 Bush 43 30% Gore 37% 1996 Dole 38% B. Clinton 33% 1992 Bush 41 46% B. Clinton 37% THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 5

6 Type of President I want someone who will bring major changes to the way government operates even if it is not possible to predict what the changes may be May 2016 Registered Voters July 2016 Likely Voters Sept 2016 Nov 2016 I want someone who will bring a steady approach to the way government operates even if it means fewer changes to how things are now THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 6

7 State Capitols: The Establishment Vs. Us Voted for Clinton Voted for Trump 54% 39% 44% 50% Vote in state capitol counties Vote across the states THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 7

8 Obama Coalition & The Clinton Coalition % of electorate Obama margin 2012 Clinton margin to 29-year-olds 19% 19% African Americans 13% 12% Hispanics 10% 11% White women college grads 18% 20% White men non-college grads 16% 17% THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 8

9 Share of the Rural Vote for Democratic Presidential Candidates 44% 44% 45% 32% 39% 37% 40% 37% 34% THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 9

10 State Case Study Turnout Margins WI MI PA URBAN % of electorate 2016 % of electorate 2012 % Clinton Vote 2016 % Obama Vote % 26.0% 68.5% 68.8% 30.0% 30.9% 59.8% 64.5% 22.2% 22.9% 69.8% 71.7% SUBURBAN % of electorate 2016 % of electorate 2012 % Clinton Vote 2016 % Obama Vote % 51.1% 40.1% 45.5% 55.5% 54.7% 44.7% 51.2% 70.9% 70.3% 42.9% 47.3% RURAL % of electorate 2016 % of electorate 2012 % Clinton Vote 2016 % Obama Vote % 22.9% 38.9% 50.9% 14.5% 14.4% 31.8% 43.5% 7.0% 6.8% 25.0% 34.4% THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 10

11 The Mighty Mississippi MN IA MO AR LA WI IL MS TN KY Won Lost Obama Bush Clinton Reagan Carter Nixon 1968* 6 1 Kennedy 1960* 5 4 * In 1968 George Wallace took MS, AR & LA; in 1960 MS did not go to any candidate; in 1948 Strom Thurmond won MS & LA. THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 11

12 Congress If a Republican candidate for Congress says they do not support Donald Trump for President, I would be: More likely to vote for them Less likely to vote for them Makes no difference to me 56% 61% I am more likely to vote for: A Republican candidate who will be a check-and-balance to Hillary Clinton and Congressional Democrats 51% 26% 16% 12% 25% A Democratic candidate who will help Hillary Clinton and Congressional Democrats pass their agenda 40% All voters Republicans THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 12

13 News Media and Election Coverage In the election campaign this year, do you think the news media mostly gave fair and balanced coverage, or mostly tried to influence the elections with their coverage? Total tried to influence: 66% Total tried to influence: 42% Total tried to influence: 92% 85% 1996 VNS Exit Poll Fair and balanced 44% Tried to influence 56% Mostly fair and balanced coverage 44% 50% Mostly tried to influence elections for Trump 29% 9% 13% 16% 16% 11% 6% 1% 6% All voters Clinton voters Trump voters Mostly tried to influence elections for Clinton Mostly tried to influence/depends on the media source (VOL) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 13

14 Feelings toward James Comey and the FBI James Comey The FBI Positive feelings Negative feelings 49% 38% 15% 24% 31% 27% 19% 27% 30% 30% 24% 5% July 2016 July 2016 July % 27% 50% 14% 31% 39% All voters Democrats Republicans All voters Democrats Republicans 14 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 14

15 Feelings toward Candidates among their Voters 70% I believe he/she would be a good president 52% 46% I'm not sure - better than the alternatives I do NOT believe he/she would be a good president 28% 2% 1% Trump voters Clinton voters THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 15

16 Mandate? Clinton won the popular vote by 667, % of voters believe the U.S. should join treaty to fight global warming. 65% support coverage for people with pre-existing conditions. 63% favor increasing taxes on wealthy Americans and large corporations in order to reduce income inequality. 60% say illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay and eventually apply for citizenship. (63% oppose a wall.) 59% favor allowing same-sex marriages. 58% believe that abortion should be legal. 50% say that free trade agreements between the US and other countries have been a good thing (42% bad thing). THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 16