Global Subsea Market Outlook from an Asia Pacific Perspective

Transcription

1 Global Subsea Market Outlook from an Asia Pacific Perspective 4th Asian Subsea Conference and Exhibition Prepared by Kian Zi Chew Douglas-Westwood Singapore

2 Douglas-Westwood Our Business offshore onshore downstream Established 1990 Aberdeen, Canterbury, London, Singapore & Houston Activity & Service Lines Business strategy & consulting Commercial due-diligence Market research & analysis Published market studies Large, Diversified Client Base 1000 projects, 600 clients, 80 countries Leading global corporates Energy majors and their suppliers Investment banks & PE firms Government agencies power LNG LNG renewables

3 Transaction Support: Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A and LBOs) Financing Facilities (inc. MBOs) Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)

4 Douglas-Westwood Research

5 Macro-Economic Environment Offshore Market Outlook Subsea Market Review Conclusions

6 Global Energy Demand Outlook Primary energy demand is the prinicple indicator for all oil & gas related expenditure. Global demand is expected to grow by 41% between 2012 & Population growth projected at 24% for the same period. Energy intensity per capita is growing btoe 17.6btoe 8.1btoe Global Primary Energy Demand BP Energy Outlook 2035

7 Global Energy Demand Outlook Asian Import Dependence 22% 47% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80% -90% -100% Asia China India Japan S. Korea 40% 22% 5% 4% 2% % of global energy demand (2013) Gas Balance Oil Balance Asian % Share of Global Demand Asian Import Dependency Asian population and economic the major driver behind projected global energy demand surge. Asia will account for 47% of global demand by 2035 compared to 22% in However, Asia is major importer of oil & gas, in particular oil which has a regional import/export balance of -71%. China s oil imbalance is currently estimated at -58%. Major global economies such as Japan and S.Korea are almost exclusively reliant on external oil & gas.

8 Global Energy Demand Outlook Growing Importance of Gas 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 42% 51% 6,000 mtoe 5,000 4,000 Oil Increase 20% 50% 3,000 40% 30% 2,000 20% 10% Power Transport Industry 1,000 Gas Increase 55% 0% Global Energy Demand by Sector Global Energy Demand by Fuel The combination of increased energy efficiency throughout OECD states and growing economies in Asia is driving demand for power generation at the expense of transportation. Natural gas is becoming an increasingly popular fuel for power generation offering a relatively safe (compared to nuclear); cheap (compared to oil); and clean (compared to coal) energy source. Demand for natural gas to increase by 55% over the next 20 years...

9 Brent $/bbl Oil Supply Outlook Prices & Sanctioning $160 $140 DW expects oil prices to straddle the $90-$100/bbl mark for the next five years. The majority of major projects will be viable at these levels. Duvernay Shale $120 Only arctic and some shale projects will be threatened. Prirazlom $100 $80 Approval threshold Based on anticipated oil price levels Block 18 West Lucapa Papa Terra Egina $60 nt Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) se se Cepu Mars B $40 $20 Block 18 West Lucapa Papa Terra Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) EIA High Case EIA Low Case $ Cepu Mars B Egina Breakeven Price ($/bbl) Oil Price Outlook and Impact on Offshore Project Sanctioning

10 $/mmbtu Gas Supply Outlook Prices & Sanctioning US Japan (LNG) UK Europe Unlike oil the gas market has a more regional pricing structure due to historical geographical supply limitations. Up to 2008 regional prices typically trended together however the flooding of US shale gas between and rapid demand growth in North Asia post Fukoshima have created massive price disparity globally. With the US poised to become a major exporter of natural gas via LNG over the next ten years most analysts expect a gradual convergence of regional pricing. 4 2 Significant short-mid term arbitrage opportunities for North American gas producers Regional Gas Prices Influx of US exports is creating uncertainty in project sanctioning for gas projects in exporting nations such as Australia (see Browse).

11 Upstream Cost Index $/bbl Industry Challenges Cost Inflation $120 $ Upstream Capital Costs Oil Price Upstream Capital Cost Index vs Oil Price BP, CERA $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Upstream capital costs have increased by over 200% since Whilst costs rose rapidly in line with oil prices during they remained high during the oil price crash of High industry costs are an increasing concern for oil & gas companies and the profitability of their new projects.

12 Macro-Economic Environment Offshore Market Outlook Subsea Market Review Conclusions

13 Global Supply Outlook The Role of Offshore Offshore and natural gas becoming increasing important to global hydrocarbon supply over the next ten years. 200mn boepd 70mn boepd 70mn boepd 180mn 160mn 60mn 60mn 140mn 50mn 50mn 120mn 40mn 40mn 100mn boepd 30mn 30mn 20mn boepd 20mn boepd Offshore Onshore Deep Shallow Offshore Gas Offshore Oil Global Oil & Gas Production Global Offshore Production Global Offshore Production

14 Offshore E&P Spend $211.9 billion spent in 2011 unprecendented levels of expenditure. An additional $1.4 trillion to be spent over the next five years at a CAGR of 7.7%. 76% of anticipated expenditure to be associated with shallow water over $350 $306.8 $300 $250 $211.9 $200 $150 $100 $50 $ Offshore E&P Expenditure Outlook ($billions)

15 Offshore E&P Spend by Segment $1.4 trillion Offshore E&P Expenditure by Segment

16 Offshore E&P Spend Regional Breakout Western Europe 19% Others 2% Africa 14% $1.4 trillion South - East Asia 17% North America 20% Latin America 13% Rest of Asia 7% Australasia 3% Middle East 5% Offshore E&P Expenditure by Region

17 Others $billions Asia-Pacific $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Shallow Deep APAC is a large, mature and predominantely shallow water area controlled by NOCs. 58% of demand accounted for by three largest countries (India, China & Malaysia). The region will account for 30% of fixed platform expenditure more than any other. Brunei 2% Darussalam Myanmar 2% 1% 60 Australia India 6% 25% APAC Offshore E&P Spend Thailand 7% Viet nam 10% Russian Federation Indonesia 12% New Zealand 1% Malaysia 13% Sri Lanka 1% East Timor 1% China 19% APAC Drilling Rig Demand by Operator APAC Drilling Rig Demand by Country

18 Others $billions Middle-East $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Shallow Deep The Middle East is a mature, shallow water market. Activity is concentrated in the Persian Gulf, particulary throughout Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Despite limited growth in E&P expenditure strong drilling growth will drive demand for OSVs Middle East Offshore E&P Spend Qatar 11% Egypt 7% Saudi-Kuwait Neutral Zone 2% Oman 1% Saudi Arabia 45% Middle East Offshore Drilling by Contractor Iran 14% 0 UAE 20% Middle East Drilling Rig Demand by Country

19 $billions Latin America $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Shallow Deep The Latin American E&P landscape is dominated by NOCs such as Petrobras in Brazil and Pemex in Mexico. Deepwater rig requirements are expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.8% over the next five years to support ultra-deep pre-salt developments offshore Brazil Latin American Offshore E&P Spend Mexico 36% Venezuela 3% Trin. & Tobago 2% Ecuador 1% Brazil 58% Latin America Drilling Rig Demand by Operator Latin America Drilling Rig Demand by Country

20 ARENA Tana Cardon Others $billions North America $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Shallow Deep The US Gulf of Mexico is the world s largest shallow water basin by installed infrastructure. Over the next five years both shallow and deepwater drilling are expected to pick up with Jack-ups experiencing a CAGR of 3.2%. The deepwater industry is dominated by major IOCs whereas the shallow water market is highly fragmented North America Offshore E&P Spend Canada 3% US 97% North America Drilling Rig Demand by Operator North America Drilling Rig Demand by Country

21 Talisman Others $billions North Sea $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Shallow Deep Given the maturity of the basin, shallow water drilling is expected to decline at a compound rate of 4.6%. Increased exploration in deeper areas will drive floating rig demand at a CAGR of 2.8% These deepwater campaigns will be dominated by larger oil companies such as Statoil, BP and Shell North Sea Offshore E&P Spend UK 38% Netherlands 11% Denmark 6% Norway 45% North Sea Drilling Rig Demand by Operator North Sea Drilling Rig Demand by Country

22 Macro-Economic Environment Offshore Market Outlook Subsea Market Review Conclusions

23 Global Subsea Expenditure Outlook 27.1bn 28.5bn usher in a stepchange in subsea expenditure - $213 bn of investment over the next five years compared to $122 bn over the previous period. This change is largely driven by the increasing reliance on deepwater developments. Subsea hardware is expected to account for 55% while vessel operations account for the remaining 45% Offshore Drilling Trends Fixed Platform Installations Floating Platform Installations 1 Deepwater Drilling (Indexed to 2007) Shallow Water Drilling (Indexed to 2007)

24 Strong growth in subsea hardware spend Picture: FMC Worldwide expenditure to total $117bn over the period. (83% growth on the previous five years) 49% Subsea production hardware 36% SURF (subsea umbilicals, risers & flowlines) 15% Trunk pipelines

25 World Subsea Hardware N America $17bn UK & Norway $24bn Africa $21bn Asia $16bn S America $19bn 40% Subsea production hardware 32% SURF (subsea umbilicals, risers & flowlines) 26% Trunk pipelines

26 Deliveries Subsea vessel deliveries PipeLay ReelLay FlexLay DSV MSV Subsea Vessel Deliveries The build cycle is undoubtedly cooling off now Strong demand demand for larger, technically advanced vessels Potential orderbook of $5-6 billion over the next few years

27 $billions Subsea vessel operations market outlook Global market to see a CAGR of 10% to exceed $22 billion by Largest growth from vessels supporting deepwater developments. L. America to grow from 27% & Africa to 38% of demand between now & North America 21% Western Europe 19% others 6% Latin America 19% Africa 15% Asia 16% Australasia 4% $ $ Subsea Vessel Demand Outlook

28 Regional Subsea Profiles Asia Asian subsea expenditure to total $32bn over the next five years 15% of global demand. Investment is trending away from conventional shallow water infrastructure and towards subsea and deep waters. The future of the subsea industry is top-heavy with 65% of forecast demand accounted for by the top five E&P co s. Subsea Hardware accounts for 52%, vessel operations for 48% Major investment in manufacturing capacity already occuring in the Asian region to ready for growing deepwater demand. Subsea Expenditure Subsea Tree Installation Vessel Demand Analysis >2000 4% 16% 5.0bn % 16% < Field Development IRM Trunklines Subsea Intervention

29 Macro-Economic Environment Offshore Market Outlook Subsea Market Review Conclusions

30 Conclusions Macro-economic Environment: 1. Long term fundamentals of the oil & gas industry remain highly robust. 2. Key industry risks include rising costs and manpower. Offshore Market 1. $1.4 trillion of anticipated spend on the offshore E&P industry over the next five years. 2. Continued trends towards deepwater developments, while shallow water continue to account for the majority of expenditure. Subsea Market: 1. Long-term growth potential, particularly in Africa, Asia-Pacific and Brazil. 2. At a price, and as a result our study shows the sector has become a very sizable opportunity for the oilfield service and equipment community.

31 Questions?