History and perspective of air quality in Milan and the Po Valley: scientific and management challenges

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1 History and perspective of air quality in Milan and the Po Valley: scientific and management challenges Guido Lanzani Head of Air Quality Unit Environmental Monitoring Area ARPA Lombardia Sandro Finardi ARIANET Gian Luca Gurrieri Head of Air Quality, Climate, Environ. sustainability Unit Lombardia Region 10 th International Conference on Air Quality: Science and application Milano March 15, 2016

2 Milano and Lombardia: Where and how many Lombardia Region Inhabitants: 9,9 milion Population density: 419inab/km2 Inhabitants: 3,6 milion Milan conurbation Population density: 3.141inab/km2 Po Valley: closed by mountains exceeding 2500 m a.s.l. on three sides Meteorological conditions often adverse to air pollution dispersion History and perspective of air quality in Milan the Po Valley andimportant regional background (old and secondary). Guido Lanzani Sandro Finardi - Gian Luca Gurrieri Milano March 15,

3 Meteorological conditions often adverse to air pollution dispersion Lack in wind Lack in wind Frequent very stable thermal conditions comparison 20 years annual comparison average wind 20 years annual average wind Milano - Linate December 2015 Monthly mean temperature and humidity at 12:00 GMT Frequent very stable thermal conditions History and perspective of air quality in Milan and the Po Valley Guido Lanzani Sandro Finardi - Gian Luca Gurrieri Milano March 15, 2016 MI-Linate December 2015 Monthly mean temperature and humidity at 12:00 GMT 3

4 Meteorological conditions often adverse to air pollution dispersion Lack in wind comparison 20 years annual average wind Frequent very stable thermal conditions History and perspective of air quality in Milan and the Po Valley Guido Lanzani Sandro Finardi - Gian Luca Gurrieri Milano March 15, 2016 MI-Linate December 2015 Monthly mean temperature and humidity at 12:00 GMT 4

5 Air Quality Concentrations are decreasing but: Widespread exceedances of PM10 daily limit (50 ug/m3) ( every year) NO2 annual limit exceedances, especially in traffic stations (annual mean in city from 39 to 62 µg/m3) B(a)P standard non achieved where wood burning is more diffuse (outside downtown) Widespread exceedances of both health and vegetation Ozone protection standards (above) 5

6 Annual mean PM Po Valley Po Valley from 2015 EEA Air Quality Report In Po Valley PM2.5 concentrations are often above 25 ug/m3 and don t show important differences among type of stations 6

7 A (quite) common winter day PM10 daily concentration 500 km Limito (great Milan): 126 µg/m3 Ponti (rural bck): 123 µg/m3 Venice: 158 µg/m3 Torino: 132 µg/m3 Pavia: 131 µg/m3 Mantova: 156 µg/m3 PM10 daily concentrations are very similar in the whole Po Valley, also in suburban and rural background stations Air quality data sharing platform /thanks to ARPA Emilia Romagna Piemonte, Liguria, Trentino, 7 Veneto, Friuli Venezia Giulia

8 93.2 percentile of O3 maximum daily 8-hours mean in 2013 Po Valley from 2015 EEA Air Quality Report In Po Valley frequent and widespread exceedances of health and Vegetation protection standards are registered 8

9 Milan PM composition Urban background station annual average PM10 PM2.5 from AIRUSE LIFE+ project 9

10 Milan PM composition Urban background station annual average PM10 PM2.5 from AIRUSE LIFE+ project The scale of secondary PM is the whole basin Local actions are not very effective It is necessary to limit precursors emissions Often difficult to be modelled 10

11 Lombardia Region Emission Inventory 2012 Sector NOx NH 3 PM10 CO 2 eq Energy production and refineries 6.2% 1.5% 18% Residental combustion 10% 0.2% 45% 24% Industrial combustion 15% 0.5% 4.3% 12% Production processes 2.2% 4.9% 5.6% Extracton and distribution of fuels 2.7% Solven use 0.1% 4.0% 3.0% Road Transport 52% 1.1% 25% 23% Other mobile sources 11% 0.00% 3.0% 1.9% Waste treatment and disposal 2.9% 0.5% 0.4% 4.5% Agriculture 0.7% 98% 6.7% 11% Other sources and sinks 0.1% 5.9% -6.0% 97% from wood Fonte: INEMAR - ARPA Lombardia(2015), INEMAR, Inventario Emissioni in Atmosfera: emissioni in Regione Lombardia nell'anno 2012 dati finali. ARPA Lombardia Settore Monitoraggi Ambientali. 11

12 Primary PM10 emissions by fuel (tons/year) 45% 14% 13% 22% 22% 21% 12

13 Emissions comparison Lombardia - UE27 average Lombardia - UE27 average Comparison SO2 NOx CO NH3 PM10 PM2.5 CO2 eq per capita -78% -29% -32% 35% -29% -21% -9% per GDP -82% -42% -45% 11% -42% -35% -25% Sources EU-27 Emissions GHG EU-27 emissions GDP EU-27 EU-27 population &tableSelection=1&footnotes=yes&labeling=labels&plugin=1 13

14 Air Quality modelling in Po Valley and Lombardia Region Many different air quality modelling studies have been dedicated / included Po Valley: Among those performed in the last decade: Thunis et al., Atm. Env., 2007; Vautard et al., Atm. Env., 2007; Angelino et al., Env. Model. Assess., 2008; Carnevale et al., Env. Model. Assess., 2008; Silibello et al., Env. Model. Soft., 2008; de Meij et al., Atm. Env., 2009; Lonati et al., Atmos. Res. 2010; Pernigotti et al., Atm. Env., 2012; Mircea et al., Atm. Env., 2014; Finardi et al., Urb. Climate, 2014; Mircea et al., AAQM, 2016 Model intercomparisons focused on or including Po Valley (CityDelta, POMI, EuroDelta, ) EU and national projects including Po Valley (GEMS/MACC, MEGAPOLI, CityZen, MINNI...) 14

15 Air Quality modelling in Po Valley and Lombardia Region PM often underestimated, in particular during winter, despite broad spectrum of models and different emission inventories. Possible reasons meteorological modelling: Overestimation of wind speed and atmospheric dispersion, Poor performance of surface/boundary layer turbulence parametrizations in low wind conditions, air quality modelling: coarse resolution inadequate treatment of the formation of secondary organic and inorganic aerosol, emission inventories: underestimated some activity sectors From Pernigotti et etal., 2012 From Lonati et al.,

16 Air Quality modelling in Po Valley and Lombardia Region PM often underestimated, in particular during winter, despite broad spectrum of models and different emission inventories. Possible reasons meteorological modelling: Overestimation of wind speed and atmospheric dispersion, Poor performance of surface/boundary layer turbulence parametrizations in low wind conditions, air quality modelling: coarse resolution inadequate treatment of the formation of secondary organic and inorganic aerosol, emission inventories: underestimated some activity sectors From Pernigotti et al., 2012 From Lonati et al.,

17 Local inventory, high res. and diagnostic meteorology improve results for PM2.5 and PM components Increasing resolution: from 20 to4kmgridsize MINNI PROJECT Mircea et al (AAQR, in press) Impact of Grid Resolution on Aerosol Predictions: A Case Study over Italy 20 km PM10 PM10 4 km 20 km PM10 4 km PM10 PM Fract. Bias PM10-0,09-0,02 Fract. Bias PM2.5 0,11 0,17 Gridsize4km Diagnostic meteorology reduced wind overestimation Local bottom-up high resolution inventory From: C. Colombi, E. Peroni et al EAC

18 Local inventory, high res. and diagnostic meteorology improve results for PM2.5 and PM components Increasing resolution: from 20 to4kmgridsize 20 km PM10 PM10 4 km PM10 MINNI PROJECT Mircea et al (AAQR, in press) Impact of Grid Resolution on Aerosol Predictions: A Case Study over Italy Gridsize4km Diagnostic meteorology reduced wind overestimation Local bottom-up high resolution inventory From: C. Colombi, E. Peroni et al EAC

19 Models are a key instrument in supporting policy development and enforcement Examples Scenario studies supporting Air quality plan Ammonia / NOx emissions reduction influence over the Po Valley: Not obious considering what is the limiting factor Agriculture Stakeholders produced autonomous evaluations PM2.5 Scenario -25.0% NH 3 From Angelino E. et al., Ammonia and Nitrogen emissions reduction influence on air quality over the Po Valley Air Quality Conference

20 PRIA: Regional plan of actions on air quality TRANSPORT AND MOBILITY 40 measures Big LEZ: limitations up to euro 3 diesel cars Area C in Milan centre Bikes and car sharing 2 new underground lines Highway speed limits reduction (under study) STATIONARY SOURCES 37 measures Promotion of energy efficiency and rational use of energy Wood combustion rules and limitations Industrial plants and waste treatment: BAT and limitations to resettle of new plants AGRICULTURAL AND BREEDING SECTOR 14 measures Anaerobic digestion of manure and direct injection in the field examples 20

21 Conclusions Despite the improvements, in Lombardia and Po Valley air quality is still poor, above all for PM and ozone Orographic and meteorological condition play a crucial role although emissions are not higher than in other developed areas Secondary PM is prevalent on primary one; to obtain improvements it is necessary to act both on primary and precursors pollutant emissions on the whole Po Valley (500 km long) Traffic, wood burning, agriculture and industry all must be considered in policies against air pollution In the past PM was often underestimated by air quality and scenario studies in Po Valley Air quality modelling shows important improvements and it is an important tools in evaluating the results of policies Air quality plan define a path for improvement even if actions are necessary at all the levels: local, regional, national, European 21

22 Thank You for Your attention