Export Statistics Scotland 2014

Transcription

1 Export Statistics Scotland 2014 Release Date: 27 January 2016 Key findings The total nominal value of Scotland s International Exports (excluding Oil and Gas) decreased in the last year, falling by 920 million (3.2%) from 28.4 billion in 2013 to 27.5 billion in Between 2010 and 2014 international exports increased by 4.0 billion (17.3%), increasing from 23.4 billion in 2010 to 27.5 billion in In the latest year exports have continued to increase in businesses classed in the service sector (up 0.6%) and the other 1 sector (up 16.2%). Manufacturing business exports, which account for more than half of all exports, declined in the last year by 8.7%. In 2014, the largest exporting industry is manufacture of food products and beverages ( 4.8 billion, 17.3% of all exports) 2. The second largest industry is Legal, accounting, management, architecture, engineering, technical testing and analysis activities ( 2.3 billion, 8.5% of all exports), followed by the manufacture of refined petroleum and chemical products ( 2.1 billion, 7.8% of all exports), Mining and Quarrying ( 1.9 billion, 6.9% of all exports) and Wholesale and retail trade ( 1.8 billion, 6.5% of all exports). Together the top 5 industry sectors account for around 47 per cent of total international exports from Scotland. In 2014 (42%) of international exports were destined for countries within the European Union (estimated at 11.6 billion). Within the EU, the Netherlands was the largest market, followed next by France and then Germany. 1 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Mining and Quarrying, Utilities and Construction. 2 It should be noted some other food and drink commodities are also included in wholesale and fisheries Industrial Sectors. 1

2 The USA is Scotland s top international export destination country (as in the last 13 years) with an estimated 4.0 billion exports in 2014, an increase of 54 million (1%) since Netherlands is Scotland s second top export destination country with an estimated 1.9 billion exports in 2014, a decrease of 526 million (22%). France is Scotland s third top export destination country with an estimated 1.9 billion exports in 2014, a decrease of 162 million (8%). The Netherlands and Belgium are consistently reported in Scotland s top trading partners, however as these countries contain key ports many of these goods are for onward supply to other countries. Exports to Europe and key European port countries in the last year are affected by the fall in exports from the refined petroleum sector. The top five international export markets (USA, Netherlands, France, Germany, and Norway) accounted for 10.8 billion of international exports (39 per cent of all international exports) from Scotland. Exports to the rest of UK (from Scotland) in 2014 (excluding oil and gas) are provisionally estimated at 48.5 billion, an increase of 1.5 billion (3.2%) over the year. Service sector exports are of greater importance to the rest of UK than internationally billion (56%) of rest of UK exports are attributable to service sector companies compared with 38% ( 10.5 billion) of international exports. Total international and rest of UK exports in 2014 (excluding oil and gas) are provisionally estimated at 76.0 billion an increase of 570 million (0.8%) from 75.4 billion in Rest of UK exports account for 64% of all exports from Scotland (international and ruk combined). About this publication This bulletin presents estimates of the nominal value of international and rest of UK exports for all sectors of the Scottish economy from 2002 to This publication was formerly named the Global Connections Survey. The new name reflects the range of official information incorporated to produce these export estimates. This is the thirteenth year of publication. Figures are presented in nominal terms throughout the main publication and so are not adjusted for inflation. A time series of total exports adjusted for inflation is included for the first time as an experimental statistical series in Annex A. The estimates in this publication are based on the completed survey returns from 1,664 businesses in Scotland to the 2014 Global Connections Survey. Further estimates for businesses based in Scotland for export value and turnover are sourced from UK wide official sources and administrative sources. Information from 2002 is provided in the accompanying excel tables. The industry definitions relates to the Standard Industrial Classification of the reporting company. 2

3 Contents Export Statistics Scotland International Exports Scotland s International Export Destinations Exports to the rest of the UK Total Exports from Scotland: Rest of UK and International exports Exports by Size of Company Comparability of Scottish International Exports Sources Comments Background notes Annex A: Volume Index of Export Statistics (Experimental Statistics)

4 1. International Exports Overview of International Exports The nominal value of international exports decreased in each year between 2002 and 2005, falling by 1.9 billion (9.2%) from 20.2 billion to 18.3 billion in From 2005 to 2013 the nominal value of international exports increased in each year. It is estimated that the nominal value of international exports has decreased in the last year, falling by 920 million (3.2%) from 28.4 billion in 2013 to 27.5 billion in In the latest year exports have continued to increase in businesses classed in the service sector and the other sector. However, manufacturing businesses, which account for more than half of all international exports, declined in the last year by 8.7%. The total value of Scotland s international exports increased by 4.0 billion (17.3%) between 2010 and 2014 increasing from 23.4 billion in 2010 to 27.5 billion in Chart 1: Total International exports Exports ( billion) Total International Exports Manufacturing International Exports Services International Exports Other International Exports Year Source: Export Statistics Scotland 2014 Note: Other International Exports includes: SIC Agriculture, forestry and fishing, 5-9 Mining and Quarrying, Utilities, Construction 4

5 International Exports by Industry In 2014, the largest exporting industry was manufacture of food and beverages ( 4.8 billion, 17.3% of all exports). Exports for SIC 2007 Distilling Rectifying and blending of spirits account for 3.95 billion (83% of all manufacture of food and beverage exports in 2014). The second largest industry is Legal, accounting, management, engineering, architecture, technical testing and analysis activities ( 2.3 billion, 8.5% of all exports), followed by the manufacture of refined petroleum and chemical products ( 2.1 billion, 7.8% of all exports), Mining and Quarrying ( 1.9 billion, 6.9% of all exports) and Wholesale and retail trade ( 1.8 billion, 6.5% of all exports). The top 5 industry sectors account for around half (47%) of all international exports. Chart 2: Scotland s top 5 International Exporting Industries Exports ( billion) Food & drink 4.8 Professional Services 2.3 Petroleum & Chemicals 2.1 Mining 1.9 Wholesale Source: Export Statistics Scotland 2014 Note: Professional Services Legal, accounting, management, architecture, engineering, technical testing and analysis activities, Other International Exports includes: SIC Agriculture, forestry and fishing, 5-9 Mining and Quarrying, Utilities, Construction Key: Manufacturing Services Other 5

6 International Exports for Manufacturing and Service Industries Overall in 2014 manufacturing industry companies account for 51.9% of all international exports. Exports from the service sector have had increasing importance in recent years, accounting for 38% of all exports in 2014 compared with 24% in In the last year exports from the manufacturing sector industries decreased by 1.4 billion (8.7%) to an estimated 14.3 billion. For services sector businesses exports increased by 60 million (0.6%) to 10.5 billion. Within the manufacturing sector, exports of manufactured food and drink are estimated to have decreased by 250 million (5%) from 5.0 billion in 2013 to 4.8 billion in Exports from the whisky industry alone are estimated at 4.0 billion, having decreased by 310 million (7%) over the year. The manufacture of refined petroleum and chemical products sector is estimated at 2.1 billion having decreased by 730 million (25%) since This decrease in nominal value of exports in this sector in part reflects a decrease in relevant commodity price. The largest annual increase in the nominal value of exports in the manufacturing sector was in Machinery and equipment which increased 435 million (33%) from 1.3 billion in 2013 to 1.7 billion in

7 Chart 3: International Exports ( billion) by Industry Mining 1.9 Other 0.8 Food & drink 4.8 Other service 3.0 Trans & storage 0.9 Finance 1.2 Business 1.3 Wholesale 1.8 Professional Services 2.3 Other Manufacturing 3.4 Petroleum & Chemicals 2.1 Machinery 1.7 Computer 1.1 Trans equip 1.1 Key: Manufacturing Services Other Source: Export Statistics Scotland 2014 Note: Professional Services Legal, accounting, management, architecture, engineering, technical testing and analysis activities, Other International Exports includes: SIC Agriculture, forestry and fishing, 5-9 Mining and Quarrying, Utilities, Construction Within the service sector, legal, accounting, management, architecture, engineering, technical testing and analysis activities is worth 2.3 billion and is the largest international exporting service. This is followed by wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (estimated at 1.8 billion) and Administrative and support service activities ( 1.3 billion). The largest annual increase in the nominal value of exports from the services sector was in Accommodation and food service activities which increased 115 million (40%) from 290 million in 2013 to 405 million in

8 Exports ( billions) Exports ( billions) Trends in International Exports by Industry: Nominal Value of exports and % of all exports Manufacture of food and beverages This sector has been the top exporting industrial sector in Scotland since 2005, accounting for 17.3% of international exports in The nominal value of international exports increased from 2004 to 2013 but decreased by 250 million (5%) in the last year. In 2014 exports from Distilling, rectifying and blending of spirits account for 83% of manufacture of food and drink exports. Between 2002 and 2006 the pace of growth was slower than between 2007 and Chart 4 Manufacture of food and beverages Professional Services - Legal, accounting, management, architecture, engineering, technical testing analysis The second largest exporting sector in Scotland and the largest business group in the services sector is Professional Services. This sector accounts for 8.5% of all exports. The nominal value of exports from this sector decreased between 2002 and 2004, and then increased in each year until However, exports have declined in the last year between 2013 and Chart 5 Professional Services

9 Exports ( billions) Computer, Electronic and Optical products Since 2002 the largest absolute change within a particular industry sector has been in Computer, electronic and optical products. In 2002 exports in this sector were estimated at 5.6 billion when this sector accounted for 28% of all exports. Chart 6 Computer, Electronic and Optical products In 2014 exports from this sector totaled 1.1 billion (4% of all Scotland international exports)

10 Table 1: Total International Exports by industry ( million) SIC 2007 Division million change % change Rank Total International Exports 26,485 26,870 28,415 27, , 2, 3 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing ,6, 7,8,9 Mining and Quarrying 1,725 1,575 1,645 1, Manufacturing Manufacture of... 10, 11, 12 Food products, beverages and tobacco products 4,905 5,025 5,015 4, Of Which Distilling, rectifying and blending of spirits 4,225 4,275 4,260 3, , 14, 15 Textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products , 17, 18 Wood and paper products; printing and reproduction of recorded media 19, 20 Coke, refined petroleum and chemical products 3,390 2,905 2,875 2, Basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations 22, 23 Rubber and plastic products, and other non-metallic mineral products 24, 25 Basic metals and fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 26 Computer, electronic and optical products 1,385 1,400 1,600 1, Electrical equipment Machinery and equipment NEC 1,035 1,235 1,300 1, , 30 Transport equipment 930 1,025 1,250 1, , 32 Other manufacturing: including furniture Repair and installation of machinery and equipment Total Manufacturing 14,915 15,035 15,630 14,270-1, , 36, 37, Utilities , 39 41, 42, 43 Construction Services 45, 46, 47 Wholesale 1, retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and 1,545 1,720 1,800 1, ,50,51,52, Transportation and storage , 56 Accommodation and food service activities , 59, 60 Publishing, audiovisual and broadcasting activities Telecommunications , 63 IT and other information services , 65, 66 Financial and insurance activities 1,645 1,390 1,245 1, Real estate activities ,70, 71 Legal, accounting, management, architecture, engineering, 1,940 2,275 2,570 2, technical testing and analysis activities 72 Scientific research and development , 74, 75 Other professional, scientific and technical activities ,78,79,80, Administrative and support service activities 900 1,015 1,225 1, ,82 85 Education ,87,88,90, Other Services ,92,93,94, Total Services 9,180 9,575 10,455 10, Notes: 1. Wholesale figures include the wholesale of agricultural products, fish and crustaceans molluscs 2. Other services; included the following activities: health and other community activities, social and personal service activities 3. Industry grouping are based on the Industrial Classification of the reporting company 4. All % change calculations are based on unrounded data 10

11 2. Scotland s International Export Destinations Exports by country should be treated with some caution. Less information is provided by companies on country of export compared with total export value. International Exports by broad industry Group and Region of destination 42 per cent of exports were destined for countries within the European Union (estimated at 11.6 billion). Over the year exports to the EU 28 declined by 985 million (7.8%) from 12.5 billion in 2013 to 11.6 billion in Table 2: Scottish International exports by sector and trade area ( million) 2014 EU28 % of all EU Non-EU % of all non-eu Total exports % Unallocated Total Exports 1 11,560 15,170 27, Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Production 2, 3 & Construction 7, , , of which manufacturing 6, , , Services 3, , , Notes: 1. Total Exports does not equal the sum of EU28 and non-eu. This is because EU28 and non-eu estimates exclude exports from some industries SIC , 37, 39, 50, 51, 64 and 65, whereas the Total exports column includes these sectors in the figures. 2. Includes manufacturing, mining & quarrying and utilities. 3. Excludes the value of oil & gas extracted from the UK Continental Shelf, see notes. 11

12 Scotland s International Exports by region The largest value of exports from Scotland to one region are exported to the EU 28. The next largest region is North America at 4.4 billion (16% of all exports) followed by Asia 2.9 billion (11% of all exports). Over the year to 2014 exports grew for; Central and South America, North America and Rest of Europe. Figure 1: Scotland International exports by region 2014 Table 3: Total international exports by geographic region million Destination change % change % of all European Union 28 10,420 12,280 11,980 12,545 11, Rest of Europe 2,075 2,050 2,135 2,390 2, North America 3,545 3,820 4,200 4,310 4, Central and South America 940 1,405 1,375 1,435 1, Middle East 1,190 1,230 1,465 1,770 1, Asia 2,415 2,695 2,820 3,010 2, Africa 1,325 1,355 1,365 1,550 1, Australasia Unallocable 1,130 1, Total 23,445 26,485 26,870 28,415 27, Notes: 1. The estimates for regions exclude exports from SIC , 37, 39, 50, 51, 64 and The unallocable row includes exports which have not been allocated to a region 3. All % change calculations are based on unrounded data 12

13 Top country export destinations The USA continued to be Scotland s top export destination country with an estimated 4.0 billion of exports from Scotland (14.5% of total exports). This is followed by Netherlands 1.9 billion (6.8% of the total), France with 1.9 billion (6.8 % of the total) and Germany with 1.8 billion (6.7% of the total). The top 10 export destinations accounted for 54 per cent of total international exports. Figure 2: Top 5 export destinations Note: The estimates for countries exclude exports from SIC , 37,39,50,51,64 and 65. Table 4: Top 20 export destinations ( million), 2014 Rank Destination Total Exports % of all Rank Destination Total Exports % of all 1 USA 3, Belgium Netherlands 1, Italy France 1, China Germany 1, Singapore Norway 1, Australia Eire 1, Canada Brazil Other Africa (6) Spain Sweden Denmark Switzerland UAE (5) Japan Note: The estimates for countries exclude exports from SIC , 37,39,50,51,64 and 65. The Netherlands and Belgium are consistently reported in Scotland s top trading partners, however as these countries contain key ports many of these goods are for onward supply to other countries. 13

14 Total exports to countries within the top 3 regions Chart 7: EU (Exports million) Netherlands 1,880 France 1,860 Germany 1,845 Eire 1,125 Spain ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Chart 8: North America (Exports million) USA 3,985 Canada ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Chart 9: Asia (Exports million) China 530 Singapore ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 14

15 3. Exports to the rest of the UK Rest of UK export estimates should be treated with caution. It is more difficult to ascertain the final destination of sales within the UK as companies have no statutory requirement to collate financial information below UK levei. Furthermore, particular sectors face challenges in determining what constitutes an export. In an Intra-UK situation, this is particularly the case in the service sector where output is harder to quantify and the residence of the final consumer may be less clear. Exports by sector Chart 10: International and rest of UK exports, % in Manufacturing and Services 2002 and % 90% 80% Other Services Other Other Other 70% Services 60% 50% Services Services 40% 30% 20% 10% Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing 0% International Exports Rest of UK Exports Source: Exports Statistics Scotland Exports to the rest of the UK have continued to increase in the last year, increasing 1.5 billion (3.2%) from 47.0 billion in 2013 to 48.5 billion in This is due to increases in the manufacturing sector ( 20 million) and the service sector ( 1.8 billion). 15

16 Services account for a greater proportion of all exports to rest of the UK compared with international exports. In 2014 services accounted for 56% of all rest of UK exports compared with 38% of international exports. The 5 largest industry groups for ruk exports were: Financial and insurance activities ( 7.4 billion), Wholesale, retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles ( 6.6 billion), Utilities ( 4.8 billion), Manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco ( 4.0 billion), and Legal, accounting, management, architecture, engineering, technical testing and analysis activities ( 3.5 billion). In the last year the largest increases, in the nominal value of exports, were in the following industry sectors: Wholesale, retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 820 million), Administrative and support service activities (up 440 million), and Legal, accounting, management, architecture, engineering, technical testing and analysis activities (up 435 million). 16

17 Table 5: Rest of UK Exports by Industry ( million), million SIC 2007 Division change % change Rank Notes: Total rest of UK Exports 44,285 45,475 47,035 48,525 1, , 2, 3 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing ,6, 7,8,9 Mining and Quarrying 2,765 2,745 2,790 3, Manufacturing Manufacture of... 10, 11, 12 Food products, beverages and tobacco products 3,555 3,760 4,065 4, Of Which Distilling, rectifying and blending of spirits , 14, 15 Textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products , 17, 18 Wood and paper products; printing and reproduction of , 20 Coke, refined petroleum and chemical products 1,870 1,610 1,595 1, Basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical , 23 Rubber and plastic products, and other non-metallic mineral , 25 Basic metals and fabricated metal products, except machinery Computer, electronic and optical products Electrical equipment Machinery and equipment NEC , 30 Transport equipment 1,360 1,490 1,170 1, , 32 Other manufacturing: including furniture Repair and installation of machinery and equipment Total manufacturing 11,180 11,285 11,155 11, , 36, 37, 38, 39 Utilities 4,820 4,930 5,630 4, , 42, 43 Construction 1,445 1,525 1,630 1, Services 45, 46, 47 Wholesale 1, retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and 5,830 5,670 5,785 6, motorcycles 49,50,51,52,53 Transportation and storage 2,085 2,350 2,185 2, , 56 Accommodation and food service activities , 59, 60 Publishing, audiovisual and broadcasting activities Telecommunications , 63 IT and other information services ,285 1, , 65, 66 Financial and insurance activities 8,285 7,115 7,125 7, Real estate activities ,70, 71 Legal, accounting, management, architecture, engineering, 2,315 2,805 3,085 3, Scientific research and development , 74, 75 Other professional, scientific and technical activities ,78,79,80,81,82 Administrative and support service activities 1,455 2,235 2,805 3, Education , 87, 88, 90, 91, 92, Other Services , 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99 Total Services 23,345 24,185 25,125 26,970 1, Wholesale figures include the wholesale of agricultural products, fish and crustaceans & molluscs. 2. 'Other Services' includes the following activities: Health and other community activities, social and personal service activities. 3. Industry grouping are based on the Industrial Classification of the reporting company. 4. All % change calculations are based on unrounded data 17

18 4. Total Exports from Scotland: Rest of UK and International exports The combined value of international and rest of UK exports in 2014 (excluding oil and gas) are provisionally estimated at 76.0 billion billion is attributable to service sector companies and 25.4 billion is attributable to manufacturing sector companies. 64 per cent of all exports from Scotland were to the rest of the UK. Table 6: Total exports (Rest of UK and International) by industry, million SIC 2007 Division Notes: 1. Wholesale figures include the wholesale of agricultural products, fish and crustaceans & molluscs. 2. 'Other Services' includes the following activities: Health and other community activities, social and personal service activities. 3. Industry groupings are based on the Industrial Classification of reporting company. 4.. All % change calculations are based on unrounded data change % change Rank Total rest of UK and international exports 70,765 72,345 75,450 76, , 2, 3 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 1,015 1, , ,6, 7,8,9 Mining and Quarrying 4,485 4,325 4,435 5, Manufacturing 0 Manufacture of , 11, 12 Food products, beverages and tobacco products 8,455 8,785 9,080 8, Of Which Distilling, rectifying and blending of spirits 4,840 4,795 4,845 4, , 14, 15 Textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products , 17, 18 Wood and paper products; printing and reproduction of recorded media 1,285 1,270 1,275 1, , 20 Coke, refined petroleum and chemical products 5,260 4,520 4,470 3, Basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations , 23 Rubber and plastic products, and other non-metallic mineral products 1,200 1,240 1,295 1, , 25 Basic metals and fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 1,215 1,315 1,295 1, Computer, electronic and optical products 2,025 2,085 2,180 1, Electrical equipment Machinery and equipment NEC 1,425 1,655 1,830 2, , 30 Transport equipment 2,290 2,510 2,420 2, , 32 Other manufacturing: including furniture Repair and installation of machinery and equipment 890 1,015 1, Total manufacturing 26,095 26,315 26,785 25,450-1, , 36, 37, 38, 39 Utilities 5,105 5,285 5,960 5, , 42, 43 Construction 1,540 1,605 1,720 1, , 46, 47 Services 0 Wholesale 1, retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 7,375 7,390 7,590 8, ,50,51,52,53 Transportation and storage 2,930 3,070 3,125 2, , 56 Accommodation and food service activities 1,250 1,305 1,080 1, , 59, 60 Publishing, audiovisual and broadcasting activities Telecommunications , 63 IT and other information services 1,215 1,500 1,840 2, , 65, 66 Financial and insurance activities 9,935 8,505 8,370 8, Real estate activities ,70, 71 Legal, accounting, management, architecture, engineering, technical testing and analysis activities 4,255 5,080 5,655 5, Scientific research and development , 74, 75 Other professional, scientific and technical activities ,78,79,80,81,82 Administrative and support service activities 2,355 3,245 4,030 4, Education 965 1,040 1,045 1, ,87,88,90, 91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99 Other Services Total Services 32,525 33,760 35,575 37,485 1,

19 Exports ( bn) 5. Exports by Size of Company International Exports by size of company Larger companies employing more than 250 employees export the most, estimated at 15.0 billion in Large companies account for 55% of all international exports. The Production and Construction sector accounts for 54% of the total value of international exports and 64% of exports from this sector are from large businesses. International exports from medium sized companies increased by 75 million (1%) since Exports declined in small and large businesses. In the last year it is evident that large businesses in the Production and Construction sector experienced the largest decrease. Chart 11: International Exports by size of business Small 15 Medium 10 5 Large Source: Exports Statistics Scotland Note: Size of business is based on employment in Scotland. Table 8b and 9b in the additional excel tables shows results for UK employment for

20 Table 7: Total International Exports by Broad Industry Sector and Size of Company, change % change Primary 2 1,570 1,915 1,720 1,815 2, Large 835 1,195 1,070 1,265 1, Medium Small Production 3 & Construction 13,580 15,290 15,470 16,055 14,740-1, Large 9,300 10,645 10,365 10,515 9,430-1, Medium 3,360 3,585 3,845 4,590 4, Small 920 1,065 1, Services 8,225 9,180 9,575 10,455 10, Large 3,155 3,825 3,870 4,100 4, Medium 1,935 2,095 2,140 2,250 2, Small 3,135 3,255 3,565 4,105 3, Total Exports 4 23,445 26,485 26,870 28,415 27, Total Large 13,290 15,665 15,305 15,875 15, Total Medium 5,835 6,125 6,450 7,290 7, Total Small 4,250 4,590 5,005 5,155 4, Notes: 1. Company size based on employment of company in Scotland: Small: <50 employees; Medium: employees; Large: 250+ employees. 2. Includes Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, Mining, Quarrying & Extraction of Petroleum. Excludes the value of oil & gas extracted from the UK Continental Shelf, see Notes. 3. Includes manufacturing and electricity/gas/water supply. 4. Includes some companies with exports but no reported employment details. 5. All % change calculations are based on unrounded data Rest of UK Exports by size of company Larger companies employing more than 250 employees export the most to the rest of the UK. Exports to the rest of the UK from larger companies were estimated at 28.5 billion in 2014 (59 per cent of all rest of UK exports). Rest of UK exports from larger sized companies increased by 590 million (2.1%) from 28.0 billion in 2013 to 28.5 billion in Rest of UK exports from small sized companies increased by 180 million (1.9%) from 9.6 billion in 2013 to 9.8 billion in

21 Table 8: Total Rest of UK Exports by Broad Industry Sector and Size of Company, million change % change Primary 2 3,545 3,465 3,530 3,480 3, Large 2,715 2,435 2,600 2,375 2, Medium Small Production 3 & Construction 16,595 17,450 17,740 18,415 17, Large 11,345 12,090 12,120 12,670 11, Medium 3,635 3,490 3,710 3,945 3, Small 1,615 1,870 1,915 1,800 1, Services 24,145 23,345 24,185 25,125 26,970 1, Large 14,430 12,585 12,685 12,915 13, Medium 4,110 5,145 4,810 4,985 5, Small 5,605 5,610 6,695 7,225 7, Total Exports 4 44,300 44,285 45,475 47,035 48,525 1, Total Large 28,495 27,110 27,400 27,955 28, Total Medium 8,035 9,035 8,895 9,450 10, Total Small 7,755 8,120 9,155 9,610 9, Notes: 1. Company size: Small: <50 employees; Medium: employees; Large: 250+ employees. 2. Includes Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, Mining, Quarrying & Extraction of Petroleum. Excludes the value of oil & gas extracted from the UK Continental Shelf, 3. Includes manufacturing and electricity/gas/water supply. 4. Includes some companies with exports but no reported employment details. Concentration of International Exports The concentration of international exports is skewed with around 30 per cent of international exports attributable to around 15 businesses; 50 per cent of international exports attributable to around 70 businesses, and 60 per cent of international exports attributable to around 130 businesses. 21

22 6. Comparability of Scottish International Exports Sources There are 4 main sources related to exports from Scotland as summarised below. Charts 12, 13 and 14 show how these compare with Export Statistics Scotland. Table 9: Sources of Export Statistics for Scotland Source Published Estimates Detail Timeliness SG Export Statistics Scotland Value of International exports Value of Rest of UK exports. Other associated barriers and assistance information Export Country and Region and Annual Latest publication Industry of Jan 2016 for SG Quarterly National Accounts Scotland HMRC Regional Trade Statistics SG Index of Manufactured Exports SG Supply and Use tables Value of International and Rest of UK exports from Scotland (Import Statistics are also reported) consistent with annual national accounts estimates of exports and imports in the SG Supply and Use tables Export value for commodity export sales Internationally. Other estimates are published for Imports, number of importers and exporters Growth in international goods sales from Scottish Manufacturing businesses in constant prices A short term economic indicator derived from the Office of National Statistics Monthly Business Survey returns for manufacturing businesses located in Scotland. Value of Rest of UK and Rest of World exports export 2014 Exports No breakdown Latest Quarterly results Nov 2015 for Q Country Commodity type Manufacturing Industry breakdown Annual estimates by 98 product groups (CPA 2008) Quarterly Latest publication Dec 2015 for Q Quarterly Latest publication January 2016 for Q Latest annual results for 2012 (published July 2015) 22

23 Compared with HMRC and Quarterly National Accounts Export Statistics Scotland estimate is largely based on the GCS Survey and estimates provided through other official sources as outlined in Table 11. ESS reports the nominal value of goods exported (i.e the nominal value of goods physically exported), and services exported from Scotland. Information is presented broken down by industry group of the business responding to the survey. The questions in the GCS survey to collect nominal value of export have remained unchanged since it began in Scottish Government national accounts statistics (annual Supply & Use tables and Quarterly National Accounts Scotland) reports estimates of exported goods and services which are consistent with trade definitions applied in the European System of Accounts 2010 (ESA10). One feature of this definition is that exports and imports are now defined on a change of ownership basis, where, for example, goods which are manufactured under contract from a non-resident owner are no longer counted in exports (but a processing service fee is counted instead). The value of exports measured on a change of ownership basis can differ from that measured on a physical flows basis. The national accounts estimates of trade statistics are based on ESS results which are adjusted to meet the conceptual definitions of ESA10, and also subject to other adjustments required to ensure that total supply and demand for products in the Scottish economy are balanced. HMRC statistics measure trade in goods only, with goods broken down by product type and do not include service exports. This is only broadly comparable with the Manufacturing and Production SIC 2007 Industry sectors from the Export Statistics Scotland estimates shown below. Since 2005, the Exports Statistics Scotland Manufacturing and Production data are lower than the HMRC Regional Trade in Scotland estimate, although follow a similar pattern over time. The Quarterly National Accounts cash price value of total international exports is lower than the total GCS estimate of exports. The QNA estimate also shows a decline in exports between 2011 and 2012 compared with Export Statistics Scotland which has increased in each year since 2004 to 2013, declining between 2013 and

24 millions Chart 12 Scottish International Exports 2002 to ,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Year Quarterly National Accounts Export Statistics Scotland Export Statistics Scotland - Manufacturing and Production HMRC Regional Trade for Scotland Source: Export Statistics Scotland, HMRC RTS, SG Quarterly National Accounts 24

25 millions HMRC Regional Exports of Goods HMRC Regional Trade Statistics (HMRC RTS) estimates a decrease in exports for all devolved countries between 2013 and 2014, after a period of sustained increase between the years 2004 to Chart 13: HMRC UK Regional Trade in Goods 2002 to ,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Year Northern Ireland Scotland Wales Unknown Region Source: HMRC Regional Trade Statistics HMRC RTS present some export information in an Unknown region in cases where there is an absence of a strong case to allocate value of goods to any one region. An example of this is where oil is processed on rigs in the North Sea and dispatched directly to other countries, the oil does not enter the UK and therefore does not obtain a regional coding. This category is significant in terms of the value of trade falling within it. In 2014 the Unknown region represented 37.3 billion, almost 2 times the value attributed to Scotland ( 19.6 billion) and 13 per cent of the total UK exports figure for 2014 ( 287 billion). Regional value exports are also affected by bias toward reporting at head office level. Although an adjustment is made for this, this this does not fully mitigate the issue. 25

26 million Rest of UK Exports The SG Quarterly National Accounts provides an estimate of rest of UK exports. These results are modelled estimates compared with the survey based estimates from company responses reported in Export Statistics Scotland. The Quarterly National Accounts estimates compared with Export Statistics Scotland are similar. The national accounts estimates of exports to RUK are based primarily on results from ESS. Chart 14: Rest of UK exports: Quarterly National Accounts and Export Statistics Scotland 2002 to ,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Year Export Statistics Scotland Quarterly National Accounts Source: Quarterly National Accounts Q2 2015, Export Statistics Scotland

27 7. Comments 284 companies (18 per cent of all respondents) provided a commentary within the survey form. Table 10: Respondent comments No. of responses Do not export 79 Survey not relevant 77 Organisational structure of the company 33 Request electronic facility to submit form 13 Accounting issues 12 Issue with splitting Scotland figures from ruk 9 Lack of data 9 Other 52 The most common comment was that the company did not export with 79 responses. Some of those who indicated they did not export supplemented their comment with the observation that their products were unsuitable for international trade. Others indicated that often their customers subsequently exported their goods. The second most common comment was that the survey was not relevant to their business with 77 comments. In some cases this may be due to a misunderstanding of the definition of exports particularly for the service sectors and for business from Scotland to the rest of UK. Comments relating to organisational structure of the company refer to situations where companies are part of large international corporations, possibly functioning as a subsidiary or a franchise operation within Scotland. The Scottish part of the business may not know the sales figures or be able to split Scottish figures from the UK company account or be able to influence the company strategy for exporting. Nine companies mentioned how difficult it was to split Scottish sales from UK sales or had difficulty determining visitor s normal place of residence (particularly for the retail and hospitality sectors). For those companies having difficulty splitting Scottish sales from UK sales, this was mostly because accounting was done at a UK level. 27

28 8. Background notes These statistics have been prepared by the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser, Scottish Government in collaboration with Scottish Development International. The most recent results should be treated as provisional and may be subject to future revisions. 8.1 Sources and Methodology The Global Connections Survey (GCS), which is sent to businesses each year by the Scottish Government, informs much of the estimates of International Exports published in this report and is the only source for estimates of exports from Scotland to the rest of the UK. Further to the GCS, relevant estimates for businesses in Scotland are also sourced from official and administrative sources produced by the Office for National Statistics and other parts of the Scottish Government. 1,664 responses were obtained from the Global Connections Survey. A further 1,643 responses were obtained from the ONS Monthly Business Survey or ONS International Trade in Services. These sources are used to estimate export values and/or proportions. Turnover is sourced for most companies from the Inter- Departmental Business register. Other sources are also used in different sectors as outlined in Table

29 Table 11: Sources to produce Export Statistics Scotland Estimate Variable Sources Description Link International and rest of UK exports Global Connection s Survey Turnover Service sector international exports Inter- Departmen tal Business Register (IDBR) Internation al Trade in Services A sample of 5,500 businesses operating in Scotland were invited to participate in this voluntary survey, and completed responses were received from around 1,700 companies. We would like to thank all of the companies that responded to the survey and all those who have been involved in the survey for their help and advice including: Scottish Development International and Highlands & Islands Enterprise. The IDBR is used as the sampling frame for the Export Statistics Scotland publication. This source is compiled by ONS. The IDBR is also the source of turnover estimates for most business sectors. A link to further information on this source can be found on ONS web site: For service sector organisations where no GCS response was received (but the business responded to the ONS International Trade in Services survey) then international exports are estimated from this source. For businesses located across the UK the export estimate is based on employment proportions. SG ONS ONS Manufacturing sector international exports Monthly Business Survey The most recent estimates for 2013 were used in 2014: For manufacturing sector organisations, where no GCS response was received, but the business responded to the ONS short-term Monthly Business Survey then international exports are estimated from this source. businesses/a-to-z-of-business-surveys/monthly-business-survey--production-and-services- /index.html ONS 29

30 International export values for SIC Distilling, rectifying and blending of spirits International and rest of UK export values for SIC Marine fishing Turnover and international/re st of UK export values for SIC 85.4 Higher education EU/rest of World export proportions for SIC 85.4 Higher education Turnover and international/re st of UK export values for SIC HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics Scottish Sea Fisheries Statistics Higher Education Institution annual reports HESA student number SG Banking Survey Estimates of international whisky exports are sourced from HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics based on the export values for Scotch Whisky Commodities reported to HMRC. Commodity codes included for : , , , , , Commodity codes included for : , , , , , , Estimates of international and rest of UK marine fishing exports are sourced from the SG Marine Scotland publication Scottish Sea Fisheries Statistics. Exports are estimated using the value of landings by Scottish vessels in Tables 1.1b and 1.3: Estimates of turnover and international/rest of UK higher education exports are sourced from Higher Education Institution annual reports. Student numbers by Higher Education Institute and domicile for the academic years 2008/09 to 2013/14 are provided by HESA. This data is used to determine the proportions of international exports to the EU and the rest of the World. For 2011 to 2014 the information is based on a Scottish Government collection of total sales and sales to non-uk resident customers for the four largest organisations in this sector. HMRC SG N/A HESA SG 30

31 Banking Information on exports for the banking sector prior to 2011 were based on export sales information provided by The Committee of Scottish Clearing Bankers (CSCB), now The Committee of Scottish Bankers. The Committee of Scottish Clearing Bankers also provided a split of international and rest of UK sales. Rest of UK export proportions for SIC 35 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply Departmen t for Energy and Climate Change Estimates were obtained from the publication below: Scottish Enterprise Account Management Information is also used to identify exporters DECC 31

32 Timescale for data collection Timescales for Global Connections Survey Data Collection and processing 2014 The Export Statistics Scotland is produced in the following timescales: Table 12: Timetable for collection of data sources for Export Statistics Scotland Date Task Dec 2014 Receipt of IDBR for 2014 extract 26 th Jan 2015 Global Connections Survey 2013 published Feb 2015 Publication of International Trade in Services Information Feb 2015 Publication of 2014 HMRC Overseas Trading Statistics Feb 2015 SG receipt of ONS Monthly Business Survey Feb 2015 Publication of HESA 2014 Student Numbers Feb-Apr 2015 Global Connections Survey 2014 sampling and development of survey material 18 th May 2015 Mail out of Global Connections 2014 survey 22 nd Jun nd Mail out of Global Connections survey Jul-Aug 2015 Further contact with business Aug 2015 Receipt of Scottish Government Banking Information 28 th Aug 2015 Mail data collection closes Sep 2015 Publication of Marine Scotland Information Sep-Jan 2016 Quality assurance and preparation of publication Dec 2015 Receipt of DECC information Jan 2016 Publication of Export Statistics Scotland

33 8.2 Definitions Industrial classification This publication provides export estimates for companies classified by the 2007 UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) of economic activities. The 2007 classification system was used for the first time in the 2011 publication. Prior to this results were based on the 1992 and 2003 classifications. The 2010 survey results were remapped and an impact document was provided to alert users to the changes in the 2011 survey: ction/gcsimpactsic2007. Throughout the commentary in this publication, SIC 1-3, SIC 5-9, SIC and SIC are classed as 'Other' industries, SIC are classed as 'Manufacturing' industries and SIC are classed as 'Services' industries. Exports of oil and gas from the UK continental shelf Total Scottish exports do not include any exports of oil and gas extracted from the UK continental shelf, and so exclude companies classified as SIC Extraction of crude petroleum and 6.2 Extraction of natural gas. Exports of services provided to the oil and gas industry are included under SIC Support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction, 9.9 Support activities for other mining and quarrying and 71 Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis. The Scottish Government has published experimental estimates of the value of exports of oil and gas and the offshore economy: Regional and country estimates - industry coverage Destination estimates exclude SIC Water collection, treatment and supply, 37 Sewerage, 39 Remediation activities and other waste management services, 50 Water transport, 51 Air transport, 64 Financial services activities, except insurance and pension funding and 65 Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security. This is due to a lack of reliable company information for these industries. The total for these is shown as unallocable in Table 3. Therefore, rankings of individual countries should be treated as indicative. 33