Sweden - Åland Finland Hyperloop Market analysis approach
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1 Sweden - Åland Finland Hyperloop Market analysis approach Dr Yaron Hollander April 2016
2 Our task We help understand the market Various sources of demand - some conventional, some unique Demand scenarios & supply scenarios We estimate demand & revenue separately for each A set of generalised cost models We have to devise parameter values from multiple sources for the current stage
3 Demand sources Stockholm- Helsinki air market Cargo Trips via airports Local rail travel Existing Åland locals Inland suburbanisation Leisure cruise Booze cruise New residential development in Åland New business & leisure development in Åland
4 Largest unknowns (1) Nature and magnitude of new development in Åland. Business, Leisure There is considerable potential we need to predict how large the change will be Residential
5 ? Largest unknowns (2)?? Evidence of cultural trends: - Going on cruises - Weekend /weekday drinking - General wealth?
6 Largest unknowns (3) Market share for long-distance commuting (Uppsala to Stockholm, Turku to Helsinki, Salo to Helsinki) First time ever commuting time will have to drop! People will probably travel more
7 Largest unknowns (4) Station structure and cost Spread of stations Boarding arrangements Feeding arrangements from other modes UX (app user experience) High-quality UX is a key part of the experience of a seamless journey No doubt this will affect demand
8 Inland suburbanisation Continuing to work in the Capitals but living much further Travel from Uppsala, Turku or Salo to Stockholm / Helsinki and back every day The choice is between moving to these cities (without changing jobs) or continuing to live near the Capitals Markets: Stockholm to Uppsala Helsinki to Turku Helsinki to Salo Demand scenarios: People travel same time as today People spend less time travelling Capitals get less attractive Special items in the generalised cost: Cost of housing Quality of housing and neighbourhood Supply scenarios: Hyperloop frequency / journey experience / boarding experience
9 New Åland attractors Travel between anywhere in Sweden/Finland and Åland The choice is between travelling to Åland or doing something else close to home Hyperloop trip is return, infrequent Markets: Business headquarters or back offices Family leisure Casino resort Demand scenarios: Only leisure Only business Both Special items in the generalised cost: Quality of the business/leisure attractors Family experience Supply scenarios: Hyperloop frequency Journey experience Boarding experience
10 New Åland commuting Travel from Åland to Stockholm / Helsinki and back every day The choice is between moving to Åland (without changing jobs) or continuing to live near the Capitals Markets: People currently living in the city People already living in suburbs Demand scenarios: As now City jobs dispersal City stations not central Special items in the generalised cost: Cost of housing Quality of housing and neighbourhood Supply scenarios: Hyperloop frequency Journey experience Boarding experience
11 Leisure cruise Cruise to port cities with a one-way Hyperloop trip The choice is between travelling one-way on Hyperloop or continuing by boat only Markets: Shorter cruise Longer cruise Demand scenarios: As today Cruise culture declines People get wealthier Special items in the generalised cost: Having a good time on the boat Saving time by Hyperloop Getting to the boat vs Hyperloop Price of boat vs Hyperloop Supply scenarios: Journey experience Boarding experience
12 Booze cruise Cruise with a one-way Hyperloop trip The choice is between travelling one-way on Hyperloop or continuing by boat only Markets: Shorter cruise (one day) Longer cruise (weekend) Demand scenarios: As today Drinking culture declines People get wealthier Special items in the generalised cost: Having a good time on the boat Saving time by Hyperloop Getting to the boat vs Hyperloop Price of boat vs Hyperloop Supply scenarios: Journey experience Boarding experience
13 Initial indicative insight People will probably travel more between Stockholm and Helsinki Likely diversion from air, for travel between the Capitals Within each country, some diversion from cheaper rail is likely Some suburbanisation in Stockholm & Helsinki is likely New developments in Åland seems very likely Possible extended reach of one-day booze cruise Current Finnish rail fares are low so highly competitive Dependency on local behavioural insight is high. Future work will require local research
14
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