Impacts of Climate Change on Fish Biodiversity Patterns in European Waters

Transcription

1 Impacts of Climate Change on Fish Biodiversity Patterns in European Waters K. Kaschner J. Rius Barile, K. Kesner-Reyes, E.J. Laxamana, J. Ready, S.O. Kullander, T. Rees & R. Froese Evolutionary Biology & Ecology Lab, Albert-Ludwigs-University Freiburg, Germany Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov 2009

2 Outline AquaMaps: what is it and how does it work? How good are AquaMaps? Can we use AquaMaps to investigate impacts of climate change?

3 AquaMaps: what is it & how does it work?

4 AquaMaps: what is it? Kaschner et al, 2008 & Ready, Kaschner et al, 2010 Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov 2009

5 AquaMaps: what is it?...to produce computer-generated, reproducable species range maps for (evenually) all species using available data and a transparent, easily understandable and modifiable approach, so maps can be reviewed and improved by species experts.

6 AquaMaps: what is it?! current taxonomic coverage: > 9000 species " fishes " marine mammals " marine turtles " invertebrates " algae

7 AquaMaps: what is it?! very large / global scale! low temporal resolution (annual average)! can deal with data poor species! can deal with imperfect input data

8 AquaMaps: how does it work? Van den Berge, 2009 ( > 19,000,000 species occurence records in OBIS > 0.3 potentially > 1.0 million marine species Problems:! data paucity per species! sampling biases! species mis-identifications Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov 2009

9 AquaMaps: how does it work? Van den Berge, 2009 ( > 19,000,000 species occurence records in OBIS > 0.3 potentially > 1.0 million marine species! need to maximize use of alternative sources of information about habitat usage Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov 2009

10 AquaMaps: how does it work? Solea solea Common Sole

11 AquaMaps: how does it work? Species Distribution Models

12 AquaMaps: how does it work? Species Occurrence Records FishBase / SeaLifeBase Solea solea Common Sole (n = 141)

13 max AquaMaps: how does it work? Environmental envelopes (except depth) Probability 0 Absolute Min Observed min Preferred Range Absolute Max Environmental layer values Observed max IQR = interquartile range

14 AquaMaps: how does it work? Environmental Layers Bathymetry Temperature Sea surface temperature (SST) for pelagic species (0-200 m) Bottom temperature for non-pelagic species (>200 m) Salinity Sea surface salinity for pelagic species Bottom salinity for non-pelagic species Primary production Sea Ice Concentration Distance to land (for special cases)

15 AquaMaps: how does it work? Slide: courtesy J.Ready

16 AquaMaps: how does it work? Solea solea Common Sole Ready et al, 2010

17 Validation: How good are AquaMaps?

18 AquaMaps: does it work? Validating individual species range maps Kaschner et al, 2006; MEPS Southern elephant seal

19 AquaMaps: does it work? Validating individual species range maps Kaschner et al, 2006; MEPS Testing model performance in comparison to other approaches J.Ready, K.Kaschner et al, 2010; Eco Mod Compare AquaMaps with AquaMaps with expert input: Importance of expert review

20 AquaMaps: does it work? Validating individual species range maps Kaschner et al, 2006; MEPS Testing model performance in comparison to other approaches J.Ready, K.Kaschner et al, 2010; Eco Mod Validating species richness maps K.Kaschner et al, in prep Observed species richness Predicted species richness

21 AquaMaps: Investigating Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity Patterns Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov 2009

22 AquaMaps: Climate Change & Biodiversity Existing tools

23 AquaMaps: Biodiversity Maps

24 AquaMaps: Biodiversity Maps # of species / cell Ray-finned fishes 6544 of species

25 AquaMaps: Biodiversity Maps Species richness Mean length Gadidae: 23 of 25 species Mean trophic level

26 AquaMaps: Biodiversity Maps Latitudinal transects through species richness

27 AquaMaps: Climate Change Effects

28 AquaMaps: Climate Change Effects Single species analysis: Occurrence records Atlantic cod (Gadus Morhua) Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov 2009 Slide: courtesy J.Ready

29 TOOLS AquaMaps: Climate Change Effects Single species analysis: Current native range Atlantic cod (Gadus Morhua) Slide: courtesy J.Ready

30 AquaMaps: Climate Change Impacts Single species analysis: Modelled effects of climate change by 2050 Blue = increased suitability Orange = reduced suitability Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov 2009 Atlantic cod (Gadus Morhua) Slide: courtesy J.Ready

31 AquaMaps: Climate Change & Biodiversity

32 AquaMaps: Climate Change & Biodiversity Nr Class # of species 1 Actinopterygii Elasmobranchii Malacostraca 70 4 Bivalvia 69 5 Ascidiacea 55 6 Mammalia 51 7 Cephalopoda 28 8 Gastropoda 22 9 Polychaeta Not assigned Thaliacea 1 Total 1582

33 AquaMaps: Climate Change & Biodiversity Nr Class # of species % expert reviewed 1 Actinopterygii Elasmobranchii Malacostraca Bivalvia Ascidiacea Mammalia Cephalopoda Gastropoda Polychaeta Not assigned Thaliacea Total

34 AquaMaps: Climate Change & Biodiversity All species (n = 1582) Species Richness 1990s Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov 2009 # of species %

35 AquaMaps: Climate Change & Biodiversity All fishes (n = 1071) Species Richness 1990s Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov 2009 # of species %

36 AquaMaps: Climate Change & Biodiversity All fishes (n = 1071) Species Richness 1990s # of species % Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov 2009 Species Richness 1990s Ray-finned fishes (n = 961) Species Richness 1990s Sharks & Rays (n = 110) # of species % # of species %

37 AquaMaps: Climate Change & Biodiversity Ray-finned fishes (n = 961) Species Richness 1990s # of species % s Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov 2009

38 AquaMaps: Climate Change & Biodiversity Sharks & Rays (n = 71) Species Richness 1990s Species Richness # of species % s Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov 2009

39 AquaMaps: Climate Change & Biodiversity Sharks & Rays (n = 71) Species Richness 1990s Species Richness (Prop) or Species Turnover (Invasion & Local Extinction) # of species % s Local extinctions Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov 2009 % change in species richness % >

40 AquaMaps: Climate Change & Biodiversity Sharks & Rays (n = 71) % Ray-finned fishes (n = 961) % change in species richness > Species Richness (Prop) or Species Turnover (Invasion & Local Extinction) All species (n = 1582) Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov

41 AquaMaps: Climate Change & Biodiversity Sea Around Us Project All species global (n = 1066) Cheung et al (2009) Fish and Fisheries 10: Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov 2009

42 AquaMaps: Climate Change & Biodiversity Species Invasion SAUP All species global (n = 1066) AquaMaps All species FAO 27 (n = 1582) % change in species richness % > Cheung et al (2009) Fish and Fisheries 10: Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov 2009

43 AquaMaps: Climate Change & Biodiversity Species Local Extinctions Note different scale in comparison to AquaMaps! SAUP All species global (n = 1066) AquaMaps All species FAO 27 (n = 1582) % change in species richness % > Cheung et al (2009) Fish and Fisheries 10: Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov 2009

44 AquaMaps: Climate Change & Biodiversity Zonal average species turnover Invasion Local extinction Global Atlantic Cheung et al (2009) Fish and Fisheries 10: Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov 2009

45 AquaMaps: Climate Change & Biodiversity Zonal average species turnover Latitude Invasion Local extinction Atlantic AquaMaps Atlantic SAUP Cheung et al (2009) Fish and Fisheries 10: Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov 2009

46 AquaMaps: Climate Change & Biodiversity Zonal average invasion intensity Ray-finned fishes Sharks & Rays

47 AquaMaps: Climate Change & Biodiversity Mean loss in size of distribution for different taxa by 2040s Actinopterygii_LC (4) Actinopterygii_NL (49) Aplacophora_NL (4) Bivalvia_NL (3) Elasmobranchii_VU (1) Gastropoda_NL (1) Gymnolaemata_NL (5) Malacostraca_NL (11) Mammalia_DD (2) Mammalia_LR/cc (5) Mammalia_VU (1) Maxillopoda_NL (1) Not assigned_nl (2) Ophiuroidea_NL (1) Pycnogonida_NL (1) Scaphopoda_NL (3) Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov 2009 Mean loss in distribution size [%]

48 Summary Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov 2009

49 Summary Impacts of climate change on fishes in NE Atlantic: AquaMaps is a useful tool to for regional or global investigations high risk of large increase in invasion intensity in polar waters comparatively lower risk of local extinctions for some species: high potential decrease in size of distributions

50 Acknowledgements Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov 2009 AquaMaps team & INCOFISH Project ( MALEK project & BfN Sea Around Us project ( & Pew Charitable Trusts of Philadelphia, USA The Sloan Foundation & the FMAP Project

51 Thank you... Progress on Marine Conservation in Europe 2009, Stralsund 2-6 Nov 2009