Citigold. Citigold. FINANCIAL MARKET ANALYSIS 1 August Mixed week of monetary policy decisions. Performance.
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1 Citigold FINANCIAL MARKET ANALYSIS 1 August 2016 Mixed week of monetary policy decisions Last week, global markets grappled with an unchanged monetary policy decision from the US FOMC and a disappointing announcement from the Bank of Japan where it did not lower interest rates further or expand QE. Treasury yields and the US dollar both came under pressure as the FOMC decision was followed by much softer-than-expected US 2Q GDP growth. Oil prices also fell on higher than expected inventories and weighed on the Energy sector. However, EM currencies continued to strengthen thanks to the weaker USD. EM equities have also remained resilient This week's events worth noting include: the Bank of Japan s stimulus package, Reserve Bank of Australia s monetary policy decision, Eurozone retail sales and German factory orders. Citi analysts also expect the Bank of England to cut rates by more than 25bp. Performance Global stocks posted another weekly advance as the MSCI World rose 0.83%. US markets were mixed for the week, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.75%, the S&P 500 ticked 0.07% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.22%. European equities as measured by the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.46% on the week, taking its monthly rise to 3.6%. Japanese stocks fell (Nikkei 225: -0.35% and Topix: -0.36%) on disappointing stimulus measures. Meanwhile, EM equities finished the week higher (MSCI EM: 0.48%), led by MSCI Asia ex-japan gaining 0.24%. In contrast, MSCI Emerging Europe and MSCI Latin America lost -1.08% and -0.04% respectively. Within Asia, Australia was the outperformer. The ASX 200 added 1.17% this week and is now 5.03% ahead for Asset Allocation Equities We believe dividends offer more favourable relative value in comparison to fixed income. Within equities, we are turning more constructive on emerging markets relative to developed markets. Credit Sharp declines in sovereign yields has been the primary driver of performance in investment grade (IG) corporate bonds. We remain overweight IG corporates and favour USD over euro issuers. Rates The low global interest rate environment should anchor the long-end for US Treasuries as foreign investors continue to bid up safe haven, higher yielding USD assets. Commodities We expect commodity prices to generally remain on their upward trajectory, even if there is considerable volatility along the way. Softer than expected US data Citi Economic Surprise Index CESIUSD Index CESIEUR Index CESICNY Index HY bonds and EM debts outperform Accumulated 3-month Bond Index Returns World Govt Bonds Index Global EMD Index HY Index Another weekly advance for equities Accumulated 3-month Equity Index Returns MSCI World MSCI EM MSCI Asia Week Ahead Key Data and Event % 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% % -2.0% Date Country Data & Event Period Survey Prior Citi Fct 1-Aug EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jul F Aug US Personal Income Jun 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 2-Aug US Personal Spending Jun 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 2-Aug HK Retail Sales Value YoY Jun -8.1% -8.4% -8.8% 3-Aug EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI Jul F Aug EC Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Jul F Aug EC Retail Sales MoM Jun 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 3-Aug US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Jul Aug TH BoT Benchmark Interest Rate 3-Aug 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 5-Aug TA CPI YoY Jul 1.1% 0.9% 1.1% 5-Aug PH CPI YoY Jul 2.1% 1.9% 2.1% 5-Aug US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Jul 175k 287k 170k 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% All forecasts INVESTMENT are expressions PRODUCTS: of opinion, NOT are A BANK not a guarantee DEPOSIT. of NOT future GOVERNMENT results, are subject INSURED. to change NO BANK without GUARANTEE. notice and may MAY not LOSE meet our VALUE. expectations due to a Page 1
2 Drivers and Risks by Market United States Driver: Last week, the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged but upgraded its economic assessment. Highlights include: (1) the US economy is back on track for moderate growth, powered by "strong" household spending; (2) labour market utilization continues to rise; but (3) market-based measures of inflation compensation "remain low." Risk: For a September rate hike to be realistic, we believe the Committee would require a very unlikely but significant jump in the inflation rate. For example, CPI inflation rising above 2.5% (yoy) for the August and September prints, with accompanying sharp and sustained increases in growth and employment End-2016 Target: 2150 S&P 500 Implication: To date, underlying wage pressures appear to be rising, but they have not translated to accelerating prices. PCE inflation remains well below the Fed's two percent target. We maintain our position that the earliest time for the next rate hike is December, as long as data remain "on track" and no "event risk" materializes. Europe Driver: In the UK, we expect the BoE s Inflation Report to reflect the sharp deterioration of the economic outlook, by cutting 2016 and 2017 GDP growth forecasts significantly from 2.0% and 2.3% (Citi s forecasts currently at 1.2% and 0.9%), respectively. The inflation forecast is likely to move higher following the sterling s depreciation but unlikely to trigger rate hikes End-2016 Target: 310 Risk: A growing number of survey indicators is suggesting recession risk for the UK economy in the wake of the EU referendum. Implication: Citi now expects the Bank of England deliver more than a 25bp rate cut at the 4 August meeting. We now expect asset purchases of 75bn over the coming 4 months DJ Stoxx TMI 270 Japan Driver: At its monetary policy meeting held on July 28-29, the Bank of Japan increased ETF purchases to 6trn from 3.3trn a year but did not lower interest rates or expand QE further. Risk: We see the risk of an equity market correction in response to yen strengthening. We maintain our forecast range for July September for the Nikkei of 14,750-17,250. Implication: Citi analysts expect the BoJ to implement fresh easing at its meeting in January By then, it should have become clear that the 2% inflation target is unlikely to be met within FY2017. We expect the policy rate to be cut to -0.3% (from currently). Emerging Markets Driver: A balanced July FOMC statement has helped reduce the fear of another rate hike in September. Upside surprises in economic data in the EM, stability in Chinese data and the renminbi, coupled with expectations of additional fiscal and monetary stimulus in Japan and the UK have helped keep investor sentiment buoyant. Risk: Key risks include growing global political uncertainty and still significant policy challenges. Implication: With aggregate investor positioning in EM still close to neutral, investors continue to raise EM allocations within their portfolios. Barring serious policy disappointment or material deterioration in economic data, there appears to still be room for the ongoing EM rally to extend further. End-2016 Target: Japan Topix 1000 End-2016 Target: MSCI Asia ex JP 300 Page 2
3 Currency Forecast Last price Forecasts Currency 29-Jul-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 G10-US Dollar Euro EURUSD Japanese yen USDJPY British Pound GBPUSD Swiss Franc USDCHF Australian Dollar AUDUSD New Zealand NZDUSD Canadian Dollar USDCAD EM Asia Chinese Renminbi USDCNY Hong Kong USDHKD Indonesian Rupiah USDIDR 13,112 13,316 13,464 13,515 13,535 13,555 13,575 Indian Rupee USDINR Korean Won USDKRW 1,120 1,168 1,178 1,168 1,152 1,136 1,120 Malaysian Ringgit USDMYR Philippine Peso USDPHP Singapore Dollar USDSGD Thai Baht USDTHB Taiwan Dollar USDTWD EM Europe Russian Ruble USDRUB South African Rand USDZAR EM Latam Brazilian Real USDBRL Mexican Peso USDMXN Source: Citi Research and Bloomberg as of 29 July 2016 \\ Weekly Market Performance (25-29 July 2016) -5.9% 0.0% -0.2% -0.3% -0.3% -0.4% -0.4% -0.8% -1.1% -1.1% 2.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% Gold MSCI AC World Citi World Broad Inv Grade Europe Stoxx Europe 600 Korea KOSPI MSCI AsiaXJapan MSCI Latin America US S&P 500 UK FTSE 100 Citi Global Emerging Mkt Sovereigns Taiwan TAIEX HK Hang Seng Japan TPX Index Citi High Yield China HSCEI MSCI Emerging Europe China Shanghai Composite Market Performance (Year-To-Date) (As of 29 July 2016) Oil Short Rates and 10-Year Yield Forecasts 30.7% 27.3% MSCI Latin America Gold Last price 29-Jul-16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 Short Rates (End of Period) US Japan Euro Area Year Yield (Period Average) US Japan Euro Area % 12.4% 12.3% 12.3% 7.8% 7.7% 6.4% 6.3% 5.4% 4.2% 2.8% Citi High Yield Citi Global Emerging Mkt Sovereigns MSCI Emerging Europe Oil Taiwan TAIEX UK FTSE 100 Citi World Broad Inv Grade US S&P 500 MSCI AsiaXJapan MSCI AC World Korea KOSPI HK Hang Seng Source: Citi Research and Bloomberg as of 29 July % -7.3% Europe Stoxx Europe 600 China HSCEI -14.5% Japan TPX Index -15.8% China Shanghai Composite -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% Page 3
4 World Market At Glance US / Global Last price 52-Week 52-Week 29-Jul-16 High Low 1 week 1 month 1 year Year-to-date Year-to-date (USD) MSCI World % 5.45% -2.24% 4.19% 4.19% Dow Jones Industrial Average % 4.17% 3.84% 5.78% 5.78% S&P % 4.97% 3.08% 6.34% 6.34% NASDAQ % 8.01% 0.99% 3.09% 3.09% Europe MSCI Europe % 5.09% % -3.11% -3.11% Stoxx Europe % 4.72% % -6.54% -4.04% FTSE % 5.73% 1.41% 7.72% -3.29% CAC % 5.83% % -4.25% -1.69% DAX % 7.54% -7.80% -3.77% -1.61% Japan NIKKEI % 6.44% % % 2.58% Topix % 6.02% % % 0.74% Emerging Markets MSCI Emerging Market % 6.28% -2.96% 9.99% 9.99% MSCI Latin America % 7.08% 4.08% 30.69% 30.69% MSCI Emerging Europe % 0.92% -4.55% 12.34% 12.34% Brazil Bovespa % 12.36% 14.06% 32.20% 61.25% Russia RTS % -0.41% 7.13% 22.53% 22.53% Asia MSCI Asia ex-japan % 6.28% -3.90% 5.39% 5.39% Australia S&P/ASX % 8.17% -1.10% 5.03% 9.31% China HSCEI (H-shares) % 4.52% % -7.27% -7.37% China Shanghai Composite % 1.63% % % % Hong Kong Hang Seng % 7.12% % -0.11% -0.22% India Sensex % 4.90% 1.77% 7.41% 6.50% Indonesia JCI % 4.74% 10.48% 13.56% 20.38% Malaysia KLCI % 0.67% -2.69% -2.32% 3.97% Korea KOSPI % 3.06% -1.05% 2.80% 8.78% Philippines PSE % 2.11% 6.42% 14.54% 14.23% Singapore STI % 2.72% % -0.49% 4.99% Taiwan TAIEX % 4.63% 4.92% 7.75% 11.40% Thailand SET % 5.64% 7.52% 18.33% 22.66% Commodity Historical Returns (%) Oil % % % 12.31% 12.31% Gold spot % 2.42% 23.18% 27.28% 27.28% Page 4
5 Disclaimer Citi analysts refers to investment professionals within Citi Research ( CR ), Citi Global Markets Inc. ( CGMI ) and voting members of the Citi Global Investment Committee. For important disclosures concerning companies covered by Citi's Equity Research analysts, please refer to the attached link: This document is based on information provided by Citigroup Investment Research, Citigroup Global Markets, Citigroup Global Wealth Management and Citigroup Alternative Investments. It is provided for your information only. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Information in this document has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Accordingly, investors should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned herein should be made based on a review of your particular circumstances with your financial adviser. Investments referred to in this document are not recommendations of Citibank or its affiliates. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Citibank believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete and condensed. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments also are subject to change without notice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investment products are (i) not insured by any government agency; (ii) not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, the depository institution; and (iii) subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. All forecasts are expressions of opinion, are not a guarantee of future results, are subject to change without notice and may not meet our expectations due to a variety of economic, market and other factors. The document is not to be construed as a solicitation or recommendation of investment advice. Subject to the nature and contents of the document, the investments described herein are subject to fluctuations in price and/or value and investors may get back less than originally invested. Certain high-volatility investments can be subject to sudden and large falls in value that could equal the amount invested. Certain investments contained in the document may have tax implications for private customers whereby levels and basis of taxation may be subject to change. Citibank does not provide tax advice and investors should seek advice from a tax adviser. Citibank N.A., London Branch is authorised and regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (USA) and authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Our firm reference number with our UK regulators is Citibank Europe plc is authorised by the Central Bank of Ireland and by the Prudential Regulation Authority. It is subject to supervision by the Central Bank of Ireland, and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority, and regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority are available from us on request. Citibank Europe plc, UK Branch is registered as a branch in the register of companies for England and Wales with registered number BR Its registered address is Citigroup Centre, Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5LB. VAT No.: GB Citibank N.A., London Branch is registered as a branch in the UK at Citigroup Centre, Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5LB. Registered number BR Citibank Europe plc is registered in Ireland with number , with its registered office at 1 North Wall Quay, Dublin 1. Citibank Europe plc is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Ultimately owned by Citigroup Inc., New York, USA. In Jersey, this document is communicated by Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch which has its registered address at PO BOX 104, 38 Esplanade, St Helier, Jersey, JE4 8QB. Citibank, N.A., Jersey Branch is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Citibank N.A. is incorporated with limited liability in the USA. Head office: 399 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10043, USA. Citibank N.A CITI, CITI and Arc Design are registered service marks of Citigroup Inc. Calls may be monitored or recorded for training and service quality purposes. Page 5
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