The Impact of Demand-Side Management on Energy Markets

Transcription

1 The Impact of Demand-Side Management on Energy Markets Berlin, October 17th, th Annual Electricity Price Modelling and Forecasting Forum Dr.-Ing. Serafin von Roon (FfE) 1

2 Agenda Research Association for Energy Markets and Technologies Results of the Agora Study what do the key players say? A modelling Approach for DSM: The Concept of the Functional Energy Storage Costs of DSM Suitable Markets due to the costs and technical restraints of DSM 2

3 Research Center for Energy Economics Independent Research in Energy Economics for 60 years Cooperation with the Technische Universität München Expertise in all fields of energy economics Foundation of Research Association for Energy Markets and Technologies in 2001 Research Association for Energy Markets and Technologies Smart Energy & Smart Markets Industrial Energy Management Urban Energy Management 3

4 4 Results of the Agora Study

5 Design and Approach of the Study Study Design Regional focus with taking into account the industry structure (automotive / mechanical engineering) Practical results involving all relevant players Inclusion of cross-section technologies Approach Face to face interviews with 10 companies and 5 players in the Energy Industry Online questionnaire about the feasibility of load management in more than 280 companies Evaluation of statistics, load management studies and data from 40 site inspections, extrapolation of potential Validation of the results in expert workshops and discussions with companies, industry organisations, network operators and utility companies 5

6 Why did we focus on Southern Germany? Strained Supply Situation in Southern Germany 4.9 GW of nuclear power switched off since 2011 More shutdowns in 2015 and thereafter Only a few power plants under construction (a coal-fired power plant in both Karlsruhe and Mannheim) Network expansion not until 2017 at the earliest, and then further based on requirement Central Question Could load management contribute to the security of supply in Southern Germany? Geplante Abschaltung der Kernkraftwerke Already switched off 2015 Planned shutdowns

7 Experiences with Demand-Side Management Is Demand-Side Management a new and innovative approach? Quelle: Wagner, U. (1989) 7 Load Management has been practised for decades goal: reduce local load peaks New: Load Management for global benefit e.g.for a better integration of renewable as well as security of supply

8 Bilaterale Vereinbarungen m. Netzbetreibern Beteiligung am Regelenergiemarkt Genutzt zu einem optimierten Stromeinkauf Reduktion betrieblicher Spitzenlast Geprüft, nicht umgesetzt Sonstige Keine Erfahrungen Experiences with Demand-Side Management Possible contribution to security of supply Bitte geben Sie an, über welche Erfahrungen Ihr Einzelbetrieb/Standort mit dem Thema Lastmanagement verfügt? in % der Antworten, N=97 Reduction of peak load Provision of balancing power Redispatch 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% N.B.: Summe der Prozentsätze >100% weil mehrere Antworten möglich waren 2% 4% 16% 47% 21% 13% 26% 8

9 Anteil Antworten Estimation of the Potentials Other findings of the online survey Duration of activation: majority 0,5 2 hours, in 20 % of respondents 2 h Necessary time of notice: 1. group: < 1 hour 2. group: > 8 h to 1 day Frequency: up to 50 activations per year, with 10 % of respondents more than 100 activations Necessary financial incentives: 15 % of companies with 3-5 % electricity cost savings 100% Realisierbares Potenzial für Abschaltung (in % bei normaler Auslastung) über Durchschnittslast In % der Antworten je Lastkategorie 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% > 15% 11% - 15% 7% - 10% 4% - 6% 2% - 3% < 2 % 10% 0% > 100 kw - 1 MW (N=24) > 1 MW - 10 MW (N=44) Durchschnittslast > 10 MW MW (N=13) 9

10 Why aren t we making use of this potential? 10 Welche Gründe hindern Ihren Betrieb überhaupt oder in größerem Umfang als bisher Lastmanagement zu betreiben? In % der Antworten Technisches Risiko einer Produktionsstörung (N=78) Mögliche Beeinträchtigung der Produktqualität (N=78) Zukünftige Regelungen sind noch nicht bekannt (N=74) 5 Sehr relevantes Hemmniss Überhaupt kein Hemmniss Störung der Arbeitsabläufe (N=83) Regelungen sind zu restriktiv (N=65) Geringe Stromkostenersparnis (N=75) Höhe der notwendigen Investitionen (N=74) Ungewisse Stromkostenersparnis (N=74) Andere Investitionen haben Vorrang (N=80) Zusätzliche Betriebskosten (N=76) Regelungen sind zu kompliziert (N=69) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

11 Potential of Energy Intensive Processes Reference: Assessment of Fraunhofer ISI, potentials are already partly used for optimized purchase 11

12 Cross-Sectional Technologies Electrical Engines Ventilation Compressed Air Lighting Cooling production and distribution Heat Heat distribution production and distribution IT Pumps Power production 12

13 13 Load Management Potential

14 14 Duration of Activation

15 15 Maximum and minimum electricity consumption that can be switched off for cross-sectional technologies

16 16 Night Heat Storages Systems and Heat Pumps

17 17 Summary of the Agora Study

18 18 A modelling approach for DSM

19 Functional Energy Storages Overview of Storage Technologies * ** Pumped Storage CHP + Heat Storage + Power2Heat - + Electromobility Power2Gas Further Technologies Flexibilization of Load FfE Region Model Welfare and Market-Analysis 19 Expansion Scenarios * SW Münster * * EWE

20 20 Functional Energy Storages Definition Functional Energy Storage

21 Storage Power in GW Power/Load in in GW GW Leistung/Last in GW Leistung/Last in GW Storage Technologies and Demand Response Functional Energy Storage exemplified by CHP Stunde im Jahr 15 Hour hour of the year Year Negative Residual-Load Residual-Load Renewable Energies CHP Flexibile CHP Renewable + CHP Hour of the Year

22 22 Costs of Demand Response

23 23 Energy Consumption and Energy Intensity by Sector

24 Types of Costs for Implementing and Operating Demand Response Investments Fixed costs Variable costs Measurement Information costs Opportunity costs and control Transaction costs (value of lost technology Control costs load) Software Storage costs Communications Personnel costs technology Maintenance Demand costs Response Inconvience strategy costs Storages Efficiency losses Fuel costs 24

25 Fixed Costs: Investments no answer 36,000 EUR 30,000 EUR ,000 EUR 4 4,000-6,000 EUR 8 2,000 EUR number of mentions (N = 16) 25

26 Fixed Costs: Personnel Costs 60,000 EUR 38,000 EUR 30,000 EUR ,000-12,500 EUR 3 2,000-5,000 EUR 8 0 EUR number of mentions (N = 16) 26

27 Variable Costs Cross-Sectional Technologies Additional Personnel Costs Efficiency Losses Comfort Losses Storage Losses Ventilation System Shut down Refrigerating Machine Other Shut down Start up Electric Lighting Shut down Heating Circulation Pumps Shut down Heat Pumps El. Hot Water Preparation Band-Conveyors Demand Response Strategy Shut down Start up Shut down Start up Start up Shut down Mentions per Variable Cost No Variable Costs 27

28 Summary of Costs: Investments I.a Plant-Independent Investments Type Personnel Costs for Potential-Analysis, Operating-Strategy & Employee-Training Communication Box for Data Exchange with Demand Response Aggregator I.b Plant-Dependent Investments Type Upgrade Measurement (Power Measurement) Integration in Building Automation in case Upgrade Control Technologies: Relays in case Upgrade Control Technologies: Frequency Converters in case Upgrade Control Technologies: Dimmable Ballasts Investments EUR EUR Investments EUR per Plant EUR 1. Plant 250 EUR 2. Plant 6 to 9 EUR per kw 10 kw: EUR 100 kw: EUR 500 kw: EUR 100 EUR per Illuminate 28

29 Summary of Costs: Fixed Operating Costs II.a Fixed Personnel Costs Type Annual Fixed Personnel Costs (1st Year) Annual Fixed Personnel Costs (2nd Year and following) II.b Data Exchange Type Annual Fixed Costs caused by Data Exchange between Companies and Demand Response Aggregator Amount EUR per Year EUR per Year Amount 0 EUR per Year 29

30 Summary of Costs: Variable Costs Type Variable Personnel Costs per Demand Response Activation in case of Load Increase additional Costs for Purchasing Electricity may occur Amount 8 EUR per Activation Quantifying is not possible 30

31 31 DSM as Business Case

32 32 Results of the profitability analysis

33 33 Sensitivity Analysis: Investments

34 34 Sensitivity Analysis: Time of Reservation

35 35 Sensitivity Analysis: Cumulative Power

36 36 A new Benchmark: The new Ordinance for Disruptable Load

37 37 Results and Conclusions

38 Results and Conclusion Potential Significant Load Management Potential is available not only in branches with high power consumption but also in cross-sectional technologies in all branches Restraints Fear of: Technical risk of production disruption, Damage of product quality, Disruptions of operations Regulations are too restrictive Incentives are too low except ordinance of disruptable load The Business case Cross-sectional technologies for Demand Response A positive net capital value is possible - but only with high cumulative power and only in specific markets 38

39 Thank you for your attention and the support of 39 Serafin von Roon: / Forschungsgesellschaft für Energiewirtschaft mbh Am Blütenanger München