Speculating on the Future for Automatic Speech Recognition

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1 Speculating on the Future for Automatic Speech Recognition A Survey of Attendees by Roger K Moore 1

2 THANK YOU! 2

3 It is hard to predict especially the future. Niels Bohr,

4 The Survey(s) 12 of the 20 statements were exactly the same as those posed to the participants of ASRU 97 six years ago A couple were suggested by the ASRU 04 Technical Committee The rest were taken from Ray Kurzweil s books 4

years ago A couple were suggested by the ASRU 04

5 Predictions from Ray Kurzweil A PC will have the computational power of the human brain by 2019, and will be equivalent to 1000 human brains by

7 Some Overall Statistics attendees: 222 (180) forms returned: 47% (45%) overall mean: 2055 (2056) never s: 24% (17%) named responses: s: 10% (7%) 7

8 Some Overall Statistics 2003 (1997) attendees: 222 (180) forms returned: 47% (45%) overall mean: 2055 (2056) never s: 24% (17%) named responses: s: 10% (7%) 8

9 Some Overall Statistics 2003 (1997) attendees: 222 (180) forms returned: 47% (45%) overall mean: 2055 (2056) never s: 24% (17%) named responses: s: 10% (7%) 9

10 30 6 years! The Church Effect

11 1. More than 50% of new PCs have dictation on them, either at purchase or shortly after. already comes with Office XP won t be used now but not used 11

12 1. More than 50% of new PCs have dictation on them, either at purchase or shortly after Mean: 2009 (2001) SD: 7 (3) Min: 2000 (1997) Max: 2050 (2010) Never 12

30 25 20 Mean: 2009 (2001) SD: 7 (3) Min: 2000 (1997) Max: 2050 (2010) 15

13 2. Most telephone Interactive Voice Response (IVR) systems accept speech input. 13

14 2. Most telephone Interactive Voice Response systems accept speech input (and more than just digits) Mean: 2010 (2003) SD: 10 (4) Min: 2000 (1998) Max: 2060 (2020) Never 14

Max: 2060 (2020) 20 15 1997 2003 10 5 0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

15 5. Automatic airline reservation by voice over the telephone is the norm. 15

16 5. Automatic airline reservation by voice over the telephone is the norm Mean: 2013 (2015) SD: 10 (57) Min: 2002 (1999) Max: 2050 (2500) Never 16

(2500) 15 1997 2003 10 5 0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

17 4. Speech recognition is commonly available at home (e.g. interactive TV, control of home appliances and home management systems). in your pocket! 17

18 4. Speech recognition is commonly available at home (e.g. interactive TV, control of home appliances and home management systems) Mean: 2016 (2010) SD: 15 (12) Min: 2004 (1999) Max: 2100 (2100) Never 18

19 7. Voice-enabled command, control and communication in cars becomes as common as intermittent wiper, power window or power door lock. 19

20 7. Voice-enabled command, control and communication in cars becomes as common as intermittent wiper, power window or power door lock Mean: 2016 (2008) SD: 13 (8) Min: 2004 (1999) Max: 2075 (2050) Never 20

25 20 15 10 Mean: 2016 (2008) SD: 13 (8) Min: 2004 (1999) Max: 2075 (2050) 1997

21 3. TV closed-captioning (subtitling) is automatic and pervasive. 21

22 3. TV closed captioning is automatic and pervasive Mean: 2018 (2031) SD: 17 (124) Min: 1998 (1997) Max: 2100 (3001) Never 22

23 15. Telephones are answered by an intelligent answering machine that converses with the calling party to determine the nature and priority of the call. 23

24 15. Telephones are answered by an intelligent answering machine that converses with the calling party to determine the nature and priority of the call Mean: 2022 (early 2000s) SD: 25 Min: 2000 Max: Never 24

25 11. First legal case in which a recording of a person s voice is thrown out because it cannot be proved whether a computer or a person said it. not evidence in many countries already 25

26 11. First legal case in which a recording of a person's voice is thrown out because it cannot be proved whether a computer or a person said it Mean: 2025 (2050) SD: 29 (167) Min: 1995 (1990) Max: 2150 (3000) Never 26

27 20. Pocket-sized listening machines are commonly available for the hearing impaired. 27

28 20. Pocket-sized listening machines are commonly available for the hearing impaired Mean: 2026 (2009) SD: 32 Min: 2001 Max: Never 28

29 16. The majority of automatic speech recognition systems have completely abandoned the HMM paradigm for acoustic modelling. impossible to answer hope it s soon HMMs are here to stay, but the assumptions will be steadily relaxed 29

30 16. The majority of automatic speech recognition systems have completely abandoned the HMM paradigm for acoustic modelling Mean: 2029 SD: 33 Min: 2007 Max: Never 30

31 10. Public proceedings (e.g. courts, public inquiries, parliament etc.) are transcribed automatically. 31

32 10. Public proceeedings (e.g. courts, public inquiries, parliament etc.) are transcribed automatically Mean: 2030 (2041) SD: 26 (128) Min: 2006 (2000) Max: 2150 (3001) Never 32

33 9. A leading cause of time away from work is being hoarse from talking all the time, and people buy keyboards as an alternative to speaking. keyboards will always be shipped no problem, there will always be advanced pills available 33

34 9. A leading cause of time away from work is being hoarse from talking all the time, and people buy keyboards as an alternative to speaking Mean: 2030 (2103) SD: 31 (287) Min: 2006 (1998) Max: 2150 (3020) Never 34

35 14. The majority of automatic speech recognition systems have completely abandoned the n- grams paradigm for language modelling. most deployed systems use CFG anyway impossible to answer hope it s soon 35

36 14. The majority of automatic speech recognition systems have completely abandoned the n-grams paradigm for language modelling Mean: 2033 SD: 39 Min: 1995 Max: Never 36

37 13. The majority of text is created using continuous speech recognition. for authoring (vs transcription of recordings) 37

38 13. The majority of text is created using continuous speech recognition Mean: 2039 (2009) SD: 48 Min: 2000 Max: Never

39 17. Most routine business transactions take place between a human and a virtual personality (including an animated visual presence that looks like a human face). 39

40 17. Most routine business transactions take place between a human and a virtual personality (including an animated visual presence that looks like a human face) Mean: 2041 (2009) SD: 66 Min: 1994 Max: Never 40

41 18. Translating telephones allow two people across the globe to speak to each other even if they do not speak the same language. depends on the task 41

42 18. Translating telephones allow two people across the globe to speak to each other even if they do not speak the same language Mean: 2057 (early 2000s) SD: 116 Min: 2000 Max: Never 42

43 12. Speech recognition accuracy equals that of the average (individual) human transcriber. which task? 43

44 12. Speech recognition accuracy equals that of the average (individual) human transcriber Mean: 2064 (2046) SD: 222 (124) Min: 2005 (1997) Max: 3827 (3001) Never 44

45 19. Most interaction with computing is through gestures and two-way natural-language spoken communication. 45

46 19. Most interaction with computing is through gestures and two-way natural-language spoken communication Mean: 2069 (2019) SD: 225 Min: 2004 Max: Never 46

47 6. It is possible to hold a telephone conversation with an automatic chat-line system for more than 10 minutes without realising it isn t human. why would one want that? could happen, but should not hopefully never 47

48 6. It is possible to hold a telephone conversation with an automatic chatline system for more than 10 minutes without realising it isn't human Mean: 2086 (2128) SD: 228 (328) Min: 2000 (1998) Max: 3579 (4001) Never 48

49 8. No more need for speech research. GASP! Ha! Never 49

50 2380 Never No more need for speech research. Mean: 2342 (2240) SD: 1308 (546) Min: 1981 (1984) Max: (5001)

51 Overall Impressions High-level of participation thanks to the 105 who responded Remarkably consistent with the 1997 survey Strong evidence of the Church Effect Neither more optimistic or pessimistic More agreement & more realistic People less willing to be associated with their opinions than 6 years ago 51

52 That s it Folks! 52

53 20/20 Speech Ltd. Science Park, Malvern, Worcs., WR14 3SZ, UK Tel: Fax:

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