Spaning om Framtidens urbana transportsystem

Transcription

1 Spaning om Framtidens urbana transportsystem Gunnar Johansson, Transportindustriledare IBM Norden Kollektivtrafikdagen 12 maj 2016

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6 Hur blir transportsystemet med digitalisering, Internet of Things och Cognitive analytics? Connect Manage Inform A Smarter Planet 6

7 Connected gör bilen säker och attraktiv V2I / ADAS Backend to Vehicle Sends route preview (120km/h, 10% downward slope) IT Backend Vehicle Diagnostics Receives engine information to predict failures and optimize quality OEM V2I Vehicle to Backend Sends position, speed, and other relevant sensor data Efficiency Backend to Vehicle Real-time update: Slow down, danger! Vehicle Diagnostics Warning: based on current sensor data their is a high probability of a brake failure. V2I / ADAS Vehicle to Backend Danger: Stationary traffic ahead! 0m 200m 500m 2 km Distance from Vehicle Safety Comfort Efficency 7

8 Elektrifiering gör bilen miljövänlig Tesla has changed the game again, said Andrea James, an analyst with Dougherty & Co. Alliance Bernstein s Mark Jones also called it a game changer, and so too did Evercore ISI analyst George Galliers. This is not just a Tesla thing, as alluring as the brand might be. It is a sign, noted Johnston and the other analysts, that the days of the internal combustion engine are numbered. Some say it may be over by

9 Delningsekonomin gör bilen tillgänlig och billig Google and Apple will hurt traditional carmakers a massive, disruptive restructuring of the auto industry Jonas said traditional automaker executives all say the same thing, that we re going to lead the industry transition. He thinks the industry is well prepared for autonomous vehicles -- but not for a significant change in individual ownership patterns. Car sharing is going to have a drastic impact on production, Marchionne said on the sidelines of the Detroit auto show last month. In his view, such as change would result in a massive, disruptive restructuring of the auto industry. This, he said, is not painless. 1) Adam Jonas, Managing Director at Morgan Stanley 2) Sergio Marchionne, CEO Fiat Chrysler Automobiles Källa: 9

10 Staden dränks i bilar 10

11 Stadens viktigaste resurs! Källa: Gestaltning av spårvägen, Lund 11

12 Stockholm har visionen klar... VISION 2040

13 Bild: Gunnar Johansson 13

14 IMG_8104.JPG Bild: Gunnar Johansson 14

15 Är Smart Group Rapid Transit (GRT) stadens räddning? SMRT (Singapore) and 2getthere (Netherland) will market, install, operate and maintain GRT Automated Vehicle systems Capacity: 24 passenger per car, 40 km per hour and passenger per hour and direction direction 15

16 Ett komplement som gör visionen möjlig? VISION 2040 GRT Angela Merkel visits IBM IoT & Connected Car at CeBIT 2014 (Language: German);

17 John Glen Wardrop ( c. 1989) Wardrop's first principle Each user seeks to minimize his cost of transportation. The traffic flows that satisfy this principle are usually referred to as "user equilibrium" Wardrop's second principle That implies that all users behave cooperatively in choosing their routes to ensure the most efficient use of the whole system. Traffic flows satisfying Wardrop's second principle are generally deemed system optimal (SO). 17

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19 Många kan hjälpa till att samla de olika delarna It s all about Smarter Mobility by... Private Car...and providing an easy and comprehensive digital support for the end-to-end trip... Bike Sharing Taxi P2P Parking P&R Carsharing Public Transport Train, Bus, Tram, Boat, Cablecar... + P2P Carsharing Intermodal Planning End-to-End Trip Booking Pro-active Asstistance Buy add-on services & products Private Bike Ride Sharing 19 Walking...with an intermodal travel companion app

20 Men trafiken i städer är en liten del av helheten... 20

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23 Toul ouse is not an easy Jet base, but it will oper ate seve n rout es this sum mer inclu ding thre e dom estic servi ces. Rece ntly, Briti sh Airw ays mov ed its Lond on servi ce to Heat hro w, awa y from easy jet s com petit ion at Gat wick, givin g Toul ouse a rich choic e of traffi c from the Lond on area conn ectio ns whic h shou ld be well mar kete d by the airp ort and touri st auth oriti es. 23

24 Toul ouse is not an easy Jet base, but it will oper ate seve n rout es this sum mer inclu ding thre e dom estic servi ces. Rece ntly, Briti sh Airw ays mov ed its Lond on servi ce to Heat hro w, awa y from easy jet s com petit ion at Gat wick, givin g Toul ouse a rich choic e of traffi c from the Lond on area conn ectio ns whic h shou ld be well mar kete d by the airp ort and touri st auth oriti es. Källa: Walt Disney Company (Lucasfilm) Death Star, Star Wars 24

25 Köer av otyglade bilar med explotionsmotorer är en utrotningshotad art i stadsmiljön En utrotningshotad art är en art som hotas av att dö ut, antingen på grund av att den till antalet är få, eller att den hotas av förändrande miljömässiga eller rovdjursparametrar Källa: Stockholms trafikutveckling 2015 Motorfordon, Rapport april 2016, Stockholm stad Källa: 25

26 Gunnar Johansson IBM Transport Industry Leader 26