Workforce Skills Roadmap for Auckland Construction Sector ( )

Transcription

1 Construction and Infrastructure Sponsor Group Workforce Skills Roadmap for Auckland Construction Sector ( ) Preliminary Report Prepared for: Auckland Construction Sector on behalf of Construction and Infrastructure Sponsor Group June 214

2 Sponsor Group Sponsor Group Primary Contributors: Secondary Contributors: Building and Construction ITO Competenz Infrastructure ITO Manukau Institute of Technology Tertiary Education Commission Skills Organisation Unitec Institute of Technology Building and Construction Productivity Partnership Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment Information sources including: Working group: Fletcher Building, Hawkins Construction, Naylor Love Construction, Dominion Constructors Ltd. Additional sources and reports from: Auckland Council, Auckland Procurement Forum, Productivity Partnership, Roading NZ, Branz, NZCID, NZ Contractors Federation, National Infrastructure Unit, BCITO, Infratrain ITO, SCIRT, MBIE. Companion document to: Auckland s Construction and Infrastructure Labour Requirements: Commissioned report prepared by Market Economics Ltd.

3 Purpose of this Document This document is intended as a preliminary high level roadmap of anticipated workforce growth in the Auckland construction sector over the next 1 years. It focuses primarily on industry sector skills growth in the next five years. Developed in conjunction with the Auckland construction sector, this report is intended to assist the tertiary vocational education providers better respond to employment growth associated with the anticipated wall of work in Auckland during the period through to 218. This summary report provides broadly indicative high level employment growth trends, both directly in the construction sector and in related supporting occupations in the wider Auckland economy. A more detailed breakdown for each occupation is available in the companion report ( Auckland s Construction & Infrastructure Labour Requirements ). These two reports should be read in conjunction. This roadmap will be updated regularly to reflect changes in the sector. Feedback is sought to regarding the process of its creation and the method of data presentation. 1

4 Employment Growth in Construction and Infrastructure Occupations in Auckland Wall of Work Unprecedented levels of growth in building and construction are forecast in the immediate future in New Zealand, dominated by Auckland. significant growth Auckland has the largest share of this growth approx 44% increase in demand to 218 This increase in construction activity drives total net growth of 32, in construction and infrastructure occupations across the Auckland economy. Total growth 32, (1%) 11,8 Direct sector growth 2,2 New house building more than doubles over the next decade, including an increase in apartments Infrastructure investment increases led by roading, electricity and water Wider economy growth 7% of all residential growth during occurs in the first 5 years 69% of total employment growth is driven by residential construction 2 Skill level totals Page 2 to be viewed with page 3

5 Employment Growth Summary Bachelors Degree or equivalent experience occupations by formal training and/or experience NZ Register Diploma or similar NZ Register Level 4 Qualification or similar NZ Register Level 2 or 3 Qualification or similar NZ Register Level 1 Qualification or similar See Appendix 2 for ANZSCO skill levels on page 14 4,95 (15%) Project builders Construction project managers Civil engineering professionals Industrial mechanical production engineers 45 (1%) Architectural building & survey technicians Contract programme & contract administrators other engineering technicians 4, Carpenters & joiners Electricians Plumbers Painting trades (12%) 55 (2%) Truck drivers Structural steel & construction workers Specialised plant operators 1,85 (6%) Commercial cleaners Plumbing & building labourers Other labourers See more detail on direct C & I sector occupations on pages 8 and 9. 6,1 (19%) Policy & planning managers Project builders Civil engineering professionals Architects & landscape architects 2, (6%) Contract programme & contract administrators Architectural building & survey technicians other engineering technicians 4, Motor mechanics Metal & steel workers Carpenters & joiners (13%) 4,1 (13%) Truck drivers Supply, despatch & transport logistics clerks Machine operators Specialised plant operators 4, (13%) Other labourers Commercial cleaners Plumbing & building labourers See more detail on wider Auckland economy C & I occupations on pages 1 and ,5 (34%) 2,45 (7%) 8, (25%) 4,65 (15%) 5,85 (19%) See 218 totals in graph on page anzsco skill levels Page 3 to be viewed with page 2 3

6 Building and Construction Pipeline National Pipeline national value of building and construction historic and forecast % 25 44% Auckland Pipeline forecast value of construction auckland $ $ millions 2 15 $ millions Source: Pacifecon/BRANZ Years Res Non Res Total 2 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 216/17 217/18 218/19 219/2 22/21 221/22 222/23 Year Civil Non Residential Residential The National Construction Pipeline forecasts unprecedented levels of demand for building and construction in the immediate future 23% above the last construction peak in 27 and 44% above 213 levels. Residential construction markets are leading this growth. Auckland has the largest share of forecast growth levels for building and construction in New Zealand. In Auckland, high levels of construction sector pipeline growth a build to peak levels 218/219 a 44% increase in activity on 213 levels. Contributing to this wall of work is: strong residential growth, with new house building more than doubling over the next decade. Key features include an increase in apartments and medium density housing, and around 7% of residential growth occurring in the first 5 years remedial work including earthquake strengthening and leaky buildings increasing value of non-residential consents a large number of civil projects underway or being accelerated (up 35% on 213 levels) led by roading, electricity and water a - see Appendix 1 4

7 Employment in the Construction Sector in Auckland Auckland s construction sector is a major source of employment in the region. Around 49, employees and self-employed business owners are currently employed in the construction sector, accounting for over 6.5% of total employment in Auckland. In 213, the construction sector had over 16, businesses. In the last five years, overall employee numbers have declined following the reduction and consolidation of the construction sector (28-21). Notably, residential and construction services had the most significant workforce decline during this period, compared with the positive employee growth trend maintained in heavy and civil engineering. Over 6% of businesses in the sector only have a single self-employed working proprietor (and no other employees), making up 3% of all workers in the sector. The majority of these businesses are in the building construction and construction services sub-sectors of the industry for example: in residential building as project builders; building services installation as electricians and plumbers; building completion activities which include painter/decorators. Construction Sector Employee (only) Count by Region The following figures are included to give indications of employment trends for employees only, they do not capture self employed owners in the sector building construction heavy & civil engineering construction services 9, 1, 25, 8, 9, 7, 8, 2, employees 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, employees 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, employees 15, 1, 5, 1, 1, Year Year Year Auckland Canterbury Wellington Source: Occupation Outlook, 214, MBIE, p6 5

8 Employment Growth in Construction and Infrastructure Occupations in Auckland ( ) Employment in construction and infrastructure (C & I) a occupations will be strong over the next several years as the known and planned projects build to peak levels in 218/219. The pipeline of forecast national and regional construction projects and broader economic drivers influencing the sector provide a basis for developing a projection of the skilled workforce for the sector b. cumulative employment growth , construction and infrastructure occupations are located in a range of sectors across the Auckland economy, with 49, of these directly employed in the C & I sector. Based on expanding construction activity, the total employment in construction and infrastructure occupations in Auckland is anticipated to increase by 32, c. Around 11,8 c of this employment growth will occur directly in the construction sector. 25, Employment growth 45, 4, 35, 25, 2, 15, 1, Number of employees 2, 15, 1, 5, 162, 11,8 increase in sector 2,2 increase in wider economy 194, 5, * Year Civil construction related employment Non Residential construction related employment Residential construction related employment Year Employment directly in construction sector Employment in wider Auckland economy Share of related employment growth due to pipeline forecasts across subsectors Civil 22% a. See note 1, Appendix 4 b. See note 2, Appendix 4 c. See note 3, Appendix 4 Residential construction activity accounts for around 69% of all employment growth (approx. 23, workers out of the 32, in construction and infrastructure occupations). Non-residential 9% Residential 69% * Growth additional to a baseline of existing employees in C & I occupations in the Auckland economy: 162, 6

9 Annual Employment Growth The annual employment growth in the top 62 skilled construction and infrastructure occupations reflects the timing and annual rate of growth of the pipeline of anticipated construction sector activity. Based on historical sector patterns, employment growth will be met, in part, by: reallocation of existing capacity movement of workers across sub-sectors workers returning to the sector relocation of existing C&I workers to Auckland, and innovation relating to specific work tasks/processes Further employment growth will be met by the recruitment of workers to the sector. Employment growth ( ) by ANZSCO skill level In the first five years, the total 32, employment growth in construction and infrastructure occupations in Auckland is comprised of: 34% growth in skill level 1 occupations 32% growth across skill levels 2 and 3 occupations 34% growth across skill levels 4 and 5 occupations Cumulative employment growth ( ) by anzsco skill level Employment growth (all economy) baseline , 5 year total Skill level 1 Skill level 2 Skill level 3 Skill level 4 Skill level employees 19% 465 employees 15% 8 employees 25% Skill level 1 Skill level 2 Skill level 3 Skill level 4 Skill level 5 11,5 employees 34% 245 employees 7% For brief description of skill level key: see Note 4, Appendix 4 7

10 Direct Construction Sector Employment Growth ( ) (by sub-sector pipeline) Total increase: 11,8 Civil Pipeline Employment Growth Non Residential Pipeline Employment Growth Residential Pipeline Employment Growth Occupation Growth ( ) * Project Builders Carpenters and Joiners Commercial Cleaners Electricians * Construction Project Manager Plumbers Building and Plumbing Labourers Painting Trades Workers Other Miscellaneous Labourers Civil Engineering Professionals Architectural, Building and Surveying Technicians Plasterers Contract, Program and Project Administrators Policy and Planning Managers Roof Tilers Electrical Distribution Trades Workers Truck Drivers Structural Steel Construction Workers Bricklayers and Stonemasons Telecommunications Trades Workers Floor Finishers Wall and Floor Tilers Concreters Earthmoving Plant Operators Glaziers Other Mobile Plant Operators Handypersons Industrial, Mechanical and Production Engineers Electrical Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians Other Machine Operators Electrical Engineers Other Building and Engineering Technicians Metal Fitters and Machinists Cabinetmakers Drillers, Miners and Shot Firers Other Stationary Plant Operators Engineering Managers Production Managers Electronic Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians Motor Mechanics Sheetmetal Trades Workers Structural Steel and Welding Trades Workers Gardeners Purchasing and Supply Logistics Clerks Insulation and Home Improvement Installers Paving and Surfacing Labourers Supply and Distribution Managers Technical Sales Representatives Architects and Landscape Architects Civil Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians Clay, Concrete, Glass, Stone Processing Machine Operators Industrial Spraypainters Garden and Nursery Labourers Freight and Furniture Handlers Forklift Drivers Metal Casting, Forging and Finishing Trades Workers Wood Machinists and Other Wood Trades Workers Paper and Wood Processing Machine Operators Fencers Geologists and Geophysicists Other Engineering Professionals Transport and Despatch Clerks Timber and Wood Process Workers Key growth areas Building construction trades Skilled labourers Building installation & completion trades Project management & administration Engineering professionals & technicians 4 2 Skill level 1 Skill level 2 Skill level 3 Skill level 4 Skill level 5 * See Note 5, Appendix 4 8 Page 8 to be viewed with page 9

11 Direct Construction Sector Employment Growth ( ): Occupations by ANZSCO Skill Level skill level 1 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 1,5 1, 5 Project Builder Construction Project Manager Chief Engineering Professionals Policy and Planning Managers Industrial, Mechanical and Production Engineers Electrical Engineers Engineering Managers Production Managers Supply and Distribution Managers Techinical Sales Representatives Growth: 495 Residential and commercial projects will employ over 35 project builders and 6 further construction project managers. Architects and Landscape Architects Geologists and Geophysicists Other Engineering Professionals skill level Truck Drivers Structural Steel Construction Workers Earthmoving Plant Operators Other Mobile Plant Operators Other Machine Operators Drillers, Miners and Shot Firers Other Stationary Plant Operators Purchasing and Supply Logistics Clerks Insulation and Home Improvement Installers Clay, Concrete, Glass and Stone Processing Machine Operators Industrial Spraypainters Growth: 55 Specialised plant operators and truck drivers account for 5% of growth with an additional 21% being structural and steel workers. Forklift Drivers Paper and Wood Porcessing Machine Operators Transport and Despatch Clerks skill level Architectural, Building and Surveying Technicians skill level 3 1,4 1,2 1, Carpenters and Joiners Electricians Plumbers Page 9 to be viewed with page 8 Painting Trades Workers Contract, Program and Project Plasterers Roof Tilers Electrical Distribution Trades Workers Electrical Engineering Bricklayers and Stonemasons Telecommunications Trades Workers Floor FInishers Other Building and Engineering Wall and Floor Tilers Glaziers Metal Fitters and Machinists Cabinetmakers Electronic Engineering Motor Mechanics Sheetmetal Trades Workers Growth: 45 Employment growth of 3 technicians and draftspeople; 15 project support personnel. Growth: 4 Residential and commercial building will generate employment for over 12 carpenters and joiners. Electricians, plumbers/drainlayers/gasfitters and other construction services account for another 12. Structural Steel and Welding Trades Workers Civil Engineering Draftspersons Gardeners Metal Casting, Forging and Finishing Trades Workers Wood Machinists and Other Wood Trades Workers 9 skill level Commercial Cleaners Building and Plumbing Labourers Other Miscellaneous Labourers Concreters Handypersons Paving and Surfacing Labourers Garden and Nursery Labourers Comments relate to occupation employment growth directly in Construction sector. For brief description of skill level key, see Note 4, Appendix 4. Freight and Furniture Handlers Growth: 185 In addition to over 8 commercial cleaners, increased employment for over 8 other skilled labourers. Fencers Timber and Wood Process Workers

12 Auckland Economy Employment Growth in C & I Occupations ( ) 5 Occupation Growth ( ) *Project Builder Other Miscellaneous Labourers Policy and Planning Managers Carpenters and Joiners *Commercial Cleaners Truck Drivers Contract, Program and Project Administrators Civil Engineering Professionals Electricians Building and Plumbing Labourers Motor Mechanics Purchasing and Supply Logistics Clerks Construction Project Manager Plumbers Other Machine Operators Architectural, Building and Surveying Technicians Metal Fitters and Machinists Production Managers Gardeners Painting Trades Workers Architects and Landscape Architects Transport and Despatch Clerks Supply and Distribution Managers Garden and Nursery Labourers Industrial, Mechanical and Production Engineers Structural Steel and Welding Trades Workers Other Building and Engineering Technicians Earthmoving Plant Operators Technical Sales Representatives Plasterers Telecommunications Trades Workers Electrical Distribution Trades Workers Forklift Drivers Sheetmetal Trades Workers Structural Steel Construction Workers Cabinetmakers Other Mobile Plant Operators Handypersons Electrical Engineers Roof Tilers Bricklayers and Stonemasons Freight and Furniture Handlers Floor Finishers Other Stationary Plant Operators Engineering Managers Other Engineering Professionals Concreters Electrical Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians Wall and Floor Tilers Glaziers Electronic Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians Insulation and Home Improvement Installers Clay, Concrete, Glass, Stone Processing Machine Operators Paper and Wood Processing Machine Operators Metal Casting, Forging and Finishing Trades Workers Drillers, Miners and Shot Firers Civil Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians Industrial Spraypainters Timber and Wood Process Workers Wood Machinists and Other Wood Trades Workers Geologists and Geophysicists Paving and Surfacing Labourers Fencers Total increase: 32, Wider Economy (Increase of 2,2) Direct C&I (Increase of 11,8) Key growth areas Building construction trades Skilled labourers Building installation & completion trades Structural / steel trades Truck drivers, motor mechanics, plant operators Project management & administration Engineering professionals & technicians 5 Skill level 1 Skill level 2 Skill level 3 Skill level 4 Skill level 5 * See Note 5, Appendix 4 1 Page 1 to be viewed with page 11

13 Auckland Economy Employment Growth in C & I Occupations ( ): By ANZSCO Skill Level skill level Project Builder Policy and Planning Managers Chief Engineering Professionals Employment growth of 115, Wider economy: 61, Constr. sector: 495 Construction Project Manager Production Managers Architects and Landscape Architects Relatively even employment growth in construction sector and wider economy. Growth of policy and planning management (15), civil and other engineering professionals (2), additional growth in project builders (1). Supply and Distribution Managers Industrial, Mechanical & Production Engineers Technical Sales Representatives Electrical Engineers Engineering Managers Other Engineering Professionals Geologists and Geophysicists skill level Truck Drivers Purchasing & Supply Logistics Clerks Other Machine Operators Employment growth of 465, Wider economy: 41, Constr. sector: 55 Transport and Despatch Clerks Earthmoving Plant Operators Forklift Drivers Structural Steel Construction Workers 88% of employment growth is outside construction sector. Growth associated with transport and logistics (26), specialised plant and machine operators (1). Other Mobile Plant Operators Other Stationary Plant Operators Insulation and Home Improvement Installers Clay, Concrete, Glass and Stone Processing Machine Operators Paper and Wood Porcessing Machine Operators Drillers, Miners and Shot Firers Industrial Spraypainters skill level 2 Employment growth of 245, Wider economy: 2, Constr. sector: 45 1,4 1,2 82% of employment growth is outside the 1, construction sector. Additional growth in 8 technicians (8) and contract and project administration (1) , 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Contract, Program & Project Administrators skill level 3 Carpenters and Joiners Electricians Motor Mechanics Plumbers Page 11 to be viewed with page 1 Architectural, Building and Surveying Technicians Metal Fitters and Machinists Gardeners Painting Trades Workers Other Building and Engineering Technicians Structural Steel and Welding Trades Workers Plasterers Telecommunications Trades Workers Electrical Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians Electrical Distribution Trades Workers Sheetmetal Trades Workers Cabinetmakers Electronic Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians Roof Tilers Bricklayers and Stonemasons Floor FInishers Wall and Floor Tilers Civil Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians Employment growth of 8, Wider economy: 4, Constr. sector: 4 Equal employment growth in construction sector and wider economy. Additional growth in building related trades (11), growth in motor mechanics (8) and metal/steel trades workers (8). Glaziers Metal Casting, Forging and Finishing Trades Workers Wood Machinists and Other Wood Trades Workers 11 skill level Other Miscellaneous Labourers Direct C&I Wider Economy Commercial Cleaners Building and Plumbing Labourers Garden and Nursery Labourers For brief description of skill level key, see Note 4, Appendix 4. Employment growth of 585, Wider economy: 4, Constr. sector: 185 Handypersons 68% of employment growth is outside construction sector. Increased employment for a range of skilled labourers (over 2). Freight and Furniture Handlers Concreters Timber and Wood Process Workers Paving and Surfacing Labourers Fencers

14 Employment Prospects The employment prospects in the construction industry in Auckland are positive. The workforce in the Auckland construction sector is anticipated to increase at an annual rate of 4.8% per year between , higher than national growth forecasts a for employment this sector. In a number of occupations b, including construction project managers, project builders, electricians, quantity surveyors and scaffolders, there are immediate and longer term employment opportunities as part of a wider range of career opportunities in construction and infrastructure across the Auckland region. Sector Occupations with strongest growth indications Projected Growth (annual average) Next 5 years Project builders including building project manager and 6.% Structural steel constructors (including scaffolding) 3.7% site foreman Construction Project Managers 6.% Carpenters and joiners 5.4% Contract and project administrators 3.6% Civil engineering professionals including quantity surveyors Architects, landscape architects 3.5% Bricklayers, plasterers 4.9% Clay and concrete machine operators, concreters, paving 4.7% Insulation installers and surfacing labourers Painting trades, glaziers, roof tilers, plumbers 4.4% Machine and plant operators including earthmoving and mobile plant 3.5% 3.5% Construction and infrastructure labourers 3.4% Building and plumbing labourers 4.3% Policy and planning managers 3.3% Electricians, electrical distribution, 4.% Technicians/draftsperson: Civil engineering, electrical, other 3.2% telecommunications trades building and engineering Technicians: Architectural, building Commercial cleaners 4.% 3.9% Managers: Engineering, production, supply and distribution Engineers: Electrical, industrial mechanical, other 3.% Sheetmetal workers, structural steel and welding, metal fitters 3.% a. See note 6, Appendix 4 b. See note 7, Appendix 4 12

15 Appendix 1: Auckland s Construction Pipeline Auckland has the largest share of forecast levels of growth for building and construction in New Zealand. Auckland s construction sector is predicted to grow from $8.2bn in the 212/13 year to $11.8bn in 218/19 (a 44% increase) and on to $12.2bn by 223 (48% higher than 212/13). Auckland s construction sector pipeline has been calculated from a combination of data sources including: actual expenditure and committed funding for work programmes forward work programmes drawn from plans from agencies such as NZTA and Auckland Council assessments of current and planned residential building growth estimates of commercial intentions that draw from capital formation rates applied to business turnover projections, and household growth futures The combination of this information provides the first cut at estimating the demand pressures likely to be faced by construction sector businesses over the short to medium term. Changes in both the non residential and civil work streams will be monitored continually as large projects in these areas are more susceptible to delay or being halted altogether, than are the workflows in the residential sector. These shifts can release capacity for other projects in construction. The current pipeline scenario (as developed) is based on: Residential activity continuing to gain momentum as dwelling consent numbers (while trending upwards) are still slightly below 27 levels and consents for apartment blocks have re-emerged. Residential growth is anticipated to further accelerate with the approval of Special Housing Areas. Non residential sector performance projections are based on a standard combination of scenario modelling of export and industry performance, extrapolation of recent trends, and industry views of future. Non-residential consents value is increasing and while they do not fluctuate as significantly as residential consents they are well below 27 levels. Infrastructure growth in Auckland is led by strong commitment in roading (around 5% of total investment) and water projects. A large number of civil projects are or will be underway (eg Western Ring Route SH2, AMETI, Watercare Central Interceptor infrastructure, Auckland International Airport, line and broadband networks). Infrastructure figures include a range of projects with this forecast reflecting the industry s increasing expectation of sector growth as funding is committed for forward plans. Total Construction Sector Outlook by Workstream ($m 213) ($m) 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 216/17 217/18 218/19 219/2 22/21 221/22 222/23 Residential Non Residential Civil Total

16 Appendix 2: Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations (ANZSCO) ANZSCO assigns an occupation to one of five skill levels. A skill level is based on the range and complexity of tasks performed in a particular role. Generally, a skill level is measured by the level or amount of required formal education and training, on-the-job training, and previous experience. The greater the range and complexity of the tasks, the higher the skill level of an occupation. Skill level does not relate to the qualifications obtained by an individual, but to the range and complexity of the tasks they do at work. ANZSCO Skill Level Formal education and training Experience and on-job training ANZSCO Skill Level 1 Normally a bachelor degree or higher qualification At least five years of relevant experience may substitute for the formal qualification. In some instances relevant experience and/or on-the-job training may be required in addition to the formal qualification ANZSCO Skill Level 2 NZ Register Diploma At least three years of relevant experience may substitute for the formal qualifications listed. In some instances relevant experience and/or on-the-job training may be required in addition to the formal qualification. ANZSCO Skill Level 3 NZ Register Level 4 qualification At least three years of relevant experience may substitute for the formal qualifications listed above. In some instances relevant experience and/or on-the-job training may be required in addition to the formal qualification. ANZSCO Skill Level 4 NZ Register Level 2 or 3 qualification At least one year of relevant experience may substitute for the formal qualifications listed above. In some instances relevant experience and/or on-the-job training may be required in addition to the formal qualification. ANZSCO Skill Level 5 NZ Register Level 1 qualification Compulsory secondary education For some occupations a short period of on-the-job training may be required in addition to or instead of the formal qualification. In some instances, no formal qualification or on-thejob training may be required Refer to: ANZSCO - Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations, 213, Version 1.2 available at 14

17 Appendix 3: Development and Conceptual Structure of Auckland Construction and Infrastructure Occupation Model (ACIOM) A working group comprising of construction sector businesses (including Hawkins, Dominion Constructors, Naylor Love Construction and Fletcher Construction Building and Interiors) were involved throughout the ACIOM creation process to provide expert industry knowledge and advice on inputs and sense check outputs. An industry labour profile was significantly refined through the working group process through inputs relating to crew structure, labour cost rates and adoption of an industry standard methodology to disaggregate construction projects into their component parts for ease of analysis. The top 62 occupations (at the 4 digit ANZSCO level) in the C&I industry profile derived from Census 213 provided the basis of crew mix. Some of these occupations were disaggregated further (to 6 digit levels) to better capture and reflect construction industry views of key occupations. Current and anticipated construction and infrastructure work programmes contribute to a snapshot of the economy and provide a robust view of the next 5 years, and a suitable view out to 1 years of forecast activity but beyond this technological and building practice changes are such that it would no longer be as relevant. These work programmes (which form an input to the model) can be revised to reflect the dynamic nature of investment activity that drives the sector. This information supported the development of the Auckland Construction and Infrastructure Occupations Model (ACIOM). ACIOM is an extension to the Auckland Economic Futures Model used by Auckland Council. The ACIOM translates estimates of total employment growth generated by the Economic Futures Model and the projections of industry activity into estimates of growth in each occupation. The Economic Futures model takes a multi-regional view of the Auckland economy, which means it places Auckland within the national context and provides a view of the future to 236. The ACIOM modelling process has been limited to provide a 1 year view with rolling annual labour totals for each 6 month interval. This enables good confidence in a 5 year key occupations outlook, and the 1 year outlook providing a more general indication of where the industry is heading. Standard inputs Population growth Export projects Fixed capital formation Productivity changes Inputs C&I specific inputs Current and future work programmes - Residential - Non Residential - Civil Future change Productivity changes Auckland Economic Futures Model Auckland Occupations Profile ACIOM C&I Occupations Profile Outputs by year Gross output ($m) Value added or GDP ($m) Employment Outputs C&I Sector Key Occupations Employment Outlook 15

18 Appendix 4: Notes 1. C&I = construction and infrastructure 2. this growth profile does not take into account current demand or demand due to attrition from the existing workforce. See Appendix 3 for an overview of the Auckland Construction and Infrastructure Occupation Model (ACIOM) 3. employment growth based on ACIOM. See Appendix 3 for an overview of the Auckland Construction and Infrastructure Occupation Model (ACIOM) 4. Brief description of key: (see Appendix 2 for full description of ANZSCO skill level) Skill level 1: Bachelors degree or equivalent experience Skill level 2: NZ Register Diploma or similar Skill level 3: NZ Register Level 4 qualification or similar Skill level 4: NZ Register Level 2 or 3 qualification or similar Skill level 5: NZ Register Level 1 qualification or similar 5. these two occupations were disaggregated from the single construction manager category. The project builder subcategory requires further explanation. Many existing project builders have completed trades qualifications (NZ Census, 213). The ANZSCO definition of Project Builder is plans, organises, directs, controls and coordinates the construction, alteration and renovation of dwellings and other buildings, and the physical and human resources involved in the building process. Registration or licensing is required. At least five years of relevant experience may substitute for the formal qualification. 6. Occupation Outlook Report, 214, MBIE forecasts 2.6% per year between See for example: D//ISSLMar214.pdf 741A727A9D5//INZ193.pdf Workforce Skills Roadmap for Auckland Construction Sector ( ). Preliminary Report Prepared for: Auckland Construction Sector on behalf of Construction and Infrastructure Sponsor Group. June