Growth of CDMA Market India Perspective

Transcription

1 Growth of CDMA Market India Perspective ZTE grants a free, irrevocable license to 3GPP2 and its Organizational Partners to incorporate text or other copyrightable material contained in the contribution and any modifications thereof in the creation of 3GPP2 publications; to copyright and sell in Organizational Partner's name any Organizational Partner's standards publication even though it may include all or portions of this contribution; and at the Organizational Partner's sole discretion to permit others to reproduce in whole or in part such contribution or the resulting Organizational Partner's standards publication. ZTE is also willing to grant licenses under such contributor copyrights to third parties on reasonable, non-discriminatory terms and conditions for purpose of practicing an Organizational Partner s standard which incorporates this contribution. This document has been prepared by ZTE to assist the development of specifications by 3GPP2. It is proposed to the Committee as a basis for discussion and is not to be construed as a binding proposal on contributors. ZTE specifically reserves the right to amend or modify the material contained herein and to any intellectual property of contributors other than provided in the copyright statement above.

2 Agenda Indian Telemarket Snapshot CDMA Always the Choice for India Technology Leading to the New Era ZTE s Dedication

3 India Telecom Market Wirless Subscribers Development in india (mil) GDP per capita (PPP): $2,900 (2008 est.) GDP real growth rate: 7.3% (2008 est.) Population: 1.17 billion (July 2009 est.) Others Idea Tata Teleservices Vodafone Essar BSNL Reliance Bharti Airtel Wirless Market Share in india 2009Q2 Tata Teleservices 9% Others 8% Idea 10% Vodafone Essar 18% BSNL 13% Bharti Airtel 24% Reliance 18% ARPU (Rs/subs/months) Q1 07Q2 07Q3 07Q4 08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 GSM Blended ARPU CDMA Blended ARPU

4 Wireless Data A Huge Potential Market Broadband Subs Development in India % 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% Dial up Internet ARPU (Rs/subs/months) Q1 07Q2 07Q3 07Q4 08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 broadband subs(mil) Growth rate 0.0% Q2 07Q3 07Q4 08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q % 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% Broadband Subs Penetration % 22.34% 23.53% 3.63% 4.82% 6.24% 0.04% 0.10% 0.45% 0.56% For copper line is relatively difficult to be deployed in india, wireless broadband will be a better choice. For less than 7 million broadband subs now, the wireless broadband market is a potential market for each operator in india.

5 Network Coverage The Key Factor in India Market 800 Global Telecom Market Revenue Distribution and Trend Wireless Voice Market Share (mil)2009q2 Revenue ($Bn) Mobile Voice Broadband Fixed Voice Mobile Data Aircel 5.23% Tata Teleservices 8.91% Shyam Telelink 0.33% HFCL Infotel 0.09% MTNL 1.05% BSNL 12.67% Reliance 18.57% Vodafone Essar 17.81% Bharti Airtel 23.81% Idea 9.99% Spice 0.99% BPL Mobile 0.53% Source from YG group and ZTE Circles Number Covered by Operater in India The bigger operators almost have all service area s license in india. The operators, whose networks cover more areas, take up more market share. It is important to deploy network quickly and widely, to develop subscribers fast.

6 Business Models for India Operators Model Sub.Ratio Total subs 2,000,000 5,333,333 9,333,333 15,333,333 20,000,000 Vioce 1,200,000 3,200,000 5,600,000 9,200,000 12,000,000 60% 1X DATA 400,000 1,066,667 1,866,667 3,066,667 4,000,000 20% GOTA 300, ,000 1,400,000 2,300,000 3,000,000 15% EVDO 100, , , ,667 1,000,000 5% DO Carrier ,278 1,667 Model 1 Total subs 2,000,000 5,333,333 9,333,333 15,333,333 20,000,000 Vioce 1,000,000 2,666,667 4,666,667 7,666,667 10,000,000 50% 1X DATA 200, , ,333 1,533,333 2,000,000 10% GOTA 200, , ,333 1,533,333 2,000,000 10% EVDO 600,000 1,600,000 2,800,000 4,600,000 6,000,000 30% DO Carrier 1,000 2,667 4,667 7,667 10,000 Model 2 Total subs 3,000,000 8,000,000 14,000,000 23,000,000 30,000,000 Vioce 1,800,000 4,800,000 8,400,000 13,800,000 18,000,000 60% 1X DATA 600,000 1,600,000 2,800,000 4,600,000 6,000,000 20% GOTA 450,000 1,200,000 2,100,000 3,450,000 4,500,000 15% EVDO 150, , ,000 1,150,000 1,500,000 5% DO Carrier ,167 1,917 2,500 $ Voice and Data ARPU Forecast Voice 8.0 1X 6.0 GOTA 4.0 EVDO Subscribers Forecast 25,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 15,333,333 10,000,000 9,333,333 5,000,000 5,333, ,000, Assumption : Model 0 is the basic development model. Total CDMA subs will reach 20 million by 2014, EV-DO subs take up 5%. Model 1 is changed base on Model 0. it is mainly develop EV-DO subs, and it will take up 30% Model 2 is changed base on Model 0. it is mainly develop CDMA total subs, and it will reach 30 million by 2014.

7 Revenue Growth for Different Scenarios Revenue 0 64,200, ,640, ,194, ,135, ,212,976 Voice $25,200,000 $87,780,000 $166,782,000 $266,472,150 $362,618,183 1X DATA $12,000,000 $41,800,000 $79,420,000 $126,891,500 $172,675,325 GOTA $18,000,000 $62,700,000 $119,130,000 $190,337,250 $259,012,988 EVDO $9,000,000 $30,360,000 $55,862,400 $86,434,368 $113,906,481 DO Carrier ,278 1,667 1,600,000,000 1,400,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,000,000, ,000, ,000,000 CDMA Revenue forecast Revenue 1 93,000, ,010, ,289, ,003,583 1,244,633,690 Voice $21,000,000 $73,150,000 $138,985,000 $222,060,125 $302,181,819 1X DATA $6,000,000 $20,900,000 $39,710,000 $63,445,750 $86,337,663 GOTA $12,000,000 $41,800,000 $79,420,000 $126,891,500 $172,675,325 EVDO $54,000,000 $182,160,000 $335,174,400 $518,606,208 $683,438,884 DO Carrier 1,000 2,667 4,667 7,667 10,000 Revenue 2 96,300, ,960, ,791,600 1,005,202,902 1,362,319,463 Voice $37,800,000 $131,670,000 $250,173,000 $399,708,225 $543,927,274 1X DATA $18,000,000 $62,700,000 $119,130,000 $190,337,250 $259,012,988 GOTA $27,000,000 $94,050,000 $178,695,000 $285,505,875 $388,519,481 EVDO $13,500,000 $45,540,000 $83,793,600 $129,651,552 $170,859,721 DO Carrier ,167 1,917 2,500 Balance $120,000,000 $249,600,000 $389,376,000 $539,934,720 $701,915, % ,000, ,000,000 Assumption : Revenue 0 Revenue 1 Revenue 2 Balance Month fee per site :$5000, including rental, power, labor cost, depreciation of equipment and so on. The month fee increase 4% per year new sites increase by 2014 China telecom reference :DO traffic model :BHCA 0.3, MOU 1800s, Active ratio 40%, active user per sector 12

8 Contents Indian Telemarket Snapshot CDMA Always the Choice for India Technology Leading to the New Era ZTE s Dedication

9 3G Spectrum Resource Uncertainty India 3G Spectrum Resources CDMA 800M Hz 3G UMTS: Upto 4 blocks of 2*5MHz in the 2.1GHz band to be auctioned, 1 block reserved for BSNL/MTNL Source from: DoT Every vendor have 2~4 CDMA 800MHz frequency points in each circle, based on different requirement 1X&DO can be configured flexibly. EV DO is more fast than UMTS for vendor construct network. The vendor who chooses CDMA always construct Pan India network, it is Pan India coverage. Delay and Fierce Competition of 3G Spectrum give CDMA operators competing edge

10 CDMA Confidence CDMA 24% 120 GSM 76% 136 GSM & CDMA Subs Q1 07Q2 07Q3 07Q4 08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 GSM Subs (mil) 213 CDMA Subs (mil) Mobile Voice Subs Forecast in India (mil) CDMA ARPU (Rs/subs/months) Q1 07Q2 07Q3 07Q4 08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 1 GSM and CDMA all developed subscribers very fast. 2 More than 35 million wireless subs increase in each quarter of million voice subs increased margin in the coming two years. CDMA Postpaid ARPU CDMA Prepaid ARPU Source from: TRAIL, Informa

11 Contents Indian Telemarket Snapshot CDMA Always the Choice for India Technology Leading to the New Era ZTE s Dedication

12 Innovation to Win the Future Market

13 Green Network Helps operators save energy and reduce radiation to build a green network by taking into account materials, network construction, O & M and recycling. network construction O & M Ensures low noise and low radiation while operating the equipment by minimizing the pollution. Wide coverage and large capacity effectively improves BTS coverage and reduces the quantity of equipment rooms. power consumption 63% reduced One BTS saves 5840 kwh per year Traditional New on average, which is equivalent to reducing 6 tons of CO 2 indirectly, which is further equivalent to planting 600 trees per year. ZTE s equipment has passed product safety certifications such as CE, FCC and UL and can ensure green environment protection during operation and maintenance. materials ZTE actively advocates green environment protection and all of its equipment is free of lead and compliant with RoHS.

14 Leading Innovation for Indian Market 4GV Solution (EVRC-NB) T-Phone CDT (Call Detail Trace) Keep competitiveness based Decrease TCO of RF network To intelligentize network on limited spectrum optimization optimization Improve 1X capacity more than 35% in the field Innovation on traditional network optimization Log each call s information, e.g. Ec/Io, Rx, NeighborList Free 1X carrier to launch EVDO service Shorten the time to market by simplifying work flow of RF Drive Test Troubleshoot based on history CDT data Minimized BTS Ran Sharing In-Building Coverage Solution Minimized design and larger capacity, oriented to future evolution Faster transportation and installation, faster rollout Enlarge coverage by RRU mounted on tower Saving CAPEX and OPEX Saving Investment Make the best of network resources Shorten time to market, focus on various services Has been successfully validated in India Carriers Economical and flexible network coverage solution Provide seamless network to enhance experience of subscribers Convenience and ease-of-use for end users and user-oriented business environment

15 4GV & RC4 Solution Enhance 1X Network Capacity Improve 1X capacity more than 35% in the field and now ready to be deployed. 1X advance will enhance capacity up to 400% in coming year. Free carriers to launch Multi Carrier DO service. CDMA Dynamic RC3/RC4 solve the bottleneck of limited Walsh code resources. Increase service Channel resource from 64 Walsh to 128. Decrease the probability of overload of system in dense urban area.

16 T-Phone Solution- Portable Drive Test Tool T_PHONE---- a portable drive test tool designed by ZTE, enables network optimization staffs complete data acquisition and analysis by CNT/CNA only with one ordinary test handset. It changes professional drive test into common work which you can do anytime, anywhere. T-phone replaces traditional DT tools and teams: Laptops, GPS devices, Invertors, optimization experts, etc. Innovation on traditional network optimization. Shorten the time to market by simplifying work flow of RF DT. Decrease TCO of RF network optimization.

17 CDT (Call Detail Trace) - Intelligent RF Network Optimization CDT can gather and record raw data from different subscribers' call in the network, which reflect all the subscribers' real experience. Accurately locate any one subscriber, and playback the information. CDT can analyze mass-level data, and automatically make reports. Call Traffic Analysis Ec/Io Analysis Save a big sum cost of DT and RF optimization, by accurately and rapidly locating the network problem areas. Facilitate the processing of subscribers' complaints, and improve the experience of customer. Easily find potential problems in the network through abundant network reports.

18 In-Building Solution Improves the Penetration RRU BBU 3 Flexible Indoor Coverage Solution: BBU+RRU+DAS Pico BTS BBU+RRU+ANT Pico BTS Indoor Coverage Pico DAS DAS RRU BBU+RRU+DAS Indoor Coverage DAS RRU BBU+RRU+ANT Coverage BBU RRU BBU Quick Deployment & Flexible Expansion & High Subscribers Experience & Low TCO

19 Dual-mode System to Prove Future Evolution launch MIMO ready Higher processing ability 3G system 3G/4G system LTE with MIMO support Add LTE Modules 2*2 MIMO 20MHz/10MHz/5MHz bandwidth CDMA BBU Upgrade to LTE by adding Baseband Processing board

20 ZTE CDMA Roadmap 4GV-NB MEID(pESN) Mobility restriction of EV-DO CDT (Call Detail Trace) IP Multiplexing over Abis IP BTS Support RRU Ran sharing T_phone EV-DO Rev B Phase 1 DL 9.3Mbps(3X) UL 5.4Mbps(3X) Platinum BCMCS EV-DO Rev B Phase 2 DL14.7Mbps(3X) UL 5.4Mbps(3X) CDMA20001X Enhancement CDMA and LTE dual Mode BTS HRPD LTE IWK CDMA2000 1X LTE IWK EV-DO Enhancement Optimized HRPD LTE IWK Self Organized Network Released Planned Planning

21 Contents Indian Telemarket Snapshot CDMA Always the Choice for India Technology Leading to the New Era ZTE s Dedication

22 ZTE CDMA Global Applications Nortel Motorola A L World CDMA Network Market Share by capacity in Q Others ZTE A L Huawei Nortel Motorola Others 25% 30.1% 18.4% 13.9% 8.9% 3.7% Huawei Source: FROST & SULLIVAN ( ) ZTE CDMA Applications: Deployed in Over 70 countries Serving Over 120 operators Capacity Over 240 million CDMA2000 1X & 1xEV DO CDMA2000 1X CDMA2000 1xEV DO None The Global leading CDMA industry expert Ranked first in BTS shipment for three consecutive years Wins the biggest share in the global emerging market ZTE EV DO Applications: Deployed in 70 countries In Morocco, WANA cooperated with ZTE to Serving build the first CDMA2000 Over 120 operators 1xEV DO Rev.B trial network in the world.

23 ZTE CDMA R & D Strength and Investment R & D institutes ZTE has 15 R & D institutes in China, USA, Sweden, India and Pakistan. ZTE commits over 10% of its annual revenue to R & D. ZTE has over 2500 engineers and experts engaged in CDMA R & D.

24 ZTE s Achievements in CDMA Industry 3G CDMA Industry Achievement Award InfoVision Award Wednesday, November 19, 2008: ZTE Corporation has received 3G CDMA Industry Achievement Award for Network Technology Innovation. Wednesday, October 1, 2008: ZTE Corporation has received InfoVision award for the innovative contribution to progress in the information industry.

25 Devoted to CDMA Standards and Development Standards Contributions Partners Submitted over hundreds of technical proposals to the 3GPP2 TSGS in past years. Involved various fields of standardization, such as cdma2000 1x/HRPD enhancement, Inter RAT technology interworking, and Femto technology. Organized 3GPP2 Super meetings/sc/op meetings in China. Main contributor for expending CDMA industry to align with CDG Attending various technical and marketing forums to enlarge the whole industry by introducing new functions and services. Self developed GoTa system and other specific technology to enrich the whole industry. TM Strategy partners: Qualcomm, Cisco, Intel, TI, IBM 3GPP2 should pay close attention to the requirements from merging CDMA markets 3GPP2 should do the best to solve the specific issue raised in merging marketing, rather than understood them as vendor specific issue

26 ZTE CDMA Success Stories China China Telecom Large-scale successful swapping; full-service quality network; EV-DO with 10 million lines. India Reliance Biggest gateway office and Ap interface office to reduce TCO in the world India TATA Largest BSC commercial traffic record in the world USA Aircell Built the first ATG EV-DO in-flight radio network in the world for Aircell Czech Mobilkom Fulfilled 450M L-band customization for Mobilkom within 3 months Indonesia Smart Assist operation, operation & maintenance trusteeship to improve operators competitiveness

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