Technology Roadmap: Wi-Fi, WiMAX and Cellular Networks. Phil Belanger December 6, 2006
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1 Technology Roadmap: Wi-Fi, WiMAX and Cellular Networks Phil Belanger December 6, 2006
2 Novarum Wireless Broadband Review Analyzes the performance of Metro Wi-Fi, Cellular and WiMAX Testing from user perspective Performance validation Coverage validation Technology assessment Business model insight First independent validation of wireless broadband services Service availability, performance, value, ease of use Initial reports available now Q Review of Wireless Broadband State of wireless broadband services Analysis of Wireless Broadband Services for six cities Some surprising results 2
3 Metro Wi-Fi in Philadelphia 3
4 Philadelphia Performance Snapshot EarthLink Feather Wi-Fi 1040 kbps download 173 kbps upload Verizon 1xEVDO 791 kbps download 117 kbps upload Cingular HSDPA 714 kbps download 87 kbps upload Sprint 1xEVDO 495 kbps download 85 kbps upload Small sample size so far, more testing to come 4
5 Q3 Anaheim Summary Sprint is best service overall 100% service availability with good performance 420 kbps down, 78 kbps up 286 msec delay EarthLink is best performance 811 kbps down, 380 kbps up 146 msec delay 72% Service Availability Best Metro Wi-Fi service in Q3 Portable and fixed service Smooth mobility Secure and open 5
6 Q Metro Wi-Fi Review Metro Wi-Fi has competitive availability in Q3 cities Average 60% service availability within coverage area Metro Wi-Fi is more available than true 3G Cellular services address this by falling back to 2G Incomplete service availability is an issue for Wi-Fi services Metro Wi-Fi delivers twice throughput of 3G 869 kbps average download throughput on nets tested in Q3 256 kbps upload throughput Each Metro Wi-Fi network has a unique personality Business model dictates coverage and performance Metro Wi-Fi is immature service compared to 3G Node density, service availability, ease of use The best Metro Wi-Fi nets can deliver residential broadband Subscribers will need CPE device Residential broadband is the toughest application for Metro Wi-Fi 6
7 Q Metro Cellular Review 3G broadband data is not ubiquitous Average 34% service availability for 3G service in Q3 cities Average 78% combined 2/3G availability within tested area Metro Wi-Fi is more available than true 3G Metro Cellular services fall back to 2G to provide complete service But performance suffers EDGE and 1xRTT are OK for smart phones but not laptop users A cellular data service was the best service in each of the Q3 cities Metro 3G delivers 300 to 400 kbps download throughput With 100 kbps uploads and high delay HSDPA is best cellular data service, but has limited availability Cellular data services are easy to use Cellular data services are highly priced 7
8 WiMAX? No mobile WiMAX deployments to test Fixed WiMAX used as backhaul in some nets Mobile WiMAX coming in 2007 Cellular and Wi-Fi are raising the bar for WiMAX Wi-Fi performs surprisingly well Cellular 3G roll out and evolution continues What s the role of WiMAX? Mobile WiMAX services will need to deliver > 2 Mbps end user throughput to compete. It s about the economics 8
9 Metro Wi-Fi Agenda Changing First Phase Metro Wi-Fi Agenda Politics Free Wi-Fi Coverage Cool demos Single radio mesh Large coverage APs If we build it, they will come New Metro Wi-Fi Agenda Business Commercial services Coverage, capacity, QoS Multiple applications Scalable architecture Complete metro systems Solid business case 9
10 Technology Roadmaps Wi-Fi Evolution n coming in 2008 Potentially 100 Mbps downlinks in outdoor applications And e and s and Unlicensed operation, ubiquitous clients, low cost clients WiMAX Evolution d shipping for fixed applications e mobile WiMAX coming in Mbps down, 3 Mbps up Licensed bands, mobility, flexible spectrum lower cost than cellular? 3G Cellular Evolution 1xEVDO => EVDO RevA => EVDO Rev B HSDPA => HSUPA => HSPA to 7 Mbps Down, 384 kbps to 5.8 Mbps Up Licensed bands, mobility, existing ecosystem 10
11 4G Technology Mix Combination of wireless technologies Licensed and unlicensed Local and wide area Fixed and mobile OFMD, MIMO Wi-Fi, WiMAX and cellular These technologies will co-exist There will be no single winner 11
12 Two Camps Forming WiMAX + Wi-Fi Intel, Motorola Cellular + Wi-Fi QUALCOMM Announced acquisition of Airgo this week Wi-Fi is the common denominator Unlicensed, low cost, high performance Already seeing dual mode cellular handsets Cellular + Wi-Fi Notebooks PCs All have Wi-Fi Integrated cellular now available WiMAX clients will be combined with Wi-Fi 12
13 Summary Wi-Fi can deliver Metro Wireless delivers twice the throughput of cellular data less than half the delay of cellular data systems. service availability is still a challenge 3G is not really ubiquitous in the US Rollout continues Performance of deployed wireless broadband networks constrained by economics not technology Can WiMAX deliver a compelling service? Two technology camps Wi-Fi + WiMAX versus Wi-Fi + Cellular 13
14 Thank you. Cutting through the wireless noise.
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