Advertising Spillovers: Implications for Returns from Advertising
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1 Advertising Spillovers: Implications for Returns from Advertising Navdeep Sahni Stanford GSB May, 2014
2 Advertising spillovers Substitution: ads shift sales from competitors to the advertiser Competitors lose Spillovers: Ads can remind people of other similar products Implications for consumer choice Competitors can gain from a firm s advertising Can explain heterogeneity in ad effects Comparison with similar products gains from advertising
3 Questions about spillovers from ads Can there be positive spillovers from advertising? Positive causal effect of ads on competitor s sales How big can the effect be? When do the spillovers occur? Can the advertiser control them? What is the effect of advertising frequency?
4 Two step approach Illustrate possible Ad effects - using a model Field experiment Evidence Positive spillovers Which competing firms are likely to gain The effect of intensity of advertising on spillovers
5 Road-map Empirical Context Experiment Design Evidence Impact of the Ad condition Effect of intensity of advertising Conclusion
6 Randomized field experiments on a restaurant search website Median time spent: 3 min
7 Users browse through lists of restaurants
8 Visit restaurant pages to get more information 90% of users visit at least one restaurant page
9 Generate a Sales Lead 17% of all users generate a sales lead
10 Multiple experimental restaurants 11 Experiments Total of 189,650 users (identified by cookies) Each experiment involves one focal restaurant in a geographic market One ad slot fixed and rest continued business as usual Track orders for experimental restaurants
11 Design experiments for unbiased measurement Two levels of randomization for every user session New Session p 1 1 p 1 Ad Condition Every Page No-Ad Condition Every Page p 2 1 p 2 1 Display Ad Display dummy ad Display dummy ad
12 Road-map Empirical Context Experiment Design Evidence Impact of the Ad condition Effect of intensity of advertising Conclusion
13 Estimate cross Ad effects 1004 Competitors in experimental markets Estimate cross-ad effect for each competitor Sales leads in Ad vs. No-Ad conditions Net of substitution and gain from reminders
14 Competing restaurants gain on average Average cross-ad effect across all competitors How big is this number? Coef. Std err Ad ** % of average competitor s size 4% of total competitor market 5 the avg. advertiser s gain How are the cross-ad effects distributed?
15 Competing restaurants gain on average Average cross-ad effect across all competitors How big is this number? Coef. Std err Ad ** % of average competitor s size 4% of total competitor market 5 the avg. advertiser s gain How are the cross-ad effects distributed?
16 Competing restaurants gain on average Average cross-ad effect across all competitors How big is this number? Coef. Std err Ad ** % of average competitor s size 4% of total competitor market 5 the avg. advertiser s gain How are the cross-ad effects distributed?
17 Heterogeneous effects of ads on competitors More than half point estimates positive 119 competitor restaurants get a positive significant cross ad effect Is the heterogeneity systematic?
18 Characteristics of the Competitors Position in the category Ad effect Measure for firm s standing in the category Ratings: 2-8 Category Share
19 Which competitors gain from advertising? 0.08% Mean Cross Ad effects by Ratings (Serving Advertiser's Cuisine, N=309) 0.04% 0.00% Rating < 5 Rating = 5 Rating = 6 Rating > %
20 Which competitors gain from advertising? 0.08% Mean Cross Ad effects by Ratings (Serving Advertiser's Cuisine, N=309) 0.08% Mean Cross Ad effects by Ratings (Not serving Advertiser's cuisine, N=695) 0.04% 0.04% 0.00% Rating < 5 Rating = 5 Rating = 6 Rating > % Rating < 5 Rating = 5 Rating = 6 Rating > % -0.04%
21 Which competitors gain from advertising?
22 Which competitors gain from advertising?
23 Which competitors gain from advertising? Serving Advertiser s Cuisine Serving a Different Cuisine DV: Cross Ad effect Rating 0.02** (0.01) Category Share 0.3* (0.1) (Category Share) 2-1.2** (0.2) Intercept -0.09** (0.04) Rating (0.003) Category Share 0.4 (0.3) (Category Share) (1.5) Intercept (0.02) Market fixed effect N 1004 All Coefs: 10 2 = Same-cuisine competitors with high rating gain
24 Road-map Empirical Context Experiment Design Evidence Impact of the Ad condition Effect of intensity of advertising Conclusion
25 Advertiser benefits from more ad exposure Same-Cuisine Competitors Advertiser 1 Ads ** (0.1) 0.06** (0.03) 4 Ads (0.2) 0.19** (0.06) 8 Ads (0.4) 0.07 (0.1) 11 Ads (0.6) 0.24 (0.17) Control for Num Pages N 189, ,650 All Coefs: 10 2 = Advertisers gain by going beyond 3 ad exposures
26 Conclusion Evidence for Spillovers Competitors gain 4% on avg. Cumulative effect across competitors is large High rating same-cuisine restaurants gain by 25% Impact of intensity of advertising Low intensity = Large spillovers Impacts ad-response curve Advertisers can reduce spillovers A mechanism explaining heterogeneity in ad effects Firm s position in the market affects impact of ads
27 Conclusion Evidence for Spillovers Competitors gain 4% on avg. Cumulative effect across competitors is large High rating same-cuisine restaurants gain by 25% Impact of intensity of advertising Low intensity = Large spillovers Impacts ad-response curve Advertisers can reduce spillovers A mechanism explaining heterogeneity in ad effects Firm s position in the market affects impact of ads
28 Conclusion Evidence for Spillovers Competitors gain 4% on avg. Cumulative effect across competitors is large High rating same-cuisine restaurants gain by 25% Impact of intensity of advertising Low intensity = Large spillovers Impacts ad-response curve Advertisers can reduce spillovers A mechanism explaining heterogeneity in ad effects Firm s position in the market affects impact of ads
29 Thank You!
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