The attractions of Spain as an insurance market

Transcription

1 The attractions of Spain as an insurance market Domingo Sugranyes, Executive Vice Chairman and CEO Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference Navigating the Sea of Change Puerto Banus, Spain, 8 June 2005

2 Section I Overview of the present environment Section II Scope for growth 2

3 Spain: an economic success story Strong growth... Average real per capita GDP growth Average employment growth % 2.6% 3.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% Spain U.K. France Italy Germany Spain U.K. France Italy Germany... has sped up convergence with the EU Unemployment rate GDP per capita as a % of the EU average 24.2% 97.3% 11.3% 10.8% 8.8% 87.0% Overview SPAIN Euro area Source: own calculations using IMF and EUROSTAT data.

4 Economic growth has spurred the development of the insurance market Non-life insurance premiums CAGR Life technical reserves CAGR 6.8% 6.6% 6.4% 22.4% 17.2% 11.7% 11.3% 2.3% 6.5% 0.2% Spain UK Italy France Germany Italy Spain UK France Germany Source: national insurance asociations and SIGMA. Overview 4

5 Spain: Non-life insurance and private retirement savings growth Non-life premiums Private retirement savings CAGR: 8.2 % 26, CAGR: 15.6 % 133, ,135 19,172 11,914 13,502 80,771 42, Pension Funds Life Insurance Mathematical Reserves Source: own calculations using ICEA data. Overview 5

6 Top 10 (1) direct insurance players in Spain: Development of market shares between 2000 and % 1.9% Largest gain 2004 market share 2000 market share Variation % 3.4% 12.4% 5.4% 0.9% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 0.7% 1.2% 3.8% 3.2% 6.7% 4.0% 0.9% 3.1% 3.4% 7.5% 3.2% 3.1% 0.8% 0.3% 2.6% 2.8% 3.4% -2.3% -4.1% MAPFRE(2) ALLIANZ GENERALI AXA CAIFOR AVIVA ZURICH BBVA CATALANA OCCIDENTE Largest loss -0.3% CASER 1) The 2000 figures are calculated on the basis of the companies consolidated in each group at the close of 2004, to show the actual gain in market share 2) Figures for MAPFRE as a whole. Between 2000 and 2004, CORPORACIÓN MAPFRE raised its market share by 0.4% to 9.3% Source: own calculations using ICEA data. Overview 6

7 Concentration in the largest EU insurance markets in % 10.4% 17.0% 40.7% 74.6% 73.2% 72.1% 11.8% 11.0% 11.0% 20.9% 22.5% 17.7% 60.0% 9.6% 17.0% 30.0% 25.6% 25.9% 19.5% 20.1% 11.9% 14.0% 17.6% 13.9% ITALY FRANCE UK GERMANY SPAIN TOP 1 TOP 5 TOP 10 TOP 15 Source: national insurance asociations Overview 7

8 Concentration in the Spanish insurance market 66.2% 68.8% 18.0% 18.6% 15.6% 17.1% 21.4% 18.8% 11.2% 14.3% No. 1 Top 5 Top 10 Top 20 Overview Source: own calculations using ICEA data. 8

9 Spain: Ranking of groups by funds and life insurance reserves in ,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 BSCH BBVA CAIXA MAPFRE(1) CAJA MADRID BANCO POPULAR BANCO SABADELL AHORRO CORPORACIÓN BANKINTER IBERCAJA AVIVA Mutual Funds Pension Funds Mathematical Reserves 1) CORPORACIÓN MAPFRE has an indirect 51% stake in MAPFRE VIDA and its asset management subsidiaries and a direct 30% stake in CAJA MADRID s asset management subsidiaries Overview Source: own calculations using ICEA and INVERCO data. 9 Million euros

10 Spain: Breakdown of Life technical reserves by product Unit-linked 20.6% Term Life 1.8% Retirement 23.1% Unit-linked 9.4% Term Life 2.2% Retirement 21.0% Savings 20.5% Savings 10.4% Annuities 44.0% Annuities 46.9% Source: ICEA Overview 10

11 Spain: Breakdown of Life technical reserves by distribution channel Insurance branches 3% Insurance branches 4% Agents 39% Bank branches 58% Agents 43% Bank branches 53% Source: ICEA. Overview 11

12 Spain: Breakdown of Life premiums (new business) by distribution channel Insurance branches 5% Agents 12% Other 7% Brokers 2% Insurance branches 7% Agents 14% Other 1% Brokers 5% Bank branches 74% Bank branches 73% Source: ICEA. Overview 12

13 Spain: tax treatment of savings Over the medium to long term, Life insurance provides the best tax-adjusted returns compared to the other savings instruments, as can be seen in the example provided below. Tax treatment of gains earned over: Less than 1 year 1 year 2 years 5 years Life insurance Marginal rate Marginal rate Marginal rate x (1-0.4) Marginal rate x (1-0.75) Bank deposits Marginal rate Marginal rate Marginal rate x (1-0.4) Marginal rate x (1-0.4) Shares and mutual funds Marginal rate 15% 15% 15% Bonds Marginal rate Marginal rate Marginal rate Marginal rate Example: Amount invested: 1000 Gain over a period of 5 years: 100 Tax paid vs. Life insurance Lowest bracket Middle bracket Highest bracket 15% 28% 45% Life insurance Shares and mutual funds Bank deposits Bonds Overview 13

14 Spain: Breakdown of Non-life written premiums by line of business Other 23% Other 26% Motor 46% Motor 43% Multi-peril 15% Multi-peril 16% Health 16% Health 15% Source: ICEA. Overview 14

15 Spain: Non-life premiums (new business) by distribution channel Bank branches 6% Phone sales 7% Insurance branches 12% Other 3% Agents 43% Phone sales 9% Other 1% Insurance branches 8% Internet 1% Bank branches 9% Agents 38% Brokers 29% Brokers 34% Source: ICEA. Overview 15

16 A comparison of Non-life combined ratios 95.3% 95.5% 20.6% 21.3% 99.2% 35.6% 103.7% 105.2% 25.1% 22.0% 74.7% 74.2% 63.6% 78.6% 83.2% Spain Italy UK France Germany Loss ratio Expense ratio 2003 figures. Source: CEA, Goldman Sachs Equity Research, ICEA Overview 16

17 Section I Overview of the present environment Section II Scope for growth 17

18 A comparison of the European insurance markets 6,000 Average GDP per capita = EUR 21,937 = market size 5,000 DEVELOPED MARKETS CH 4,000 UK IR 3,000 2,000 1,000 - LAT LIT GROWTH MARKETS PL SK SLO CZ H M P GR E CYP I F - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 B D SF A NL S DK NO L Average premium per capita = EUR 1,897 Scope for growth figures. Source: own calculations using SIGMA 3/2004.

19 Insurance penetration in % 9.0% 9.0% 8.6% 7.4% 7.0% 5.9% 5.0% 4.8% 3.2% 5.6% 2.4% 3.8% 3.1% 3.6% 2.6% 3.8% 3.2% UK France EU (1) Italy Germany Spain Non-life Life 1) All EU countries except Estonia, whose figures are not available Source: SIGMA. Penetration measured as % of Total Premiums on GDP Scope for growth 19

20 Breakdown of insurance premiums in 2003 Italy 65% 21% 4% 4% 3% 2% France 65% 12% 8% 8% 2% 5% U.K. 47% 17% 8% 15% 7% 6% Germany 46% 15% 21% 11% 4% 3% Spain 43% 26% 10% 13% 3% 5% Life Motor Accident and Health Property General Liability Other Non-Life Source: national insurance asociations Scope for growth 20

21 Evolution of households financial assets as a % of GDP 279.7% 223.6% 197.0% 181.0% 168.0% 272.5% 178.1% 162.5% 146.0% 146.5% UK Italy France Germany Spain Source: central banks, national accounts. Scope for growth 21

22 Europe: breakdown of households financial assets U.K. 26% 2% 11% 4% 54% 3% France 33% 2% 23% 3% 34% 5% Germany 36% 11% 10% 12% 30% 2% Italy 26% 23% 23% 11% 17% Spain 40% 3% 26% 12% 15% 4% Deposits and cash Bonds Shares Mutual funds Insurance and pensions Other U.K. and Germany data correspond to year 2003; France and Italy data correspond to September 2004; Spain data correspond to year Source: national accounts Scope for growth 22

23 Degree of development of the savings industry % 22% % of GDP Total funds under management 72% 124% 97% 65% 4% 55% 59% 54% 52% 32% 30% 11% 9% 3% 8% 24% 32% 16% 2,722 1, UK France Italy Spain Germany Life reserves Pension Funds Mutual Funds Source: national insurance asociations Scope for growth 23 Billion euros

24 Amounts invested by households in home purchases [1995 = 100] (1) ) Gross fixed capital formation of households Germany Spain France Italy UK Source: national accounts. Scope for growth 24

25 Amounts invested by households in financial assets [1995 = 100] (1) ) Net acquisition of financial assets by households Germany Spain France Italy UK Source: national accounts. Scope for growth 25

26 Projected elderly dependency ratio (1) EU 25 Spain Italy Germany France United Kingdom 1) Population aged 65 and more as a percentage of population aged between 15 and 64 Source: EUROSTAT. Scope for growth 26

27 Projected spending on public pensions as a % of GDP ) 2005 and 2040 data. Spain Germany France(1) Italy United Kingdom Source: EU - ECONOMIC POLICY COMMITTEE Scope for growth 27

28 and don t forget that MAPFRE s growth also comes from Latin America 28

29 Latin America: insurance penetration (premiums as a % of GDP) 2.6% 1.6% 1, GDP (USD billion) GDP TOTAL PENETRATION Source: Own calculations, based on figures from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, El Salvador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Puerto Rico, Uruguay and Venezuela Scope for growth 29

30 Latin America: a comparison of the insurance markets Chile Premium p.c. = GDP p.c. = 4,652.2 P. Rico Premium p.c. = 1,275.8 GDP p.c. = 16,779.1 SPAIN Premium per capita = 1,005.6 GDP per capita = 18, Venezuela Mexico Brazil Argentina El Salvador Colombia Uruguay Average premium per capita = Dominican Rep. Peru 10 - Average GDP per capita = 2,637-1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Source: Own calculations, based on SIGMA figures 2003 Figures Scope for growth 30

31 Disclaimer This document is purely informative. Its content does not constitute, nor can it be interpreted as, an offer or an invitation to sell, exchange or buy, and it is not binding on the issuer in any way. The information about the plans of the Company, its evolution, its results and its dividends represents a simple forecast whose formulation does not represent a guarantee with respect to the future performance of the Company or the achievement of its targets or estimated results. The recipients of this information must be aware that the preparation of these forecasts is based on assumptions and estimates, which are subject to a high degree of uncertainty, and that, due to multiple factors, future results may differ materially from expected results. Among such factors, the following are worth highlighting: the evolution of the insurance market and of the economic environment in general in those countries where the Company operates; changes in the legal framework; changes in monetary policy; circumstances which may affect the competitiveness of insurance products and services; changes in the underlying tendencies on which the mortality and morbidity tables used in Life and Health insurance are based; frequency and severity of claims insured, with respect to reinsurance and general insurance, as well as to life insurance; variations in interest rates and exchange rates; risks associated with the use of derivative instruments; the impact of future acquisitions. MAPFRE does not undertake to update or revise periodically the content of this document. 31

32 The attractions of Spain as an insurance market Domingo Sugranyes, Executive Vice Chairman and CEO Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference Navigating the Sea of Change Puerto Banus, Spain, 8 June 2005