DENNIS VERRIOS DIRECTOR BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT TOTE TASMANIA CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER AGILITY INTERACTIVE

Transcription

1 EPMA Roundtable PROFESSIONAL PUNTERS DENNIS VERRIOS DIRECTOR BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT TOTE TASMANIA CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER AGILITY INTERACTIVE 4 October 2010 Page 1

2 TOTE Tasmania and Agility Interactive State Owned Company in Tasmania TOTE Tasmania Pty Ltd Annual turnover of >$AUD 750 (>$USD 700) million Primarily wagering on racing but also offer growing sports betting Pride ourselves on being innovative and forward looking Have been first to market in new technology innovations within the wagering market Strong Partnership models deliver TOTE prices via Betfair as well as excellent partnerships with Market Movers Are constantly looking for new, innovative and engaging business models Agility Interactive is TOTE s innovative customer solutions arm which runs all Interactive business for TOTE and supports its international business and Very Large Professional customers The BETPRO Suite Page 2

3 My intention... To explain Who or what a pro bettor/punter is To explain the benefits of a pro punter to: Non Pros Industry Government Operators To give you an idea of what a pro needs to operate To explain how TOTE and Agility service these pros Page 3

4 Professional Bettors (Punters) BACKGROUND Page 4

5 Setting the scene We have Pros... Using 1993 as a base year: The blue line represents the total amount wagered on Racing in Australia each year The red line represents the hypothetical amount that Australia would have wagered on races in Australia if they had gone up by the Reserve Bank of Australia s inflation rate. As can be seen, the two lines are closely related, and as more sophisticated customers enter the market in recent years, wagering (and pool sizes)have grown wagering to a level higher than the inflation rate, illustrating the strength of race betting. Pros openly serviced Pros start organising Page 5

6 Professional Bettors an overview One of the benefits of Pari-mutuel models is the capacity to support professional bettors I have dealt with the smallest bettor to the biggest ones in the world and categorise them into the following groups and sub-groups: AMATEUR WANTSto WIN Seasonal Big Event Irregular Acts on Tips Regular Loves the sport of racing or follows form ALL ARE ULTIMATELY SEEKING ENTERTAINMENT AS THEIR PRIMARY DRIVER NOT PROFIT PROFESSIONAL NEEDSto WIN Small Loser Professional Single Player Professional low sophistication Single Player Professional High sophistication Syndicated Major ALL ARE ULTIMATELY SEEKING PROFITAS THEIR PRIMARY DRIVER NOT ENTERTAINMENT Page 6

7 Professional Bettors an overview One common thing we have seen in Australia that matches many other countries is a long standing view that Amateurs are good for the industry and Professionals are bad. This is a very outdated, closeted and technically incorrect view You must remember why each group is in the business of betting: AMATEUR = ENTERTAINMENT PROFESSIONAL = PROFIT Page 7

8 Professional Bettors an overview The general argument againstprofessionals goes something like this... They are a leech who takes money from the everyday small customer This opinion is linked to the fact that when a professional bets they are using intelligence and information to bet, and they bet in a disciplined manner on OVERVALUED opportunities. If I tossed a coin but offered you instead of Evens ($2 return per $1) on HEADS OR TAILS I offered $3 per $1 on heads and $2 per $1 on tails you would have to pick Heads. A professional has used intelligence to price the flip at $2 on either side but when the market offers them $3 they buy it. Win or Lose on the single flip this approach WILL be profitable over the long term. Of course a horse race is vastly more complicated to price than a coin toss. WHAT WOULD YOU DO IF I OFFERED YOU $3 PER $1 BET ON A COIN TOSS ACROSS 32,000 EVENTS PER ANNUM? Page 8

9 Professionals: Advantages and Disadvantages Disadvantages Lower Churn for Amateur -but not substantial (around ½ a bet 1 ) Reduced Profitability of Amateur -but they will never be profitable (reduced by 9% 1 ) They are looking for the CORE GOAL of ENTERTAINMENT / EXCITEMENT Advantages More money for Industry = More and Better Quality Races = Excitement and Entertainment + Employment (More information in the next section) Increased Memorable winson medium and Long Shots (Favourite Longshot Bias 2 ) for Amateurs due to Pros predominantly backing short to medium runners = INCREASE OF CORE GOAL OF ENTERTAINMENT / EXCITEMENT Increased tools, data and products helping those who wish to exit Amateur to become better punters this would not have happened without Pros. Page 9

10 But what if the Pros get too big in the market! When considering whether to allow professionals into the market, one should remember that they are self-regulating. If too many professionals are in the market they are unable to make a profit and they then withdraw from the market. They are unable to flood the market and so there will always be a place for smaller punters. Page 10

11 Are they really good for the industry? There are three broad impacts a professional has on the industry as a whole: 1. The PRO PUNTER MULTIPLIER EFFECT (PPME) for each additional dollar placed in the pool causes the pool to grow by a greater amount 3 Final pool (Y) = small money (M) + pro money (P) Y = M + P In the case where there are No Pros Y = M and M = m 0+ m 1Y What if we add Pros? Y = m 0 + P and P = p 0 + p 1 Y Therefore Y = 1 / (1 p 1 ) x m 0 In Australia professionals add as much as: 42.9% Increases revenues to Government 27.9% Increase revenues to industry 2. Lowers average transaction costs excellent for operators and profits 3. They create a market for information and data thereby making the cost of it lower and more accessible to the average punter Page 11

12 The PPME in the Australian Industry Pool Estimated P 1 Y = turnover (in millions)* m 0 (in millions) PPME % increase from pros NSWTAB 15% of Pool 5,000 4, % UNITAB 20% of Pool 3,200 2,560 25% SuperTAB 30% of Pool 6,400 4, % An increase in the value of p 1 causes a disproportionally larger percentage increase to the pool size. E.g. from p 1 = 20% to p 1 = 30% there is a 50% increase, the value of the multiplier increases from 25% for UNITAB to 42.9% in SUPERTAB,which is a 71.6% increase. Therefore, the larger the value of p 1, the larger the roll on effect for the pools and the industry, with SuperTAB using it the strongest out of the three pools in question. * Difficult to verify the final pools but principle is same Page 12

13 The Effect of the PPME on the Industry and the Govt Paid to: Government Taxes $before professionals.0161 x Y = 16,100 Sales Tax.0147 x Y = 14,700 Racing Product Fees 50%of op s gross profit to industry.013 x Y = 13, x M +.015x P= 30,000 $ after professionals.0161 x Y = 23, x Y = 21, x Y = 18, x M +.015x P= 36,429 % change with professionals 42.9% 42.9% 42.9% 21.4% TOTAL 73,800 99, % Weighted average for each sector 42.9% Increase to Government % Increase to industry 4 Therefore it can be seen that the introduction of professional money, has increased government revenue (through gov and sales tax) by 42.9% and increased industry funding (through product fees and 50% of gross revenue) by 27.9% Page 13

14 How do we service the professional? SERVICING PROFESSIONALS Page 14

15 What are the types of Professional bettors? There are three distinct types of pros operating in the industry who are differentiated by the way they determine the value of a horse (similar to stock market analysts): Technical much like technical analysis in the stock market, technical pros observe changes in the price of a horse in order to determine the future, and assume all information in forming that price is correct. This can be seen with the following example: in a race of however many starters, one horse s odds have widened to 4 to 1 while another horse s odds have shortened to 4 to 1. In simple terms, a technical pro believes this represents that the horse whose odds have shortened has a higher chance of winning than the horse whose odds have widened, even though the same odds are being offered. Fundamental In the stock market this means someone who looks into all information regarding the share to evaluate the shares value in the future, and a fundamental pro is similar. They evaluate the entire field and determine, as a consequence of studying form and every aspect affecting the horse, what the chances of each horse of winning the race is. Hybrid uses both technical analysis and fundamental analysis to determine who will win the race. For example they may have determined the form of the race but then also watched fluctuations in the market and take note of horses coming in or out. Page 15

16 What are the key items required? Technical Constant stream of data in regards to runners paying dividends and pool sizes Historical pool and price movements Advanced models regarding price movements and impact across pool types Fast transactional processing systems Fundamental Access to historical video footage Sectional timings (they create these if not provided) Detailed market information including trainers and jockey info Environmental data: Weather, Going etc Large Database and regression systems Page 16

17 VIP SERVICE FIRST AND FOREMOST The CRM is the first point of contact for the clients, they are assessable 24/7 Transfers and deposit transactions are completed upon request 24/7 Prompt CRM service and communication (product managers speaking to clients on a regular basis and instantly when problems occur) Support clients in obtaining greater profits via specialised products e.g. Betpro. Attend prestige events with clients Communicate Priority benefits to the client on a one on one basis (call, invite out to lunch) The CRM division work closely with the Call Centre and IT departments to ensure The TOTE account holder benefits are maintained and meet. Page 17

18 VIP TECHNOLOGY Page 18

19 VIP TECHNOLOGY WEBSITE BETPRO website The BETPRO website was created as a result of demand for a high-end wagering system for pari-mutuel racing product, It is only available to a select group of customers Integrates with customers, often complex, wagering strategies. This additional level of personal service offers customer flexibility with new functionality such as the upload of personal ratings, interrogation of rating information against current market information and the placing of bets either manually or automated based on user defined conditions Page 19

20 VIP TECHNOLOGY BATCH BETTING BETPRO FILEBET This is a simplified text file batch betting application used by a segment of customers that owned existing wagering tools (Semi-Sophisticated) however these wagering tools were not compatible with online interfaces. File Bet is a smart client application that takes a batch of bets in text file format and processes them though Bet API. Page 20

21 VIP TECHNOLOGY API BETPRO API BetPro API is a collection of web services used to connect sophisticated punters with existing wagering tools to pari-mutuel pools. In simplified terms Bet API allows a customer to receive racing and sports information, place a bet and get detailed transactional information, including balance, through their own unique betting system. Page 21

22 VIP TECHNOLOGY DATABASE BETPRO PRO PUNTER FORM (PPF) Tool developed for small professional customers. PPF allows customers to record their personal form information in a user friendly database. New input variables can be created on-the-fly by the customer without need for a developer resource. Page 22

23 VIP TECHNOLOGY BETBOT BETPRO BETBOT Solution Rules based automated betting system that draws information from a diverse range of race data sources. BetBot allows a customer to validate runner selections against a variety of predetermined rules or specifically created rules in order to determine value. Upon determining a value bet, BetBot will begin it s automated place bet function into the pools selected by the customer. Upon completion of the placebet function BetBot will continually re-assess runner selections for value bets until the event has closed. This product is intended to run autonomously with minimal ongoing input from the operator. Page 23

24 VIP TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS PRO BETPRO BETBACK Solution Automated Risk Management solution of placing bets both in attended and unattended mode to allow a bookmakers or punters exposure on certain events and outcomes to be placed back into the market thereby either reducing or negating the position. This includes, but is not limited to, the exposure at a book or customer level and will also allow certain positions to be followed allowing the system to take advantage of market intelligence provided by a bookmaker's customer's actions Page 24

25 VIP DATA Advanced Data - Dataflows A state of the art PUSH Datafeed that alerts customers of every price and pool change Price and Pools Databases We maintain one of Australia s largest and complete price movements database. Historical Form We purchase from key suppliers large volume and high quality historical form Page 25

26 VIP REWARDS For LARGE (>$5m per annum) we have a banded rebate system below this it is inefficient to offer as a cash rebate (as it is not churned again) For SMALLER PRO s we have Evolution Rewards. This was the first loyalty program introduced to the Australian wagering industry launched in 2008 There are 4 member status levels which accumulate points at different rates per dollar of turnover depending on annual turnover with the TOTE. VIPs belong to Platinum & Gold: contribute 86% of ALL points accumulated through the program; Existing members of the TOTE who joined the Evolution Rewards program have increased their average monthly turnover by 15.6%; Monthly promotions to Evolution Rewards members have resulted in average increases of 19.1% in turnover for the promoted products, resulting in increases in incremental revenues with total R.O.I of 68.4%; Page 26

27 EVOLUTION REWARDS Page 27

28 Please note the mathsin this section is indicative and an opinion. The mathsis reflective of the principles that we have seen at work. MATHS Page 28

29 1 HOW DID WE ARRIVE AT THAT? How did I arrive at that? Some basic maths ASSUMPTIONS NO PROS LOW CASE AVG CASE HIGH CASE PROF: Share of Pool 0.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% Failing Pros 10.0% AVG Takeout Rate 15.6% PROF: Win Rate 0.0% -4.0% 0.0% 4.0% Average Industry Return 4.0% AMATEUR BETS $ $ $ $ PROF BET $ - $ $ $ TOTAL POOL $ $ $ $ TAKEOUT $ $ $ $ INDUSTRY REVENUE $ 4.00 $ 5.00 $ 5.00 $ 5.00 PROFESSIONALS RETURNS (after Failing Pros) $ - $ $ $ AMATEUR RETURNS $ $ $ $ AMATEUR LOSS $ $ $ $ CHANGE IN LOSS 3.2% 9.0% 14.7% AMATEUR $ CHURN CHANGE IN $ CHURN The argument is even better when you look at complex exotics with almost no loss and mostly gain from every $ from a Professional Page 29

30 2 HOW DID WE ARRIVE AT THAT? Economic Theory it s complicated! The Favourite Longshot Bias (FLSB) means that, on average, punters tend to overvalue "long shots" and undervalue favourites. That is, in a horse race where one horse is given odds by a Bookmaker of 2 to 1, and another 50 to 1, the true odds (as determined by an efficient market mechanic such as Pari-Mutuel) might for example be 2 to 1 and 100 to 1 respectively. Betting on the "long shot" is therefore a much worse proposition than betting on the favourite. Page 30

31 3 HOW DID WE ARRIVE AT THAT? The PPME Part 1 -each dollar added to pool by professionals adds more than a dollar in total To illustrate the effect of the PPME some basic maths is used: Final pool (Y) = small money (M) + pro money (P) Y = M + P Y = M and M = m 0 + m 1 Y In the case where there are No Pros m 0 = a bet placed regardless of pool size;an entertainment bet m 1 = a bet that is influenced by pool size As small punters place bets for entertainment it is likely that the value of m 1 is very close, if not equal to zero Therefore we can say Y = m 0 Page 31

32 3 HOW DID WE ARRIVE AT THAT? The PPME Part 2 What if we add Pros? Y = m 0 + P and P = p 0 + p 1 Y p 0 = a bet placed regardless of pool size; an entertainment bet p 1 = a bet that is influenced by pool size As pros bet for monetary gain it is likely that the value of p 0 is very close if not equal to zero Therefore Y = m 0 + p 1 Y Page 32

33 3 HOW DID WE ARRIVE AT THAT? The PPME Part 3 After finding this we can use algebra to find the value of Y: Y = m 0 + p 1 Y Y p 1 Y = m 0 Y (1 p 1 ) = m 0 Y = 1 / (1 p 1 ) x m 0 Therefore it can be seen that the final pool is dependant on both the investments of the small punters and also the amount that professional punters bet dependant on the size on the final pool Page 33

34 3 HOW DID WE ARRIVE AT THAT? The PPME Part 4 As seen before, Australian professionals account for 30% of the final SuperTABpool, and let s therefore presume, given the market is self correcting and at a mature stage professionals are aiming for (30%) of the final pool. Therefore p 1 =.3, and let s say that m 0 = 1,000,000 Y = 1 / (1 -.3) x 1,000,000 Y = 1 /.7 x 1,000,000 Y = 1,428,571 As can be seen, with the professionals aiming for 30% of the pool, they have unintentionally made the pool grow by 42.9%, and this would hold true regardless of the size of m 0 Page 34

35 4 HOW DID WE ARRIVE AT THAT? The Effect of the PPME on the Industry and the Govt Government Taxes Background The weighted average commission rate is16.1%. This is then divided up by: Of the 16.1% Of the total pool 10% 1.61% Sales Tax 9.1% 1.47% Product Fees 8.1% 1.3% Operator 72.8% 11.72% After running costs the operator has 6% gross profit from small money and 3% gross profit from professionals. Of this, 50% is given back to the industry in the forms of sponsorship, facilities upgrades, etc. The affect of professional on the industry and government will now be explored, with m 0 = $1,000,000 and p 1 =.3 like in previous examples. Page 35

36 Thank you for your time. Please feel free to contact me regarding any questions or alternative points of view: QUESTIONS Page 36