Outlook of Ultrabooks, Tablets and Smartphones Michael Wang Macronix Int l
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1 Outlook of Ultrabooks, Tablets and Smartphones Michael Wang Macronix Int l Mobile Forum Taiwan 2012
2 Tables of Contents Mobile Device Trends Impacts to NAND Storage & Mobile-DRAM Market Forecast for Ultrabooks, Tablets & Smartphones Memory IC Forecast and Opportunities Take-Away Messages
3 The Mobile Era Devices / Users Computing Growth Drivers Over Time, (E) (MM in Log Scale) 1,000,000 More than just phones 100,000 10,000 1, Mainframe Increasing Integration Minicomputer 10MM+ Units PC 100MM+ Units Wired Internet 1B+ Units / Users Mobile Internet 10B+ Units?? 10X more devices Smartphone Tablet Ultrabook PDA Car electronics Mobile games Home appliances 1MM+ Units (Source: Morgan Stanley Research, 2011)
4 Trends and Transitions Multi-persons One-device to One-person Multi-devices Multi-persons One-device Analog Telephone One-person One-device Mobile Telephone One-person Multi-devices Mobile Devices
5 Consumer Usage Patterns for Different Devices Source: Gartner,2012 March
6 Mobile Market Trends Apps Search Multi-tasking Video Social
7 Mobile Data Traffic Exabytes (10 18 ) per month of mobile data traffic Trends driving mobile data 3G/4G subscriber growth Mobile devices booming Higher speed broadband connectivity Shifting to cloud computing Source: Cisco data, Macquarie Research, 2012 March
8 Tables of Contents Mobile Device Trends Impacts to NAND Storage & Mobile-DRAM Market Forecast for Ultrabooks, Tablets & Smartphones Memory IC Forecast and Opportunities Take-Away Messages
9 Mobile Storage - What s Desired Density: Continue scaling Power: Longer battery life Size: Thinner & Lighter Cost Down (As always) Response: Instant on Reliability: Fit application smartly
10 NAND Mobile Storage Trend USF 1.0 3Gbps UFS 2.0 6Gbps Bandwidth & Functionality emmc MHz Boot Sleep emmc 4.4 emmc 4.41 DDR Multiple partition Trim HPI emmc4.5 HS200 RTC Packed command Sanitize command Data tag
11 Mobile DRAM - What s Desired Higher Bandwidth Graphics performance & high resolution display Higher Density User applications & Multi-tasking Miniaturization Thinner & Lighter Mobility Always on / always connected Lower power/longer battery life
12 Source: Elpida Mobile-DRAM Trend
13 Mobile Packaging Trend From discrete CSP to stack forms PoP (Package-on-Package) MCP (Multi-Chip Package) Next revolution 3D: 3D-NAND TSV (Through Silicon Via): Wide-IO
14 Tables of Contents Mobile Device Trends Impacts to NAND Storage & Mobile-DRAM Market Forecast for Ultrabooks, Tablets & Smartphones Memory IC Forecast and Opportunities Take-Away Messages
15 Major Mobile Devices Forecast Million units Smartphone Tablet Ultrabook NB CAGR Forecast: --- Smartphone 21% --- Tablet 39% --- Ultrabook (from 2012) 59% --- NB 12% Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f) Source: Multiple market research companies; organized by Macronix marketing,2012 July.
16 Storage & Mobile Memory Interface Smartphone Tablet Ultrabook Storage NAND emmc NAND emmc SSD SSD Dual-Drive Hybrid-HDD DRAM LPDDR LPDDR DDR LPDDR DDR Platform ARM+Andriod ARM+iOS ARM+iOS ARM+Andriod Wintel Wintel WoA(ARM+Win8)?
17 Ultrabook Market Forecast Ultrabook Shipments (Millions) Ultrabook Shipment by Storage Hybrid HDD Dual-Drives SSDs Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) 0 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Source: IDC, 2012
18 Tablet Market Forecast Tablet Shipments (Millions) Tablet Storage Density Mix % % 256GB GB % 64GB 32GB % 16GB 100 8GB 50 20% 4GB 2GB 0 Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f) 0% Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f) Source: IHS isuppli, 2012 March
19 Mobile Phone Market Forecast ULC Full Feature Mid to High End Smartphone Entry Feature Low End Smartphone Unit: Million Smartphone Source: IHS isuppli, 2012 March Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f)
20 Tables of Contents Mobile Device Trends Impacts to NAND Storage & Mobile-DRAM Market Forecast for Ultrabooks, Tablets & Smartphones Memory IC Forecast and Opportunities Take-Away Messages
21 Overall Semiconductor Revenue by End-Use US$ Billions Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f) Source: Gartner, 2012/03 CAGR Others 3% Industrial 7% Automotive 8% Consumer -1% Flash Card & USB -2% Communication (ex phones) 4% Smartphone 16% Non-Smartphone -17% SSD 30% Tablets 32% Sever/Workstation 11% PC 3%
22 80,000 Memory IC Historical Data ( ) Memory Revenue & Unit Shipment by Technology Million US$ 40,000 Million units 70,000 35,000 60,000 30,000 50,000 25,000 40,000 20,000 30,000 15,000 20,000 10,000 10,000 5,000 0 Y07 Y08 Y09 Y10 Y11 0 Y07 Y08 Y09 Y10 Y11 Source: WSTS
23 Memory IC Market Forecast ( ) 70,000 60,000 US$ Million 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Other Memory ROM & EPROM NAND Flash NOR Flash 10,000 0 Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) SRAM DRAM Source: WSTS 2012/05 Spring Forecast Update
24 Memory Content Forecast for Ultrabooks 10 DRAM Content (GB) per device 250 NAND Content (GB) per device Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f) Y11 Source: BofA, Merrill Lynch; organized by Macronix marketing, 2012 July Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f)
25 Memory Content Forecast for Tablets 5 DRAM Content (GB) per device NAND Content (GB) per device Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f) 0 Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f) Source: BofA, Merrill Lynch; organized by Macronix marketing,2012 July
26 Memory Content Forecast for Smartphones DRAM Content (GB) per device Embedded NAND Content (GB) per device Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f) 0 Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f) Source: IHS isuppli, 2012 March
27 Tables of Contents Mobile Device Trends Impacts to NAND Storage & Mobile-DRAM Market Forecast for Ultrabooks, Tablets & Smartphones Memory IC Forecast and Opportunities Take-Away Messages
28 Take-Away Messages Killer mobile usages and industry focus are fueling the exciting growth of mobile devices Smartphone ~1,000M units (forecast of 2015) Tablet ~300M units Ultrabook ~100M units Behind the mobile device success, NAND storage and mobile-dram solutions are key enablers Many active JEDEC members are jointly creating future memory standards, to enable the market acceptance and ultimately benefit all eco-system industries emmc, UFS, SSD LPDDR3, Wide-IO
29 Thank You! Michael Wang Macronix Int l Mobile Forum Taiwan 2012
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