interactiv advertisin bureau IAB report on online ad-spend 2011

Transcription

1 interactiv advertisin bureau IAB report on online ad-spend 2011 Maart 2012

2 Our methodology Collection Deloitte collected data covering 79% of the market* Estimation Missing participants data estimated based on previous figures, desk research, expert opinions, industry databases and regression modeling Conversation Initial findings verified with industry experts, media buyers, and selected publishers Validation Final findings cross-referenced and validated with respondents Publication All findings presented to the IAB and industry participants * Note: Based on STIR market estimate IAB report on online ad-spend

3 Executive summary Ad revenues received by Dutch publishers through their mobile websites and in-app advertising on smartphones and tablets is still very small Despite slow economic growth and declining consumer confidence, the Dutch online advertising market was over 1 b in 2011, a year on year uplift of 12% However, the lagging economy has an effect on the outlook for 2012; participants expect growth to slow to 7.7% growth for 2012 Gagandeep Sethi Deloitte Consulting Strategy The growth of the online advertising market in 2010 has continued for a large part throughout 2011 Eric Snelleman GroupM Head of Digital Trading Automated trading technologies are on the rise with 36% of total display revenue generated through some kind of non-guaranteed pricing mechanism Search is still dominant in the online advertising market earning half of total ad spend. Display is where the Dutch publishers and networks need to get their fair share We are pleased with this IAB report as it confirms a growth that is in line with our annual global media forecast. A growth that still outperforms other media, however not growing as fast as before. To accelerate growth we think the industry should now make sure marketing driven thinking is fully merged with technology solutions to further drive, enhance and develop digital advertising. IAB report on online ad-spend

4 Background IAB report on online ad-spend

5 Dutch economy The Dutch economy is expected to experience slow growth over the next two years. Comments Dutch GDP projections ( b) pace as the Dutch GDP is expected to grow at a steady 1.4% for the coming two years 2010 in the advertising market, future growth is expected to be more in line with GDP % 3% 0% -3% -6% 475-9% % F 2013F -15% GDP GDP Growth rate YoY Total advertising growth rate YoY Note: Real GDP based on constant prices Source: IMF, Zenith optimedia December 2011, SPOT TV Jaarrapport 2011, PwC Entertainment & Media Outlook , Radio Advies Bureau, Deloitte analysis IAB report on online ad-spend

6 Dutch advertising market TV and online are expected to grow the most in both absolute and relative terms. Comments Estimated advertising market ( m) The Netherlands in 2012 is 2.1% the largest market in 2012 their steady decline 5,000 4,028 4, , , ,059 4, , ,000 1,177 1,088 1,045 1, ,068 1,189 Note: TV excludes Online TV Advertising Source: Zenith optimedia December 2011, SPOT TV Jaarrapport 2011, PwC Entertainment & Media Outlook , Radio Advies Bureau, Company annual reports, Deloitte analysis Cinema Outdoor % Radio TV Magazines Newspapers 2012F Internet IAB report on online ad-spend

7 Time spend As consumers spend more time online, advertisers are expected to respond similarly to rebalance the value of the different media types. NL Advertising Trends Time spend vs Share of Advertising spend (2011)* Newspapers/Magazines Print still has a dominant position in the advertising market, with a relatively large share compared to the total time spent on this media. Forecasts show a steady Indicative direction and speed Radio Traditional radio is expected to decline in its share of total timespend, but will be compensated by online music services such as Spotify and Pandora. Upside potential in SoA is limited due to the nature of the medium and is expected to TV Linear TV in the Netherlands is likely to have a strong year due to major media events such as the Olympics and European Championships; major advertisers may increase spend on TV advertising as cost per reach is still relatively cheap. Internet Time spent online will increase over the next few years with video and social being the big drivers. It is expected that advertising budgets will shift in line with this increase in time spend. Note: Share of Advertising based on collected 2011 data; Time spend based on most recent available findings from SPOT Source: Trends tijdsbesteding 2010 SPOT, Zenith optimedia December 2011, SPOT TV Jaarrapport 2011, Radio Advies Bureau, Deloitte analysis Share of Advertising spend (%) Newspapers Internet TV 15 Magazines 10 5 Radio Time spend (%) * Definitions: Share of Advertising spend is the ratio of advertising revenue of a particular media type to the sum of revenue of all selected media types. Time spend is the ratio of time spend on a particular media type to the sum of time spend on all selected media types. IAB report on online ad-spend

8 Consumer confidence The decline in consumer confidence has had little direct impact on online advertising spend sofar. Display advertising revenue vs. consumer confidence m Jan Febr Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec m Jan Febr Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Consumer confidence Advertising income Source: CBS, Deloitte analysis IAB report on online ad-spend

9 2011 Results IAB report on online ad-spend

10 Online advertising market The Dutch online advertising market was almost 1.1b in 2011, a year on year uplift of 12%. Frank Goebbels Omnicom Strategy & Development Director Revenue by advertising category ( m) Adwords costs have increased tremendously due to high bidding; display stands to benefit in the short term from higher prices on search keywords m , Search Display Classifieds, directories and listings Hein Asser Magna Global Contracting Director Advertisers are buying more but spending relatively less on display advertising leading to limited growth in the segment +12% * Search revenues is our estimation of all revenue of Google and its competitors in The Netherlands Note: Display revenue includes some double counting from search related revenues; Classifieds, directories & listings estimated based on a limited number of data points; Display and Classifieds, directories & listings data for 2010 restated based on revised revenues figures from respondents and additional data from new respondents Source: Survey respondents, Annual reports; Deloitte analysis IAB report on online ad-spend

11 Details display advertising More than half of display advertising revenues come from traditional embedded formats. Display advertising breakdown by format Other 31% Interruptive formats 8% 12% 50% 2011 Display formats Video 9% 61% Embedded formats 19% Textlinks (incl. AdSense) 10% Note: Embedded formats are for example traditional banners and skyscrapers Source: Survey respondents, Deloitte analysis Display Classifieds, directories and listings Search IAB report on online ad-spend

12 Display revenue per medium Mobile websites and in-app advertising is small; within apps, tablets have a 36% revenue share while there are 6.4 times more smart phone devices then tablets. Display advertising revenue per medium Number of devices Joris van Heukelom IAB Chairman On the one hand we can conclude that publishing for tablets which is dominated by Apple is still in the beginning of its lifetime-cycle. But the promise is huge. If you focus on the advertising-value of publishing on tablet you only can conclude that it is remarkably high. I assume that next years adspend study will show remarkable growth in this category. 9% 3% Mediums 88% 36% In-app 64% Devices (x1m) Note: In-app only includes revenues from survey respondents and excludes revenues from Website/browser In-app / Mobile website Smartphone Tablet Smartphones Tablets players such as Google and Apple Source: Survey respondents, Emerce.nl, Deloitte analysis IAB report on online ad-spend

13 Power ratio display advertising Publishers vary in reach and performance in capturing advertising spend with market leaders capturing the most relative value through niche focus. Comments Power ratio display advertising 12.4 ratio of respondent revenue to the sum of revenue of included respondents respondent unique visitors to the sum of unique visitors of included respondents dividing Share of Advertising spend by Share of Visitors audience received a high advertising share relative to their visitors share share of advertising compared to their reach advertising performance compared to their reach Low Average High 1.0 SoA / SoV Note: Unique visitors are according to STIR definitions of visitors over 13 years of age Source: STIR 2011, Survey respondents, Deloitte analysis Number of publishers IAB report on online ad-spend

14 Industries Consumer goods takes position as top spender amongst publishers while Financial services spending moves to a second position. Top five industries by revenue share Change Consumer goods 17% Consumer goods 10% 7% Financial services 14% Financial services 9% 5% Telecom 10% Telecom 9% 1% Online retail 9% Online retail 3% 6% Automotive 7% Automotive 11% -4% Travel 7% Travel 4% 3% Hardware & electronics 4% Hardware & electronics 5% -1% Public sector 3% Public sector 3% 0% Personal care 3% ICT Services 2% Fashion 2% Retail 2% Retail 2% 0% Note: Excluding classifieds, directories & listings, search and industry category other; Free time 2% Energy 1% Free time Energy 4% 2% -2% -1% 2011 included 3 new categories ICT Services, Fashion and Personal care; 2010 shares updated to include additional respondents Source: Survey respondents, Deloitte analysis IAB report on online ad-spend

15 Revenue per payment model The CPM payment model maintains a leading position as the preferred revenue model for display advertising. Display advertising revenue per payment model Roel van Rijsewijk Deloitte Online Business Innovation As we move towards more automated trading, CPM is becoming the default currency. 51% CPM 19% CPS 9% CPC 2% Other 7% CPL 12% Fixed Fee Source: Survey respondents, Deloitte analysis IAB report on online ad-spend

16 Sales mechanism and channels A significant portion of sales is not realized through traditional ratecards but through using an automated trading mechanism. Mark Stockx Telegraaf Media Nederland Sales Director Digitaal Display advertising revenue by price mechanism Revenue per channel 2012 is going to be the year where automated trading really becomes part of a total integrated marketing solution. Automated trading has developed far from remnant inventory and moves to premium partnership solutions ranging from awareness to performance and ultimately delivering true ROI for our clients. The publishers that really gets the ultimate mix between branded content, premium formats & inventory and performance driven solutions is up for a great year. 36% % 44% 11% 2% 12% % Third parties 19% 67% Note: Guaranteed revenues defined as sales from upfront agreed upon price, for example based on a ratecard. Non-guaranteed revenues resulting from sales without an upfront agreed upon price, for example exchange traded inventory. Source: Survey respondents, Deloitte analysis Guaranteed Non-guaranteed Direct sales Media agencies Third parties Automated trading agencies Ad network / saleshouse Agency trading desks Ad network / ad exchange IAB report on online ad-spend

17 Affiliate marketing Of the total reported online advertising spend in 2011, 117m was generated through affiliate networks. Bas Rogaar Affilinet Taskforce Affiliate marketing The historical participation of all relevant market players to the IAB Deloitte ad-spend study will have a positive impact on the further development and transparency of this highly innovative and dynamic sector within the online marketing landscape. Spend on affiliate marketing ( m) 117m Affiliate revenue by publisher model 4% 7% 3% 48% Publisher model 12% 6% 20% Search (SEO/SEA) Comparison sites Cashback and loyalty Advertising networks Social Media Coupon codes Topic publishers Note: Division of revenue by publisher model based on data from an estimated 50% of the total market Source: Survey respondents; Jochem Vroom Affiliateblog/Imbull BV; Deloitte analysis IAB report on online ad-spend

18 Outlook IAB report on online ad-spend

19 Revenue growth expectations Respondents predict a 7.7% market growth in 2012 weighted by respondent revenues. Gagandeep Sethi Deloitte Consulting Strategy Companies expect a weighted growth rate of 7,7% in 2012; a clear downward revision of expectations voiced in H of 20%. Survey respondents growth expectations Low Average High Weighted average growth expectation* 2012 expectations 2% 4% 5% 7,7% 8% 10% 12% 15% 18% 20% 45% 50% number of respondents (total of 32) * Growth expectation calculated by weighting responses with company revenue Source: Survey respondents; Deloitte analysis IAB report on online ad-spend

20 Sector growth expectations vs actual results Online retail and Consumer goods were the sectors that have grown most in online ad spend in 2011, as expected by the participants in the last survey. Expectation of growth in 2011 by industry 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% Online retail Consumer goods Travel Retail Financial services Actual change in share of total market by industry in % 6% 3% 0% 4% Source: Survey respondents, Deloitte analysis Online retail Consumer goods Travel Retail Financial services IAB report on online ad-spend

21 Growth expectations 2012 For 2012, CPM remains the main payment model and is expected to grow the most. Retail is expected to grow the most in spend. Expectations of growth of in-app advertising are limited. Growth expectations for 2012 CPM 14% Retail 9% Website 13% CPS 6% Online retail 4% Mobile website 9% Fixed Fee 4% Fashion 3% In-app 3% CPC 3% Consumer Goods 2% 2% CPL 3% Telecom 2% Payment model Industry Medium Source: Survey respondents, Deloitte analysis IAB report on online ad-spend

22 Revenue forecast Display and classifieds, directories and listings revenues are expected to grow from 538m to 580m in Display and classifieds forecast 2012 ( m) Roel van Rijsewijk Deloitte Online Business Innovation The growth rate in 2012 for display advertising could be more than expected, driven by a slight shift away from keyword advertising F Display Classifieds Source: Survents respondents, Deloitte analysis IAB report on online ad-spend

23 Appendix IAB report on online ad-spend

24 Methodology Online advertising market audited estimations regarding total market adjusted for double counting when possible Search and classifieds estimates for search and classifieds based on market data IAB report on online ad-spend

25 Definitions Categories - B2B - B2C - C2C Payment models viewers advertisement generated. A lead is an online conversion where the consumer shares its contact details and indicates to be interested IAB report on online ad-spend

26 List of survey participants Name of company 1 Adfab 2 Adfactor 3 Admitter Nederland 4 Affiliate4You 5 Affilinet Nederland 6 Bannerconnect 7 Beslist.nl 8 Cleafs 9 ClickDistrict 10 Daisycon 11 De Persgroep Advertising 12 Digimo Media 13 FD Mediagroep 14 Funda Real Estate 15 HDC Media 16 Hi-media Nederland 17 IDG 18 Kluwer Media 19 Lumata 20 Marktplaats Media Name of company 21 Microsoft 22 NDC Mediagroep 23 NRC Media 24 OMG/Netdirect 25 RTL Nederland 26 Sanoma Media 27 SBS 28 Ster 29 Sulake 30 TAPPS 31 Telegraaf Media Groep 32 TradeDoubler 33 Viacom International Media Networks Northern Europe 34 Videostrip 35 VNU Media 36 WebAds Interactive Advertising 37 Koninklijke Wegener 38 Young Advertising 39 Zanox M4N 40 Zoom.in IAB report on online ad-spend

27 Data sources Company / Organization Website 1 Affiliate blog 2 CBS 3 Comscore 4 Emerce 5 Forrester 6 Google 7 Imbull 8 IMF 9 PwC 10 Radio Advies Bureau 11 SPOT 12 STIR 13 Zenith Optimedia IAB report on online ad-spend

28 Contact details For questions concerning this research feel free to contact: Roel van Rijsewijk Deloitte Online Business Innovation Roel is a Director with the Risk Services practice from Deloitte with more than 10 years of experience in risk consulting for companies in the Technology, Media projects on ethics and trust in a digital world and is co-founder of Deloitte s Online Business Innovation group. Lauren van der Heijden IAB Nederland lauren@iab.nl Dutch IAB research includes the IAB / Deloitte Ad Spend Study, all IAB commissioned research and assisting IAB members with their research projects. Also responsible for shaping the IAB knowledge base so that it meets members needs moving forward. Gagandeep Sethi Deloitte Consulting Strategy gasethi@deloitte.nl Gagandeep Sethi is a Manager in the Corporate Strategy practice of Deloitte Consulting Netherlands with more than 10 years of experience within the IAB report on online ad-spend

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