In This Issue. El Niño and Florida s Expected Severe Weather by Daniel Noah, Warning Coordination Meteorologist

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1 Wiinter 2015//2016 In This Issue El Niño and Florida s Expected Severe Weather National Weather Service Tampa Bay s Newest Forecaster New Marine Advisory Group forms at NWS Tampa We Are Looking for Ambassadors Record Warm 2015 Across West Central and Southwest Florida El Niño and Florida s Expected Severe Weather by Daniel Noah, Warning Coordination Meteorologist El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a large-scale ocean-atmosphere phenomenon where the water along the equator in the Pacific warms or cools a degree or two above or below normal. This happens every 2 to 7 years and can have a big impact on Florida s weather. The current El Niño has tied the record breaking El Niño of 1997/98 when Florida experienced record rain, flooding, and violent tornadoes. Florida s deadliest tornado was in Kissimmee on February 22-23, 1998 when 42 people were killed and 259 injured. How does El Niño cause violent tornadoes in Florida? The warm waters of El Niño cause storms to form in the central Pacific rather than further west. These storms can change the path of the upper level jet stream to flow over northern Mexico and into Florida. Environmental conditions for hazardous weather become more favorable more often. The pattern is most pronounced from January through April. To learn more about El Niño, visit our new El Niño webpage at Typical winter time pattern over North America during an El Niño year.

2 National Weather Service Tampa Bay s Newest Forecaster by Marc Austin, Senior Forecaster We ve added a new staff member since the last newsletter. His name is Marc Austin, and he s our newest senior forecaster. Here s a little about Marc and his new role here! Marc was born in Oklahoma, but was raised in Gainesville, Florida. When he was young, he remembers the excitement of daily afternoon thunderstorms during the summer months. In addition to enjoying afternoon storms, there were several other significant events that drove Marc to pursue a career in meteorology. First, he was introduced to a video called Terrible Tuesday, a documentary about a deadly tornado that struck Wichita Falls, Texas in April of Marc s passion only intensified when he experienced the March 1993 superstorm, dubbed The Storm of the Century, that spawned tornadoes and severe storms across Florida, and caused a snowstorm from Georgia to New England. The pivotal event that drove Marc to seek a degree in meteorology was the deadly tornado outbreak of May 3, 1999, when a record number of tornadoes carved a path of destruction across Oklahoma and Kansas. This singular event set Marc on a path toward the National Weather Service (NWS) in support of its mission of saving lives and protecting property. Marc earned his bachelor s and master s degrees from Florida State University. While he was enrolled in graduate school, he served as a SCEP intern in the NWS Tallahassee, FL office. Once he obtained his master s degree, he took a job at the NWS office in Norman, Oklahoma, where he would remain for nearly five years, working numerous high impact events, from deadly tornadoes and flooding, to blizzards and wildfire outbreaks. Marc, with his wife Sharon and their dogs Sonny and Annabelle. In August 2015, Marc was hired as our newest senior forecaster, joining a team of four other senior forecasters in the office. He leads our Ecological Decision Support Services (ECO-DSS) team, and is the office liaison to Port Tampa Bay. As part of our ECO-DSS activities, Marc has had to become familiar with Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs), how they form, and their impacts across Florida s west coast. When asked what he loves most about his new position, he says he s grateful for the opportunity to be challenged with new and exciting roles, and to work with diverse agencies across NOAA. He s also fond of the ability to fish more often, one of his favorite hobbies! Welcome aboard Marc!

3 New Marine Advisory Group forms at NWS Tampa By Nicole Carlisle, Forecaster The Marine Advisory Group (MAG) consists of the marine program leader at NWS Tampa and representatives from the U.S. Coast Guard Auxiliary and the U.S. Sail and Power Squadrons. The goal of the MAG is to expand communication between NWS Tampa and our core marine partners. Spotter training sessions will be conducted, thereby increasing weather reports received. The MAG will also be used as a forum for feedback on NWS products and services. If you're interested in learning more, please contact Nicole Carlisle at [email protected]. NWS Meteorologist Nicole Carlisle with the newling formed Marine Advisory Group. We Are Looking for Ambassadors by Daniel Noah, Warning Coordination Meteorologist Your National Weather Service (NWS) is looking for Ambassadors within organizations to promote awareness of and preparedness for hazardous weather within your sphere of influence. The Ambassador will receive an once or twice a month from the NWS. If the Ambassador finds the preparedness tip or weather resource relevant, they share it with people within their organization. Tom Ross, Valencia Lakes, and Robert Garcia, NWS Tampa Bay, holding Weather Ready Nation Ambassador signs. Valencia Lakes was the first Home Owners Association to join the Ambasador program in Who can become an Ambassador? A member of a Home Owners Association, businesses large and small, churches, civic clubs, academia, and more. Why does the NWS need Ambassadors? After Hurricane Sandy in 2012, Sociologists told us people are more likely to prepare for hazardous weather if they receive the preparedness information from someone they know. An Ambassador is someone in their organization they know. For more information, visit

4 Record Warm 2015 Across West Central and Southwest Florida By Paul Close, Senior Forecaster 2015 ended up being the warmest year on record across most of West Central and Southwest Florida with temperatures averaging about 1.5 to 4 degrees above normal. Rainfall was highly variable as is typical across the Florida peninsula thanks to the fact that most of the rain during the year occurs in summer thunderstorms which by nature are small in scale. This led to some areas seeing rainfall amounts of 60 to 70 inches, or about 15 to 20 inches above normal, while other areas were relatively dry and saw about 40 inches of rain, or 10 to 15 inches below normal. On the following pages are tables with daily, monthly, and yearly stats for some locations across the area. See the tables on the following pages for more details. Brooksville Area (Records began in January 1892)

5 Tampa Area (Records began in in April 1890) St. Petersburg (Records began in August 1914)

6 Lakeland Area (Records began in January 1915) Sarasota-Bradenton Area (Records began in January 1911)

7 Punta Gorda Area (Records began in July 1914) Fort Myers Area (Records began in January 1902)