Newsletter. Portuguese Economy and Energy Sector

Transcription

1 Newsletter Portuguese Economy and Energy Sector Q2, 2012

2 Economic News on Portugal The country has become a diversified and increasingly service-based economy since joining the European Community (EU). In 2011, Portuguese GDP fell because of the implementation of austerity measures by Government which included 5% public salary cut and 2% increase in the value-added tax. The table below presents the key economic indicators for Portuguese economy. Table 1: Portugal - Main Economic Indicators Indicators e Population (million) GDP PPP (US$ billion) Real GDP Growth (%) Sectorial Share in GDP Agriculture (%) Industry (%) Services (%) Inflation (% Growth) Exports (US$ billion) Imports Unemployment rate (%) Public Debt (% of GDP) In Q1, 2012, Portugal Government said that the economy would grow more slowly. In first quarter of 2012, Portugal s economy decreased by 0.1% compared with the last quarter and by 2.2% on a 12-month basis. This growth was driven by a less negative contribution of domestic demand. The data shows that the country is doing better than expected but is still in recession. The National Statistical Institute of Portugal estimates that the GDP will decrease by 3% in 2012 due to the austerity measures being enforced for the bailout of the Portuguese economy. Portugal s GDP is forecasted to increase by 0.3% in Page 2

3 The area in which the Portuguese economy is showing strength is exports. Imports also decreased, favoring a lesser deficit in the balance of payments. In February 2012, exports increased 2.9%, whereas imports declined 9.5% respectively in year-on-year terms (rates of change of 3.3 and -2.8%, respectively, in the period from January to February 2012). Portugal imports were worth 4,934 million (mn) in March Portugal major imports are machinery and transport equipment, chemicals, petroleum, textiles and agricultural products. Portugal exports were worth 4,092 mn in March of Unemployment rate in the country reached 14.9% in the quarter and expected to reach 16% by In Q1, 2012, total employment decreased in year-on-year terms by 4.2%. The number of dependent workers decreased 4.0%, while other forms of employment as a whole decreased 4.9%. Investors, continue to express concern about the government s ability to achieve future budget deficit targets and obtain foreign financing to cover its sovereign debt obligations when the EU-IMF financing program expires in Without the option for stimulus measures, the government is focusing instead on boosting exports and implementing labor market and other structural reforms to try to raise GDP growth and increase Portugal s competitiveness - which, over time, may help mitigate investor concerns. The Energy Sector Crude oil remains the largest primary energy source in Portugal, with a share of approximately 48.7%. Coal has a market share of approximately 11.8%, while renewal energy sources ascend to 20% of total primary energy consumption in Portugal s energy imports, mainly natural gas, are transported through Spain via pipelines and discharge into LNG Terminal at Sines while oil arrives at the country s Sines and Porto terminals. Natural Gas The sales of natural gas in Portugal are organized in three large segments: Page 3

4 The electricity segment, which includes the electrical plants of Tapada do Outeiro and TER (Termoeléctrica do Ribatejo), The industrial segment, which includes several industries such as ceramic, textiles, the food industry and the glass industry, and Natural gas marketing companies that supply customers with lower consumption levels, such as residential customers and small enterprises. In July 2011, the average natural gas consumption was approximately 15,691 10³/tep. Portugal is not a natural gas production country and did not export natural gas in However, since the LNG Terminal in Sines, operated by REN Atlântico, is currently over an expansion process which will allow it to increase its storage capability by almost 40% in It is expected that Portugal will become a natural gas exporter, despite not being a producer. If that happens, Portugal can export natural gas by LNG ships and also through the pipeline that enters into Spain in Badajoz and Tui. The distribution of natural gas in Portugal is provided by six distributors five of which are Galp Energia subsidiaries - that operate under concession contracts and four so-called autonomous natural gas distribution units, where Galp Energia also has equity holdings and which operate under license. Major Companies: EDP - Energias de Portugal, S.A. - The EDP is present in the gas business in Portugal by EDP Gás S.G.P.S., S.A., sub-holding for gas business. EDP Gás is responsible for managing all the activities of the EDP along the gas value chain, including supply, transportation, distribution and marketing in the Iberian Peninsula. Gás de Portugal (GdP), a subsidiary of Galp Energia, is the dominant player in Portugal s natural gas sector, controlling gas imports, distribution, transmission and Page 4

5 sales of natural gas. GdP has a stake in all of the country s six regional natural gas distributors (Lisboagás, Portgás, Lusitâniagás, Setgás, Tagusgás, and Beiragás). Oil Supply Portugal has no significant proven reserves of oil. As of December 2011, there is no indigenous oil production, although some oil exploration activities are still conducted. The table below represents the key data for Oil sector in Porutgal. Table 2: Portugal Key Oil Data 2011 Total Oil Production (Thousand barrels Per day) 5.2 Crude Oil, NGPL, and Other Liquids 1.9 Refinery Processing Gain 3.2 Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand barrels Per day) Crude Oil Imports (Thousand Barrels Per Cal Day) Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) There are two refineries in Portugal, both of which are owned by Petrogal (a Galp Energia company), with a combined crude oil refining capacity of 304 kb/d (15.2 Mt/year). The larger refinery, located at Sines on the coast of southern Portugal, has a refining capacity of 215 kb/d (10.8Mt/year), accounting for 71% of the country s total capacity. The Porto refinery, smaller and relatively less complex, is located on the north-western coast of the country and has a distillation capacity of around 89 kb/d (4.4 Mt/year). Lack of cross-border pipelines has meant that nearly all imports of crude oil pass through the two major ports on the Atlantic Ocean. The oil terminal at Port Sines, which is operational yearround, has the capacity to unload around 64 kb/hour and supports Very Large Crude Carriers. Due to difficult weather conditions in winter, the oil terminal at Leixões Port does not receive oil tankers during 50 to 80 days per year. To solve this problem, Petrogal installed a single point mooring (SPM) terminal (a buoy) at sea, some three kilometres offshore and it is connected to the Petrogal Refinery through an underwater pipeline. The SPM has an unloading capacity of some 50 kb/hour. Page 5

6 In addition to the two major ports, smaller ports and terminals such as at Aveiro, Lisbon and Setubal, as well as at the Madeira and Acores autonomic regions can be used for imports and exports of refined products, which enhance flexibility of response during emergencies. Oil products are distributed to inland areas through the Companhia Logística de Combustíveis (CLC) pipeline, a multi-product pipeline between the Sines refinery and the tank farm at Aveiras (45 km north of Lisbon). Major Companies: The most important player of the Portuguese oil market is Galp Energia. Petrogal, a Galp company, operates the two oil refineries in the country and has a strong position in the domestic oil market. Through its oil retail and wholesale divisions, Galp/Petrogal is directly involved in all sectors of the market. The company owns 33% of all service stations in Portugal. The retail gasoline market in mainland Portugal is highly concentrated, with the three main operators, Galp, Repsol and BP, accounting for over 70% of outlets. There are also a number of small independent players involved in the retail market, including the major supermarket/ hypermarket chains. Industry News Portuguese energy company Energias de Portugal SA (EDP.LB), or EDP, announced that its Q1, 2012 net profit decreased by 1.5% from a year earlier, despite a strong performance at its renewable energy unit, due to higher financial costs. On May 11, 2012, EDP s chief executive announced that Energy giant China Three Gorges (CTG) will invest 2 billion (bn) ($2.55 bn) in buying stakes in wind farms owned by Portugal s EDP as part of its 2.7 bn purchase of a 21.35% stake in the company from the Portuguese government. CTG will take stakes of 34-49% in 900MW of operational and 600MW of ready-to-build projects between 2012 and Page 6

7 In April 2012, Chinese oil group Sinopec officially completed a deal to buy a 30% stake in Petrogal Brasil which is responsible for oil and gas exploration and production activities of Portugal s Galp Energia in Brazil. Page 7

8 References US/EstudosEconomicos/Publicacoes/IndicadoresConjuntura/Publications/ind_mai12_e.pdf Instituto Nacional de Estatistica International Comparative Legal Guides (ICLG) Portugal Chapter Gas Regulation Power/Gas-Natural/Paginas/Mercado-em-Portugal.aspx 10. International Comparative Legal Guides (ICLG) Portugal Chapter Gas Regulation Oil & Gas Security Emergency Response of IEA Countries, &eyid=2009&unit=TBPD Oil & Gas Security Emergency Response of IEA Countries, Page 8