Project Management: Implementation Opportunities and Challenges
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1 Project Management: Implementation Opportunities and Challenges Ivan Damnjanovic Associate Professor and The Beavers/Urban 41 Fellow in Construction Engineering and Management Zachry Department of Civil Engineering Texas A&M University / Texas Transportation Institute
2 Perspectives Change
3 Perspectives Change
4 Project Manager as Integrator in Project Planning
5
6 District Engineer vs. Project Manager Head of the continuous business/organizational unit. Objective Manage the system to produce the most benefits to the overall organization High level of risk aversion Head of one-time project effort Objective Manage the project to deliver a facility that meets its intended function at the minimum cost within the acceptable time limits Medium level of risk aversion
7 Refinery Manager as Project Manager?
8 Why should Owners have Project Management Divisions? Internal project management resources allow for more efficient procurement (cost, schedule & other requirements/features) Application of standard project management process creates project ownership and a link between all phases of project development and execution Allows for program and project risk management
9 Advances in Project Risk Management One of the most important aspect of project management Relates to the bottom line (costs and benefits) Increase Cost at Risk Increase Duration at Risk Increase Quality/Function at Risk Allows for contingency planning and control Provides basis for risk-informed decision-making External Risk: Contracting as a mitigation solution Internal Risk: Estimating the risk event likelihood
10 External Risks: Cement, Steel, and Oil
11 With external risks cost of all projects in program go up or down at the same time. (Commodity Price Roller Coaster) Very difficult to budget and manage project!
12 Construction Programs All projects are affected by external risk factors Contractors include contingencies (premiums) in the bid prices if they have to retain this risk (no price escalation adjustment clauses). High variance High premium Agencies would like to minimize cost while taking on an acceptable level of risk exposure. This can be done using adjustment clause that allows price adjustment based on the current commodity prices.
13 Price Adjustment Clauses Material prices ($) Barrier 2 Barrier1 Path 3 Path 2 Path 1 S 0 0 Contract (duration) Options for the adjustment clauses are triggered if commodity price reaches a trigger level.
14 Portfolio Expenditures Adjustment clauses or not? With adjustment clauses Without adjustment clauses Time
15 Portfolio Decision-making Project portfolio Project 1 Project 2 Project 3 Premium 1 Premium 2 Premium 3 Adjustment clause 1 Adjustment clause 2 Adjustment clause 3 Diversification Objective Minimize portfolio cost while accepting a certain level of risk exposure
16 Portfolio Expenditures Balanced Portfolio Decision-making Balanced Portfolio Time
17 Risk Management & Prediction Markets How do we estimate the probabilities of the project risk events? Option 1: Data and Statistical Analysis Data intensive where do I find a enough similar projects? Option 2: Expert Opinion How do we aggregate different opinions? Why would people share their opinion?
18 Information Prediction Markets (Example Basketball) A participant buys shares that Houston Rockets will win with a 20 point difference before the game starts. If they win with 20 or more, he/she can exchange the shares for a reward of 100 units; on the other hand, if they win with 20 points or less, the value of the share becomes 0.
19 Information Prediction Markets (Example Construction) A Participant can buy/sell shares that Project A (or part of it) will be completed by a specific date, meet specific standards of quality/cost, or perform in a specific way. If the outcomes are likely, the price of shares will go up (as demand grows) and vice versa, as the outcomes seem less likely, the price will go down.
20 Vet Imaging and Cancer Treatment Center
21 Construction Site DATA Project Plans & Schedule Weekly Progress Reports Weekly Problem Logs Construction Site Photos Minutes of Meetings Revised Schedules
22 Price Changes at Prediction Market Will the contractor meet the substantial dryin project milestone? Price/100 = Probability
23 Questions and Comments?
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