Million MT CWE. Million MT CWE Production Exports

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1 Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service October 5 Production and Trade of All Meats to Expand in 6 Beef and Veal: Global production is forecast to rebound percent higher to 59. million tons. Continuing herd expansion will drive production higher for major traders particularly the, India, and. India continues to expand on growing foreign demand; exports account for 48 percent of production compared to only 8 percent for. Reduced slaughter will drive n production lower as inventories have been depleted and the return of favorable pasture conditions will spur herd rebuilding. Exports by major traders are forecast percent higher to 9.9 million tons on stronger demand. Gains are expected for most major traders including India,, and the United States. India will remain the top exporter as demand improves in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa. ian exports will rebound as a weaker real increases competitiveness and the reopening of the Chinese market creates new opportunities. U.S. production is expected to rise for the first time since as cattle inventories recover on improved pasture conditions and lower feed costs. Exports are forecast 6 percent higher as growing domestic supplies put downward pressure on prices. A reduction in n exports will enable the to regain market share in Asia which will offset stagnant shipments to and. Global Beef Exports Rebound 65.5 India Widens Lead Over As Top Beef Exporter Million MT CWE Million MT CWE Million MT CWE Production Exports India Pork: Global production is forecast virtually unchanged at. million tons on marginal expansion by most countries. After three consecutive years of contraction, Chinese swine inventories are forecast stable in 6 as lower feed costs and higher pork prices spur a slight increase in sows and improved efficiency (pigs per sow and industry consolidation). However, Chinese pork production will remain flat as a decline in slaughter offsets heavier weights. n production is higher on significant capacity investments, industry consolidation, stable feed prices and robust domestic demand. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

2 Exports by major traders are forecast percent higher to nearly 7. million tons as robust supplies drive prices lower, stimulating consumption. Marginal increases in purchases by most major importers will more than offset a further decline in imports by. Among key suppliers, only the will undergo significant export expansion. U.S. production is forecast up percent to a record. million tons on continued strong recovery from PEDv. Exports are forecast over 4 percent higher to.4 million tons as competitive prices will bolster shipments to most markets, particularly. 8 Global Pork Exports Increase Percent 6 Chinese Pork Production Stalls; Rest of World Expands Million MT CWE Million MT CWE Million MT CWE Production Exports Rest of World Broiler Meat: Global production is forecast to increase percent to a record 89. million tons on expansion by all major traders. After surpassing to become the second largest producer in 5, is expected to continue expanding more rapidly due to stable feed costs and increased exports. India, the fastest growing producer, is expected to increase 8 percent on rising demand by a growing middle class. Exports by major traders are forecast to rebound 4 percent to a record.7 million tons. Shipments will increase by the top three suppliers,, the, and the EU, which account for more than three quarters of world trade. Exports will be driven by robust supplies placing downward pressure on prices, lower prices compared to other animal proteins, and a weak euro and ian real. Although constrained by lower oil prices and weak economic growth, many smaller markets will have marginal improvements in demand. U.S. production is forecast to increase percent to a record 8.4 million tons on heavier weights and lower feed costs. Exports are expected to rebound 8 percent to. million tons as lower prices and greater exportable supplies bolster shipments. Broiler Meat Exports Increase 4 U.S. Broiler Meat Exports Rebound 9 Million MT RTC Million MT RTC Million MT RTC 8 7 Million MT RTC Production Exports Production Exports Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 5

3 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade October 5 Contents Summary: Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork and Broiler Meat Special Article: Review of U.S. Tariff Rate Quotas for Beef Imports Beef Beef Summary Tables Cattle Summary Tables Pork Pork Summary Tables Swine Summary Tables Poultry Meat Broiler Meat Summary Tables Notes to Readers Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 5

4 Summary: Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Broiler Meat Beef and Veal, Pork:, Tons Carcass Weight Equivalent / Broiler Meat:, Tons Ready to Cook Equivalent Production 4 5 (p) 6 (f) Percent Change 5 to 6 Beef and Veal 58,6 58,57 59,467 59,746 58,44 59,96.% Pork,58 6,868 8,8,566,458,96.5% Broiler Meat 8,59 8,8 84,494 86,549 87,944 89,6.6% Consumption 4,9 48,677 5,784 56,86 57,845 6,494.% Beef and Veal 56,57 57,47 57,785 57,78 56,466 57,6.% Pork,7 6,6 8,6,44,944,6.% Broiler Meat 79,85 8,64 8,987 84,95 86,76 87,76.% Imports 9,5 44,947 49, 5,74 5,686 55,68.8% Beef and Veal 6,45 6,679 7,489 7,9 7,559 7,7.% Pork 6,558 6,858 6,597 6,58 6,48 6,466.4% Broiler Meat 8,8 8,54 8,689 8,89 8,69 8,69.6% Exports,7,77,775,5,66,87.% Beef and Veal 8,7 8,8 9,6 9,99 9,6 9,96.4% Pork 6,955 7,68 7,7 6,87 7,45 7,59.6% Broiler Meat 9,57,87,55,47,, % U.S. Exports 4,6 5,49 6,48 7, 6,977 7,87.% Beef and Veal,6,,74,67,5, 6.% Pork,57,44,6,,68,7 4.5% Broiler Meat,65,99,,,99, 7.7% 6,785 6,85 6,768 6,68 6,9 6,69 6.% U.S. Market Share (%) of Exports Among Major Traders Beef and Veal 6% 4% % % % % Pork 4% 4% % % % % Broiler Meat % % % % 9% % Combined 8% 7% 6% 4% % 4% Notes: s include only those countries that make up USDA s official PSD database are reported. This means totals do not encompass all production, consumption, and trade, but rather the sum of those countries reported in USDA s database, which represent the most important markets in the world meat PSD situation. In an attempt to capture these major players, the list of countries reported changes periodically. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 5

5 Million Tons Special Article: Review of U.S. Tariff Rate Quotas for Beef Imports Background on U.S. Beef Trade The is the world s largest producer of beef, but also imports more than any other country. U.S. producers specialize in raising high-valued grain-fed cattle, while imports largely consist of lower-value grass-fed lean product that is processed into ground beef. Overall, imports accounted for slightly more than percent of beef supplies in 4. From -, the was a net exporter of beef on a volume-basis. However, imports surpassed exports in 4 as domestic production declined nearly 6 percent. Falling production was triggered by severe drought in the Southern plains and high feed prices which caused farmers to reduce their herds between 9 and 4. Reductions in the cow inventory led to lower production of lean (non-fed) beef increasing demand for lean processing meat. Lower supplies have led beef prices to accelerate, but demand has been resilient. Rising imports of both processing beef and table cuts have offset some, but not all, of the lower production. Elevated cattle prices and improved pasture conditions have spurred expansion in the cattle sector beginning in 5 with beef production forecast to increase next year. However, in the short-term, cow slaughter will be lower as producers retain beef cows for herd rebuilding and this continues to support demand for imported lean beef. Beef imports totaled $5. billion (957, tons product weight) in 4 and exports totaled $6. billion (859, tons). While imports exceeded exports on volume-basis, the value of exports was greater due to higher average unit values of exports (grain-fed beef) than imports (lean processing beef).. 4: Imports of Beef Exceed Exports, First Time in 5 Years due to tight U.S. supplies Imports Exports. 4 Source: FAS Global Agricultural Trade System Top Suppliers of Imported Beef was the leading supplier of U.S. beef imports in 4, while and New Zealand were a distant second and third. The bulk of shipments from and New Zealand are frozen boneless beef for processing. Shipments from and are typically highervalued fresh/chilled product and include beef sold as cuts. Beef imports include fresh, chilled and frozen muscle cuts under HS headings and and exclude processed and prepared products which are not subject to U.S. tariff rate quotas. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 5

6 Thousand Tons, Source: FAS Global Agricultural Trade System Top Suppliers of U.S. Beef Imports, Widens Lead Over 4 Other New Zealand Sanitary Requirements for U.S. Beef Imports Obtaining U.S. beef market access is a multi-step process. Countries must first be approved by the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) based on animal disease status. APHIS assesses the risks of introducing animal diseases as a result of trade. In addition, the Food Safety Inspection Service (FSIS) certify that foreign food regulatory systems employ equivalent sanitary measures to U.S. standards. Currently, countries are eligible to ship fresh or frozen beef to the :,, Chile, Costa Rica, Honduras, Iceland, Ireland,, New Zealand, Nicaragua, and Uruguay. U.S. Tariff Rate Quotas and Imports of Beef in 4 Quota fillrate In-quota Rate of duty Country U.S. Imports / Tariff-rate quota Above-quota Tons Million dollars Tons Percent 89,64 $,85 Unlimited NA % NA 8,6 $78 Unlimited NA % NA TRQ countries Argentina $, % 4.4 cents/kg 6.4% 44,69 $, 48,4 / 8% %.% 4 $ 7% 4.4 cents/kg 6.4% New Zealand 86,48 $96,4 87% 4.4 cents/kg 6.4% Uruguay 9,6 $54, 96% 4.4 cents/kg 6.4% Other / 55,585 $88 64,85 86% 4.4 cents/kg 6.4% TRQs 65,767 $5,9 76,6 85% / Imports include fresh/chilled and frozen beef only. Prepared and processed products are not subject to TRQs. Volumes are published by Customs and Border Protection, value is published by U.S. Census Bureau. / s total TRQ includes a WTO quota of 78,4 plus an FTA quota of 4, tons. Excludes 4, tons at reduced tariff. / The Other TRQ is open to other countries that do not have a country-specific quota. Sources: U.S. Customs and Border Protection; FAS Global Agricultural Trade System; U.S. International Trade Commission Harmonized Tariff Schedule 5. For more information on requirements, see Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 5

7 U.S. World Trade Organization (WTO) Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs) As a result of the 995 WTO Uruguay Round Agreement, the adopted a system of TRQs for imports of beef. The two-tiered system allows a specified volume of imports per calendar year at a lower (or zero) rate of duty and assigns a higher tariff rate to volumes abovequota. Two types of U.S. TRQs were established through WTO negotiations: Country-Specific TRQs: Created for,, New Zealand, Uruguay, and Argentina (see table). Other Countries TRQ: Provides preferential-duty access for other countries that are eligible to ship beef to the. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) TRQs TRQs are also created via FTAs, which are typically established as a transitional step towards duty-free access. The following agreements expanded beef market access into the : North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA): As of January 8, NAFTA was fully implemented, resulting in duty-free and unlimited access for beef among the United States, and. and are among the top suppliers of U.S. beef imports, accounting for over a third of shipments in 4. : received additional quota access in its 5 FTA with the United States adding to its WTO quota of 78,4 tons. The agreement allowed supplemental duty-free access of 5, tons in the second year after enactment with a further 5, tons added annually or biannually. An additional quota with a reduced duty rate of percent allows,5 tons in the first year and rising to 7, tons in. In 5 and 6, total duty-free quota access is 48,4 tons with a further 4, tons at reducedduty. Unlimited duty-free access begins in. CAFTA-DR: The 4 Dominican Republic-Central America FTA (CAFTA-DR) established preferential quotas for each of the 6 parties: Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua (see table). FTA TRQs are contingent on first filling of the WTO Other Countries quota currently available to Costa Rica, Honduras, and Nicaragua which has yet to happen. Currently, these three members are eligible to ship beef to the and imports totaled $87 million in 4. Since the agreement was signed, beef imports from CAFTA-DR countries have risen to nearly 6, tons in 4. In, CAFTA-DR countries will have duty-free unlimited access. Partners CAFTA-DR Tariff Rate Quotas 4 U.S. Beef Imports FTA TRQs (5) Million dollars Tons Tons Costa Rica $47 9,6 5,54 Dominican Republic $,4 El Salvador $ 5 Guatemala $ Honduras $5, 75 Nicaragua $6 46,66 5, of CAFTA-DR $87 59,,54 Source: U.S. International Trade Commission Harmonized Tariff Schedule 5. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 5

8 Other FTAs: Access has also been extended to the following countries through their respective U.S. FTAs: Bahrain, Chile, Colombia, Jordan, Morocco, Oman, Panama, and Singapore. TRQs are granted during the initial period of implementation and become unlimited at full implementation. At this time, only Chile is currently eligible to ship beef to the. Beef Access from Free Trade Agreements 5 FTA TRQs (Tons) First Year of Implementation Full Implementation (Unlimited Access) Partner Bahrain Unlimited 6 5 Chile Unlimited 4 7 Colombia 6,78 Morocco,5 6 Oman 6, Panama 49 6 Singapore Unlimited 4 Source: U.S. International Trade Commission Harmonized Tariff Schedule 5 WTO Other Countries TRQ Eligible countries without a country-specific quota can access the other countries TRQ of 64,85 tons. Currently, 5 countries (Costa Rica, Honduras, Iceland, Ireland, and Nicaragua) use the quota, which provides a preferential duty rate of 4.4 cents per kilogram. Imports above 64,58 must pay the full tariff of 6.4 percent ad valorem. In 4, the other countries quota reached a fill-rate of 86 percent for the six eligible countries (see figure), reflecting strong U.S. import demand. The fill-rate has climbed steadily over the past years from a low of 45 percent in 5. Once the WTO quota fills, country-specific TRQs from enacted FTAs will take effect, allowing an additional, tons for CAFTA-DR countries. As agreements are fully implemented, FTA partners will receive unlimited access, reducing pressure on the other countries TRQ. Quota Allocation The does not intervene in quota allocation; rather this is at the discretion of the exporting countries. For example, some countries distribute licenses to exporters. maintains a system by which the quota is filled first-come first-served until reaching a fill-rate of 85 percent. The remaining 5 percent is allocated based on historical quota use. The other countries quota is first-come first-serve among the eligible countries. For more information on s quota allocation system, please see: Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 5

9 Thousand Tons U.S. Beef Imports and Quota Fill-Rates in 4 4 Unlimited Unlimited Fill-rate = 8% Imports TRQ 87% 86% % 96% New Zealand Argentina Uruguay Other Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection Future U.S. Market Access If additional countries receive APHIS and FSIS approval to ship fresh/frozen beef, competition for the other countries quota is likely to accelerate, at least in the short-term. Under the current scenario, if a new country becomes eligible, such as, imports could either displace shipments from other countries or be imported at the above-quota tariff rate. After, competition by existing countries for the other countries TRQ will lessen as CAFTA-DR is fully implemented. Nicaragua, which accounted for over 7 percent of quota use in 4, will have unlimited access, creating opportunities for other shippers. Further quota expansion could be obtained through future WTO negotiations (such as further Doha Round discussions) or future FTAs. For more information contact Lindsay Kuberka Lindsay.Kuberka@fas.usda.gov, () , USDA-FAS,, Global Commodity Analysis Division Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 5

10 Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent) Oct Production 9, 9,7 9,675 9,7 9,45 9,6 8,4 7,78 7,88 7,44 7,54 7,56 6,475 6,6 6,7 6,89 6,75 6,785 India,8,49,8 4, 4, 4,5 Argentina,5,6,85,7,74,68,9,5,59,595,55,,84,8,87,87,845,865 Pakistan,56,587,6,675,75,775,6,8,8,7,55,,4,6,49,99, ,75 8,9 9,48 9,48 8,47 8,467 Foreign 46,77 46,679 47,76 48,67 47,58 47,87,98,848,75,76,86,89 58,6 58,57 59,467 59,746 58,44 59,96 Dom. Consumption 7,7 7,845 7,885 7,896 7,87 7,89 8,4 7,76 7,5 7,55 7,6 7,6 6,449 6,68 7,5 7,97 7,5 7,45 Argentina,,458,664,5,5,45 India,4,8,5,8,,5,46,98,9,89,47,5,9,86,87,89,765,7 Pakistan,5,58,576,67,66,76,7,55,,6,,5 Colombia ,475,64,4,9 9,949,58 Foreign 44,87 45,8 46,77 46,466 45,66 45,5,646,79,68,4,4,67 56,57 57,47 57,785 57,78 56,466 57,6 Notes: May contain meat of other bovines. From 5, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Azerbaijan, Cote d'ivoire, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, Senegal and Uzbekistan. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 5

11 Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent) Oct Imports 994,7, Hong Kong Korea, South Egypt Malaysia Chile ,956,98,,68,745,794 Foreign 5,58 5,67 6,469 6,56 6, 6, 9,7,,7,559,8 6,45 6,679 7,489 7,9 7,559 7,7 Exports India,68,4,765,8,,75,4,54,849,99,65,775,4,47,59,85,85,65 New Zealand Paraguay Uruguay Argentina Foreign 6,89 7,6 7,95 8,8 8,566 8,86,6,,74,67,5, 8,7 8,8 9,6 9,99 9,6 9,96 Notes: May contain meat of other bovines. From 5, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Azerbaijan, Cote d'ivoire, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, Senegal and Uzbekistan. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 5

12 Cattle Selected Countries Summary (in, head) Oct Cattle Beg. Stks India,5, 99,66,6,,6 9,95 97,55,7 7,959,5 9,9 6,64,65,44,,45,5 87,8 87,54 87,6 87,69 88,88 88,6 Argentina 48,56 49,597 5,95 5,545 5,545 5,995 7,55 8,56 9, 9,9 7,6 6,5 9,97,4 9,9 9,564 9,5 8,665,456,9 8,5 7,76 7, 6,45 Uruguay,4,,84,9,5,6,55,45,5,,9,9 7, 68,64 66, 64,5,87,786 Foreign 898,7 898,77 9,755 95,5 874,65 878,58 9,887 9,6 9,95 88,56 89,8 9,9 99, ,7 99,85 994,8 964,45 97,48 Production (Calf Crop) India 6,5 6,5 65, 66, 67, 68, 44,5 48, 48,8 47,9 49, 49,5 49,445 49,69 5,85 49,6 48, 48,5, 9,8 9,5 9, 9, 9,5 Argentina,,7 4,,,7 4, 9,64 9,, 9,564 9,5 9,5 6,9 6,8 6,7 6,75 6,85 6,95 7,9 6,9 6,8 6,67 6,5 6,46 New Zealand 4,786 4,96 4,9 5,44 5,78 5,5 4,64 4,46 4,56 4,66 4,4 4,75 4,649 4,748 4,94 4,5,85, Foreign 47,47 5,667 55,8 5,64 49,85 5,96 5,57 4,469,7,9 4, 5, 8,8 86,6 88,88 87,54 84,5 85,96 Notes: May contain other bovines. From 5, Colombia and Venezuela are excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 5

13 Cattle Selected Countries Summary (in, head) Oct Imports Egypt Argentina Belarus Foreign 75,56,, ,7,8,,58,5,5,8,9,4,5,6,66 Exports,45,59,45,76,, ,98,, 696 8,44,45, Uruguay Ukraine New Zealand Foreign 4,68 4,69 4,487 5,49 4,69 4, ,46 4,8 4,648 5,57 4,77 4,466 Notes: May contain other bovines. From 5, Colombia and Venezuela and excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 5

14 Pork Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent) Oct Production 5,64 5,47 54,9 56,7 56,75 56,5,95,56,59,5,,9,7,,5,4,45,5,64,75,4,5,6,78 Vietnam,6,7,49,45,45,475,87,844,8,85,84,88 Philippines,88,,4,5,7,9,,9,84,9,5,85,67,97,9,64,7,9 Korea, South 87,86,5,,, 5,79 5,77 5,98 5,76 5,69 5,8 Foreign 9,5 96,4 98,98,96,,648,,554,55,7,58,4,58 6,868 8,8,566,458,96 Dom. Consumption 5,8 5,8 55,46 57,69 57, 57,4,8,8,47,8,66,58,5,9,67,4,99,979,644,67,75,846,887,9,5,557,549,54,545,54 Vietnam,8,75,5,89,4,47,7,85,956,99,5,95 Korea, South,487,546,68,77,8,857 Philippines,4,446,5,55,579,69 Taiwan ,96 7,46 7,7 6,887 6,547 6,69 Foreign 94,8 97,89 99,695,94,64,87 8,7 8,44 8,665 8,65 9,4 9,49,7 6,6 8,6,44,944,6 Note: From 5, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Armenia, Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Switzerland and Trinidad and Tobago. From 6, Venezuela is excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 5

15 Pork Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent) Oct Imports,54,59,,,7, Korea, South Hong Kong Philippines , Singapore ,9, Foreign 6,94 6,494 6,98 5,9 5,96 6, ,558 6,858 6,597 6,58 6,48 6,466 Exports,5,65,7,66,5,,97,4,46,8,, Chile Serbia Vietnam South Africa Foreign 4,598 4,88 4,765 4,67 4,877 4,889,57,44,6,,68,7 6,955 7,68 7,7 6,87 7,45 7,59 Note: From 5, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Armenia, Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Switzerland and Trinidad and Tobago. From 6, Venezuela is excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 5

16 Swine Selected Countries Summary (in, head) Oct Beginning Stocks 464,6 468,67 475,9 474, 465,8 4, 5,6 49,89 46,98 46,7 48, 47,5 6,65 8,6 8,577 8,844 9,95 4,5 7, 7,58 8,86 9,8 9,45,5,65,65,6,94,65, Korea, South 8,449 8,7 9,96 9,9,9, 9,7 9,76 9,5 9,775 9,7 9,6 9,768 9,75 9,685 9,57 9,44 9,59 Ukraine 7,96 7,7 7,577 7,9 7,5 7, Belarus,887,989 4,4,67,94,65,89,85,8,98,8, Foreign 74,89 77,484 75,976 7,66 78,8 68,95 64,75 66,59 66,4 64,775 67,776 68,5 789,544 79,74 8, 798,46 795,856 75,94 Production (Pig Crop) 67,96 77,47 7,97 79,97 667, 75, 64,655 57,6 57, 6,75 64, 6,,65 4,5 6, 7, 8,65 9,75 7,75 7,7 7,9 8,47 9,5 9,65 8,5 8,47 7,76 7,78 7,85 8, 6,975 7,5 7,8 7,6 7,85 9, Korea, South,8 6,4 6,95 6,8 7, 7,5 7, 7,5 7,5 7,5 7,5 7, Ukraine 8,9 8,58 9,465 9,57 9, 9, Belarus 5,45 5,775 5,5 4,85 5,5 5,5 4,659 4,58 4,77 4,985 4,85 4,85 Foreign,97,7,5,8,5,877,65,49,7,95,48,5 5,86 6,655 5,5 4,856,,975,,,5,86,66,,79,95,8,5,7, Note: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 5

17 Swine Selected Countries Summary (in, head) Oct Imports Ukraine Belarus Korea, South Foreign ,795 5,656 4,948 4,947 5,55 5, 6,744 6,9 5,8 5, 5,66 5,95 Exports 5,8 5,676 4,784 4,96 5,55 5,5,56,64,684,77,7,6, Belarus 5 Korea, South Foreign 8,54 8,66 7,9 7,68 7,8 7, ,544 8, 7,7 7,87 7,88 7, Note: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 5

18 Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent) Oct Production,86,645,8,69,8,48,,7,5,,5, 9, 9,565 9,9,,6,845 India,9,6,45,75,9 4,,575,8,,6,55,65,96,958,97,5,,6 Argentina,77,4,6,5,6, Turkey,69,77,94,956,98,99 Thailand,5,55,5,57,65,65 Indonesia,55,54,55,565,65,64 4,447 4,99 5,549 6,77 5,48 5,56 Foreign 64,465 66,66 67,58 69,5 69,978 7,97 6,694 6,6 6,976 7,99 7,966 8,65 8,59 8,8 84,494 86,549 87,944 89,6 Dom. Consumption,6,54,74,8,88,985 9, 9,98 9,498 9,96,6,75 9,4 9,9 8,89 9,7 9,44 9,64 India,89,56,445,76,89 4,9,474,568,58,78,85,9,,56,5,676,775,75,5,4,9,6,45,5 Argentina,556,7,79,77,86,876 South Africa,5,58,556,57,65,665 Indonesia,55,54,55,565,65,64 8,67 9,75,4,779, 9,898 Foreign 66,75 68,94 69,96 7,98 7,8 7,4,66,46,69 4,4 4,996 5, 79,85 8,64 8,987 84,95 86,76 87,76 Notes: Chicken paws are excluded. From 5, the following countries are excluded: Bahrain, Georgia, Iran, Jamaica and Moldova. From 6, Venezuela is excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 5

19 Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent) Oct Imports Saudi Arabia Iraq South Africa Hong Kong Angola Cuba ,4,487,54,545,4,4 Foreign 8,79 8,489 8,64 8,84 8,58 8, ,8 8,54 8,689 8,89 8,69 8,69 Exports,44,58,48,558,74,88,44,94,8,,5,9 Thailand Turkey Argentina Ukraine Belarus Chile Foreign 6,48 6,788 6,9 7,58 7,4 7,467,65,99,,,99, 9,57,87,55,47,,688 Notes: Chicken paws are excluded. From 5, the following countries are excluded: Bahrain, Georgia, Iran, Jamaica and Moldova. From 6, Venezuela is excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 5

20 Notes to Readers The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of the current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, and broiler meat trade. Exclusions Beginning in 5: Cattle: Colombia and Venezuela. Beef: Albania, Azerbaijan, Cote d Ivoire, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, Senegal and Uzbekistan. Pork: Albania, Armenia, Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Switzerland and Trinidad and Tobago. Broiler Meat: Bahrain, Georgia, Iran, Jamaica and Moldova. Exclusions Beginning in 6: Pork: Venezuela Broiler Meat: Venezuela Data Modifications Prior to 4: Cattle/Beef: The cattle PSD for the following country are revised for particular years during the 99- period on additional official production data available: Belarus The beef PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 99- period on additional/revised official production data available: Algeria,, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Colombia, Congo (Brazzaville), Cote d Ivoire, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Israel, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Oman, Peru, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, and. The beef PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the - period on additional/revised trade data available: Azerbaijan, Dominican Republic, Ghana, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Malaysia, Vietnam, and. Swine/Pork: The swine PSD for the following country are revised for particular years during the 99- period on additional official production data available: Belarus The pork PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 996- period due to additional/revised official production data: Angola, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina,, Cuba, Ecuador, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Macau, New Zealand, Norway, Serbia, South Africa and the. The pork PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the - period due to additional/revised official trade data: Armenia, Bahamas, Ghana, Jamaica, Serbia. Broiler Meat: The broiler meat PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 99- period on additional production data available: Belarus, Malaysia, South Africa, Taiwan, and Vietnam. The broiler meat PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the - period on additional trade data available: Angola, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Philippines, and the. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 5

21 Assumptions Diseases: Forecast reflects disease (avian influenza, bovine spongiform encephalopathy, etc.) policies and restrictions in place as of October 9, 5 and assumes their continuation. Conversion Rates Beef &Veal Pork Conversion Rate.4. HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: Frozen: Processed: & 65 Broiler Meat Conversion Rate HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 7., 7. Frozen: 7., 7.4 Processed: 6. Fresh/Chilled:,, 9 Frozen:,, 9 Processed:,, 9, 64, 64, 649 Turkey Meat Fresh/Chilled: 7.4, 7.6, 7., 7.4, 7.5 Frozen: 7.5, 7.7, 7., 7.6 Processed: 6. Note: There are several exceptions by country/product. In general, chicken paws are excluded and carabeef (buffalo meat) is included. Technical Notes CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unless otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal after slaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of the meat product exported. FAS Reports from Overseas Offices The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is based on post reports submitted since January 5 and on available secondary information. The individual country reports can be obtained on FAS Online at: PSD Online The entire USDA PSD database is available online at: Additional Resources Please refer to the USDA-FAS Dairy, Livestock and Poultry website at: for additional data and analysis. Situation and outlook information on U.S. livestock and poultry can be obtained from the USDA-Economic Research Service at: dairy,-and-poultry-outlook/. Future Releases and Contact Information Please visit to view archived and future releases. The next release of this circular will be in April 6. To receive the circular via , go to: Questions may be directed to the following staff: Lindsay Kuberka () Lindsay.Kuberka@fas.usda.gov Cattle and Beef Tyler Cozzens () Tyler.Cozzens@fas.usda.gov Swine and Pork Joanna Hitchner () Joanna.Hitchner@fas.usda.gov Poultry Meat Claire Mezoughem () Claire.Mezoughem@fas.usda.gov Cross-Commodity Analyst Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 5