CASPIAN STUDIES PROGRAM

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1 CASPIAN STUDIES PROGRAM Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project Harvard University NEWSLETTER AUGUST 2001 Editor: Emily Van Buskirk The Caspian Studies Program (CSP) newsletter highlights CSP events, publications, and research activities. Nagorno-Karabagh: What Next? Following the April negotiations convened in Key West, Florida by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, CSP organized a panel discussion entitled Negotiations on Nagorno-Karabagh: Where Do We Go From Here? Dr. Brenda Shaffer moderated the discussion between participants, represented by Ambassador Carey Cavanaugh, U.S. Special Negotiator for Nagorno-Karabagh and NIS Regional Conflicts, and OSCE Minsk Group Co- Chair; Professor Hamlet Isaxanli, President of Khazar University in Baku; and Professor Ronald Suny of the Department of Political Science at the University of Chicago. The panelists discussed the progress made at Key West, the prospects for peace moving forward, and the challenges to establishing lasting peace in the region. More than one hundred people attended, including: researchers; graduate students; current and former U.S., Azerbaijani, and Armenian government officials; journalists; and other members of the Harvard Community. The first two USACC Fellows to enroll in the mid-career MPA Program at the Kennedy School graduated on June 7, 2001: Fuad Akhundov (pictured above with Graham Allison, Director of the Belfer Center and CSP Chair) and Tahir Kerimov (pictured on p. 5). Dinner for GUUAM Ambassadors The Caspian Studies Program and the Black Sea Regional Security Program co-hosted a dinner at the Kennedy School of Government following the GUUAM conference on May 31. Special guests in attendance were Tedo Japaridze, Ambassador from the Republic of Georgia; Volodymyr Yatsenkivskyi, Minister Counsellor from the Republic of Ukraine; Hafiz Mir Jalal Pashayev, Ambassador from the Republic of Azerbaijan; and Ceslav Ciobanu, Ambassador from the Republic of Moldova. General (Ret.) John Reppert, Executive Director for Research at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs delivered the keynote address. The GUUAM conference itself was convened by the Black Sea Regional Security Program, which brought 28 officials from 9 countries in the Caspian and Black Sea regions and 23 U.S. officials to the Kennedy School for a 10-day executive session aimed at enhancing understanding of the common interests and shared problems in the region among national security elites. To access CSP research products, please go to

2 Outreach to Policymakers In June, Dr. Brenda Shaffer traveled to Azerbaijan, where she spoke at two major research seminars cosponsored by CSP and Khazar University (Baku) at Khazar. At the first seminar, Karabagh: War and Peace she appeared on a panel with Foreign Minister Vilayet Quliyev (pictured on p.2), who remarked that Azerbaijan will not refuse the services of the Minsk Group, since the question of a Karabagh settlement is located at the center of attention of the presidents of the three cochair countries. One hundred fifty invitees attended the seminar, including Ambassadors from the UK, France, Iran, and Israel, representatives from the U.S. and Russian embassies, and members of the Azerbaijani parliament. The second seminar discussed Azerbaijaini National Identity. Panelists were: Prof. Hamlet Isaxanli and Prof. Nasib Nasibli both from Khazar University; Prof. Doug Blum from Brown University; and Dr. Brenda Shaffer. Both seminars were covered by all the major newspapers in Azerbaijan. Dr. Shaffer also lectured at the Open Society Institute on Culture and Foreign Policy: the Case of the Caspian, and at Baku State University on U.S. Caspian policy. She met with representatives of President Aliyev s office, U.S. Ambassador Ross Wilson, oil company executives, and leading Azerbaijani intellectuals. As part of CSP s outreach efforts in Washington D.C., Dr. Shaffer gave a lecture sponsored by the External Research Staff of the Bureau of Intelligence and Research at the U.S. State Department on Russian- Iranian relations and cooperation, which is the subject of her Policy Paper recently published by the Washington Institute of Near East Policy. In May, Dr. Shaffer gave a lecture about U.S. policy toward the Caucasus at the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV) in Istanbul. Dr. Roger Kangas, Professor of Central Asian Studies at the George C. Marshall European Center for Strategic Studies spoke at the same event about policy toward Central Asia. Over In Azerbaijan, Foreign Minister Vilayet Quliyev, Khazar University President Hamlet Isaxanli, and CSP Research Director Brenda Shaffer discuss solutions to Nagorno- Karabagh (June ). thirty journalists, policymakers, and business leaders attended, including a contingent of executives from BP s Ankara office. Dr. Shaffer made a trip to Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia in January 2001 to meet with government officials, speak on national television stations, and give lectures to policymakers. While in the Caucasus she conducted a day-long seminar for officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Azerbaijan; delivered a lecture to the Georgian Parliament that was broadcast live on Georgian TV; and conducted a roundtable discussion with representatives of various branches in the Armenian Foreign Ministry, hosted by Deputy Foreign Minister Reuben Shougarian. After her trip, Dr. Shaffer reported that officials and scholars in the region are making good use of CSP research products and the web page. Case on U.S. Energy Policy Energy policy has become a hot topic with President Bush s proposal of a longterm, comprehensive energy policy, California s rolling blackouts, and volatile prices at the gas pumps. This spring, Graham Allison (CSP Chair) led over sixty students through an examination of U.S. policy on Caspian energy development and exports in Caspian Studies Program 2

3 the perennially popular Kennedy School course on Central Issues of American Foreign Policy, co-taught by Professor Allison and Ambassador Robert Blackwill. CSP then published the minicase and paradigm from the course (along with top student answers). Written by Graham Allison and Emily Van Buskirk, the mini-case serves as a review and analysis of U.S. policy and broader strategy for the region. Ambassador Elizabeth Jones, who discussed the case with students, called it both realistic and difficult. While she was visiting, Ambassador Jones also gave a seminar on U.S. Caspian Policy. Conferences in Germany, Ukraine, Azerbaijan To continue to address the key issue of energy security, the Belfer Center s International Security Program (ISP), the German Council for Foreign Relations (DGAP), and CSP jointly sponsored an international energy conference in Berlin. Energy executives and researchers from a variety of countries attended, including Germany, France, Sweden, Britain, the U.S. and Kazakhstan. The Harvard delegation to the conference consisted of Dr. Steven Miller, Dr. John Reppert and Dr. Brenda Shaffer and two researchers from Washington, DC: Dr. Patrick Clawson and Lucian Pugliaresi. CSP Research Director Brenda Shaffer contemplated the dynamics of regionalization for the Caspian and Black Sea Basins at an IREX-sponsored conference held in Odessa, Ukraine. Main topics involved movements of goods, people, and ideas in the two Sea regions as well as security and environmental issues. Representing the Caspian Studies Program, Dr. Shaffer spoke on research methodologies at the concluding panel of the conference. In early March 2001, Dr. Shaffer presented some of her research on solutions to the Nagorno-Karabagh conflict as she delivered the keynote speech in Loccum, Germany (available on our web site) at the International Workshop on Peace and Stability in the Caucasus. In order to present regional policymakers and analysts with an interpretation of U.S. policy and interests in the Caspian Region, CSP Program Director Melissa Carr delivered a paper on this topic to an East/West Institute Conference on Black Sea Regional Security in Baku. During her trip to Azerbaijan, Carr also interviewed candidates for the next round of U.S.-Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce Fellowships at the Kennedy School. Briefing Policymakers on Caspian Energy, Security, and Politics In October 2000, CSP launched a Policy Brief publication series designed to analyze crucial issues affecting the Caspian region and propose policy recommendations where applicable. These briefs are geared toward Washington, but are also useful for policymakers in the Caspian region and for academics and researchers. The briefs published thus far are: Putin s Caspian Policy, by Carol Saivetz of Harvard s Davis Center and the American Association for the Advancement of Slavic Studies; Military Cooperation between Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova in the GUUAM Framework, by Tomas Valasek of the Center for Defense Information; Energy Security: How Valuable is Caspian Oil? by Lucian Pugliaresi of LPI Consulting, Inc.; Peace Pending in Nagorno- Karabagh: Recommendations for the International Community, by Blanka Hancilova of the Fletcher School at Tufts; and U.S. Policy toward the Caspian Region: Recommendations for the Bush Administration, by Brenda Shaffer. Power Politics in the Caspian What are the major U.S. and Russian interests in the Caspian Region? On the eve Caspian Studies Program 3

4 of the American presidential elections, CSP held a conference on U.S.- Russian Relations: Implications for the Caspian Region, where American and Russian policymakers and researches gathered to discuss the ways in which their countries relations impact and are affected by events in the region. A conference report with discussion summaries, photos, a transcript of the press conference with Ambassadors Anatoly Adamishin and Carey Cavanaugh, and Brenda Shaffer s Executive Summary with policy recommendations is available on our web page. Pavel Baev examines Russian Policy CSP is publishing a paper by Dr. Pavel Baev (of the International Peace Research Institute in Oslo) on Russian policy in the Southern Caucasus, to become the first issue in our working paper series, which will serve as a forum for academic examinations of key issues and developments affecting the Caspian region. Brenda Shaffer s Publications on Caspian Issues Brenda Shaffer has published prolifically in the past several months and has two books forthcoming. Furthermore, her voice can often be heard in television and radio interviews around the world (in the U.S., Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, Israel, Turkey, Great Britain, to name a few examples). Listed below are a handful of her recent and forthcoming publications, some of which are available on our web site. Identity and Politics: The Azerbaijanis (forthcoming), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs series on security studies, Cambridge: MIT Press. Peace for the Caucasus, Miami Herald, April 4, US Needs a Plan to Halt Russia's Sale of Nuclear Arms to Iran, Boston Globe, March 23, Partners in Need: The Strategic Relationship of Russia and Iran, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Policy Paper No. 57, It s Wrong to Spurn Asia s New Muslim States, Boston Globe, January 2, The Formation of Azerbaijani Collective Identity in Iran, Nationalities Papers, Vol. 28, No. 3., September It's Not About Ancient Hatreds, It's About Current Policies: Islam and Stability in the Caucasus, Caucasian Regional Studies, Vol. 5, No. 1 & 2, CSP Seminars To engage the Harvard community and connect with the broader community of academics and policymakers, CSP conducts an active Caucasus and Caspian seminar series on issues concerning the Caspian region. Below is a list of recent events; research products and photos that emerged from these events can be found on our web page. Kazim Azimov, Professor at Baku State University and CSP Associate: Internal and External Dimensions of Ethnic Conflict in the Caucasus Doug Blum, Professor of Political Science at Providence College, and Carol Saivetz, Research Associate at the Davis Center for Russian Studies: Fishing in Troubled Waters: Russia s Caspian Policy Svante Cornell, Fellow at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at Johns Hopkins University, and Chingiz Mammadov, Senior Program Officer at the National Democratic Institute in Baku: Azerbaijan: Between Authoritarianism and Democracy Writer Thomas Goltz, Sea of Instability: Caspian Politics and Pipelines Hamlet Isaxanli, Khazar University President: Current Trends in Education in Azerbaijan Ambassador Elizabeth Jones, then-senior Advisor for Caspian Basin Energy Diplomacy and now Assistant Secretary at the Bureau for European Affairs: U.S. Caspian Energy Diplomacy: What has Changed? Irakli Machavariani, Personal Representative of the President of Georgia on Political Problems of National Security and Conflict Resolution, State Chancellery of Georgia: Conflicts in Georgia: Effects on Energy Transport and Regional Security Ambassador John Wolf, former Special Advisor for Caspian Basin Energy Policy, The U.S. as a Catalyst in the Caspian Region Caspian Studies Program 4

5 Visiting Scholar Researches Dimensions of Ethnic Conflict Dr. Kazim Azimov, a Professor at Baku State University s Sociology Department, was a visiting CSP Associate from April through July 2001 under the Junior Faculty Development Program (JFDP). JFDP is a nondegree, professional development program administered by the American Councils for International Education and funded by the State Department and the Bureau of Education and Cultural Affairs. Dr. Azimov, whose current focus is comparative ethnic conflict studies, gave a talk on Internal and External Dimensions of Ethnic Conflict in the Caucasus on June 28. New U.S.-Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce Fellows Come to the Kennedy School Officials, executives, and leaders from the public and private sectors in Azerbaijan continue to sharpen their skills, knowledge and expertise through participation in Kennedy School Executive Programs funded by USACC Fellowships. USACC Fellow Chingiz Mammadov, Senior Program Officer at the National Democratic Institute s Baku office, whose government experience includes a position as Chief of Media Relations in the President s office, participated in the Leadership for the 21 st Century Program in May Three USACC Fellows are enrolled in Executive Programs occurring this summer. Altai Efendiyev, Head of the Department of Economic Cooperation and Development at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, is enrolled in the Senior Managers in Government Program occurring July 29- August 17. Mr. Efendiyev s colleague Fikret Pashayev, who is Deputy Head of the Department of Economic Cooperation and Development, is taking part in the Program on The Global Financial System: Structure, Crises, and Reform from July 23 through August 3. Pashayev and Efendiyev will use their Kennedy School training as they work on the restructuring of Azerbaijan s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Finally, Murat Heydarov will be at the Kennedy School from August as part of the Senior Executives in National and International Security Program, where he will interact with other senior leaders from the U.S. and around the world in the public and private sectors. Mr. Heydarov is currently a Senior Security Advisor at BPEx, ltd., but plans to return to government service in the near future. To access our research products, please go to Caspian Studies Program 5

6 The Caspian Studies Program wishes the best of luck to the recent KSG graduates from Azerbaijan: Ramin Isayev (left), USACC Fellow Fuad Akhundov (center), and USACC Fellow Tahir Kerimov (right). If you are aware of someone who would like to receive this newsletter, please send contact information to us by at or by fax to (617) The Caspian Studi es Program seeks to locate the Caspian region on the maps of the American policymaking community as an area in which the U.S. has important national interests and where U.S. policy can make major differences. Through its research and teaching, the Caspian Studies Program raises the profile of the region's opportunities and problems, and utilizes Harvard resources to train new leaders who will shape their countries futures. The Caspian Studies Program and Azerbaijan Initiative are made possible by a generous gift from the United States-Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce and a consortium of companies led by ExxonMobil, Chevron, Aker-Maritime, CCC, and ETPM. CASPIAN STUDIES PROGRAM, SDI PROJECT BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS JFK SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT, HARVARD UNIVERSITY 79 JFK STREET CAMBRIDGE, MA Phone: (617) Fax: (617) SDIJFK@harvard.edu Website: Graham Allison, Chairman Melissa Carr, Program Director Brenda Shaffer, Research Director Emily Goodhue, Staff Assistant Emily Van Buskirk, Research Assistant Peter Rutland and Maury Devine, Fellows Caspian Studies Program 6