!!! EAGC!Market!Information!and!Analysis! Business!Model!

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1 EAGCMarketInformationandAnalysis BusinessModel July28,2014 CharityHanif FundedbyUSAIDandEATH ForEAGC

2 TableofContents INTRODUCTION...4 CURRENTEAGCMARKETINFORMATIONPRODUCTSANDSERVICES...6 EAGC%Grain%Market%Data%System%...%6 InternalMarketsPriceDataSystem...8 CrossJBorderTradeDataSystem...10 Weekly%Regional%Grain%News%Summary%...%10 EAC%Regional%Food%Balance%Sheets%(RFBS)%...%11 Real%Time%Volume%Tracker%...%12 EAGC%GRAIN%magazine% %Marketing%Intelligence%and%Analytics.%...%13 SUMMARYOFKEYFINDINGS...15 BUSINESSMODEL:PROPOSEDEAGCMARKETINFORMATIONPRODUCTSAND SERVICES...16 EAGC%Grain%Market%Data%System%...%16 KeyProductsandServices...16 ValueProposition...17 KeyActivities...18 CustomerSegmentandRelationshipsandCriticalPartnerships...19 RevenueStreams...20 CostStructure...20 EAC%Regional%Food%Balance%Sheets%...%21 KeyProductsandServices...21 ValueProposition...21 KeyActivities...21 CustomerSegmentandRelationshipsandCriticalPartnerships...22 RevenueStreams...23 CostStructure...23 EAGC%Regional%Grain%Trade%Publication%...%23 KeyProductsandServices...23 ValueProposition...23 KeyActivities...24 CustomerSegmentandRelationshipsandCriticalPartnerships

3 RevenueStreams...25 CostStructure...26 OnePTime%Market%Information%and%Analytical%Reports%in%areas%critical%to%Grain%Trade%...%27 KeyProductsandServices...27 ValueProposition...28 KeyActivities...28 CustomerSegmentandRelationshipsandCriticalPartnerships...28 RevenueStreams...28 CostStructure...29 ANNEX1:BIBLIOGRAPHY...30 ANNEX2:LISTOFEXTERNALCONSULTATIONS...31 ANNEX3:SAMPLEOFPRIVATELYPRODUCEDREGIONALGRAINMARKETWEEKLY ANALYTICALNEWSLETTER...33 ANNEX4:MAGAZINESTORYSHEET BLANKSAMPLE...35 ANNEX5:PRELIMINARYLISTOFONEMTIMEMARKETINFORMATIONANDANALYTICAL REPORTS...37 ANNEX6:REVENUEANDCOSTESTIMATESFORPROPOSEDPRODUCTSANDSERVICES

4 Introduction TheEasternAfricaGrainCouncil(EAGC)MarketInformationSystem,includingthose productsbrandedundertheregionalagriculturaltradeintelligencenetwork(ratin), contributestotheoverarchingeagcmissionofincreasingregionaltradeinstaplefoods andenhancingfoodsecuritybycreatingthesystemsandpoliciesnecessaryto build/strengthentheregionalvaluechainthroughthegeneration,coordination,and disseminationofregionalmarketinformationandmarketintelligenceonthegrainand pulsetrade.thefollowingassessmentofeagc smarketinformationsystemproductsand services,andtheensuingsectionwithproposedbusinessmodelaretheresultofa consultativeprocessthatincludedmeetingswithmorethan50grainindustrystakeholders includingeagcmembers,traders,processors,donors,othermiscompaniesand organizations,andpublicsector.thisworkismeanttocoordinatewitheagc s developmentofanorganizationalbusinessplantoguidethedevelopmentofeagcintoa selfjsustaining,membershipjdrivenorganizationby2017.thefollowingbusinessmodel sectionproposesrecommendationsforspecificservicesandidentifiesneededactivities, requiredresources,keycosts(includingdevelopment,maintenance,marketing,etc)and revenuedriversfordeliveringtheseservices. ThegrainmarketineasternAfricaisaregionaltradefocusedondomesticandregional marketswiththeexceptionsofwheatwithitssignificantimportsandsomepulsesthatare soldintoexportmarkets.thisregionalmarketcorrelationincreasestheimportanceof specifictargetedmarketinformationtofacilitaterationalandefficientmovementofgrain commodities,bothbytradeitselfandasaresultofevidencejbasedpredictablegrainpolicy. Inaddition,theTanzaniangrainmarketsarenotasstronglycorrelatedorintegratedinto theregionduetosizeofthecountry,marketlinkagesinthesouthtoneighborsoutsideof easternafrica,anddisruptivetradepolicies,includingasanexampleexportbans. Becauseoftheimpactnationalpolicieshaveonregionalgrainmarketfunction,advocacy andnetworkingwerethemainreasonstheconsultationsreportedforeagcmembership. Marketinformation,whichincludesbasicmarketdata,marketintelligence,anddata analytics,isneededtosupportadvocacyandpolicydevelopment.theregionalpublic sectordoesnothaverobustbasicmarketinformationsystemsthatinmostdevelopedare mostlypublicgoods.reliableandconsistentbasicmarketinformationisnecessaryfor marketintelligenceandanalytics.eagchasbeenfillingthebasicmarketinformationgap fortheregion,thoughafewneworganizationshavelaunchedbasicmarketinformation systemsinselectcountries. Assuch,EAGCplaysafoundingroleintheregionfortheestablishmentofmarket informationsystems,collection,anddissemination.thispositionseagcinaleadership rolewithothermisstakeholdertofacilitatediscussionandagreementonqualityand reliabilityofmarketdata.inuganda,therelationshipbetweenthevariousmarket informationsystemshasbeenformalizedintoanagriculturemarketinformationsystem WorkingGroupthatmeetstoworkthroughqualityandcollectionprotocolsaswellashost anannualeventforbroaderagmisstakeholders.eagccontinuingtoengagewithother MISactorsoffersanumberofpotentialopportunitiesforEAGCitselfaswellasitsmembers. 4

5 Availablebasicmarketinformationshouldbeconsistentacrosssourcestoensurea consistentevidencebaseandsharedunderstandingofthemarketforeffectiveadvocacy andpolicydevelopment.agreedupondataprotocolsandstandardswillalloweagcto outsourcecollectionofthisbasicdatainfutureyears;whiletheycontinuetomaintainand populateadatasetwithhistoricalinformation.finally,grainmarketbasicmarket informationsystemorganizationsareimportantvaluechainstakeholdersandshouldbe EAGCmembers,whichwillhelpbroadenthemembershipandenhancethediversityofthe stakeholdersrepresentedbyeagc.agmisorganizationsshouldbeencouragedtobecome affiliatemembersofeagc,organizedintoanagmisworkinggroup,andeagcshouldplaya leadershipandadvocacyroleforthesubsector. Theconsultationidentifiedtheneedtobroadenthemembershipbasegenerally.The majorityofmembersiscurrentlybasedinkenyaandrepresentsthelargestregionalgrain marketactors.therewasgeneralconsensusthatataminimummorediversenational membershipisneededinadditiontotargetingthemediumsizedtradersandprocessors. Thesesmallerandmediumsizedstakeholderswillneeddifferentengagementmodalitiesas theydonothavethesameaccesstooruseofinternetand .newaffiliatemembers maybetargetedtobroadenthemembershipbaseaswell.thesedifferentproductand serviceaccessandengagementmodalitieshavebeendiscussedfurtherinthesubsequent assessmentandbusinessmodelsections. Aninterestingconsideration,whichemergedfromtheconsultation,wastheRATINbrand itself.theratinbrandandinitialcontent(basicmarketdatasystem)werefirstdeveloped underaseparateusaidjfundedprojectthatpassedmanagementandownershiptoeagc. TheRATINbrandiswellknownbythemostactiveEAGCmembersandthepublicsector anddonorcommunities.newermembersandpotentialmemberswerelessfamiliarwith RATIN.Accesstothemarketinformationsystemproductsareavailableunderaseparate RATINwebsite,includedasalinkfromtheEAGCwebsite.RecentlyEAGChasmoreclosely alignedratinproductsandserviceswitheagcbyaddingitsownname:eagcjratin. Anecdotallyitwasreportedthateveninthemarketsneartheimportantbordercrossing pointswheremarketpricesandcrossjbordertradevolumesarecollected,thatratinand EAGCarenotknown.RATINiswellknownwithinresearchandtheagriculture developmentcommunity,possiblymoresothaneagc.buttheseareunlikelymembersand consistentstakeholdersasresearchandprojectsbeginandend.whileahandfulofcore membersandeagcleadersfeelastrongemotionalconnection,asreinforcedduringthe EAGCbusinessplanningretreat,therewasnoconsensusthattheRATINbrandhad sufficientvaluewiththemaineagcstakeholders,whoknoweagcaswellasratinand understandtheassociation,tobeworthcontinuedinvestment.eagchasanopportunityto transitiontheproductsandservicesunderratintobusinessfunctions(thesubsequent assessmentandbusinessmodelsectiondiscussfurtherthepublicgoodandcostcenter implicationsofthesebasicmarketinformationproducts.)theratinbrandandname couldbephasedoutordejemphasizedoverthecomingperiods.thiswouldalloweagc brandandvisibilitytobecomemorecentral,particularlyasthebasicmarketdatasystemis maintainedandusedinsupportofotherproductsandservicesandnotasadirectdriverof revenue. 5

6 CurrentEAGCMarketInformationProductsandServices Throughtheconsultationprocess,eachoftheexistingEAGCMarketInformationrelated productsandserviceswereassessedinthecontextoftheexistingoffering,implementation, andusers,alongwithcompetitivelandscapeandmarketdemand(withapriorityfocuson EAGCmembersandpotentialmembers.)Mostoftheproductsassessedexistunderthe EAGCJRATIN(RegionalAgriculturalTradeIntelligenceNetwork)brandthatincludes differentsystemsthatofferbasicmarketandtradedatawithsomelimitedintelligenceand analysis: InternalMarketsPriceDataSystem, CrossJBorderTradeDataSystem, RTVT(RealTimeVolumeTracker),and therfbsportal. AlsoconsideredwithinthisconsultationprocessweretheWeeklyRegionalGrainNews SummaryandotherinformationdisseminationtoolssuchastheEAGCGRAINmagazine.In addition,theassessmentexploredgapsinthemarketforgrainmarketintelligenceand analyticsproductsandservices. EAGCGrainMarketDataSystem 1 TheEAGCGrainMarketDataSystemcontainsthecomponentsofRATINmostassociated withthebrand: theinternalmarketpricedatasystemwhichcurrentlycollectsandreports indicativedailypricesfor12(twelve)commoditiesin27largerregionalgrain marketsinkenya,uganda,tanzania,rwanda,andburundi;and thecrossjbordertradedatasystemwhichcollectsandreportsdailyinformalcross bordertrade(icbt)volumesat6(six)importantregionalborderpoints. ThisdataisavailableforfreeattheEAGCRATINwebsite,viasubscriptiontoadaily summary,weeklyandmonthlysummary s,andviasmsquery. Throughthesesystems,EAGCmaintainsanimportanthistoricalbasicmarketdataset.Price dataacrosstheselargermarketsoftheregionareparticularlyimportantforthose stakeholdersactiveinthegrainmarketfortrendandcorrelationanalysis.activemarket actorstrackpriceandtradetrendsacrossseasonstopredictmarketmovementforthe currentseason.marketactorsusethesetrendstomakedecisionsonhowmuchandwhen toproduce,buy,sell,and/orstore.identifiedanomaliesbetweenhistoricaltrendsand currentmarketperformance(priceand/ortradeflows)triggeradditionalanalysisbythe marketactorstounderstandtheunderlyingrealitiesthatmayindicateeithertrade opportunitiesorchallenges.manylargeractorsareactiveintheirlocalmarketsonadaily 1 TheEAGCGrainMarketDataSystemisn tanewproposedbrand,ratherafunctionaldescriptionof anexistingsystemwithineagc.thisterminologyhasbeenusedbyeagcinthepastwithin proposalstodescribethebasicmarketdatasystemandfunction. 6

7 7 basisandareextremelywellinformed,whileremainingawareoftheusualcorrelation betweentheirmarketsandthelargeregionalmarketswithoutmonitoringthosemarkets withthesamedepthorfocus.smallerproducersontheotherhandareoftenonlyactivein theirvariousgeographicallynearlocalmarketsasharvestapproachesandearlyintothe storageseason.tradersandprocessorsrelyonindicativemarketpricedata,suchas providedbyeagc,butalsoavailablefromthepublicsectorvianewspapers,tocheckthe correlationbetweentheirmarketandotherlargemarketsintheregion.theymonitor thesemarketcorrelationslessfrequently,butchangesincorrelations(correlationanalysis canidentifyexpectedcorrelationsatdifferentperiodsoftheseason)canindicateshiftsin supplyanddemand,costand/oravailabilityoftransport,orbetheresultofinterventions byregionaltradepolicy,amongotherfactors.theseshiftsincorrelationsmayofferspatial arbitrageopportunitiesorindicateothermarketshiftsthatwilldirectlyimpacttheir businesses.asnotedintheintroduction,onlywheatandalimitednumberofexportj focusedpulsesoffersignificantlocalmarketcorrelationwithglobalmarkets.regional markettrendandcorrelationsanalysisaremostrelevantfortheremaininggrain commodities.theavailabilityofhistoricaldatasetsfortrendandcorrelationanalysiscan assistbetterutilizationandunderstandingofthetimelydailybasicmarketdata. ThehistoricaldatasetshavebeensharedwithFAOandWFP,andareavailablethroughthe FAOwebsiteforfreeaswell.SomeEAGCmemberswhoarenewinvestorstotheregionor maderecentregionalexpansioninvestmentsreportedtwoprimaryreasonsforjoining EAGC.Theprimaryreasonthesemembersreportedjoiningwasforaccesstothesedatasets foranalysisanduseintheirfeasibilitystudies.eagchadrecentlylimitedaccesstothe historicaldatasetsthroughtheirownplatformstomembersorforpurchase.these memberswereeitherunawareoftheavailabilityofthedatasetsforfreeonthefaostat websiteordidnotsufficientlyresearchtheoriginofthefaostatdatatounderstandthat RATINwasthesource;lackingconfidenceinFAOorigindata. 2 Thesemembersdidcitea secondreasonforjoiningeagc;thecredibilityofeagcasaknowledgeableandactivegrain organization,inpartbasedontheircollectionandmaintenanceofhistoricalmarket datasetswhichareneededbyindustry(asopposedtofamiliaritywitheagcsuccessasan advocacybody,orsomeotherproductorserviceunrelatedtomarketinformation.) TheIpsosSynovateRATINEndUserSurveyconductedinearly2012foundthatthedaily marketpricedata(alongwiththeweeklypricesummariescompiledfromthedaily information),alongwithcropupdatescompiledfrompublicsectorsources,andtheicbt datawerethemostusefulcomponentsofratin.awarenessofratinthoughdidnot directlycorrelatewithregularusageandconsultationofthemarketdatasystem.themost usedsourcesforthesametypeofinformationcamefrompersonalcontactsandotherprint media,includingnewspapers,whichpublishpublicgovernmentcollectedindicativeprices. ProducersandSupport/AdvisorystakeholdersbothreportedintheSynovatesurveyradio asanalmostequallyimportantsource.thesestakeholdersandinformationuserstendto nothavedailyaccesstotheinternetoralternativeprintmedia.theseinformationsource findings(includingtheimportanceofradiotoparticularusergroups)wasconfirmed 2 EAGCreportedthatmembershadinformedthemthattheywereawareoftheRATINdataavailable onfaostat,butpreferredtoacquireitdirectlyfromeagctoensureindependence,credibility,and theabilityforsupportfromeagcwithquestionsoradditionalclarifications.

8 throughthisconsultationprocess.inkenya,largenairobijbasedvernacularradiostations covermostofthecountry.vernacularradiointherestoftheregionisnotasconveniently centrallyaccessibleforinformationdisseminationpartnership. WhilethesameEndUserSurveyalsoconcludedasignificantopportunitytoincreasethe useofsmstoreachinformationusers,thiswasnotsupportedthroughthisconsultation process.thepreferenceforpersonalcontactsandalternativemediawasconsistently reinforcedasprovidingadditionalmarketcontextthroughconversationsanddiscussion. AlsootherSMSqueryorganizationsexistinUgandaandKenya,inparticular,andtheyall struggletodeepenusagethroughmarketinformationanddataalone.theseorganizations arefindingthemarketpricedataandsmsqueryorsubscriptiontobeacostcenterandnot anattractiverevenuesource.(thetypeofinformationcollectedandtargetusersare discussedfurtherinthefollowingsectionontheinternalmarketspricedatasystem.)also, thefarmers,whoaremostoftenthetargetusergroup,werefoundthroughthesynovate studyandconfirmedthroughthisconsultationtobejustasreachablethroughradio (particularlytrueinuganda)andoftenprefertheuseofradiooversmsalongsidetheiruse ofpersonalcontactsandmarketconnections. ThetwoexistingcomponentsoftheGrainMarketDataSystemarediscussedinmoredepth below.onecompletelynewdatapointwasidentifiedduringthefieldconsultations,which couldbeuniquetoeagcandvaluabletothegrainstakeholders.transportratesforgrain impactgreatlytheunderstandingandutilizationofthemarketpricedataavailablealready throughtheinternalmarketspricedatasystem,particularlyinrelationtospatialarbitrage opportunitiesfrommovementinmarketcorrelations.alsothereappearstobealackof historicaldatasetoranalyticalstudiesavailableintheregiontounderstandhowtransport ratesshiftovertheyear,fromyeartoyear,andhowinparticulartheycorrelatetothe shippingofotherproductsthroughthepricingandavailabilityofbackhaulrates.a2009 studyoftheregionalmaizemarketandmarketingcostsofkenya,tanzania,anduganda 3 foundthatonaverage76%oftotalmarketingcostsaredominatedbytransportcharges. Thestudyalsofoundthatwhileadditionalworkonreducingtradecostsisimportant,work onreducingdomesticmarketingcostswouldmaketrademoreprofitable.sincethe majorityofgraincontinuestobetradedasabaggedcommodity,theinfluenceofbackhaul rateopportunitiesimpactsthepotentialcostoftransportdisproportionatelyintheregion (baggedgraincanbeloadedontoaboutanyflatbedtruckwhichmayhavejusthauleda varietyofotherproducts,includingnonjagproducts.)thebusinessmodelsectionbelow discussesaddingaspecifictransportrelateddatapointtothegrainmarketdatasystem. InternalMarketsPriceDataSystem TheInternalMarketPriceDataSystemcurrentlycollectsandreportsindicativedailyprices for12(twelve)commoditiesin27largerregionalgrainmarketsinkenya,uganda, Tanzania,Rwanda,andBurundi.AccesstothisinformationisavailableviatheEAGCJRATIN website,smsquery,orviafreeonlinesubscriptiontodailyandweeklymarketsummary reportsdeliveredvia . 3 EasternAfrica:AStudyoftheRegionalMaizeMarketandMarketingCosts;WorldBank;December 31,

9 Thepricesarecollectedbypaidenumeratorswhophysicallyvisiteachmarkettoask multipleactivetradersfortheday spricerangeforthespecifiedcommodity.wholesale andretailpricesarecollectedintherespectivemarkets.therangesreportedmostlyreflect differentgradesavailablewiththeactivetraderssurveyed,butmayalsoreflectdiscountsor premiumsforcommonquantitiestraded.theenumeratorinputstheresponsesintoa smartphoneappwhichisgisenabledtoensurethemarkethasphysicallybeenvisited.the informationissenttotheeagcdataanalystwhoreviewsandcleansthedatatoensure errorsarecaught.marketaveragesareelectronicallypublisheddaily,identifiedbythecity wherethemarketislocated. Theaccuracyandreliabilityofthemarketpriceswerealmostuniversallyquestionedduring theconsultationprocessofthisassessment.uponfurtherquestioningthemostsignificant problemidentifiedwasthelackofclarityandtransparencyofwhatthereportedprices reflected.whereactivemarketactorshadsignificantactivityinaparticularregional market,theindicativepricespublishedbyeagcwerequestioned.everyoneagreedthatthe pricesareindicative,butthatthepricesreportedwerealmostalwayshigh..asanexample, thereareseverallargewholesalespotmarketsinnairobiandmanylargemillerswho purchasewholesalegrainonadailybasis.bypublishinga Nairobiwholesale price,eagc wasnotofferingsufficientlyspecificdetailsfortheconstituentsquestionedtounderstand exactlywhatthepriceindicated.also,insomecasestherangeofpricesduetoqualityor characteristicsofagivencommoditycouldbesosignificantthatastraightaverageforthe commoditywouldbemisleading;aweightedaverageortheselectionofaparticulartypeof thecommoditytotrackandreportonwouldofferabetterreflectionofthemarket.the usersoftheinformationwouldbebetterabletoutilizetheindicativepricesifmorewas knownaboutwhatthepriceactuallyindicated.specificfeedbackforimprovingtheclarity andtransparencyofthemarketpricedataisincludedinthefollowingbusinessmodel section.therearealsoadditionalproposalsofspecificdatapointstoaddtothesystem basedontheconsultationconversations. EAGCpricecollectionandreportingcovertheselectlargermarketsoftheregiononly. Thesemarketsaresufficientforthemajorityoftheactivemarketactorstotracktrendsand correlationsfordecisionmaking.smallholderfarmersandthesmalltradersthoughare mostinterestedinweeklymarketsnearesttothemgeographically,andpossiblyonlytrack thelargerdailywholesalemarketnearthemfortrendandcorrelationpurposes.there haveemergedanumberofothermarketinformationserviceorganizations,bothforjprofit andnotjforprofit,intheregion.almostalloftheseorganizationshaveidentifiedthe smallholderfarmersarethemaintargetsfortheirinformation,butalsooftensupplyngos andresearch.inugandatheseorganizationsincludeinfotrade,farmgain,pelum(utilizing communityradiofordissemination),andgrameenfoundation.inkenya,mfarmisanew venture.esokoisenteringtheregionafterbuildingoutoperationselsewhereinafrica, startinginghana.tanzaniadoesn thavethesamedepthofmisactorsastheother countriesvisitedduringtheassessment.rwandahastakenapublicsectorapproachviaits ownesokomis.someoftheseorganizationshaveextensivemarketpricecollection apparatus,ofvaryingmethodologies,tocollectthesmaller,weeklymarketpricesmost relevanttothesmallholderproducers.theorganizationsinugandahavecometogether, includingeagc,toalignmethodologies,accuracy,andreliabilityviaanagriculturemarket InformationSystemworkinggroup.Alloftheseotherorganizationscollectandreport 9

10 manycommoditiesandagriculturalproductsinadditiontograin.asreportedinthemis AssessmentforEastAfricaconductedbyFHI360inlate2013,theseconversationsalso confirmedthattheothermisactorscontinuetostruggletoidentifyasustainablebusiness modelforthecollectionanddisseminationofbasicmarketpricedata.theforjprofitmodels arehavingsomesuccessbycontinuingthebasicmarketpricedatasystemasacostcenter anddiversifyingintotransactionfacilitationasabrokerand/oragent;theirearlysuccesses arewithmoreintegratedvaluechainssuchashorticultureandcoffee,andnotspecifically withgrain.mostcontinuetoreceiveatleastpartialdonorfunding.allhavesometypeof SMSsubscriptionorqueryavailableforsmallholderfarmeraccess.Thosewithapay subscriptionmodel(mostoftenheavilysubsidizedbyotherfunding)haveverylow subscriptionrates(onereportedonly200paidsubscribers.)othersofferfreesubscriptions tosubstantiallyincreaseparticipationandaretestingadvertisingsalesmodelsor sponsorshipscombinedwithtailoredagronomicadviceinadditiontothemarketpricedata. Therearenosuccessfulcommercialexamplesyetofadvertisingandsponsorshipmodelsas theseremaininpilotphases. CrossMBorderTradeDataSystem TheCrossJBorderTradeDataSystemcollectsandreportsdailyinformalcrossbordertrade (ICBT)volumesat6(six)importantregionalborderpoints.AswiththeInternalMarket PriceDataSystem,accesstothisinformationisavailableviatheEAGCJRATINwebsiteorvia freeonlinesubscriptiontodailysummaryreportsdeliveredvia .eagcistheonly actorregularlycollectingicbtdata.somepublicsectoranddonorprogramshave conductedperiodicicbtstudies,buteagcistheonlyonecollectinganddisseminating ICBTdataonaconsistentbasis. ThecollectionprocessfortheICBTinformationissimilartothemarketpricedatainthat paidenumeratorsphysicallyvisittheborderpointsandinputthecollecteddatainagis enabledsmartphoneapplication.theicbtdatathoughiscollectedbyphysically monitoringthenumberofsacksofgraincrossingtheborderbyinformalmeans,including bicycles,carts,etc.thisinformationisonlyasubsetthoughofgraincrossingtheborders,as formaltradeisalsoquitevibrant.formaltradedataisslowtobecomeavailabletomarket stakeholdersascustomsofficerscollateandsendtheirformaltradedatatothecentral offices,whereitisultimatelysharedwithministriesofcommerceandtrade,aswellas BureausofStatistics.TheEAGCcrossJbordertradedatawasmostdiscussedbythe stakeholdersconsultedintanzaniawheretradepolicyiscitedasaprincipalobjectiveof EAGCmembership.TheEAGCICBTdataisused asevidence thattradeisoccurringandin whatdirectiontosupportconversationswithotherindustryandwiththepublicsector.in Uganda,theavailabilityoftheICBTinformationwasnotmentionedwithoutprompting. Mostagreedthatitisoneimportantdatapointastheyprioritizetradefacilitationand networking,particularlyfocusedonthenearbykenyanmarket.addingtheformaltrade volumeswiththesametimelinessofreportingwouldgreatlyincreasetherelevanceand usefulnessofthecrossjbordertradedatasystem.anapproachtopilotthisisproposedin thesubsequentbusinessmodelsection. WeeklyRegionalGrainNewsSummary EAGCsendsmembersandkeystakeholdersaweeklyregionalgrainnewsheadline summary .eagctracksvariedmedia,withanemphasisonnewspapers,acrossthe 10

11 11 regionandcompilesaweekly summarywithheadlinesrelatedtothegrainindustry andrelatedservices(includingtransportandagfinance),mostoftenwithlinkstothefull articles.duringtheconsultationconversations,thisweeklyheadlinesummarywasthe productmostfrequentlycitedfirstasofferingvaluefromeagc.somecommentswere offeredregardingthepotentialtoincreasevaluebyaddingadditionalanalytical commentary.thecostbenefitofeagctakingthatonwasn tclearthroughthe conversations.buteveryonewith whoreceivedthenewsheadlinesummaryreported readingthemregularly.itisviewedasauniversaltimeandresourcesaver.therewerea fewcommentsthatthisproductalsoreflectseagc sunderstandingofregionalgrain marketsthroughtheirabilitytoidentifynewsbothdirectlyandindirectlyofinteresttothe industry.itwasduringtheseconversationsthatmostconsultedreportedpreferring asthebestinformationaccessmodality,ratherthanrequiringthemtovisitthewebsite regularly. EACRegionalFoodBalanceSheets(RFBS) TheEACSecretariatalongwithdiversefoodsecuritystakeholdersdevelopedtheEAC RegionalFoodBalanceSheet(RFBS).EAGCisacriticalstakeholder;organizingand contributingprivatesectorstockdata,providingfacilitationforthenationalfoodbalance SheetCommittees(NFBSC)inKenya,Tanzania,Uganda,Rwanda,andBurundi,and publicationoftherfbs.theeagcjratinwebsitehoststheelectronicrfbsportalfordata input,aggregation,anddissemination.therfbsisintendedtogivereliableinformation aboutfoodavailabilityin5(five)countriesfor6(six)staplegrainsforthecurrentperiod(in additiontothestaplegrains,therearenownonjgrainagriculturalproductswhicharealso reportedon.) WhiletheEACRFBSwaslaunchedin2010,theRFBSmanualwasdevelopedinJune2013 outliningthetemplate,inputs,andmethodologyforputtingtogetherthemonthlyrfbs. ThedifferentdatapointsrepresentedintheRFBSarecollectedbymethodologiesspecificto eachdatapoint.thesearevariedacrossthedatapointsandincludesamplingand estimationapproaches,aswellasactualsbasedonvoluntaryreporting.specifically,the privatesectorandreliefagencyquantitiesinstockarecurrentlyreportedonanactuals basedonvoluntaryreportingbasis.fromafoodsecurityperspective,itmightbe appropriatetobeabletophysicallychecktheaccuracyandavailabilityofthosephysical stocks.butanactualsapproachinsteadofanappropriatesamplingandestimation approachmaydramaticallyunderestimatetheprivatestocksheldbyactorsincluding tradersandprocessorsinthesmallerandmediumsizemarkets. 4 Underreportingisalsoa riskwhilebuildingbuyjinandencouragingreportingparticipationintheearlyperiodof RFBSdevelopment.ThisisdiscussedfurtherintheBusinessModelsectionbelow. Feedbackfromsomecontributorsdirectlyrelatestothesubsequentconsiderationofthe RealTimeVolumeTracker(RTVT);initialpresentationoftheRFBScollectionandreporting ofprivatestockslistedvolumesidentifiedbyprivatecontributor.whilethoseactiveinthe 4 Withabaggedgraintrade,graincanbeheldinmanydifferentflatstoragestructures.Thisreduces thebarriertoentryformarketactorstostoregrainoneyearandnotasubsequentseason.the literaturereviewandtheconsultationswereunabletoquantifythepotentialpercentageofgrain storedinthissizeofflexibleflatwarehousing.understandingthevolumestoredoffjfarminflexible flatstoragewillbeimportantinrefiningtheprivatestockreportingmethodology.

12 tradealwayswanttoknowwhatstocksarebeingheld,theymostoftenconsidertheirown marketpositiontobeconfidential.onlyafterassuringcontributorsthatstockreporting wouldbeaggregatedandthenreportedasananonymouswholedidparticipationincrease andtheactivereportingpartiesgaincomfort. TheRFBScontinuestodevelopandhasnotyetbeenfullyimplemented.Publicationofthe RFBSoutsideoftheRFBSCisnotyetconsistentlyavailable.ThemajorityofEAGCmembers consultedwereunawareoftherfbsoutput,butwerefamiliarwitheagcworkingtocollect dataandworkwiththeothercriticalstakeholdersincludingthepublicsectortocontinueto developandimprovetherfbs. TheRFBShasaclearadvocacyandpolicypurposeindeterminingadequacyoffoodsupplies withinindividualcountriesandwithintheregionforstakeholderstomakestrategic decisionsformanagingfoodsecurity.thisinformationalsoprovidesvitalinsightinto marketdynamicsforthoseactiveingraintradeandprocessing;whichincludesmostofthe EAGCmembers.Theconsultationconversationsassuredalmostunanimousconsentthat therfbsmethodologyandimplementationcanuseimprovementbuttherfbsisworththe timeandinvestmenttogetrightforeagcmembershipandtosupportotherproductsand services.itiscriticalthoughthattheinformationflowsbothways,withcontributors receivingtheaggregateddataandareconsultedwhenqualityandimprovementare considered. RealTimeVolumeTracker TheRealTimeVolumeTracker(undertheRATINbrandaswell)isanelectronicplatform forthevoluntaryreportingofrealjtimecommoditystocksbywarehouseoperators.the objectivesincludeprovidingrelevantandcrediblemarketintelligenceregardingstocks,and facilitatingtransactionsbyassistingindustrytolocateavailablecommodityinventory (alternativelyfacilitatemarketaccessbyprovidingvisibilityofstockstopotential purchasers.)thertvtdataisavailableviawebsiteorafreeonlinesubscriptiontoadaily summary.thertvtwaspilotedwith19warehouses,butonlyafewcontinueto submitregularinformation.theseremainingactivewarehousesarelargelyseedproducers andotherfarmergroups.thertvtsystemconsistsofadigitalsystemforwarehouse managerstodirectlyinputtheirdataintotheelectronicplatform,minimizingthestaff oversightandinteractionnecessary. Thereisasegmentofthemarketwhomaybeholdinggrainstockswithaseriousneedto findmarketlinkagesand/orbuyers.butthisdoesnotadequatelydescribethemarketat large.formostofthemarket,theyreportadesiretoknowthepositionofothers,without necessarilywantingtosharetheirownpositions.tradersactiveinthemarketwatch purchaseandsalepatternsofothermarketactorstoassesswhetherthemarketgenerallyis goinglongorstayingshort.thisexplainswhyfarmergroupsandseedproducersaremost representedamongthosewarehousesstillreportingaftertheendofthepilotphase. Farmergroupsarenotinthemarketeverydayandprioritizetransactionfacilitationand marketaccessaspectsofreportingtheirgrainwarehousestocks.theywantbuyersto knowtheyhavegrainforsale.seedcompaniesalsoholdstocksspecificallylookingfor buyers,thoughthisismoreseasonal.theunderlyingobjectiveistransactionfacilitation andmarketaccess.traders,processors,brokers,andagentswillonlyseekoutthe 12

13 informationonwarehousestocksamongthesemoreactiveusersinaveryshortmarket, whenthefarmergroupsarelikelytohavealternativebuyersactivelyseekinggrainintheir areas.inamarketwithsufficientsupply,includingtheharvestperiod,tradersand processorsaremorelikelytofindasmuchvolumeasneededcomingtothemorthrough theirusualmarketactivity,andareunlikelytogooutoftheirwaylookingforgrainwithless convenience.theincentivesforbroadscalingofrtvtarenotstronggiventhatregularand sustainedtransactionfacilitationtooccurthroughrtvtisunlikely.utilizationofrtvtfor identificationofgrainvolumesresultingintransactions(astatedfundamentalpurpose)will varywidelyoverthecourseofanyseasonandyearbasedonmarketsupplyanddemand. Feedbackfromtheconsultationprocessagreedthatthereisarelativelysmallmarketfor reportingparticipantsofrtvt,butthattheirobjectivesforparticipationmaybemet throughalternativeproductsandtools,includingadditionalopportunitiesfornetworking andbusinessconnectionsandmarketaccesscapacitybuilding.improvingtherfbsstock methodologyandreporting,whichisaggregatedandnotindividuallyidentifiable,willserve thertvtstatedobjectiveofimprovedmarketintelligenceforstakeholders.assuch,itis recommendedthateagcdiscontinuertvtandfocusonalternativeproductsandservices tomeettheseimportantcoreobjectives. EAGCGRAINmagazine MarketingIntelligenceandAnalytics. EAGCproducesanEAGCGRAINMagazineinadigitalform,thoughitwaspreviously publishedasahardcopyglossymagazine.onlybriefmentionofitismadeinthissection,as thecontentismainlyfocusedonupdatingmembershipandstakeholdersoneagcprograms andactivities.itisnotcurrentlyasubstantivetradepublicationforthegrainindustry.as suchthisisnotarecommendationtodiscontinuethepublicationitself,asthatismorean EAGCcommunicationsstrategydecision.Itismentionedhereasitisthemaininformation disseminationtooloutsideofthebasicmarketdataproductsandservicesalready discussed. Theconsultationswithstakeholdersdidnotidentifyanyregionallyrelevant,substantive grainfocusedpublication.asnotedintheprevioussections,graincommoditytradeinthe regionislargelyuncorrelatedwithglobalmarkets,withtheexceptionofwheat,whichis globallycorrelatedduetosignificantimports,andsomepulseswhichareexportedfor internationalconsumption.thosestakeholdersactiveinwheatandtherelevantpulses indicatedthepurchaseofglobalwheatpublicationsandspecificindianpublicationsfocused onthepulseindustries.thecerealgrowersassociation(cga)didhavearegularhardcopy magazinepublicationinthepast,buttheyalsostruggledtohavedeepandmeaningful marketandtradecontent. FEWSNET squarterlyfoodsecuritybulletinwascitedasoneavailablesourceforregional qualitymarketintelligenceandanalytics.whilethereisafoodsecuritystakeholderfocus, tradersawareofthepublicationconsiderthepublicationhighqualityintermsofrelevant thoughtfulintelligenceandanalytics.fewsnetreportedthateagcorganizedtrader meetingswerethemostfrequentmeansofexpandingtheir(free)subscriptionbaseamong thatstakeholdergroup. 13

14 Alsoavailableisaprivateweeklyregionalgrainmarketanalyticalupdatefromaprivate companyoutofsouthafrica. 5 Thelargestregionalmarketactors(almostallareEAGC members),includingtradersandprocessors,subscribeat$200/monthfortheweekly bulletin.asampleoftheweeklybulletinproducedisincludedintheannex.themarket sizeforsuchabulletinisprobablyrestrictedtothelargestmarketactors.direct competitiontocapturemarketsharefromthiscompetingservicewasn tconsidereda strongoption.butwithsignificantregionaltradeandmarketcorrelation,thereexistsan interestingopportunityforasubstantiveregionalgraintradepublicationwhichcould providesomesimilaranalyticsbutinadifferentproductformatforawidercustomer segment.thisisfurtheroutlinedinthefollowingbusinessmodelsection. 5 CommodityInsightAfrica; 14

15 SummaryofKeyFindings AfewoverarchingthemesemergedfromtheassessmentofthecurrentEAGCmarket informationsystemproductsandservicesandbyidentifyingopportunitiesfornew productsandservicesbasedonmarketgaps.eagchasafoundationalrolewithinthe collection,maintenance,anddisseminationofbasicmarketinformationwithintheregion. TheyshouldcontinuetoplayaleadingrolewithotherMISstakeholdersandorganizations inestablishingthemarketinformationprotocolsandqualitystandards.whilethere remainsagapwithpublicallyavailablebasicmarketdata,eagcshouldcontinuetocollect, manage,anddisseminatethisinformation;leveragingopportunitiestooutsourcedata collectionasotherstakeholdersimprovetheirdatareliabilityandquality.therearelimited outsourcingopportunitiesatpresentwhiletheagmissubsectorevolves,thoughugandais likelytopresentthefirstmarketwhereoutsourcingdatacollectiontopartners. Evenwiththatrecommendationthough,itisclearthatbasicmarketdataandinformation remainslargelyapublicgoodandisnotdirectlymonetizableforeagc.theopportunityfor EAGCistoretainthebasicgrainmarketinformationsystemasafoundationforotherEAGC productsandservices,particularlyadvocacyandpolicydevelopment,anddeveloptheinj housecapacitytodevelopandcuratemarketintelligenceandanalytics.specificproducts andservicesareoutlinedfurtherinthesubsequentsection.thisinjhousecapacitycanbe directlymonetizedasdescribedinthenextbusinessmodelsection,butitshouldalsobe abletosupporttherepackagingofthedevelopedcontentforeagceventsandconferences, aswellasalignwithadvocacyobjectives. Asdiscussedintheintroductionsectionoftheassessment,theexistingRATINbrandhasthe mostvaluewithacorecadreofactiveandlongtimeeagcmembersaswellaswithdonors andthedevelopmentcommunity.theconsultationprocesshighlightedanopportunityto phaseoutordejemphasizetheratinbrandasthemostcloselyassociatedproductsare likelytoremaincostcenters.thoseproductsthemselvesshouldcontinuetobeinvestedin, asoutlinedbelow,buttransitioningfromtheratinbrandtodefiningthemasaneagc functionoffersanopportunityfortheeagcbrandandnametobeattheforefrontwithnew members,stakeholders,andleadingtheproposednewgraintradepublication.thereis likelylimiteddownsidetomaintainingtheexistingratinbrandassociatedwiththegrain MarketDataSystemandRFBS,buttheconsultationprocessidentifiedlittletonobenefit fromcontinuingtoinvestinfurtherdevelopmentoftheratinbrandandname, particularlywhileexpandingutilizationofthisdatabyeagcitselftosupportthetransition todevelopinginjhousedevelopmentandcuratingofmarketintelligenceandanalyticsas contentfortheotherproposedproductsandservices. Theconsultationinterviewsconsistentlyconfirmedthatadvocacyandbusinessconnections weretheprincipalvalueobjectivesofeagcmembership.theeagcmarketinformation systemssupportthoseobjectivesandshouldnotbeconsideredastandjaloneactivity.the followingsectionpresentsfoureagcproductsforfurtherdevelopmentandinvestmentina businessmodelframework,buildingdirectlyfromtheassessmentconducted. 15

16 BusinessModel:ProposedEAGCMarketInformationProducts andservices TheconsultationprocessidentifiedwhichoftheexistingEAGCproductsandservicesoffer value,whereimprovementsormodificationsarerecommended,andnewproductsthat couldaddvaluetomembersandstakeholders.thefollowingutilizesabusinessmodel approachtobrieflydescribeeachproposedproductand/orservice(someexistingwith improvementsorrefinement,othersnew);definethevalueproposition;outlinethekey activitiesrequiredtodeliverthevalue;characterizethecustomersegmentsand relationshipsandkeypartnershipsusingauser,payer,andinfluencercategorizationwhere usersmaynotbethemainrevenue/fundingsource,andfinallyelucidaterevenuestreams andcoststructure. Throughouttheproposedproductsandservicesbelow,smalladvisorycommitteesare proposedasacoreactivityandprocessforeagc.theconsultationprocesshighlightedthat ofteneagcmembersperceivedeagctoneeddata,information,andsupportfromthem withoutfeelingsignificantandongoinginteractionbackfromeagc.theuseofsmall structuredadvisorycommitteeswhichmeetinpersonatthebeginningandmostlyare consultedbyconferencecalland/orothervirtualmechanismsafter,offerthree opportunitiesforeagc:1)anopportunitytolistentomembers perspectivesintermsof value,design,anddeliveryofproductsandservicestobetterrespondtoparticularmember needs;2)facilitatefurtherconnectionsbetweenthemembersparticipatinginthesmall groups;and3)buildbuyjinforeagcactivitieswhileengagingthemembersofthesmall groupsaseagcchampionswithinthebroadermembershipandgrainstakeholders. EAGCGrainMarketDataSystem 6 KeyProductsandServices Maintaining,improving,andexpanding,butwithfocus,theGrainMarketDataSystemis importantforregionalgrainindustrystakeholders,includingeagcmembers,and continuingtosupporteagccredibilityasthepremiergrainvaluechainorganizationinthe region,andothereagcproductsandservices(includinganeutralpartydatasetforusein advocacywiththepublicsector.)thebasicmarketdata,whichcurrentlyincludesdaily wholesalecommoditypricesandicbt,arerequiredasfoundationalinputs,amongothers, foreagctomoveintodevelopinginjhouse,aswellascuratingexternallyproduced,market intelligenceandanalytics. TheEAGCGrainMarketDataSystemshouldcontinueto: includedailymarketpricedatafortheexistingportfolioof12(twelve)commodities in27largerregionalgrainmarketsinkenya,uganda,tanzania,rwanda,and 6 TheEAGCGrainMarketDataSystemisn tanewproposedbrand,ratherafunctionaldescriptionof anexistingsystemwithineagc.thisterminologyhasbeenusedbyeagcinthepastwithin proposalstodescribethebasicmarketdatasystemandfunction. 16

17 Burundi;newregionalmarketsshouldbeidentifiedandaddedasEAGCactively movestobuildmembershipandotherproductsandservicesinnewregional countries(zambia,malawi,southsudan,ethiopia,etc.),and includeinformalcrossjbordertradevolumesatthe6(six)majorbordercrossing points;newcriticalregionalborderpointsshouldbeidentifiedandaddedaseagc activelymovestobuildmembershipandotherproductsandservicesinnew regionalcountries(zambia,malawi,southsudan,ethiopia,etc.) ThesystemshouldmaintainahighJqualityandeasilyaccessiblehistoricaldatasetofthe collectedmarketinformation.themostrecent2weeksofinformationshouldbeavailable ontheeagcwebsite.daily summarieswillcontinuetobeavailablewiththemost recentdailyinformation.thesmsbasicmarketdataquerydisseminationshouldbe discontinued.newdisseminationshouldbedevelopedthroughpartnershipsincluding radioandothermedia. Newdatatobecollectedandaddedtothesysteminclude: transportratesforatleast6keytransportrouteswithintheregion. o Specificroutesandratestobedeterminedafteraseparatetransportrate analysis(describedinthesubsequentsectiondescribingonejtimemarket analysisandanalyticalreports)andconsultationprocess) o Rateslikelytobemonitoredasperton/kmforutilizationof20MTtrucks betweenspecificpointsimportanttotheusualflowofgrain dailymarkettradevolumedata(forthealreadyprioritizedcommodities)atlarge regionalmarketswheredailypricesarealreadycollected o informationwouldbecollectedfromacooperativerelationshipwiththe localmarketauthoritieswhichalreadycollectandmanagethisinformation fortheirownreportingrequirements formalcrossjbordertradevolumesfrombordercrossingpointswhereinformal volumesarealreadycollectedthroughacooperativerelationshipwithcustoms officials Historicaldatasetsincludingthecollecteddatawillbemaintained.Accesstothehistorical datasetwillbeavailableforonejoffpurchaseinadigitalformatviathewebsite. ValueProposition Basicmarketdataincludingallofthemarketprice,crossbordertradevolumes,andthe proposedadditionsoftransportratesandmarketvolumesarelargelypublicgoods.eagc isfillinganimportantvacuumwithintheregionbycollectinganddisseminatinghigh quality,reliablebasicmarketdataforkeygrainindustrystakeholders.eagcdataisrelied uponbypublicsectorandcivilsociety.whileathinmarketexistsforthepurchaseofbasic marketdataanddatasets,thetradejoffisthesignificantadvocacygainsfrompublicaccess tothedata.broadfreeaccesstothehighqualityeagcbasicmarketdataallowsfora commonunderstandingandfoundationofthemarketforproductiveadvocacyandpolicy developmentamongstakeholders. TheEAGCGrainMarketDataSystemoffersthreedistinctpointsofvalueforEAGCandits members: 17

18 Collectionandmaintenanceofhistoricaldatasetsanddailymarketinformationfor trendanalysisandcorrelationanalysis. NeutrallycollecteddataforEAGCadvocacyandpolicycredibility. ReliabledataforEAGCdevelopedmarketintelligenceandanalyticalproducts. KeyActivities Improveclarityandtransparencyofdailymarketpricescollectedbyidentifyingthe exactmarketandmethodologyofdatacollectionandcommunicatingthoseto stakeholdersclearly o Forexample,inTanzaniawherethevariationissignificantbetweenhigh andlowriceprices,selectoneortworiceoriginsorgrades(basedon marketsharebytotalvolumestraded)whichrepresentdifferentprice pointswithinthevariationandcollectandreportonthosebyspecific market. o Asanothercase,therearemultiplephysicalgrainmarketsinNairobi,the exactphysicalmarketwherethenairobimaizemarketpriceiscollected mustbecitedforclarity. EliminatetheSMSqueryoptionwhichhaslimitedutilization,significant competitioninsomeregionalmarkets,andnosuccessfulrevenuemodel Fortargetstakeholdersanddatauserswhodonothaveinternetor access, addalternativedataaccessmechanismsanddisseminationbypartneringwith vernacularradioandnewspapers,asappropriate Lockhistoricdatasetsforpremiumpay,oneJtimedownload;reJnegotiateaccessto updateswithfaoandwfp.(seefollowingsectiononcustomersegmentand relationshipsandcriticalpartnershipsforadditionaldiscussion.) Pilotthecollectionanddisseminationoftransportratesforatleast6keytransport routeswithintheregion(tobedeterminedafteraspecifictransportrateanalysis (describedinthesubsequentsectiondescribingonejtimemarketanalysisand analyticalreports)) o Aconsultationprocesswillbeusedforthepilot.Asmall(3J5member) focusedstakeholderteam,principallydrawnfromactivememberswillmeet toagreeuponthepilotstrategyandplan,andwillbeprovidedperiodic updatesandopportunitytoreviewthepilotexperiencepriortosubsequent rolljout.thisconsultationprocesswillengagemembers,incorporateuser inputandadvice,andbuildbuyjin. PilotcollectionanddisseminationofLocalMarketAuthorityvolumetradeddatain atleast6(six)collaborativeregionalmarketswheredailypricesarealready collected PilottimelycollectionandpublishingofformalcrossJbordertradevolumeswithat least1(one)collaborativebordercrossingpoint o acategorizationwouldneedtobeagreeduponasitwouldbeconsidered preliminaryandunofficialifcollecteddirectlyfromcustomsofficialsfrom informationtheyalreadycollectandreportwithintheirownstructure 18

19 CustomerSegmentandRelationshipsandCriticalPartnerships Asnoted,theEAGCGrainMarketDataSystemprovidesbasicmarketinformationtothe variedregionalgrainindustrystakeholders.inmostdevelopedmarkets,basicmarket informationisapublicgoodwhilemarketintelligenceandanalyticsareprivategoods.even inthedevelopingmarketsofeasternafrica,donorshavefundedthedevelopmentof systemstocollectanddisseminatebasicmarketinformationinlightofthepublicsector basicmarketinformationgap.thegrainmarketdatasystemwillmostlyremainacost centerforeagc.thereareonlylimitedmonetizationopportunitiesfromthecomponents ofthegrainmarketdatasystemitself.assuch,thedonorcommunitywillremainthe payersonbehalfofthevariedindustrystakeholderusersfortheforeseeablefuture.asa bestpracticeprocess,eagcshouldidentifycriticalinfluencerswhocanassistthemin approachingdonorsforcontinuedfundingsupport. Customersegmentcharacterization AcademicResearch Users;Payers o Academicresearchanddevelopmentrelatedinquiriesmakeupthemajority ofwebsitemarketinformationusagetodate.theseusersarelikelytoalso bewillingpayersofonejtimedatapackagepurchases.thewebsitewill continuetobetheprincipalaccessmediumfortheseusers.thenumberof purchasesislikelytoremainlimitedduetotheavailabilityoftheolder dataset(asnewinformationisadded)throughfaoandtheoveralllimited sizeofthismarket.totheextentthatfaodoescontributetocostrecovery (seefaonotesbelow),theeaseofaccessingtheinformationand manipulationwillcontinuetobringinsmallnumbersofsales. NGOs,donorfundedprograms,andcivilsociety;Foodreliefinstitutionssuchas WFP Users;Influencers o NGOscanassistindisseminatingthebasicmarketdatabeyondEAGC s directreachwheretheyhavenetworksofsmallholdergrainfarmers, additionalpotentialusers.theseusersarealsodirectinfluencersonthe donorpayerandabletopromotecontinuedfinancialsupportforeagc s GrainMarketDataSystembydonorswithintheirrealmofinfluence. Grainmarketactorsincludingtraders,processors,producers Users;Payers o TheprivatesectorwillcontinuetorelyupontheEAGCbasicmarketdataas reliableindicativemarketpricestousefortrendandcorrelationanalysis. Mostexistingactorshavetheirownrecordsonthemarketswheretheyare mostactive.butprivatesectormakingnewregionalinvestmentsor enteringthemarketforthefirsttimeshouldrepresentasmallpayerbase forthepurchaseofhistoricaldatasetpackages. Supportinginstitutionsandservicestothegrainindustryincludinginsurance,and finance;user PublicSector User;Influencer FAO User;Influencer o FAOisunlikelytopaysubscriptionsorforaccess.Theyalreadypossessthe historicaldatasets.faoshouldcontributetothecostofenumeratorsand systemmaintenanceforcontinuedupdatesoftheirdatasets.thestructure 19

20 ofanyfinancialsupportshouldbestructuredtoreflecttheirfinancial mechanismrestrictions. DonorsJPayer ItiscriticalthatEAGCfocusonthesegmentsandrelationshipstheycanbestserve,and partnerwhereothershaveestablishednetworksorprioritized.eagcaffiliatememberscan bepartnersforensuringaccesstotheirconstituents,whichwouldincludethethousandsof smallholderfarmers.affiliatemembers,bothexistingandpotential,whohavestrong networksandplatformsforcommunicatingwiththebroaderindustry,including smallholderfarmers,shouldbepartnersthroughwhichaccesstoeagcgeneratedmarket datacanbefacilitated.theseincludecurrentaffiliatememberssuchasthecerealgrowers AssociationinKenya,andPELUM,anNGOworkingwithvernacularradio,inUganda.In additiontotheexistingmembers,othermisorganizationsandcompaniescouldbecourted asmemberswheretheyareprincipallytargetingsmallholderfarmersforinformation,such asesoko,mfarm,farmgain,infotrade,andthelike.othercriticalpartnershipsinclude identificationofradioandotherdailymediathroughwhichthemarketdatacanbe disseminatedmorebroadlytothoselackingaccesstotheinternetor ;whichcanalso assistwithbroadeningeagcbrandrecognitionandvisibility. RevenueStreams 7 Asdiscussed,theEAGCGrainMarketDataSystemwillmostlyremainacostcenter.Limited revenuemaybeobtainedthroughthesaleofhistoricaldatapackageswhichareeasytouse andacquireviatheeagcwebsite.theconsultationprocessdidnotindicatethatrealistic EAGCratescanbeashighasindevelopedcommoditymarkets.$500averagefora completehistoricaldatasetpercommodity(with6j10yearsofdata)percountryrepresents anaccuratemarketassessment.theimportantconsiderationinsettingthepriceistomake pricingstraightforwardandclear,withlargechunksofdataavailableforasingleprice withoutthecustomerhavingtopaymultiplesmalleramountsbetweenmanypotential variablesandpackages.evenwiththis,themarketforthesedatapackagesislimitedto researchandthefewprivatesectormakingsignificantnewregionalinvestmentsor enteringthemarketforthefirsttime,needinghistoricaldatasetsforfeasibilityandfinancial analysis.thismarketopportunityisestimatedtorepresentonlyabout5%ofthetotalcost ofthegrainmarketdatasystemandassuchshouldnotbeoverlyprioritized.donor fundingisexpectedtocoverthecostofthesystemandtimeandfocusshouldprincipallybe focusedonuserswhoareinfluencersandcanassisteagcinsecuringthepositivevisibility anddonorfundingsupport. CostStructure 8 Thedataenumeratorsdominatethecoststructure.Thestaffneededincludepartofa seniormanager stimeandthemajorityofadataspecialist stime.thestaffalsofocus significanttimeonthesubsequentproposedproduct,alsoacostcenter,therfbs.thecosts inannex6arelargelydrawnfromeagc sownexperience,includingrecentproposalsand costestimates.itisassumedherethateagcisusingonlytheirownenumeratorsforeach locationofdatacollection(market,borderpoint,transportroute.)aseagcidentifieshigh 7 SeeAnnex6forrevenueandcostestimates. 8 SeeAnnex6forrevenueandcostestimates. 20

21 qualitybasicmarketdatapartnersforoutsourcingofdatacollection,theenumeratorcost canbereduced.thisislikelyapossibilityinugandawithinanotheryearortwo. EACRegionalFoodBalanceSheets KeyProductsandServices TheEACRFBSisamonthlysnapshotoffoodavailabilitybycountryintheregion;reflecting production,consumption,stocks,andlosses.eagcshouldcontinuetoplayafacilitating roleforthedevelopmentandimplementationoftherfbs,andshouldcontinuetohostthe RFBSplatform.EAGCshouldcontinuetoleadthecollectionandmanagementofprivate sectorcontributionstotherfbs. TheRFBSshouldbepublishedmonthlyandmadeavailabletoallgrainindustry stakeholdersviatheeagcwebsiteandviaafree subscriptionlist.therfbs informationwillprovidedataforeagcdevelopedmarketintelligenceandanalytical products,toincludecontentforaneagcgraintradepublicationandpresentedatrelevant events. ValueProposition FacilitationandleadershipoftheEACRFBSinadditiontocoordinatingtheprivatesector datacontributionsiscriticalforeagccredibilityandpositioningwithkeypublicsector institutions.allstakeholders,includingcivilsocietyandfoodreliefagenciesaswellas potentiallycompetinginterestswithinthegrainindustry,needtohaveequitableaccessto reliableandtransparentrfbsdatatofacilitateeagcadvocacyobjectivesandpolicy developmentwithintheregion.becauseoftheneedtoparticipateinapublicallyavailable RFBSwiththepublicsectorstakeholders,EAGCwillnotbeabletodirectlymonetizeaccess totherfbstomembersandothercustomers. Atimely,accurate,andreliableRFBSisimportantmarketintelligenceforactiveactorsin thegrainindustry,includingeagcmembers.therfbswillprovideimportantcontentand datafortheproposedneweagcregionalgraintradepublication. KeyActivities ThecurrentmethodologyforRFBShassignificantopportunitiesforimprovement,aswell astheeagcapproachforengagingmembershipwiththeinformation. Improvethemethodologyforprivatesectorstockestimationandreportingtoan appropriatesamplingmethodologyinsteadofan actualsviavoluntaryreporting approachduetothelimitedreachofeagcmembershipandtheneedtobetter reflectactualstocks. o Duringtheconsultationandthroughreviewoftheavailablevaluechain literature,itwasn tclearthesegmentationofwheregrainisstored, particularlyinthefirst4j5monthsfollowingharvest;beforecapital constraintsforcethosespeculatorstosellonwardintothemarket.there appearstobeinsomemarkets,particularlyinthosecropsdestinedfor domesticandregionalmarkets,apossibilitythatmediumsizetradersmay enterandexitthemarketinthisperiod(utilizingflexibleflatstorage) betweenthesmaller,firstaggregationtraderspurchasingfromfarmersand 21

22 thelargerprocessors.withthecurrent actualsviavoluntaryreporting approachtherewasuncertaintyregardingwhatpercentageoftheprivately heldstockswerenotbeingcapturedbetweentheonjfarmstockestimates andthereportingbythelargestindustrystakeholders.insomecases,ngo activitiesmaypromotefarmergroupstorageacrossgeographiesthatchange theoverallwarehousinglandscapeforaseasonortwo,resultinginfurther distortionofthestockreporting.thiswasmentionedasaparticularissuein recentseasonswithtanzanianrice. Engageasmall,focusedadvisorycommitteeofmembersrepresentingdiverse industryactorstoreviewandadviseonrefinementofrfbsmethodologyand implementationtobestreflectmemberalignmentandvalue. o Whilelargerindustryactors,includingEAGCmembers,areactivewithinthe nationalrfbscommittee,eagcshouldhaveadirectconversationwitha morediversegroupofmembersthroughanadvisorycommitteetodiscuss themostusefulformatforsharingrfbsinformationwiththem,refinement oftherfbsmethodologyforbettercapturingstocks,themostdynamic componentoftherfbs,andtoprovideeagcaplatformforbuilding additionalbuyjinwithmemberswhocanassistthemwithgenerating additionalparticipationandsupport.thisadvisorygroupcanassisteagcto betterengagemembersanddeveloptwowayinformationflow. Activelycommunicateandpushapublished,monthlyRFBSouttothebroad membership. o Everymonth,EAGCshouldcapturetheRFBSpositioninapublished summarysheetandensurethatitisavailableandaccessibletothe membership. CustomerSegmentandRelationshipsandCriticalPartnerships Asnotedabove,theprincipalvaluepropositionistheavailabilityofareliableand transparentrfbstothebroadspectrumofgrainindustryandfoodsecuritystakeholdersto facilitateproductiveeagcadvocacyandmorepredictablepolicydevelopmentand implementation.duetothis,rfbswillremainanimportantcostcenterforeagc.mostof thecustomerswillbeusersandinfluencers.donorswillcontinuetoofferastrong opportunityaspayers,buteagcmustengagealloftheusersasinfluencerstofacilitate continuedfinancialsupportfromthedonorcommunity. Customersegmentcharacterization PublicSector User;Influencer OthercontributingstakeholdersinEACRFBS(includingfoodreliefagencies) User; Influencer PrivateSector,includingEAGCmembershipJUser EAGCadvocacyandmarketintelligenceteamsJUser Donors User;Payer NGOsandcivilsocietyspecificallyinterestedinfoodsecurityandrelatedpolicies User;Influencer EAGC skeyfacilitationandplatformhostingroleunpinstheimportanceofpartnershipsin thesuccessofrfbs.thenationalrfbscommitteesarecomprisedoftheprincipalpartners, thougheagcshouldcontinuetounderstandandengageotherpotentialinfluencers. 22

23 WorkingwithaninternalEAGCadvisorycommitteewillassistwithdevelopingRFBS championstoassistwithvisibility,credibility,andutilization. RevenueStreams 9 AswiththeEAGCGrainMarketDataSystem,donorfundingisanticipatedtocontinuetobe thesourceoffundsforrfbs.indevelopedmarkets,therfbsismostoftenpublishedby thepublicsector,whileprivatesectormarketintelligencefirmsinterprettherfbsdataand forecastaddinginanalysisofotherdatapoints.becausethepublicsectorisnotina positiontocoordinateandpublishaconsistentrfbs,thereissignificantvalueforthe privatesectorinthedevelopmentandimplementationofhighquality,consistentrfbs. Thustheredoesseemtobesomeappetitefromthelargerprivatesectortofinancially supportinsomeway.butcorporatesponsorshipsarenotpossiblebecausetherfbs remainsaneacproductandforpolicypurposes,mustremainneutralfromdirect stakeholderfinancialsupport.also,thequalityandconsistencywouldneedtobeproven beforecorporatesponsorshipswouldactuallybepossible.utilizationofuserstakeholders andthepublicsectorasinfluencerswiththedonorcommunitywillbecriticaltosecuring theneededgrantfinancialsupport.eagcshouldleverageinfluencersasmuchaspossible toshowbroadsupportandbuyjintotheeagcleadership,contribution,andfacilitationof RFBS. CostStructure 10 Inadditiontobasicstaffcoststomanageandimplement,theprincipalcostcomponentis theongoingfacilitationofthenrfbscmeetings;twopercountryperyearareassumed. EAGCRegionalGrainTradePublication KeyProductsandServices Aspresentedinthepreviousassessmentsection,theregionlacksasubstantivegrain industrytradepublication.theproposedneweagcregionalgraintradepublication(6 editions/year)shouldhavesubstantivecontenttoincludebothregionalandcountry specificmarketintelligenceandanalytics,policyupdatesandanalysis,andindustrynews. InadditiontotheRegionalGrainTradePublication,EAGCshouldcontinuetoofferaweekly regionalgrainnewsheadlinesummaryvia andthewebsitetoitsmembers.thenews headlinesummarywillalsoassistthepublicationcontentmanagerofthepublicationto identifykeytrendsandrelevantnewstocoverwithmoredepthintheeagcregionalgrain TradePublication. ThePublicationwillbeavailableinadigitalformattothosememberswhoprefer and havereliableinternetaccess.ahardcopyprintpublicationwillalsobeavailableand distributedtothebroaderregionalmarketgrainindustrystakeholders. ValueProposition Duetotheregionaltradeandmarketcorrelation,asubstantivegrainindustrytrade publicationwillsupportexpandedaccesstomarketinformation,intelligence,andsharingof 9 SeeAnnex6forrevenueandcostestimates. 10 SeeAnnex6forrevenueandcostestimates. 23

24 experiencesacrosstheregion.thebroadestdistributionpossiblewillfacilitatediverse accesstothesubstantivecontenttosupporttheeagcmissionofimprovedmarketfunction, supporteagcbrandrecognition,andattractastrongadvertisingbase.thepublication shouldbeavailableinelectronicformforthelargestnationalandregionalplayers;and throughhardcopyforthemediumsizetradeactorswithintheimportantregionalmarkets andcrossjborderareas. KeyActivities Recruitandconveneasmall,focusededitorialcontentcommitteeofEAGCmembers representingdiverseindustryactorstoregularlyrevieweditorialdirectionand providetimelyfeedbackoncontent Developcontentandeditorialstrategytoguidepublication Draftcontentcalendarforfirst6editions(1yearofpublications)(Asample magazinecontentcalendartableisincludedintheannex.) Developadvertisingsalesstrategyandinitiateimplementation Developpartnershipswithstrategiccontentcontributors Identifyandoutlineamentorshiprelationshipwithrelevantmarketintelligenceand analyticalskills(forexample,rabobank,cargill,soyatech,etc.) DeterminetooutsourceorhireinJhouselayoutanddesigncapacity(including acquisitionoftheappropriatesoftware) Negotiatenecessarystrategicpartnershipstofurtherfacilitatecriticaldataand informationinputsnecessaryforhighqualityintelligenceandanalytics including GISweatherandmapping AlignoneJtimemarketinformationandanalyticalreportswithpublicationschedule tosupportcontentdevelopment(seesubsequentsectionregardingonejtimemarket informationandanalyticalreports) Developbrandingstrategy toincludeselectionofpublicationname. Recruitanddevelopadedicatedpublicationcontentmanagerforthepublication whowillberesponsibleforwritingmarketintelligenceandanalyticalpiecesperthe contentstrategyandcontentcalendar,aswellascoordinateothersubmissions. CustomerSegmentandRelationshipsandCriticalPartnerships Distribution Broaddistributionwithhighreadershipisnecessarytoattractadvertising.Distribution willpresentalogisticalchallenge,andshouldbefollowedclosely,particularlythefirstyear, toensuredistributionissuccessfulandreadershipnumbersintheadvertisingbriefsheet areaccurate.asnotedpreviouslyintheproductsdescription,anelectronicformatwillbe availabletograinindustrystakeholders.toensurethebroadestreadership,thedigital formatshouldbeavailableviathewebsiteandvia subscription(allmemberswith shouldreceiveitautomatically.)membersshouldbeencouragedtohavemultiple employeessignuptothe broadcast,whichwillensureregularreceipt(versusrelying oninternaltothecompanyforwarding)andtoallowforbetterstatisticsondistribution.) Thoseabletoaccesselectronicallyrepresentonlyafractionoftheusercustomersegment though;includingonlythelargestgrainactorsandstakeholders. 24

25 Themajorityofgrainindustryactorswhowouldbeinterestedinthesubstantivecontentof aregularregionalgraintradepublicationaresmallandmediumsizetraders,millers,and emergingproducers.thissegmentprefershardcopyformat,sophysicalprintingand distributionintothetargetmarketswillberequired.partnershipstofacilitatedistribution maybeexploredwithorganizationswithcustomeraffinity,forexampleaginput distributorswhosellwarehousingfumigants. Advertising Advertisinghasbeenastrugglewithpreviouslesssubstantivegrainindustrypublications, includingcgaandeagc.advertisingsalesshouldbetargetedastheunderpinningrevenue sourceforthisproposedpublication.thisisonlypossiblewithbroaddistributionand readershipacrossthegrainindustryandastrongadvertisingsalesstrategy.kenyahasthe mostdevelopedmarketingandadvertisingmarketintheregion,withneighboringcountries developingrapidly. Advertisingstrategyshouldbedevelopedalongsidetheeditorialandcontentstrategy,but shouldtargetpotentialadvertisersoutsideofthegrainindustry(aswellasinside)where customeraffinityexists,includingtransport,logistics,technology,communications,and otherservicessuchasfinance.advertisingwilldevelopoverthecourseofthefirstyear, andwillrequiredocumentinganddescribingthereadershipbysegment(typeofgrain actor,geography,size)toattractsubstantiveadvertising. ContentPartnerships EAGCdoesnotpresentlyhavetheinternalhumanresourcestodevelopthecontentofthe proposedpublicationtodayandshouldnotseektocontributeallofthecontentinthe future,ratherincludesomecuratedcontentfromkeycontentpartners.adedicated resourceshouldberesponsiblefordevelopmentofthepublication.thepublicationcontent managershouldseekpartnershipsforregularcontributors,solicitcontent(providing writtencontentguidelines)tooccasionaloronetimecontributors,andensureschedulingof contentalignswithcontentstrategy.regionalpolicydonorjfundedprojectscanprovide timelyandrelevantpolicyanalysispiecestofitcontentandeditorialstrategy;forexample SERAinTanzania.FEWSNETcanassistinrepurposingtheirquarterlyanalyticalpieceinto aregularfeatureinthemagazine.eagcshoulddevelopinjhousecapabilitytoprovidehigh qualitymarketintelligenceandanalyticalcontent;analyzingthebasicmarketdata,adding consultationswithindustrycontacts,anddraftinginsightfulmarketcommentary.whilethe EAGCGrainMarketDataSystemandtheEACRFBSwillprovidesomebasicdatapointsfor consideration,additionalbasicdatamaybeaccessedthroughpartnershipsorthrough purchaseagreements.weatherdataandcropmappingarenecessaryforproduction outlookupdates. RevenueStreams 11 Advertising,attractedbybroaddistributionacrosstheregionalgrainindustry,shouldcover thecostofthepublication.itmaytakeafeweditionstobuildthedistributionandvisibility necessarytoattractadvertisingandsponsorship.thecostmodelassumesapproximately 11 SeeAnnex6forrevenueandcostestimates. 25

26 $15,000inadvertisingwillbenecessarytocoverthedirectcostsofthepublication.Thisis anextremelyaggressiveadvertisingtargetinthenearjterm.$8,000j9,000ismorerealistic, particularlyforthefirstyearoflaunch. 12 Asdistributiongrows,theadvertisingrevenue targetsshouldbeextended.theexistingadvertisingratespublishedintheexistingeagc GRAINpublication,whosecontentanddistributionlimitationshavealreadybeendiscussed, appearinlinewiththekenyanadvertisingmarket;basedononlineresearchand discussionswithmarketingandcommunicationfirmsinvolvedinthekenyapublishing industry. AdvertisingisexpectednottocomeprincipallyfromEAGCgraintradersandprocessors, butgrainhandlingservices,warehousing,relatedagriculturalinputdistributors, agriculturalsupplycompaniesincludinggrainhandlingandstorageequipment,agricultural finance,technologyandcommunicationscompanies,transportationandlogistics,andother supportingservices. CostStructure 13 Adedicatedpublicationmanagershouldberecruited,andhaveanddevelopastrong marketintelligenceandanalyticalskillset.giventheimportanceofthepublicationinthe strategy,adedicatedresourceisadvised.aportionofthisseniorstaffmember stime wouldbesharedtooverseeandmanagethesubsequentproposedproduct,onejtime marketinformationandanalyticalreports.thisisparticularlyimportantforthealignment oftheoutputsofthatworkwiththepublicationandallowfortherepackagingand communicationoftheoutcomes.giventheimportanceofcontentdevelopmentand curation,alongwithadvertisingdevelopment,travelisnotaninsignificantportionofthe budgetgiventheregionalnatureofthepublicationcoverage.layoutanddesignwere quotedtobethemostsignificantportionofthepublicationoriginationbudget.thisshould bereducedinthefuturewiththeacquisitionoftheappropriatepublishingsoftwareand developmentofinjhouselayoutcapacity.therearemanycommunicationsinternscoming 12 Duringthebusinessretreat,theKenyaTransportAssociationwasnotedashavinglauncheda successfulandprofitablesubstantivetradepublication.furtherconsultationsareencouragedto understandtheirexperience,andrevenueandcostexperience. 13 SeeAnnex6forrevenueandcostestimates. 26

27 outofschoolsnowwithsignificantlayoutanddesignexperiencewiththebestpublishing software.movingthelayoutanddesignwouldreducethecostofproducingthepublication significantly.alsotheperunitcostofprintingcomesdownwithmorecopies;encouraging thebroadeningofdistribution. OneMTimeMarketInformationandAnalyticalReportsinareascriticaltoGrain Trade KeyProductsandServices Thereareothermissingmarketinformationpiecesthatareimportantforcontinued developmentandefficiencyofthetrade.whileregularlycollectedandmaintainedmarket informationisalwayspreferable,thegrainindustrywouldreceivesignificantvalueby establishingsomebaselinesforcriticalinformationpointsandtheidentificationofsome keysupportingdrivers.apreliminarylistoftheseoneoffmarketinformationpieceshave beenidentifiedduringtheconsultationprocess,butitisexpectedthatabout4wouldbe identifiedandconductedperyear. Eachmarketinformationandanalyticalreportwillbeindependentwithadefined beginningandend.somemayserveadualadvocacyandmarketinformationpurpose.the identificationofaonejtimemarketcouldoccuroutoftheadvisorycommitteeprocess supportingtheimplementationoftherfbsortheproposedpublication.itcouldalsoarise outoftheidentificationofaninformationoranalyticalgapidentifiedthroughaneagc eventorconference.eagcshouldassumenomorethan4ayear, 14 inordertobestmanage theexecutionandqualityoftheoutput.criteriaforselectingareporttopursueshould include:relevancetoreadershipoftheproposedgraintradepublication(astheoutput wouldberepurposedintocontentforanarticle),atleastsomeprivatesectorsponsorship interest,andabilitytoconveneasmallsteeringcommitteetoincludememberswithahigh levelofinterestintheoutputtoguidethedevelopmentofthetor,guideeagcin overseeingthetechnicalaspectsofthework,andreviewthefinaloutputs. ApreliminarylistofhighdemandquestionsoffersashortJlistforthefirstyear.These include: 15 Ricemarketsegmentation(particularlyvolumeandtradeflow)byorigin, characteristics,andquality(mostimportantintanzania) Productionbaselineforkeygraincrops(mostimportanttostartinKenya) Transportratesandidentificationofbackhaulratekeydriversalongcriticalgrain traderoutes(regional) 14 Theselectionofnomorethan4peryearandthesubsequentdiscussionofoutsourcingthe researchandanalysistopreparethereportsassumesthisasastandjaloneactivityofeagc.tothe extentthateagcmaintainsandfurtherdevelopsinjhouseconsultingcapacity,thismaywarrant revisiting. 15 Thepreliminarylistwasidentifiedduringtheconsultationprocess.Furtherdiscussionswouldbe necessarytobestassessagainsttheselectioncriteria.additionalbackgroundoneachofthislist comingfromtheconsultationisincludedintheannex. 27

28 ValueProposition Manyofthelargestprivatesectorcompanieswouldundertakesimilarworkthemselves, wheretheyhavetheresources.butmanytradersandmediumsizeprivatesector companiesdon thavetheresourcesinjhousetofullytakeontheselargeimportantpiecesof informationcollectionandanalytics.donorsaretypicallythesourceofthesepiecesof informationintheregion,buttheprivatesectordoesnotthenhaveavoiceinthetor, oversightofthework,andformatofthefinaldeliverabletoensuremostvaluefortheir purposes.theseonetimemarketinformationandanalyticalreportsshouldberejpackaged ascontentfortheeagcregionalgraintradepublicationandoffercontentforpresentation atkeyevents.someoftheanalysismayalsosupportspecificadvocacyandpolicyobjectives ofeagc. KeyActivities Eachproductwillstartwiththedevelopmentofadetailedtermsofreferenceand theconveningofasmall,focusedadvisorycommitteeofmembersrepresenting membersandpotentialfunderstoreviewandadviseonthetorandthe subsequentimplementationandfinaldeliverable. Identifyacombinationofprivatesectormembersanddonorstosecureactivity funding CustomerSegmentandRelationshipsandCriticalPartnerships PrivateSectorandDonorswillbothbepayersandusers PrivateSectorwillprincipallydrivetheperformanceofthework PublicSectormustbuyJinandsupportsomeofthecriticalpieces,particularlywhere advocacyandpolicyobjectivesexist RevenueStreams 16 Fundingwillbesecuredinadvanceoftheworkinitiating.Thereissufficientprivatesector supporttosecurecojfundingviasponsorshipfromtheprivatesectorandspecificallyeagc membershipalongsidedonorfunding.privatesectorsponsorshipswillprobablyonlycover about25%ofthecostoftheseassignments.eventhatlevelofprivatesectorsupportcanbe usedtofurtherinfluencedonorswhoshareacommoninterestinprovidinggrantsupport forthework.thekeyquestionsselectedfortheonejtimemarketreportswillbemarket informationoranalyticalareasthatlargeindividualfirmswouldprioritizefortheirown directinvestment,iftheyhadsufficientresources.manywillhavecompletedportionsof theanalysisthemselves,totheextenttheywereable.atthesametime,thegapof informationandanalysisfortheselargemarketquestionsremainsosignificant,that solicitingmultipleprivatesectorsponsorsshouldnotbringoutcompetitiveconflicts betweenprivatefirms.sponsorshiplevelsshouldbeginnosmallerthan$1,000perstudy anditisn texpectedthatanyfirmwouldsponsormorethan$2,500perpieceofwork. Sponsorshipshouldbeclearlynotedinthereport,justasdonorfundingisprominently attributed.itshouldbeclearlycommunicatedthatprivatesectorsponsorshipdoesnot limitaccesstothefinaldeliverable,rathertheresultistheintellectualpropertyofeagc. Anticipatedpublicationshouldbecleartoallfunderspriortoworkinitiation. 16 SeeAnnex6forrevenueandcostestimates. 28

29 CostStructure 17 Itisassumedthatthesemarketinginformationandanalyticalreportswillbeoutsourced witheagcmanagementoftheworkandoutputsmanagedbythemismanagerwith technicalinputandcontributionsfromthepublicationmanager.totheextentthateagc maintainsandfurtherdevelopsinjhouseconsultingcapacity,thismaywarrantrevisiting. Basedonageneralassumptionthatalocalfirmwillbeusedtominimizetheneedfortravel totheregionforexternalexperts,andthateagcwillprovidesignificantmanagement,itis assumedmostoftheseoutsourcedconsultingassignments.theconsultantusedexperience inpricingsimilarstudiesasaguidelineforthecostestimates. 17 SeeAnnex6forrevenueandcostestimates. 29

30 Annex1:Bibliography RATINEndUserSurvey,Ipsos/SynovateforCOMPETE(EATH),February2012 MISAssessmentforEastAfrica,FHI360forUSAID,October2013 EACRFBSManual,CerealandPulsesComponent,UserManualforEATH,June2013 EasternAfrica:AStudyoftheRegionalMaizeMarketandMarketingCosts,WorldBank, December2009 EvaluatingtheImpactonMarketPerformanceofInvestmentsinMarketInformation Systems:MethodologicalChallenges,Staatz,Kizito,Weber,Dembele,MSUStaffPaper,June 2011 SoftCommodityReport WeeklyReport(Sample),CommodityInsightAfrica,July2013 MidJTermReviewofSIDA/EAGCAgreement,2008J2013;ImaniDevelopment(EastAfrica) Ltd.,July2011 EAGCStrategicPlan2013J2017,EAGC,January2012 TwoEAGCGRAINhardcopymagazines;July2011;andOctober2011 EAGCsupplied: EAGCEATHGrantApplicationBudget March2014 CrossJborderMonitoringCosts RATINDraftBudget EAGCRatesonPackagedandHistoricalDatasets RATINBusinessPlan RATINMonthlyExpenses 30

31 Annex2:ListofExternalConsultations 1" William"B"Massawe" "" Managing"Director" Dar"es"Salaam" 2" Willem"Warmenhoven" Quality"Foods" Director" Arusha" 3" Wainaina"Kung'u" Export"Trading"Group" "" Nairobi" 4" Thomas"Awuor" FEWSNET" "" Nairobi" 5" Teddie"Kaiso" Namunkekera" Agroprocessing"Industries" Ltd" Accountant/"0perations" Manager" Kampala" 6" Stevenson"Nzaramba" EAFFU" 7" Stephen"Gudz" 8" Samuel"Kigozi" Dophin"Edge" U.S.Agency"for" International"Development" 9" Richard"Nuwagaba" Grameen"Foundation" Regional"Trade"&" Agribusiness"Advisor" Agriculture"Team"Leader," Regional"Economic" Growth"&"Integration" Office" Business"Development" Manager" Product"Support" Specialist" Nairobi" Nairobi" Kampala" Kampala" 10" Sylvia" Grameen"Foundation" "" Kampala" 11" Jennifer" Grameen"Foundation" "" Kampala" 12" Renalda"R."Kimaro" Rice"Council"of"Tanzania" Manager" Dar"es"Salaam" 13" Pradip"Patel" Export"Trading"Group" Managing"Director" Nairobi" 14" Paloma"Fernandes" Cereal"Millers"Association" Executive"Officer" Nairobi" 15" Otim"Bernard" FARMERS"CENTRE"(U)"LTD" CEO" "" 16" Narcos"Tumushabe" 17" Michael"Winklmaier" Rice"Council"of"Tanzania" Allied"Cereal"Growers" Association" FICA" Kampala" Rice"Value"Chain" Coordinator"a"NAFAKA" Dar"es"Salaam" 18" Marcel"Wambua" Lesiolo" Head"of"Finance" Nakuru" 19" Kaarli"Sundsmo" USAID" Regional"Feed"the"Future" Coordinator"and"Grants" Manager" Nairobi" 20" Julius"Wambura" Frabho" COO" Dar"es"Salaam" 21" John"Jagwe" FarmGain" Team"Leader" Kampala" 22" Isaac"Tallam" EATH" Regional"Grain"Advisor" Nairobi" 23" Isaac"N."Chege" NAFICS" Managing"Director" Nairobi" 24" Hubert"Coffi" A"to"Z"Textiles" Agronomist" Arusha" 25" Graham"Anderson" Kilombero"Rice" Director" Dar"es"Salaam" 26" Genya"C."Genya" Ministry"of"Trade" Market"Information" System"office" "" 27" Evarist"Silayo" SUS"(Union"Stores)" Managing"Director" Dar"es"Salaam" 31

32 28" Donald"Mitchell" SERA"Project" Chief"of"Party" Dar"es"Salaam" Dar"es"Salaam" 29" Dirck"Stryker" AIRD" Chief"Economist" (US"Based)" 30" Darshil"Shah" PISU" "" Nairobi" 31" Claire"Chemoiywa" Farming"Foundation"(ETG)" "" Dar"es"Salaam" 32" Chris"Maongezi" Kilombero"Rice" Marketing"Manager" Dar"es"Salaam" 33" Carl"Tundo" Lesiolo"Grain"Handlers"Ltd" Managing"Director" Nakuru" 34" Anthony"M."Kioko" Cereal"Growers"Association" Chief"Executive"Officer" Nairobi" 35" Andy"Dale" New"Boogaloo"Ltd." Managing"Director" Nairobi"(Arusha)" Amninderiit"Singh"Amu" 21st"century"food" 36" (Billu)" packaging" "" Dar"es"Salaam" 37" Ammar"Jiwaji" Quality"Foods" "" Arusha" 38" Alice"Teyie" Unga" "" Nairobi" 39" Alexander"Dietz" Cargill" Trader" Nairobi" 40" Ruth" Pelum" "" Kampala" 41" Erickson" GroVentures" "" Nairobi" 42" Philip"Idro" Upland"Rice"Millers" "" Kampala" 43" Sharon" Ag"Biz"Directory" "" Kampala" 44" Kawooya"George"Hilliam" Kinoni"Farm" Marketing"Director" Kampala" 45" Bruno"Bakosombe"Matu" Kinoni"Farm" "" Kampala" 46" Paul" Agrinet" "" Kampala" 47" Bernard" Mama"Millers" "" Nairobi" 48" "" Center"for"Sustainable" Development"Initiatives" Managing"Director" Dar"es"Salaam" 49" "" MVIWATA/MVIWAMA" (farmer"org)" "" Arusha" 50" Bruce"Hilier" Bunge" "" Mombasa"(by" phone)" 51" Dominic"Mathenge" Polucon" "" Mombasa"(by" phone)" 52" Fadhil"Haji" Seaboard" "" Mombasa"(by" phone)" 53" Hiten"Kanabar" Capital"Reef" "" Mombasa"(by" phone)" 32

33 Annex3:SampleofPrivatelyProducedRegionalGrainMarket WeeklyAnalyticalNewsletter 33

34 34

35 Annex4:MagazineStorySheet BlankSample EAGCGrainTradePublicationCalendarPlanningChart(Sample) Jan/Feb Mar/Apr May/Jun Jul/Aug Features CountryofFocus Rwanda Uganda Tanzania Kenya CountryFocus Enabling Environment Story&Topic& Here& Story&Topic& Here Story&Topic& Here Story&Topic& Here CountryFocus ProfileofaGrain Business Story&Topic& Here CountryFocus JIndepthproduction andmarketupdate EACRegionalGrain TradeTopic Other Department WorldGrainMarket News(emphasison wheatandpulses,but otheralsogood) RegionalGrain MarketNews(by country) CountrybyCountry MarketAnalysiswith Regionalsummary (RFBS considered)(fewsnet canbesourceevery 35

36 quarter) Processingand MillingNews Transportationand logisticsnews Recentevent reporting UpcomingEvents EAGCorgupdate 36

37 Annex5:PreliminarylistofOneMTimeMarketInformationand AnalyticalReports AsdiscussedintheproposedEAGCproductsandservicessection,thereisamarketneedfor onejtimemarketinformationandanalyticalreports.thefollowingpreliminarylistofthree reporttopicswereidentifiedduringtheconsultationprocess.thesewouldneedtobe furthervettedagainstthecriteriapresentedinthebusinessmodelandfundingidentified beforemovingforward. Ricemarketsegmentation(particularlyvolumeandtradeflow)byorigin, characteristics,andquality(mostimportantintanzania) TheTanzanianricemarkethasmanydifferentvarietalswithdifferentiatedcharacteristics andgradesinthemarket.inaddition,thegovernmentoftanzaniaallowsforperiodic reductioninimporttariffswhendomesticstocksgenerallyareunknown.manyofthe actorsinthericetradeintanzaniadonotseemtoadequatelyknowthemarketshare volumeheldbyeachtypeandgradeofrice.thisinformationisimportantforthetradeto interpretandutilizebasicmarketpriceinformation,adequatelyrespondtomarketdemand, andknowledgablyengagethepublicsectorinpolicydiscussions.thismarketsegmentation studywouldprovideasnapshotofmarketshareandmarketstructureofthetanzanianrice market. Productionbaselineforkeygraincrops(mostimportanttostartinKenya) Alackofreliableandrealisticcommodityproductionisoneofthemostcitedgapsinbasic marketinformation.duringtheconsultation,moststakeholdersagreedthatgenerallya samplingandestimationmethodologytodetermineproductioneitheroverorunderthe previousyear squantityisanadequatemethodology.anythingmorespecificonanannual basiswouldprobablynotbecosteffective.butthelackofanadequatebaselineofoverall grainproductioninalloftheeagccountriescontinuestocreateacriticalinformationgap forallstakeholders.withadequatedesignconsultationandstakeholderbuyjin,eagccould beinapositiontodevelopaproductbaselinewhichcouldbeusedforuptoabout5years andhavepublicsectorbuyjin.thiscouldimprovetherfbsinadditiontoprovideeagc membershipwithmorereliableandrealisticsupplyinformationfordecisionmaking. Transportratesandidentificationofbackhaulratekeydriversalongcriticalgrain traderoutes(regional) Transportandlogistics,asnotedintheassessmentsectionofcurrentEAGCGrainMarket DataSystem,arecriticallyimportanttograinmarketingcostsandidentificationofspatial arbitrageopportunitiesforgraintrade.frequentlyduringtheconsultationconversationsit wasnotedthatitwasimpossibleforsomestakeholderstointerpretandactonthemarket pricedatawithoutalsounderstandingtransportrates.asmuchoftheregionalgraintrade continuestooccurasabaggedtrade,flattransportisextremelyflexible;oftenhaulinga nonjfooditemandimmediatelyafterhaulinggrain.theimportanceofbackhaulrate opportunitiesforgrainflowwasnotedinanumberofconversationswithoutthe 37

38 stakeholdersknowingreliablywhatunderlyingproductorproductmovementcyclewere drivingthechangesinbackhaulrates.thisassessmentproposesinitiallyaddingtransport ratesforatleast6importanttransportroutestothegrainmarketdatasystem.the selectionofthetransportroutestobeincludedshouldbedrivenbyaninjdepthstudyof transportratesalongimportantgrainflowroutes,andidentificationofimportantbackhaul ratedriversandwhichroutesareimpactedbyshiftsinbackhaulrates.thisstudywouldbe necessarypriortoselectingtransportroutesforthedatasystem.inandofitselfthough, thisstudywouldaddconsiderablemarketintelligencetotheindustrybylookingat transportroutes,rates,andbackhauldriversspecificallyfromagraintradeperspective. 38

39 Annex6:RevenueandCostEstimatesforProposedProductsand Services 39

40 EAGC%Grain%Market%Data%System% Cost Summary Salaries Unit Quantity Rate Monthly Annual 15% EAGCMISManager monthly ,010 MISandDataSpecialist 60% monthly ,640 MarketEnumerators(withairtimeanddirectODCs) market ,400 64,800 CrossMBorderTradeEnumerators border point ,500 18,000 TransportEnumerators transport route ,500 18, ,450 Travel MISandDataSpecialisttovisit6monitors/yearfor trainingfollowmup trip 6 3,000 1,500 18,000 18,000 Meetings TrainingNewMonitors training 1 25,000 2,083 25,000 25,000 OtherDirectCosts ITmaintenance monthly 1 1,200 1,200 14,400 14,400 TotalAnnual Costs 174,850 Total Revenus Sales

41 HistoricalDataPackages dataset ,000 GrantsandCostRecoveryNecessary CostCenterExpensesminusRevenues 165,850 TotalAnnual Revenues 174,850 EAC%Regional%Food%Balance%Sheets% Cost Summary Salaries Unit Quantity Rate Monthly Annual 50% EAGCMISManager monthly 1 2,225 2,225 26,700 MISandDataSpecialist 40% monthly ,760 32,460 Travel Travelof2EAGCstafftoNationalFBSCmeetings meetings 8 1, ,600 9,600 Meetings NationalFoodBalanceSheetCommitteeMeetings meeting 10 4,500 3,750 45,000 45,000 OtherDirectCosts ITmaintenance monthly 1 1,200 1,200 14,400 14,400 TotalAnnual 101,460 41

42 Costs Total Revenus GrantsandCostRecoveryNecessary CostCenterExpensesminusRevenues 101,460 TotalAnnual Revenues 101,460 EAGC%Regional%Grain%Trade%Publication% Cost Summary Salaries Unit Quantity Rate Monthly Annual 15% EAGCMISManager monthly ,010 EAGCMarketAnalysisandPublicationManager 80% monthly 1 3,560 3,560 42,720 50,730 Travel Regionaltravel:developcontent,partnerships, advertising peredition 6 3,000 1,500 18,000 18,000 OtherDirectCosts LayoutandDesign peredition 1 1,200 1,200 7,200 Printing percopy ,500 4,500 Distribution percopy ,000 20,700 TotalAnnual Costs 89,430 Total Revenus 42

43 Advertising peredition 6 15,000 7,500 90,000 TotalAnnual Revenues 90,000 OneATime%Market%Information%and%Analytical%Reports%in%areas%critical%to%Grain%Trade% Cost Summary Salaries Unit Quantity Rate Monthly Annual 20% EAGCMISManager monthly ,680 EAGCMarketAnalysisandPublicationManager 20% monthly ,680 21,360 Travel FinalizeTORandconfirmfunding report 4 3,000 1,000 12,000 12,000 OtherDirectCosts OutsourceMarketInformationCollectionandAnalytical Report report 4 50,000 16, , ,000 TotalAnnual Costs 233,360 Total Revenus PrivateSectorStudySponsorship report 4 15,000 5,000 60,000 Donorsponsorshipandgrants report 4 43,340 14, ,360 TotalAnnual Revenues 233,360 43